AJ: I Hope Theo Doesn’t Really “Ignore” RBIs

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein had just finished praising JD Drew’s statistics for “runs scored” and “on-base percentage” during a Sept. 30th radio interview, when he expounded on the topic of RBIs.

“You guys can talk about RBIs if you want,” Epstein told interviewers Michael Felger and Tony Massarotti on “98.5:  The Sports Hub,”  “I just…we ignore them in the front office.  , and I think we’ve built some pretty good offensive clubs.  If you want to talk about RBIs at all, talk about them as a percentage of opportunity, but, it’s not a way or something we use to evaluate offensive players.”

Theo knows his stats, but, I don’t like to hear him downplay RBIs that much.   Call me a baseball “traditionalist,”  but I place a lot of weight on RBIs.  I know it’s the rage to harp on OBP and OPS, but, to me, the important, intriguing side of baseball is often who can knock in runs – especially against a front-line pitcher when the game is on the line.  Usually, who gets key RBIs involves far more than mathematical probability.  

I prefer focusing most on what I see with my eyes on the field.  I look at the human part of the game – the intangibles.  I notice which hitters get RBIs, especially on the Red Sox, but, also on other teams.  Consider the just-completed post-season, which, to me, illustrated the limited value of stats.  First, in the Angels’ LDS and LCS series, which Angels’ hitter got the most hits and RBI?  It was Vladimir Guerrero, who most baseball pundits had written off as a player in decline.  Meanwhile Chone Figgins, the Angels’ electric leadoff hittter, had another horrible postseason, barely getting the bat on the ball, and Jeff Mathis, a backup catcher, hit better than most of his Angel teammates.

Do stats explain this?  No.  Are there intangible factors that seemed to come into play?  Yes.  The Angels, including Figgins, did not look confident or loose at times.  Maybe Vlad and Mathis were loose. 

Then, consider a few Yankees to further make the point.   Alex Rodriguez had his best post-season.  Again, stats were irrelevant in predicting that.  Instead, A-Rod’s performance likely had more to do with him feeling looser and feeling less internal or external pressure.   Maybe Kate Hudson helped.  Who knows?  Mark Teixeira didn’t hit that well, but, it was his first post-season for the Bombers.  Robinson Cano didn’t hit that well, but, I’ve noticed he’s seems to tighten up a bit in the playoffs.

My point here is that it takes skill, attitude, focus and learned habits to become a great RBI hitter.   Manny Ramirez has hit a TON of RBIs, perhaps because of his being loose, but focused in his at-bast, including the big ones.

Having an ability to hit different pitches from different pitchers when men are on base involves skill, but, also, a special focus and some intangibles that aren’t always reflected in stats.    For instance, take Mike Lowell on the Red Sox.  He’s a good fastball hitter who often struggles hitting breaking pitches, but, when Lowell is up with guys on base and facing two strikes, Lowell chokes up on the bat to improve his chances for making contact.  Lowell is a better hitter with men on base and gets more RBIs than some of his teammates.  He has a good attitude at the plate and does whatever he can to knock the ball to the outfield.

Derek Jeter is about the best example imaginable of having an “RBI mentality.”  With men on base, Jeter adjusts his swing – often to that “inside-out” approach – and often sticks his bat out to make contact.  How many times have we seen Jeter poke a hit just past the infield or line the ball to right to knock in key runs in a playoff game?

Well, I’d argue that this kind of ability at the plate is an invaluable skill for a player.   It means far more than OBP or runs scored.  Lowell, by the way, in my view, is a much better baseball player than JD Drew.  Yeah, Drew knows how to draw walks and get on base, but I’d take Lowell hitting with guys on base – and, Lowell will win more games knocking in runs than Drew will with his walks.

I don’t understand these “modern” arguments that RBIs have such limited value.  Maybe Big Mike, who knows baseball stats more than me, can explain it.  But, I’m sure, in the end, I’ll still have my own interpretation.

I’ve watched far too much baseball to not have my own theories and impressions.  I watched in 1967, when Carl Yastrzemski (Yaz) had perhaps the best “clutch” season of any player I’ve seen.  It wasn’t just that Yaz knocked in one key run to help win one big game after another;  it was that the more critical  the game, the more Yaz came through.  I’m thinking about how Yaz went 7-8 in the last two games of that season and the Sox won those two games vs. the Twins and barely squeaked into the playoffs.  Years later, I watched Yaz get another big clutch hit at the 1978 one-game playoff against the Yankees.  It was his first at-bat and he was facing Ron Guidry, who went 25 – 3 that year and was on fire.   Yaz belted a line-drive home run around the right-field foul pole and I recall viewing the hit, at that moment,  as a loud “Fuck You” to the Yankees.  It gave the Sox a wake-up jolt.   A key RBI, I’d say!

Flash forward to the Sox playoff game in 1986 vs the Angels, when the Sox were down 3-1 – in an elimination game, trailing 5-2 going into the 9th inning.   First, Don Baylor, miraculously, reached out to hit an outside pitch for a two-run homer, making it 5-4.  Then, Davd Henderson, a utility outfielder till then, came up and the count ran to two strikes against him.  The Sox were one strike away from elimination.  Henderson hit a 2-run HR, the Sox won the game, then, the ACLS, before losing to the Mets in the crazy Buckner game.

Something gave Baylor and Henderson the concentration to hit those incredible clutch home runs,  but, I’m convinced many players would NOT have been equipped to do so.

 As Theo Epstein tries to strengthen the 2010 Red Sox, he should confront the fact that he lacks enough players who are good at hitting RBIs in clutch situations.  In fact, it was a huge problem on the team in 2009.  The team always left a lot of men on base, often struggling to make contact against above-average pitching.  Kevin Youkilis is good at driving men in.  Lowell is good.  Victor Martinez is good.  Yet, the rest of the lineup is not impressive with  men on base:  That includes Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz , Drew, Gonzalez.  (Ortiz his many RBIs in “garbage time” and often failed to hit with men on base)  That leaves Bay, and, believe it or not, even Bay has limitations with RBIs.  Many of his RBIs come with his home runs and, Bay went into long slumps.  Further, Bay often cannot drive players in when he’s facing pitchers with breaking stuff.  

So, the 2010 Red Sox are a far cry from the 2004 Sox;  yet, sometimes I get a sense Theo is in denial about the huge disparity in hitting that has been exposed.   Ramirez and Ortiz were RBI machines.  They’re gone and you can’t just put a few good OBP guys in a lineup and expect the same results.

So, Theo, while we know we need Red Sox players who can get on base, we also need a few guys with the makeup to drive them in.   RBIs are very important. 

Big Mike: Hermida’s A Smart Pickup

Further proof that Theo Epstein is brilliant — the acquisition of Jeremy Hermida.

 

I love this kid. He’s been playing in a park that kills him. Epstein bought low and there’s next to no risk. If he doesn’t work out, release him. I’d been hoping Hungry Jim Hendry would pick Hermida up for a couple of years now. But, no, he was too busy showering Milton Bradley and Aaron Miles with millions of dollars.

 

Jeremy Hermida may or may not work out for the Red Sox, but his acquisition is the difference between the Carmines (two World Series victories in the last six years) and the Cubs (zero World Series victories since proto-humans descended from the trees in the African savannah some four millions years ago.)

AJ: Red Sox Start New Quest To Catch Yankees

It was such a typical Theo Epstein move:   The day after the 2009 World Series, the Red Sox traded two minor-league pitchers to acquire Jeremy Hermida, an outfielder for the Florida Marlins who, so far, has not played up to initial expectations.

“This was not a blockbuster,” Epstein told the Boston Globe.  “This was a value trade, a chance to get a guy with unfulfilled potential at a reasonable cost.” 

Hermida, the 11th pick in the 2002 draft, who batted .259 with 13 HRs and 47 RBIs last year, will likely be a backup outfield for the Sox, who hope he can tap more of the talent that the Marlins had hoped would blossom.

Epstein is good at making these little “value” deals.  He talks about getting good “value” all the time.   Last year, for instance, Epstein liked the upside “value” of acquiring veteran pitchers John Smoltz and Brad Penny for relatively little money and risk on the chance one or both would pitch great.

Well, that didn’t work out too well, but, Theo likes the idea of getting a player previously viewed as “borderline” and, then, getting more out of that player in Boston.   For example, getting Rocco Baldelli as a utility outfielder for last year or Casey Kotchman as a firstbaseman for the second half.  Theo sees the “value” in JD Drew that isn’t even there.

Theo’s problem is that you cannot build a bona fide contending team solely with little “value” moves.  Once in a while, you need to get a star player – a real stud who can be a cornerstone to build a team around.  Right now, the Red Sox, without their old foundation of Manny Ramirez and a potent David Ortiz, lack a player with that that heft. 

Even if the Red Sox are able to re-sign power-hitter Jason Bay in left field, they’ll still need punch in their lineup, especially as insurance if the production from either Ortiz or veteran 3rd baseman Mike Lowell drops a bit.

It’s interesting.  I’ve thought a lot recently about how, despite the impressive success of Epstein and the current Red Sox management team in recent years, they’ve signed very few “stars” to big contracts.  I think, in some ways, this has been smart because they’ve brought up terrific players from the Sox farm system like Pedroia, Youkilis, Papelbon and Bard.  However, Epstein and Company inherited a team WITH Manny Ramirez and Pedro Martinez, both acquired by Dan Duquette (who deserves more credit than he gets for that, and, for getting Johnny Damon!)  Epstein smartly dealt for Ortiz, who turned out to be about 100 times more valuable than he imagined, and, yes, the Sox made their infamous Thanksgiving, 2003 “pitch” to get Curt Schilling and got Keith Foulke before 2004 as well.

I think that, sooner or later, Theo will have to make a BIG move or two to re-make the Red Sox, who seem stuck in neutral now.  Indicators suggest the BIG moves might not come until after 2010, when contracts for Ortiz, Lowell and pitcher Josh Beckett will expire.  Beckett is expected to play out the option in the last year of his contract in 2010, but, he and his agent want to talk to the Red Sox soon about how he fits into the team’s long-term plans.   Would the Sox consider trading Beckett now rather than wait until the end of 2010?  I don’t think it’s impossible, but, they’d have to find a good replacement for him, and, I think they’ll try to keep him around.

It seems Epstein may continue making some “value” deals to improve the 2010 Red Sox while hoping he can re-sign Bay.  Yet, right now, the Sox will fall way short of the New York Yankees in 2010 – in terms of talent.  While the Sox are trying to figure out how to hold onto their existing assets, the Yankees are so stacked that they’re considering whether to let go of either Hideki Matsui, who knocked in 6 runs in Game 6 of the World Series or Damon, who was one of their other World Series stars.   The Yankee lineup and pitching rotation is expected to very similar to their 2009 team -  BAD news for the Sox and the rest of baseball. 

In Boston, there has been much talk lately about how the Yankees’ acquisition of Mark Teixeira last off-season has made – and will continue to make – an enormous difference in the direction of these two rival teams.  Many Sox fans continue to obsess about how they feel the Sox blew it in negotiations with Teixeira, who took the Yanks’ higher offer.   I have  to admit Teixeira is damned good and helped get the Yanks to the Promised Land this year….but, I think he belongs on the Pinstripes.  He’s seems like such a serious, machine-like, nerdy guy.

Nevertheless, Theo and the Red Sox will have to get a stud like Teixeira, eventually, if they are to catch the Bombers, who, at the moment, seem well-positioned to  repeat once or twice.   They need a real star – not just “value” guys.

Big Mike: The Silver Lining

AJ, I’m as disappointed as you surely are that the Yanks won the Series last night. But I’m a lifelong depressive who has learned to seek out positives, no matter how small they may be, in any discouraging situation. So I’ll say this — I’m really happy for Alex Rodriguez.

He may be the most misunderstood player in the bigs since…, hell, I don’t know…, since I became a fan in 1967. All he ever did wrong was sign a contract for a quarter of a billion dollars back in 2001. That is, that was his only sin before he was outed in the steroid witch hunt just this past spring.

Yankees fans have treated him as if he’s the guy who mutated the Swine Flu into a human malady. Or as if he implied that Iraq was a half hour away from blowing up Manhattan with one of its ghost nukes.

He’s been portrayed as selfish and a choker. Puh-leaze!

From reasons I can’t fathom, New Yorkers have compared him unfavorably to Saint Derek Jeter. Guys like Tim McCarver have watered and fertilized the Jeter myth that he’s some kind of uber-human, a player who transcends the game with his grit, his desire, his smarts, his devotion to his team and so on ad nauseum. Don’t get me wrong, I think Jeter’s a Hall of Famer-in-waiting. But he can’t now nor could he ever hold either A-Rod’s bat or his glove.

When Brian Cashman brought Rodriguez and his wheelbarrow of cash over from Texas in 2004, he was already the greatest shortstop in the history of the game. Not Wagner, not Ripken, not Banks, not Smith — Alex Rodriguez.

Unfortunately, the beatification of Jeter had begun years before that. But Jeter, although the second-best shortstop in the game at the time, already was seen as lacking in range  by us stat geeks of the world. The right move — and, no doubt, the move Cashman had in mind — was for Jeter, then aged 30, to switch to second base and together with A-Rod form the best double play combination ever.

Did Jeter do that? Hell no! I’m the captain of this team, Jeter hollered, as Rodriguez was  modeling pinstripes for the media. This is my team. I’m not moving for anybody!

Hell of a team player, no? What did A-Rod do? Did he bitch and moan and say, Hell, I’ve won Gold Gloves, I’ve won an MVP (for a last place team, no less), I hit 50 homers a year, I oughta be the shortstop of the New York Yankees? Uh uh. He moved to third base. He had to learn a new position and didn’t complain about it. He struggled a bit but finally got the hang of it. Four years later he only turned in the greatest season any third baseman ever has.

For that New Yorkers have branded him selfish and a choker. Dopes.

Let’s take a quick look at this purported choker’s post-season production. After all, the playoffs is when the real men shine, right? That’s what they say about Saint Derek.

Over 54 post-season games, Rodriguez has smacked 13 homers, driven in 35 runs, batted .302, and posted a .568 slugging percentage and a .409 on-base percentage for a robust .977 OPS. Yeee-owww! That’s in October (and, this year, November), when the eyes of the world are upon him and he’s facing the best pitchers.

Derek Jeter? Mr. November? The god of clutch? The greatest man ever to stride the Earth? In his 138 post-season games, he has batted .313, slugged .479, gotten on base at a 38 percent clip. Good numbers…, no, great numbers, especially for a shortstop. Still, they’re not A-Rod numbers.

So what’s the problem with Rodriguez? Nothing. But as long as the Yanks failed year after year to win the World Series, spoiled and demanding New Yorkers had to blame someone. May as well have been the guy with the quarter-billion-dollar contract.

No more. He’s now a champion. Of course, in my mind he’s always been.

AJ: I Predict Papelbon Will Remain for 2010

Big Mike, I agree the Red Sox view Jonathan Papelbon’s time as  The Closer is limited because of his eligibility for free agency after the 2011 season.  I disagree with you on the odds for him to be traded before 2010.  I think the Sox would prefer to get one more excellent year out of Papelbon in 2010.  Then, before or during 2011, or, immediately after 2011,  I think they’ll part ways with Pap.   And, after 2010 – with more wear and tear on Pap’s arm, they might find that a good time to deal him.   How his arm holds up is key..

First, Papelbon, despite a “bumpier” ride to another great season in 2009 — except for hit disastrous blown save in the playoffs — finished very strong in the last six weeks of the season, and, overall, posted one of the better records for closers in baseball.   He spent part of the season trying to adjust to a new pitching motion, and, I think that reduced his effectiveness at times.   Second, and this is a major factor, there is not another pitcher ready to replace Papelbon.  Daniel Bard, by all appearances, will eventually replace Papelbon, but, Bard, who throws at 100 mph,  showed, toward the end of the season, he still needed to work on his pitching - such as improving his fastball location to prevent late-inning home runs.  He needs more experience, but, signs suggest that by the end of 2010 as the team’s “8th inning” guy again, Bard, by then, might be ready to take over for Papelbon. 

In my previous blog, I mentioned the Sox, however, might think about moving Papelbon before 2010 – simply because he seemed, to me, one of the only players who they could even think about moving.   I don’t think the Sox would trade Papelbon before 2010 unless circumstances are evolving very unfavorably for them — i.e. If they lose Jason Bay to free agency, then, for whatever reasons, they cannot sign either Adrian Gonazalez or Matt Holliday, both sluggers, to replace Bay in the outfield.  Then, perhaps Theo Epstein and Sox executives might feel much more pressure to make some splash before Spring Training.

By the way, back in early 2003, with Theo Epstein his first year as GM, the Sox tried a “closer by committee” approach – which turned out to be a diaster.  (Before 2004, they got Keith Foulke as their closer and he played a critical role in the team winning the World Series)   I know Bill James was among a group consulted in those early days of designing a bullpen, but James later denied advocating for a “closer by committee.”  I think James supported the notion that there could be benefits of a closer pitching earlier than the ninth inning — if and when key situations arose.

Personally, I hated that “Closer by Committee” idea.  Wathching Papelbon embrace his role and benefit from the rituals and routine has helped convince me of that.  Mariono Rivera offers compelling signs of benefits to The Closer tradition too.

 Big Mike,  your discussion of the Red Sox reminded me, again, of the strange, new dilemmas they might face in 2010.  My guess is that the Sox position is:  If they cannot sign Jason Bay, they simply MUST sign Adrian Gonzalez, or, perhaps, even Matt Holliday.  Otherwise, the team would have an embarrassing, near-unprecedented lack of power in their hitting lineup, and, a lack of “star power.”   It’d be a rather boring lineup – like in 2009 – of good, hardworking players, who are fairly low-key, free of controversy and a bit bland, particularly in the dog days of summer as they’re going down quietly to young pitchers on dry days of August.

As I said, unless Theo Epstein and Sox owership get very creative and pull some rabbits out of their hats, 2010 may look a lot like 2009.   And they might feel an incentive to keep Papelbon, one of their only exciting “stud” players left, for one more season.  Otherwise, their “excitement gap” will be disturbingly high.   Will fans keep flocking to Fenway?  (Yes)

 

Big Mike: Closing The Door On Papelbon

A trade involving Papelbon is not as unthinkable as you say. In fact, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he’s not wearing the Scarlet Hose come spring training.

I have a sneaking suspicion that Theo and his brain trust (including my personal deity, Bill James) value Mr. Drew a hell of a lot more than their brilliant closer. In fact, they really don’t worship closers as much as the rest of the baseball world does.

Look, Papelbon made six and a quarter mill this past season. An arbitrator will award him, oh, in the neighborhood of $10M if things go that far. I doubt if he’ll agree to a pre-arb hearing deal for less than $9M. Should he continue being Jonathon Papelbon (as opposed to becoming, say, Jeremy Papelbon who toils in obscurity in the Cubs system, natch) he’ll get $10-12M next offseason. Then after 2011, he’s gonna be in for a four or five year, $80-100M deal when he becomes a free agent. Boston ain’t never gonna go for that.

(True, Papelbon is entering his sixth season in 2010 but, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, he’ll still be shy of free agency after next year. His first season in 2005 was a partial one.)

The Red Sox have a mighty payroll but it’s unlikely they’ll want to commit such a huge fraction of it to the closer. The best bet right now is to turn him into some very usable parts — a Major League-ready prospect, an established position player or some creative combination.

You might ask, Who’d do that? The White Sox would. The Pale Hose are becoming less than infatuated with Bobby Jenks. He’d be a nice bridge between the Papelbon and Bard eras. The WSox though, would have to scuffle to find that position player the RSox would want.

Okay then. How about the Tigers? Detroit has a gaping hole at closer. Would they be willing to package Curtis Granderson for Papelbon? The Red Sox would listen if Jason Bay takes a hike. Shifting Granderson to left with Ellsbury remaining in center and Drew in right — wow! That’d be a defensive outfield worth seeing.

The point is, there’s always a market for a closer with gaudy statistics. And the Red Sox seem always confident that they can fill the role either from within or without. Hell, they can even pick up Billy Wagner’s option or buy him out and offer him a reasonable contract to come back.

In any case, now’s the time to deal Papelbon.

AJ: Red Sox Face Tough Choices for 2010

The Red Sox are in a major transition, but, we don’t know how much change will come before 2010, or, after next season.  

GM Theo Epstein and the Sox brass have hard choices this winter, including whether to make a big deal or two NOW  to improve the team or to stick it out in 2010 with the 2009 roster largely intact.  

It’s hard to predict.  On the one hand, Theo and company have a history of shaking things up.  On the other, this year’s class of free agents is supposed to be sub-par and perhaps the team will stand pat and hope for patience.  (Not easy given that Boston fans have no patience).

The current Red Sox executives are accustomed only to winning.   Since John Henry, Larry Lucchino and Tom Werner bought the team in 2002, the Red Sox  have made the playoffs most years, won two World Series and made it to the ACLS twice and lost.  Of course, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were the core of those teams until, for the first time, in 2009, the team had neither – if you consider that Ortiz was not his old self much of the year.  That’s why, in an important way, the Sox’ transition began during 2009, when they had to find ways to win without their old Gehrig/Ruth duo.

To the Red Sox’ credit, they found a way to win 95 games in 2009 with key contributions by pitchers Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Jonathan Papelbon and left fielder Jason Bay and newly-acquired Victor Martinez.   Yet, one sensed, as the year unfolded, that certain players were on a downhill trajectory.

Ortiz and Mike Lowell are both older and unlikely to keep producing at the same level.  Ortiz has said he plans to follow a different work-out program in the offseason.  Maybe he can improve a bit, but signs in 2009 suggest he’ll face limitations in 2010.   Lowell, with a bad hip all of 09, hit well, but is also in the ending phase of his career.

 Though knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is recovering from surgery on a herniated disc and says he intends to return, it’s hard to expect much from him.  He’s 43 and has broken down at the end of recent seasons.  Catcher Jason Varitek, long the captain and a team leader,  must decide if he wants to be the backup to Martinez.  Varitek is good with pitchers, but, on his last legs as a performer.

Theo can count on quite a few key players – including the starting pitching rotation – to return.  The challenge will be keeping the team’s offense strong, particularly if Jason Bay signs elsewhere.  The Sox are expected to talk to Bay in the days after the World Series when they have exclusive rights to talk to him, but, if they cannot reach agreement then, Bay will probably attract higher offers elsewhere and leave.  

It seems, on what we know, that the Sox have only a few options.  One might be trying to make a trade for Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres, but, that’s all speculative, and, who knows if the teams could work that out.

One of the only players I think the Sox might think about trading is Papelbon.  I doubt it’ll happen because Pap is still so good, and, Daniel Bard, his heir apparent, is young and still inexperienced to assume the closer role.  However,  Papelbon is unlikely to remain on the team more than another year.  He, himself, has said he wants to cash in on a big deal.  So, in many ways, he’s the only significant “chip” the Sox have. 

Who else would they trade?  Not Ellsbury, Pedroia or Youkilis – all young and viewed as “the future.”  Not Victor, who helped revive the team in mid-season.  JD Drew, at $14 million a year,  is untradeable.  Ortiz and Lowell are old and unlikely to draw interest.    Neither of their two shortstops, veteran Alex Gonzalez or Jed Lowrie, would bring much.  They’ll want to hang onto their pitchers:  Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Matsuzaka, Bard, Okajima, Ramon Ramirez.   Maybe they’ll trade Manny Delcarmen, but, not for much.

So….either the Sox get lucky and sign Bay OR they put a few prospects or players together in a deal to get Adrian Gonzalez OR they choose the wild option of dealing Papelbon.   If none of these work out, what options will Theo have?

The Red Sox are one of  many teams talking to Aroldis Chapman, the 21-year-old, Cuban left-handed “stud” pitcher who throws a 100 mph fastball.   Even if the Sox win that competition, Chapman needs time in minors.

There are a few promising young players on the way up – including budding shortstop Jose Iglesias and pitcher/shortstop Casey Kelley, but, reportedly, they need more time in the minors.

2009 was another excellent year for the Sox, but, they got swept in the playoffs and fell short of the Yankees in more ways than one.  The Sox went after Mark Teixeira very aggressively, but, he chose the Yankees, who offered him $10 million more.

The Yanks appear ready to bring back most  of their roster for 2010.  If the Red Sox don’t make a big move, they appear poised to fall short again, but, perhaps by a greater margin.

If I had to guess, I believe Theo Epstein will, again, surprise us with a significant move before 2010 spring training.  It’s just my hunch.

Big Mike: Anything Left In The Wells?

As I wrote yesterday, I love this time of year in baseball. I’m already over the Cubs‘ latest disappointing season. Anything can happen now. The Cubs have just as much chance to play in the 2010 World Series as a dozen other teams.

And, as I wrote yesterday, step one in getting there is dumping Milton the Monster. Now, who in the hell wants to take on a guy who’s owed $21M over the next two years and has a rep for alienating everyone who comes within 10 yards of him?

Maybe someone who needs his very potent bat and has an even more onerous contract they want to shed? How about the Blue Jays?

I mentioned Canada yesterday as a potential destination for Milton Bradley. Now comes a report from Toronto (via Bleed Cubbie Blue) that the Blue Jays and Cubs just might be talking about a deal wherein Bradley and centerfielder Vernon Wells swap uniforms. Blue Jays accountants would be ecstatic with the deal because, according to reporter Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun, the teams would split the difference in salaries owed the two. Wells has $107M due to him over the next six years, the remainder of  a ridiculous extension ousted general manager JP Ricciardi signed him to three years ago. Subtract Bradley’s $21M from that and you have $86M — meaning Toronto would pay $43M of Wells remaining salary.

Wells, for a brief shining moment, appeared to be on his way to becoming one of the top ten players in the game. His 2006 season was a marvel: he hit home runs, was an all-star, won the Gold Glove and earned a few MVP votes. Ricciardi rewarded him with a deal worthy of one of the ten top players in history.

Then Wells became very pedestrian. Many of his woes could be blamed on nagging injuries. Even his fielding has suffered. The Hardball Times ranked him the third worst fielder in the game, relative to position, this past season. Yuck.

That deal, among many other sins, got Ricciardi fired.

Wells, though, might be a decent risk for the Cubs. Throw him in Wrigley Field’s more cozy centerfield, meaning Kosuke Fukudome goes back to his more natural position in right, and maybe Wells doesn’t look so bad. Plus — and I’m remembering Andre Dawson’s move from Montreal to Chicago — maybe playing on natural grass will restore the spring to Wells’ legs.

baseball-reference.com, using its Batting Similarity Scores metric, compares Wells most closely with Reggie Smith through ages 29 and 30. Smith, it must be noted, turned in several sweet seasons after he hit 30. Why not take a chance on history repeating?

Like I say, anything can happen.

Big Mike: Milton The Monster

Wrigleyville (the community of fans as opposed to the neighborhood around the ballpark) is abuzz with speculation about whom the Cubs will get in exchange for one Milton (no middle name) Bradley of Harbor City, California.

Shoot, I thought all mass murderers or assassins had middle names. Isn’t that what Milton Bradley is? For all the bile spewed in his name since his very first game at Wrigley Field as a Cub, Bradley has to rank among John Wayne Gacy and Richard Franklin Speck as a local villain.

Of course, he’s brought much of the odium on himself but the rage expressed at Bradley is alarming. I mean, jeez, he’s just a ballplayer, albeit one with a paranoiac streak and who can’t control his rages and alienates just about everyone he’s ever shared a shower room with. It’s not like he lied to the country to whip up war fever or is mad because taxpayers won’t pick up the tab for an eight-figure bonus he thinks he should get.

Still, don’t count me among the Bradley defenders. (Then again, are there any Milton Bradley defenders anywhere?) I’m one of those numbers-crunching stats geeks old-time baseball fans like to pillory. I’ll always look to a player’s BAbip, VORP, WARP2, OPS+, UZR, and occasionally his pH level rather than fairy tale attributes like “character,” “ability in the clutch,” and (ugh) “scrappiness.” I have no idea what a “gamer” is but I do know how many Runs Created each player on the Cubs roster was responsible for in 2009. And Milton Bradley is one fine ballplayer based on any metric you can name.

That said, there’s no place for him here next year. If you can find anybody who’ll disagree, then you ought to play the lottery.

Gameboard is owed $21M for both the 2010 and ’11 seasons. The other 29 GMs in MLB know Jim Hendry has to exile Bradley from Cubville. So you might think Hungry Jim is over a barrel. He may have to eat up to $10M of Milton’s remaining pay and accept some other team’s albatross in the bargain. You may be right. Yet, there’s always someone who thinks he can handle the other guy’s problems, especially if that problem is good for a plus-.375 on-base percentage. Might someone be willing to swap some usable talent for him?

The Mets are said to be sick to death of both Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran. The Rays are stuck with Pat Burrell’s big contract. The Blue Jays may want to rid themselves of Vernon Wells’ bloated contract. Then there are the Red Sox who always are on the lookout for hitters who produce, leaving others to fight among themselves over the Boy Scouts.

Some say Hendry ought to agree to a deal with the first team that offers to take Bradley off his hands, no matter the return. But reporters like Ken Rosenthal and Bruce Miles claim their sources tell them Hendry already has received more than courtesy calls regarding the wayward rightfielder. Even if Hendry takes his time to sort through whatever competing offers there may be, he has to close the book on Bradley before or at least early on in December’s general managers meeting. The Cubs absolutely cannot stand still as they did in the 2004-05 off-season while trying to exile Sammy Sosa. Not only did they get next to nothing back for a man who’ll waltz into the Hall of Fame, they were unable to pull the trigger on any other signings that might have actually improved their chances the next season. In the weeks leading up to Sammy’s foregone departure, other teams snapped up the likes of Beltran, Magglio Ordonez and even Roger Clemens. I’m getting aroused just thinking about any of those three on the Cubs.

Anyway, Hungry Jim has about five weeks, max, to peddle Bradley. If he doesn’t do the deed by then he may as well hang on to him, which means a lot of unneeded clubhouse drama next season. Whereas clubhouse drama doesn’t necessarily preclude the winning of the World Series, as the mid-70s A’s or late-70s Yankees proved, it doesn’t make the task any easier. And, it must be said, the 2010 Cubs will not compare favorably with either the of those champs.

Had I magic in the snap of my fingers, I’d put together a package of Carlos Zambrano, Milton Bradley and Sean Marshall for Beltran and Reyes. Everybody’s happy that way — the Mets get rid of a couple of guys whom they (wrongly) consider lacking and they get the stud pitcher and outfield masher they so crave. The Cubs, meanwhile, wave bye-bye to their most villified player since Todd Hundley as well as a guy whose mound blow-ups are becoming increasingly intolerable. Plus, they get a brilliant switch-hitting leadoff man shortstop and slugging centerfielder, neither of which they’ve had since the Fillmore administration. Sigh.

Will it happen? Hell no! But that’s what I love about the hot stove season — I can pretend it might.

Pedro Showed His Stuff Even In Phillies’ Loss

Call me crazy, but, I felt Pedro Martinez’ performance last night was extraordinary.   I will remember it for a long time.

Why?  Because Pedro overcame tremendous odds and obstacles to perform as well as he did.   Pedro, 38,  had pitched only since August, when he joined the Phillies’ rotation.   With diminished skills, an 89 mph fastball, and less consistent bite in some of his other pitches, Pedro would have to summon all his creative powers if he was to make it through that lineup of Yankee hitters — one of the best in baseball history.  Plus, he’d been sick the past two days.

I was one of many who didn’t think he’d survive long.  I thought Yankee hitters would be patient and sit on his fastball.   What I didn’t realize was the extent to which Pedro had reinvented himself since I last watched him!

Pedro used his changeup and curve so often and effectively that he fooled Yankee hitters during much of his six-inning outing.  His off-speed stuff was so good that his fastball appeared faster to hitters.   He kept hitters guessing all night and managed to strike out both Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez twice.   That was no easy task for Pedro even back in 2004.

Pedro moved the ball around in the zone and mixed his speeds.  He was so careful, knowing he had to be precise with his location, or, he’d get knocked around.  I had never seen him throw so much breaking and off-speed stuff for an entire outing, and, likewise, I’d never seen him “fool” hitters by surprisingly throwing a fastball.  He’s made a full transformation to a slower, finesse pitcher.

Most of the time, he kept the Bombers off balance.  Mark Teixeira hit his home run by waiting for a changeup, but, Hideki Matsui hit his home run by golfing a very low pitch over the short right-field fence.  I thought Matsui’s home run was a fluke.   

The story would’ve been nicer if Pedro had gotten the win, but the Phillies couldn’t hit A.J. Burnett, anyway. 

I had never expected to see Pedro at center stage again.   He had lost his effectiveness a few years ago, before having shoulder surgery.  Then, even after rehabbing, it wasn’t clear he could regain his form.   He considered retirement as he waited to find a team that’d pay him what he felt he deserved.  The Phillies were smart to sign him in July, and, I feel we’ve been lucky to see Martinez’ two sharp starts in the playoffs.  

I just love watching an athlete defy the odds and the pundits.   To me, Pedro did that last night.  Many baseball writers and fans overlooked how unlikely it was for him to hold his own vs. the 2009 Yankees.

Whenever a Red Sox pitcher this year (or, in recent years) held the Yankees to two or three runs over six or seven innings, I considered that a very good outing.  

I considered Pedro’s outing last night even more special due to all he overcame.