AJ: Sox, After Deadline, Face Steep Climb

My, how things have changed around Boston since the Red Sox won the World Series in 2004 and 2007!

The Red Sox just did virtually nothing at thee Trading Deadline and no one seems to care.   This is even more striking because the team has one of the better starting pitching staffs in the game.  One could argue that whenever your team has starters this good, you should try extra hard to find the talent to win it all.   Yet, the Red Sox organization, strikingly,  chose to make no significant trades for desparately-needed help in its bullpen or the rest of its lineup. 

Entering this season, Sox officials seemed to hint that they knew it’d be a hard, “transition” year for the Red Sox.  GM Theo Epstein made an off-the-cuff remark about 2010 being a “bridge” year, and, while he tried to backtrack, the remark foreshadowed much of what has happened this season.  Of course, Epstein could not foresee all the injuries that would hurt the team.    Yes, so many players have been injured that one could conclude the team would be unlikely to overcome that……but, I strongly believe that it’s not that simple.

You see, the Red Sox brass has decided that when the team gets all its injured players back (Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jason Varitek are still out) they’ll have a good enough lineup to compete with the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees.

I disagree.  I think that the 2010 Red Sox, by not adding talent at today’s Trading Deadline, have all but thrown in the towel on this season.  The team simply lacks the talent to make up so many games;  in fact, I just don’t think they’re an “elite” team right now.  The Red Sox – as to today (7/31) are eight games behind the Yanks and seven behind the Rays in the all-important loss column.  This Sox team simply has less talent than the Rays or Yanks and perhaps the only way they’d even appear more competitive against either would be in a playoff series – when starting pitching matters more.

The Sox today traded relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez to the San Francisco Giants for prospects.  It’s about time they acknowledged how much Ramirez has hurt the team with his subpar outings.  The Sox acquired Texas Rangers’ catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a player past mentioned as being on the Sox radar.  However, Saltalamacchia, who was viewed as a promising young player back in 2007, has experienced some setbacks – including an injury – and has been playing in the Rangers minor-league system in 2010.   The Red Sox also designated part-time outfielder Jeremy Hermida for assignment and called up a hot-hitting minor-league outfielder, Ryan Kalish.

 At the end of the day, though, I cannot overlook the fact that from April on, this Red Sox team has had a terrific starting rotation that has been surrounded by a lineup too average to contend for a championship.   Yes, Adrian Beltre has performed much, much better than expected.  He’s having a fantastic year.  Yes, David Ortiz overcame a poor start (again) to hit much better.  But, overall, the team’s hitting  doesn’t compare to that of the Yankees, Rays or others. 

I know the stats show the Red Sox are among the tops in “Runs Scored” and others, but, check how they’ve done against teams with winning records or the best teams in divisions.   The Sox belt mediocre pitchers, but, often get shut down quite easily by good pitching.

In the end, I feel that Epstein and his colleagues should be held more accountable for the fortunes of the 2010 Sox, and, eventually, if the Sox fall short, more scrutiny will be directed toward management.  Meanwhile, what’s become more clear is that the fans, and, even members of the media around Boston are operating in such a radically different context than pre-2004 that the judgements and sentiments about a “transition” season such as 2010 stand in sharp contrast to the past.

 Even the television ratings for Red Sox games have dropped substantially.  People seem detached about this team.  Many feel it’s a boring group – with good reason.  Maybe it really is a lot easier for all of us Sox fans to survive a season or two like 2010 now.

There was something uniquely fun about rooting for the long-suffering Sox to win their first World Series since 1918.   We’re still adjusting to the new world of being Red Sox fans who have witnessed recent championships. 

Regardless, I still wish the Red Sox had picked up a couple of good players today.  And I still hate the Yankees (who, annoyingly, added good players!)  Some things have not changed.

AJ: Red Sox In Predictable Nosedive

I cannot say I’m surprised by the Red Sox recent string of losses.  In fact, I can say:  “I told you so…,” to a large extent, because my posts from the start of this 2010 season have consistently featured my strong doubts about the staying power of this Red Sox team. 

The team still has time to recover, and, possibly, make the wild card, or, even, catch the New York Yankees, if the Bombers run into horrible luck for a change.  However, I think the odds are overwhelmingly against the Red Sox and the evidence of that is likely to keep showing up on the field.  First, the rash of injuries plaguing the ballclub is really catching up to the Sox.  Their daily lineup, which does not include Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez or Jacoby Ellsbury, continues to score too few runs – particularly in the clutch – to qualify as a team that will contend in the playoffs.

The Red Sox have lost 10 of their last 14 games and are now 7 games behind the Yankees (8  in the loss column) in the American League East, and,  4.5 games behind the second-place Tampa Bay Rays, who currently lead the Wild Card race.   The Red Sox have lost 5 of their 7 games since the All-Star break, and, not scored more than 4 runs in their last 8 games, the Boston Globe reported on July 22.  The team’s hitting has bottomed-out in the absence of Pedroia and Martinez.  In addition, David Ortiz, since winning the home-run derby at the All-Star festivities, is 3 for 25 with 10 strikeouts since the All-Star break, Nick Cafardo reported in his July 22 colum in the Globe.

What’s amazing is that the Red Sox have done as well as they have despite all their injuries!  They could easily be 12 or 15 games behind the Yankees.  Adrian Beltre, who is having an unexpected, sensational season as a hitter, has carried this team for a long stretch.  Beltre is now batting .339 with 16 HRs and an OPS of .937.  While Beltre and Ortiz were hot – and Pedroia, Martinez and Kevin Youkilis were all hitting – the team had just enough punch to win games.   I’d argue, however, that even then, the team lacked sufficient contact and power hitting to mount a real challenge to the Yankees, or, probably, the Rays too – if the Rays can hold it together.

So, what the Sox do at the July 31st trading deadline will, again, go a long way in determining if they have any chance to get back into this race.  It will give us a glimpse of whether General Manager Theo Epstein really thinks this team has genuine potential to make – and succeed in the – the playoffs.  Baseball observers around Boston seem to agree that Epstein is not likely to make a blockbuster trade, partly because he wants to hang onto the team’s best minor-league prospects, and, perhaps partly because he may not be able to find players available who match up with the team’s urgent needs right now.  Most seem to expect Theo to get a relief pitcher and maybe another backup player.   What a far cry from the off-season speculation about the Red Sox getting San Diego slugger Adrian Gonzalez at the trading deadline!  The Padres are doing way too well, as it turns out, to part with “A-Gon.” 

Oh, well……..It looks like this season may get boring awfully fast.   The only route the Sox can take to beating the odds now?  Their starting pitching rotation – which is finally intact with the return of long-injured Josh Beckett tomorrow – has the potential to carry the team for weeks.   Do I think it will happen?  No.   Why?  The Sox hitting remains mediocre – with or without their missing players in the lineup.   I’ve heard all season about the Red Sox leading the league in “Runs Scored” and other hitting categories and I believe these stats have proven one of my main baseball arguments:  That hitting stats can be incredibly misleading.   Sure, the Red Sox have put up high run totals against the lousy and average teams, but, if you check their run totals against the best teams, they’ve often struggled to produce two or three runs a game.   Stats can be meaningless!

I’ll illustrate it further by looking at a player who I love to complain about:  JD Drew.  Once again, Drew, who earns $14 million a year – the highest salary for all Sox position players – is having a mediocre season in 2010.   He’s done his usual good job as a right-fielder, gracefully getting to flyballs.   But, Drew, again, often has failed to get many “big hits.”   As of July 22, Drew is batting .270 with 45 RBIs.   Shortstop Marco Scutaro is one of several players with more hits than Drew.  Dustin Pedroia, who has played in 73 games, has 86 hits while Drew, who has played in 85 games, has 77 hits.    So, fine, Drew may not stink, but, he’s sure as hell not earning his $14 million team-high salary! 

I’ll harp on it some more.  JD Drew typifies what’s wrong with the 2010 Red Sox and the direction the team has gone under Theo Epstein the past few seasons.  Theo is too in awe of stats and pays too little attention to human factors.  The most glaring example:   Theo never saw how good a hitter Mike Lowell was and has seemed to have minimal appreciation of Lowell’s role in the clubhouse.   Theo got Beltre mainly for his defense, but, then Beltre fit in superbly with the team and has surprised everyone with his production.   Theo looked at Dodger closer Eric Gagne’s record and figured he’d just continue to pitch well in Boston, but, Gagne lost his confidence immediately and was terrible.  I could give other examples, but Drew is, by far, the best one.  Theo just gushes about Drew and seems to argue continually that he makes an outstanding contribution.   The only problem is it’s just not true.   Drew has been good at times, but, overall played way, way below his salary and much worse than the adjectives and adverbs Epstein applies to him.

When you reflect on Epstein’s career as GM, it seems hard to dispute that his best, boldest move was to trade Nomar Garciaparra in the middle of the 2004 season for Montreal Expos shortstop Orlando Cabrera and Minnesota Twins first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz.  Back then, he did what was necessary to help the team win.  Since then, some of his moves have seemed aimed at building his personal favorite “fantasy baseball team” or something.  So, if he just likes JD Drew, he’ll keep defending him – whether or not Drew is earning his salary.

At times, Epstein seems very realistic and practical.  At other times, he seems in some denial about the talents of his players and team.

Either way he’s perceiving the 2010 Red Sox, they face a steep, uphill battle to contend for the playoffs.

AJ: Ellsbury Controversy Is Typical Boston Blather

Only in Boston.  I’ve been hearing these phony “trumped-up” sports stories my whole life following the Red Sox.  The sports media take a minor topic and inflate it, twist it and redefine it into a “serious” item for sports talk shows and columnists to dwell on for many days.

Such is the case currently with centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury’s rib injuries.  Ellsbury broke several ribs back in April when he collided with Red Sox third baseman Adrian Beltre during a game.  He’s been recovering ever since and is expected to rejoin the team within the next few weeks. 

So, what’s the controversy?  A few talk show hosts and columnists have raised questions about:  a) whether Ellsbury is “soft” and should have recovered faster or been willing to return by now and play hurt;  b) why Ellsbury chose to recuperate and work out at for the past month at the Athletes’ Performance Institue (API) in Arizona instead of rehabilitating with his teammates;  c) why Ellsbury – perhaps with the advice of agent Scott Boras – chose to publicly air his disagreements and dissatisfaction with the team’s doctors over how his injury was diagnosed and treated.

My reaction?  This is not a big deal.   Yeah, maybe it’s taken longer than some expected for Ellsbury’s ribs to heal.  But, if he’s hurt, he’s hurt.  No matter what details emerge about any behind-the-scenes dynamics, the bottom line is that Ellsbury cannot play until he’s ready.   He tried a premature comeback weeks ago and suffered a setback.  He needed more time for his ribs to heal.   He has not been a “problem player.”   The team can use his help right now.   And, even though Ellsbury chose to work out at API rather than with the team – he did so with the team’s approval – making this, in my view, a fairly petty matter.

What bothers me is the extent of time that has been devoted to Ellsbury’s situation on sports talk radio over the past two or three weeks, particularly the past few days.   Callers and hosts have steadily criticized Ellsbury without having all the facts.  Plus, the facts they’ve cited do not amount to much of a substantive complaint.   So, why do people dump all over a player and exaggerate things and vent obnoxiously?  They seem to use players – in this case, Ellsbury – as a scapegoat for venting their own personal frustrations.  The talk show hosts keep raising Ellsbury purely to drum up some entertainment with some conflict at the center.

Then, there has been the predictable criticism of Scott Boras, Ellsbury’s agent.  Many critics of Ellsbury claim that Boras is behind Ellsbury’s prolonged recovery and that Boras typically advises clients to not play until they are 100 percent ready – especially before they become eligible for free agency.  I’m not a big fan of Boras, but, in this case, I think he, too, is receiving more criticism than deserved.

I don’t know the facts.  Perhaps Ellsbury is being perfectionistic about wanting to be completely healed before he tries playing.  But, why are fans and radio talk shows wasting so much time on this topic?  Only Ellsbury knows what he needs to feel ready.  There is no evidence that he’s a “slacker” or a guy who does not want to play and help the team.  There has been speculation – not backed up publicly – that when Ellsbury was in the minors – he had a reputation among some, for avoiding playing when he was hurt, but might have been able to play.   I’ve heard that speculation from only a couple of individuals – either a talk show host or a baseball writer.

The irony is that Ellsbury is over-rated in Boston.  Often fans and media have seemed to perceive Ellsbury as more skilled than he is.

In reality, he’s an average leadoff hitter with an average to mediocre on-base-percentage.  He’s improved as a hitter, but, is still average.  He still has trouble hitting breaking pitches, despite a bit of improvement.  He’s a fairly good fastball hitter.  He’s a very good centerfielder who makes so many diving catches that, at times, he appears to be an incredible, outstanding fielder.  And, as everyone knows, he’s one of the fastest, best baserunners in the game with one of the highest numbers of “stolen bases” most years.  

Ellsbury chose to speak up when he was puzzled and disappointed by the opinions given by the Red Sox doctors who originally diagnosed his rib injuries.  At one early moment, when he requested an MRI of his ribs, a Red Sox doctor or representative replied:  “We don’t do MRIs of bruises…”   That remark, understandably, bothered Ellsbury, particularly when the MRI later showed multiple fractures in his ribs.

I am a big fan of the “Felger and Massarotti Show” on “98.5 – The Sports Hub” an excellent sports talk show in Boston;  however, I’ve really disagreed with both hosts – Mike Felger and Tony Massarotti – for devoting so much time to discussing and criticizing Ellsbury on recent shows.   Felger often likes to question if a player is “soft” or not and seems to think athletes should always “suck it up” and play with almost any injury.  Some of this amounts to ludicrous “pseudo – “macho” banter.  By the way, I wish Felger and Massarotti were more critical of JD Drew for missing so many games rather than dumping disproportionate criticism on Ellsbury.  Drew, at least, has made it a practice to miss uncountable games when some felt he could play while Ellsbury has had this one episode  as his only major example.

I have not been a huge fan of Jacoby Ellsbury in the past, but, when he comes back, I’ll be rooting for him more than usual because of all the unwarranted criticism and whining directed at him in recent weeks.   Go get em, Jacoby!

AJ: Overachieving Red Sox Face Turning Point

The  2010 Red Sox have surprised many fans across New England by merely playing so well despite all their injuries.  Yet, we baseball fans have seen teams like this before:  They overachieve and keep plugging along beyond anyone’s expectations, and, then, suddenly, they take a dip downward.   After they fall back to more of a “normal” position, people see their “high” period with more perspective.

This 2010 team seems positioned to run out of gas in the second half of the season.  I mean:  How long can Adrian Beltre hit out of his mind?  Won’t Big Papi be due for at least some slump in August or September?  Won’t their “fill-in” players start to hurt them more?

Further, what about their bulllpen, which is in tatters now?  Closer Jonathan Papelbon and setup pitcher Daniel Bard are the only reliable relievers, and, even Papelbon has been a bit subpar this year.  Ramon Ramirez has, again, not been steady, and, in my view, would be better replaced than used more.  Manny Delcarmen is injured and has been unpredictable due, mainly, to the more fragile condition of his arm.  Hideki Okajima has been mediocre most of the season – a downward trend for him.  In the past Oki has had ups and downs, but rallied, and, of course, in his first year, 2007, he was brilliant and significantly helped the team win it all.

It seems the Red Sox have gotten little breaks and unexpected contributions from fill-ins like Daniel Nava just enough to make their impressive run in this first half of 2010.  I do not see this success continuing until September without several changes being made by General Manager Theo Epstein.   Once again, as always seems the case, Theo faces interesting circumstances at the July 31st trading deadline.   Does he decide to do little and let things play out with the current roster- knowing they’ve proven to be an entertaining team that has played “over their heads”?   After all, Theo had to know the odds were against even the starting 2010 Red Sox going far into the playoffs?  In this sense, Theo may be a bit “off the hook” if he does little but the team goes south.   He can say:  “Hey, they were in the hunt with subs and I thought with the return of Josh Beckett, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and others to the lineup, the team would do better and stay in contention….”      On the other hand, Theo knows that this team has flaws and holes likely to haunt them before late September, when the race will probably be decided.

The Sox, despite their surprising stats in “runs scored” and other hitting categories, still need more pop in their lineup.  A bona fide slugger would do wonders for them.   I don’t know who they could offer in a trade.  After another miserable performance last night, I’m at a point where I’d be open to trading Daisuke Matsuzaka!  I don’t think teams would take Dice-K for his annual salary of $8 million or so.   (What a disappointment Matsuzaka has been this year!)  Despite the non-stop speculation of baseball writers last winter that the Sox would try to trade for San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez in 2010, that seems impossible now because the Padres are having a good year.

It’s very hard to predict Epstein’s moves this July 31.  He’s got players who are performing or not performing beyond his expectations.  Mike Cameron, who he traded for, will be hindered all season by his adominal injury;  in  fact, he seems to hurt the team when he tries to play.  My guess is that Theo will try to get one or two relief pitchers for the bullpen.  I’d love to see him roll the dice and get a slugger.  There are a few minor-league players doing well and he could consider two or three to package in a trade. 

It has been an unpredictable season in the AL East in some ways.  Tampa Bay has returned to Earth.  They seemed to be crashing downward, but, it’s hard to say if they’ll stay at the top or keep playing below their talent, which remains good enough for them to contend until the very end.  Right now, I’d stand on my prediction that the Rays and Yankees will finish ahead of the Red Sox…….but, I would have never guessed the Sox would be right on the tail of both teams.    If — if, the Sox acquire a quality player or two at the trading deadline and decide to “go for it,” I see them having a chance.   If they stand pat, I see them collapsing during the second half.

I will say that Beckett could be one wild card that makes a difference.  I’m not referring to the same Beckett coming back and pitching erratically.  I’m referring to a super-motivated Beckett returning with an unusual strength as the second half starts.   Beckett is a fiery guy who gets himself charged up to meet goals, and, I have a feeling he’ll be very determined to rattle off a bunch of wins for the team in August and September.  I don’t know if his worn-down, weary arm will allow him to, but, I think the long rest this year may - may lead to him pitching much, much better in the second half.  If Beckett is on fire and Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz continue to pitch outstandingly, then maybe the Sox can make things interesting after Labor Day.

 They’ve seeemed to barely win many of their games this year.  They’ve scored less runs than I expected in many games and their bullpen has often had to hold narrow leads.   A new home-run hitter positioned after David Ortiz and perhaps before Kevin Youkilis could change the dynamics of the whole team and make the Sox put a scare into the Yankees and Rays.

If they remain the same, I’m afraid they’ll go down as a feisty, overachieving team that ran out of gas in the dog days of August.

AJ: Red Sox Resilience Propels Resurgence

All right.  I admit it.  I’m amazed the Red Sox have rocketed back into the AL East race.  

I did not think this team had it in them to go 24-8 since winning a huge May 19th game vs. the NY Yankees.   And the Sox did this without Jacoby Ellsbury, their starting centerfielder and Josh Beckett, one of their frontline starting pitchers, who last pitched May 18th, and has been on the disabled list ever since.

I didn’t imagine that David Ortiz could belt the ball all over the yard in the past 6 weeks.  Despite a horrible April, Big Papi now has 15 HRs and 46 RBIs.   Talk about a turnaround!  I was one of many who mistakenly thought Papi was probably “done.”   I didn’t foresee Adrian Beltre seeming to go back in time and become one of the hottest hitters in the American League.  He’s batting .337 with 10 HRs and 48 RBIs as of today.   Victor Martinez has been on a tear, hitting like he used to in hot streaks on the Indians.  Kevin Youkilis has played like the MVP of the team.  He’s certainly been the steadiest all-around hitter and fielder.  Dustin Pedroia slumped a bit after hurting his knee, but is spraying hits to all fields more recently and has been solid in 2010.

Meanwhile, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz have been terrific.  Buchholz just won his 10th game and is being eyed for the AL All-Star team.

There have been an array of pleasant surprises:  backup outfielders like Darnell McDonald, Jeremy Hermida and Daniel Nava.  Marco Scutaro has hit decently in the leadoff spot in place of Ellsbury.  Setup reliever Daniel Bard has been outstanding.  (Bard has been overused, however, and if this continues, I really worry he’ll be “gassed” by September and suffer from arm fatigue).

The Red Sox defeted top teams on a tough road trip a few weeks ago, going  9-4.  Then, they just went 8-1 on a homestand, sweeping the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers in interleague series.   After just sweeping the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Sox are in a virtual tie with the Tampa Vay Rays for second place in the most competitive American League East.

I still do not believe the Red Sox are talented enough to end up ahead of the Yankees, and, it’ll be very tough to catch the Rays too…….but, the team has proven a lot in the past month and a half.  They’ve proven they can find a variety of ways to win games, whether low-scoring types or games requiring major late-inning comebacks.  They seem to have at least some mental toughness that has helped them beat the best teams and the worst. 

In addition, the Red Sox have hit the ball far, far better than I though possible so far.   Their team batting average today was tops in the American League at .278 — two percentage points ahead of the Yankees and 19 points ahead of the Rays.  The Sox are among leaders in several hitting categories. 

I must say I think these hitting stats are misleading.  I think the Sox have put up big hitting numbers against certain mediocre teams while having many low-scoring affairs vs. many teams too.   I think the stats would back up my opinion, but, you know what?  Even if they don’t, I simply do not believe the Red Sox will remain this good a hitting team.   I think a few of their hot hitters like Beltre and Ortiz are likely to cool off.   I think their back-up outfielders, while they’ve allowed the team to “get by” so far, will hurt the team the longer they have to play.   Will Ellsbury perform after he returns sometime around the All-Star break?  I doubt he’ll suddenly catch fire.  I think his injured ribs will negatively impact him the rest of the year.

As always, it’ll be fascinating to discover what the team does at the trading deadline.  I still think they need another power hitter if they are to really make at least the wild card and go anywhere in the playoffs.  Yet, the odds of the team not acquiring a hitter seem just as good as the team getting a hitter.   How much does the Red Sox want to invest in trying to win a world championship in 2010?  Up until now, it seemed, the team had set limits on what resources they’d be willing to invest this year, but, now, with this undermanned, gritty team scrapping its way back into the AL East race, will that propel GM Theo Epstein into purusing a big-time slugger by July 31st?

It’s hard to say.  The health and success of Josh Beckett when he returns in the not-to-distant future might help Epstein make decisions at mid-season.  If Beckett is rejuvenated and appears poised to pitch well into September, it would bolster the pitching and the whole team.  After all, with Lester and Buchholz performing like aces and John Lackey doing decently, but likely to improve and Daisuke Matsuzaka doing well recently, Beckett’s return could make the Sox more formidable in any series.

Regardless of what happens from now until October, the 2010 Red Sox have demonstrated a feistiness and versatility that many fans – including this blogger – did not think possible back in early May.  

I hope in late September, that I won’t be recalling these first-half heroics as the highlights of the season, but, rather, the start of an extraordinary run into the playoffs.   Go Sox.

AJ: Can Red Sox Play Well for the Long Haul?

The Red Sox have played like a better team of late.  Pitchers Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, along with a rejuvenated David Ortiz, have carried them.   The Sox, after a terrible start,  have climbed back into the race for the AL East.  Lester and Buchholz have both been on unstoppable “rolls” and Big Papi was MLB’s “Player of the Month” in May, batting .363. hitting 10 HRs and knocking in 27 RBIs.

So, why am I so unconvinced today that they will play good, consistent baseball for enough of the summer to keep competing with the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees?

I have quite a few reasons, actually: 

1)  The Red Sox need more of their players to step up and share the load.  All season, the Sox have relied on just a handful of players while overcoming large gaps in their lineup.  Eventually, JD Drew and others have to hit better or the team needs to add a hitter.  One cannot expect Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, and, the ”hot and cold” Ortiz to do all the hitting.  

2)  John Lackey needs to find his old “heater.”  Lackey, who kept the team in the game yesterday against the lowly Baltimore Orioles, still has not found his top form after two months.  Though no one is discussing it, I think there is something seriously wrong with Lackey’s fastball.   I’ve watched just enough of him to notice that he’s relied more heavily on his excellent curveball this year than he has in the past.   Lackey normally has had a terrific moving fastball, which he can locate with pinpoint control.   His velocity in the past few seasons has been in the low 90′s, but, with that zip that keeps the ball spinning as it crosses the plate.  This year, I’ve noticed way too many of Lackey’s fastballs float to the plate, looking more “straight” and hittable than usual.  Yesterday, I was thinking about this after watching a couple of innings  of the game.  I got into my car and heard Red Sox announcer Dave O’Brian basically say:  “Lackey’s throwing the ball at about 89 mph or less today,” noting his velocity was particularly low.   So, what’s going on with Lackey?  Is he hurt, perhaps?  Can he get his speed back by adjusting his motion?

Whatever it is, I feel Lackey has to demonstrate to me that there is nothing wrong with his arm.  Without his old, sharp fastball, he will continue to be average.  And, despite his 6-3 record, Lackey has been, unmistakeably, “average.”  His ERA is 4.72.   He’s walking many more hitters than usual.  Further, Lackey has pitched only one or two games that could be considered “excellent” all year.

3)  The Sox Mediocre “Fill-in” Outfielders.  Darnell McDonald contributed to a few wins with his bat when he first was called up in April to replace the injured Jacoby Ellsbury, but, he’s a sub-par outfielder, and, over time, revealed as a very limited hitter.   Billy Hall, the Sox’ utiliity player, is a poor outfield and another weak hitter.  The Red Sox badly miss Ellsbury, who has missed almost the whole year after fracturing his ribs in a collision with Adrian Beltre in April.  Ellsbury seems determined to avoid returning until he’s close to full strength.   The question lingers whether he’ll feel strong enough all season to return to form.  Perhaps not, and, that’d leave the Sox with a mediocre outfield.  The third outfielder JD Drew is having a typically “quiet” season.  Typically, as in past seasons, Drew often has disappointing at-bats that end with dribblers to second-base.   Occasionally, he looks terrific at the plate, belting a few line-drive hits, but, then returns to his sub-par play.

4)  Can David Ortiz keep hitting well?  Big Papi’s bat quieted down over the weekend vs. the Orioles.   He was incredible in May, having one of his best months ever as a hitter as he bolted out of his miserable April slump.  However, I just doubt that Papi can be counted on as this kind of slugger through September.  I can see him having the same kind of season as in 2009, when he hit “mistake pitches” against average teams well while hitting more inconsistently vs. teams like the Rays or Yanks.   Right now, Youkilis is, by far, the best hitter on this team.  Youk can hit for contact and power;  he has a fantastic eye, and, he walks a lot.   The Red Sox need another consistent slugger to stay in the race until October.  Can Theo Epstein find one at the trading deadline?  Who would the new hitter replace?  These are large uncertainties.  Without more punch, however, I see the Sox relying too much on great pitching and winning close, low-scoring games.  That’s not a formula for success.

5) Josh Beckett’s Status Has Gone from “Shaky/Questionable” to “Poor/Uncertain.”  On May 19, Beckett was placed on the Disabled List due to back problems, but, the cause of greater concern is that in late May, he tried throwing a bullpen session and experienced pain behind his shoulder.  The team wisely shut Beckett down after concern that he might exacerbate his problems by altering his motion, but, now, he’s not expected back on the mound until late June at the earliest.  Even then, do we know what’s up with Beckett?  He’s suffered injuries or ailments during the end of the past two seasons, and, one has to wonder if his arm may require more attention or rest.    Beckett’s health is key.  If he’s in top form, it makes the Sox rotation potentially dazzling.  Without him, they’re more vulnerable to the bad starts of Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield.   Now, Beckett is 1-1 with a 7.29 ERA.

6)  Daisuke Matsuzaka still does not look in his top form – either.   I already raised questions about Lackey’s fastball.  Well, Dice-K’s fastball has been outright lousy in several games, and, he’s been knocked around as a result.  What’s up with his arm?  Matsuzaka, when he arrived to the Sox a few years ago, could often throw a 94 mph fastball – with movement – when he had to, but, now, he cannot keep his velocity that high at all, or maintain the same zip.  He often throws his fastball at 90, 91 or, even drops occasionally to 89 mph.  Because he gets behind in the count SO often, this makes Matsuzaka much more hittable.   I must say I’m tired of Dice-K repeating his same patterns – walking too many hitters, building very high pitch counts in the early innings, and, overall, hindering his team’s chances rather than keeping the team in games longer.  If he keeps these habits and cannot improve, I’d consider trading him.   A pitcher or any player must show a capacity to adjust and try to improve.  Dice-K, after his disastrous 2009,  needs to show that now – not later.

 7)  The bullpen needs significant bolstering.  Setup pitcher Daniel Bard and closer Jonathan Papelbon – while both experiencing occasional “bumps in the road,” have performed very well, overall.  They’ve been quite reliable, particularly in closing out wins.   Manny Delcarmen, in large part, has found his old form and pitched decently as a “7th-inning guy. ” (But Delcarmen felt tightness in his back yesterday, so, we’ll have to see if he’s OK)  Hideki Okajima has really struggled in 2010.  It was unsurprising when he gave up the winning hit yesterday to Nick Markakis.  I don’t know what Okajima’s problems are, but, I hope he can identify problems in his mechanics to fix rather than discover more serious issues.  Either Okajima, a bona fide “star” in the Sox’ 2007 run, has to improve or the Sox might have to add a pitcher of two to their bullpen, anyway.   They simply have too few dependable arms and could use a lefthanded reliver.  (like Billy Wagner!)

The Red Sox either need to upgrade aubstantially by adding players at the trading deadline, and/or, a few of their current players need to play much better.   Can JD Drew suddenly play a lot better?  I doubt it.  It’s time for the front office to get creative and add a good player or two.

AJ: Red Sox Reach High Point

The Red Sox, to my surprise, have just swept the Tampa Bay Rays.  The Sox consecutively defeated Rays’ “stud” pitchers Wade Davis, James Shields and Matt Garza, who has dominated them for two years.   That sweep is part of a very impressive 13-game road trip, when the Red Sox went 9-4 against several of the best teams in baseball.   Suddenly, this team looks quite good.  I didn’t know they had it in them to sweep the Rays.

The question is:  Will the team play more like this “red-hot” team of the past two weeks, or, more like the mediocre team of the first 35 games of the 2010 season?  The truth may be in the middle, but, hopefully a bit slanted toward the recent trend.

The Sox have won eight of their last nine games.  They won two of three in a series with the Phillies before sweeping the Rays.  They swept a two-game series from the Minnesota Twins.  They split a tw0-game series with the NY Yankees and they won one of three vs.  the Detroit Tigers to start the trip.   Their pitching has been outstanding.  Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are pitching terrifically.  Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched a brilliant, near no-hitter.

So, it raises the question:  Does this 2010 Red Sox team have to pitch in “lights out” form to rise to the top in the AL East and beyond?  

My short answer is,  basically, YES.   I’ve said all along that this team would depend heavily on top-notch pitching because its hitting is not as good as its rivals in the AL East.  But, I do not think they can expect the pitching to remain as good as it was in the past two weeks.

Yet, there is another factor in the mix and his name is David Ortiz.  Big Papi has not only snapped out of his lengthy, troubling slump, but, he’s helping carry the team with several big, clutch hits and home runs in recent days.  He’s been hitting like his old self.  Can this keep up?  I doubt it, but, Ortiz has looked so much better lately that it’s possible to imagine him doing at least as well as he did in 2009, when he finished with 99 RBIs and 28 HRs.  Ortiz had been so good in past years that his 2009 performance seemed “quiet” and subpar, partly because he got more of his hits against bad teams and non-clutch moments.  However, right now, if he could put up similar numbers in 2010, it’d certainly seem acceptable compared to how he looked in April.  Some, including me, believed Ortiz might be released by the team.  He looked so bad.  That is what I love about sports;  you never know for sure what’s going to happen on the field every day! 

The Sox still need some help and my guess is they’ll swing some deals at the trading deadline to get a bat and strengthen their bullpen.

What’s been a nice coincidence is that the Yankees just finished a bad stretch and the Rays have been more “mortal-looking” as well, apparently experiencing a bit more trouble hitting.   In a couple of weeks, the Rays and Yankees don’t seem at least quite as far ahead of the Sox talent and performance-wise.  But, I still think the Red Sox are not as good as either of these two tough teams.

The Red Sox, even with Big Papi performing, still need to beef up their lineup.  Jacoby Ellsbury is still hurting from his rib fracture and may have to return to the DL.  Mike Cameron will be in more fragile condition all season due to his abdominal strain (due to a sports hernia?)  Billy Hall, a utility player,  has not played well in the field or at the plate.  Darnell McDonald, a minor-leaguer who has filled in in center, has gotten a few big hits, but is a below-average outfielder.    Jeremey Hermida has also gotten some clutch hits, but can’t field very well.

If the Red Sox can somehow add some juice to their lineup, their pitching just may keep them competitive for more of the summer.  If not, their pitchers will end up carrying too much of the responsibility to limit opposing teams to a few runs a game.

AJ: Red Sox Show a Little Spark

Last Saturday night, I was watching the Celtics-Magic game with my brothers, when, suddenly, we learned that Daisuke Matsuzaka had a “No-No” going into the 7th inning vs. the Phillies.

We watched Dice-K lose the no-hitter with two outs in the 8th inning, but, for me, this moment – of Dice-K pitching brilliantly against one of the best-hitting lineups in baseball – was one of the highlights of this still-early 2010 season.   Finally, something positive and unexpected was happening to this boring Red Sox team.   It has been part of a very good stretch for the Sox in which they’ve split with the NY Yankees, taken two from the Minnesota Twins, took two of three from the Phillies, and, last night, won the first of three from the Tampa Bay Rays.  Before this, the Sox have fared poorly against better teams and performed best vs. the worst teams.

I’ve often defended Matsuzaka the past few years, but, before this last outing, even I was getting fed up with some of his tendencies — his “nibbling” on the corners rather than challenging hitters;  taking too much time on the mound, and, being so inconsistent with his fastball velocity and location.  Sometimes this year, particularly, Dice-K’s fastball has been surprisingly lousy:  He’s thrown many at 89 or 90 mph with no movemement and down the middle that have been belted by any decent hitters.  I was wondering if Dice-K was hurt.  How could his fastball regress after pitching so little last season, when he took most of the season to strengthen his arm and get into better shape?

Well, I got enough glimpses of his Saturday gem to know his fastball was better.  I saw one that reached 94 mph on the gun, but, I assume many others did too.  (Did they?) 

Matsuzaka hasn’t been the only source of good news for the Sox.  Clay Buchholz has pitched very well and is showing a few signs of maturity on the mound.  I’m referring to progress at getting out of jams, and, simply keeping his confidence despite setbacks on the mound.  Buchholz displayed more tenacity last night as he worked around jams against the Rays, whose lineup is very relentless.  In addition, Buchholz seems to be making slow progress at not letting baserunners bother him.  In the past, his performance has suffered when pitching out of the stretch and he has an extremely compulsive habit of throwing over to first when a runner is on base.   Last night, Buchholz got another big win for the team.  He’s thrown a slider much more in the past few games.  Who knows?  This slider – combined with his fantastic changeup, outstanding curve (which he should throw much more!) and his fastball – could turn him into an ace.

Beyond this, the team’s hitting has picked up some.  David Ortiz appears to be back swinging the bat well.  He’s hit a slew of HRs in the past two weeks and has his “swagger” back.  Victor Martinez has shown signs of life after a lengthy slump.  JD Drew awoke from his slumber to get a string of hits — but, I’m still not sure he won’t regress back into mediocrity soon. 

Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis are living up to expectations:  They’re the best, most consistent hitters on the team.  They’re playing well in the field too. 

Jacoby Ellsbury is back from his injury, and, clearly is not himself at the plate yet.  Will he help the team in the leadoff spot?  I think so, but I thought Marco Scutaro had been half-decent in his absence.   Jeremy Hermida has supplied a bunch of big, clutch hits so far;  in fact, he’s probably won several games singlehandedly, so, he appears to have the potential to help even more in the future.

For some reeason, John Lackey has not pitched that well for several starts.  I’m not sure what his problem is, but, his fastball seems to lack its normal zip, to me.  It’s as if Lackey is tired, even though he’s got no reason to be tired.  I hope he does not have an underlying ailment of injury.   This is worth keeping an eye on.

The other major development affecting Red Sox Nation positively?  The Yankees are struggling a bit.  The Bombers have showed their mortality lately, losing a few games to the Rays and the Mets.  They’re battling injuries to a few key players.  Jorge Posada will be out for a while.  Nick Johnson will be out for a while.  Andy Petttite’s elbow was bothering him.  Plus, Joba Chamberlain has been shaky in the setup role.  He looked horrible against the Sox and allowed them to comeback and win that recent game.   

Though it’s very early, it appears the Red Sox’ best chance may, in fact, be to edge out the Yankees rather than catch the Rays, who seem too talented to struggle for a long time.

Once again, GM Theo Epstein will have some very tough decisions to make as the trading deadline approaches.  Will the team be in the race enough to influence Theo to make an important deal or two?  Or, will he prefer to gut it out and accept the strong possibility the team may not make the wild card this year.

At least, in the past two weeks, the Red Sox have shown signs of life.  Before that, I thought they might be irrelevant by the trading deadline.

AJ: Papelbon Blows Chance for Special Win

 Last night’s game may be one that is singled out for its uniquely agonizing qualities after the  Red Sox 2010 season is over. 

The Sox were losing 5-0 to the Yanks after starter Daisuke Matsuzaka began another game by pitching poorly.   The team mounted a great comeback and eventually took the lead 9-7 as the bottom of the 9th inning approached.  When closer Jonathan Papelbon came in, the odds looked good for a win – even with the Yankees’ middle of the order coming up.  Instead, Papelbon gave up a two-run homer to A-Rod, followed by another two-run homer to Marcus Thames, giving the Bombers a walk-off victory.  It was exactly the kind of game this edition of the Red Sox desparately needed to win.  One could sense the enlarged value that might have come with a hard-fought win.   But, No……….Instead, we’re left to analyze Papelbon’s problems along with all the others facing the team.

Papelbon is encountering the same struggles in 2010 that he suffered last year.  His fastball lacks “giddy-up” and, as a result, it’s become very hittable when it’s thrown down the middle.  Observers keep saying he’s throwing too many fastballs, and, that’s true, to an extent, but, his main issue is that his fastball simply lacks the “late life” it had a few years ago.  Now, at the end of 2009, for whatever the reason, Papelbon regained his earlier capacity and threw more heaters with movement by hitters.  It was as if he had saved his strength to unleash his liveliest, fastest heaters for the end of the season.  Of course, he then fizzled in the playoffs.

The Red Sox have so many problems now that it’s hard for me to imagine them catching the Tampa Bay Rays or the NY Yankees this year.  It’s still early, but, they better start improving or making some changes before it’s too late.

For example:

• It’s time to set a deadline for Ramon Ramirez to either improve or remove him from the bullpen.  After an excellent start in 2009, Ramirez has gone downhill – to the point that he has consistently hurt the team’s chances to win games.  Ramirez, last weekend, walked in the game-winning run vs. the Detroit Tigers.  It’s irresponsible to keep putting Ramirez – in his poor form – out there.
• It’s time for the team to give Hideki Okajima a bit of time to work out his problems instead of continuing to bring him in during critical moments.  Okajima needs some help.
• It’s time, yes, to even give Matsuzaka some deadlines for improving his performance.  If he cannot get consistent zip on his fastball, he’s not going to improve.  He’s still struggling with his command, and, his problems, at this point, seem like they’re not likely to go away.  If Matsuzaka does not show show signs of change, I’d consider trading him before the season’s over.  I like Daisuke, but, it’s time for him to adjust - once and for all – to pitching in the US and stop trying to “nibble” with his pitches.  Personally, I think he has the talent and potential to make these improvements – but I think the team needs to try new ways to “break through” with Dice-K.
• In the weeks and months ahead, the team must face its hitting limitations and begin building a stronger-hitting lineup.  That means making tough decisions about David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and whether to re-sign Victor Martinez for 2011 – among other moves. Right now, despite certain statistics that suggest the Sox hitting is good; in fact, their hitting is too weak for the AL East.

A Bit More on Sox Hitting

I’ve already stressed my distaste for all the emphasis baseball observers place on some baseball stats today – such as On Base Percentage or OPS, among others.  I’m more perturbed, specifically, by people citing certain hitting stats about the 2010 Red Sox because focusing on only those stats makes the Sox appear better than they are.   This trend began months ago – during the off-season – and, to my dismay, it’s continuing up until today.

Let’s start with the present:  Some stat-loving baseball writers have pointed out recently that the Red Sox hitting really isn’t that bad, after all.  In fact, the team’s hitting isn’t its biggest problem, they claim.    These stat-obsessed folks would argue, for example, that because the Red Sox are ranked 3rd – overall – in hitting in the American League, according to an ESPN compilation a few days ago, the team’s hitting is fine.  ESPN statistics, as of a few days ago, placed the Red Sox as 3rd in “Runs Scored” – behind the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees.  (Today, they rank 4th)  The Red Sox were 2nd in total “Home Runs;” 2nd in OPS; 3rd in OBP;  2nd in Doubles, and 1st in total Hits. 

I find these hard to believe, but, I know they don’t mean too much.  Why?  I’ve watched enough Sox games and followed those I’ve missed to know that this team often cannot produce enough runs to win games.   They’ve scored three runs or less in many games, and, yes, lost quite a few of those.  Last weekend, for example, in one of their games vs. the Detroit Tigers, the Tigers walked 12 Red Sox players, but the Sox still scored only six runs and lost the game.  The Sox, for another example, have lost almost all of their extra-inning games.  This is unsurprising because, extra-inning games often are decided by which team can first string together hits in a limited time OR hit a home run.  The Red Sox are not good at timely hitting or slugging despite accumulating decent totals as a team in hits and home runs.  The Sox constantly leave men on base.

I will always care far more about what my eyes tell me about a baseball team than the numbers.  Otherwise, I wouldn’t enjoy it so much.   So, for example, when the Red Sox faced the Yankees last night, I was interested to watch Ortiz hit a home run off Phil Hughes, one of the hottest pitchers in baseball now.  I wasn’t sure he could pick up Hughes’ fastball like that. 

The stats, thankfully, don’t tell the whole story.   The story of what’s unfolding for each player, for the pitcher and catcher and the dynamics of a game is far more compelling.  The Red Sox badly needs more hitting or they will not make the playoffs.  That’s the key truth about the team, but, you won’t find that revealed in the stats.

AJ: Beckett’s Status Adds to Sox Woes

Last Friday night, I was stunned by how fantastic Josh Beckett looked in hs first several innings against the World Champion NY Yankees.

After several starts when his velocity had been down and  his control absent, Beckett featured his old blazing fastball at 95, or even, 96 miles per hour.  His curveball had its best snap to it.  Beckett threw one lively fastball after another by the stud hitters in the Yankees’ All-Star lineup.  He kept the ball down – something he has unable to do in the early 2010 season.

I was so relieved to see that Beckett could even pitch like that again.  He had been mediocre in most of his 2010 starts, and, that poor start followed a bad ending to his 2009 season, when Beckett seemed worn out.

Then, suddenly, in the 6th inning, Beckett just lost it.  He suddenly had no control.  He hit a couple of Yankees, including Derek Jeter with the bases loaded.   He looked horrible.  I don’t know what happened.  I had gone out for a 20-minute walk, and, when I came back, Beckett was about to be taken out of the game.  Now, about five days later, perhaps we have a possible explanation:  The news broke today that Beckett’s back is bothering him, and, due to back spasms, his next start will be delayed at least a week.  (He was due to pitch tomorrow, then Friday, and, now, it’ll be sometime later)

As I write this, it remains unclear if Beckett’s back problem will be anything that serious.  Managaer Terry Francona said today it is not that bad.  Yet, it’s very early in the season, and, Beckett has had physical ailments the past two seasons.

I just hope Beckett recovers quickly because, for a few innings last Friday night, he showed flashes of his old self on the mound.   He looked like he did in late 2007, when he led the Sox to their second World Series of this century.  I know I wasn’t the only one who felt that Beckett was in rare form for those few innings. I’ve heard other seasoned baseball observers around here say the same thing.

Right now, the Red Sox need all the assets they can find.  If Beckett can truly regain his old form, their starting pitching rotation will take a leap upward.

I can tell it’s been a rough season.  I’m already desparately looking for any silver linings I can.  I wasn’t as fazed by the Yanks blowing the Sox out to win two out of three.  I was clinging on to a few great innings from Beckett as a sign of some hope for 2010.