Big Mike: Theo Keeps On Rolling

9:oopm EST. Now you’ve got Cameron for left field. I’d say Theo’s playing for 2010, AJ.

By the way, that’s gonna be one fine defensive outfield, maybe not Yaz-Lynn-Dewey fantastic, but it’ll do for now.

Big Mike: Making A Cadillac Payment On A Chevy

John Lackey is good. That’s as far as I’ll go. As I wrote earlier, I like good, smart pitchers. I’d rather have a staff filled with competent, cagey starters than one top heavy with an ace and a near-ace followed by a bunch of question marks.

Theo gave Lackey $17M/year for five years. The Boston boss can afford the investment even if Lackey breaks down or suddenly becomes more hittable. The Sox and the Yanks are the only two teams in baseball that can make such a deal with a pitcher of his caliber and not be financially hamstrung for a half decade. More power to Epstein and Brian Cashman.

Had Hungry Jim Hendry or Kenny Williams made the deal, though, I’d have called for their scalps.

Let’s take a look at your new mound star. He has excellent control, rarely gives up a home run and has a decent strike out rate. I’d be worried, though, about his hit-ability. For his career, Lackey has given up 9.1 hits per nine innings. He’s not dominating. At $85M, I’d want dominating. Then again, I’d never make an $85M investment in a pitcher in the first place, even if he gave up only seven hits per nine.

It seems that Lackey hit his peak in 2007, when he was 28, and now has settled in as a nice, plus pitcher. His value isn’t in being the untouchable force of nature that Pedro Martinez was. It’s that, with him, the Boston rotation is becoming full. It’s solid from 1 through 4 with only joker being Clay Buchholz, in the back-end spot. I agree with you — I’d turn the kid over to the highest bidder in a heartbeat in exchange for some more offensive firepower and then look for a number five guy at a bargain rate.

Here’s where I’ll give Theo even more credit. He was reported to be interested in Rich Harden. Thank your lucky stars Harden signed with the Rangers for one year plus a mutual-option second year with a $1M buyout. He’ll make at least $7.5M for 2010 and could, conceivably, earn $20 for the full two years. He ain’t gonna make the 20. Harden’s got electrifying stuff but his control blows and he kills bullpens. I’ve got to think that Theo knew that even better than I do and his purported interest was nothing more than smoke being blown by Harden’s agent.

Instead, Epstein gets a good, solid, dependable righthander. I like the additition of Lackey, AJ, I just don’t like the amount being sunk into him. But, If you’ve got it to sink, you may as well sink it.

Speaking of sinking, the Cubs are still looking for someone to take Milton Bradley off their hands.

AJ: Red Sox Seem Near Deal with Lackey

Suddenly, out of the blue, I just heard the good news that the Red Sox are closing in on a deal for Angels’ ace pitcher, John Lackey!  This is a HUGE move, which will have ramifications on other important moves.

For instance, there is already speculation the Red Sox may now feel able to trade pitcher Clay Buchholz in a deal for a power hitter.  This increases the speculation about what the Sox plans are for Josh Beckett:  will they sign him to an extension of his contract that ends after the 2010 season, or, will they prepare to let him go as a free agent then.  That depends not only on the financial considerations, but, importantly, the Sox view of the health and durability of Beckett’s arm.  He’s finished two seasons with arm trouble.

If the Sox leave their other pitchers in place, their rotation will appear among the most awesome in baseball with:  Lackey, Beckett, Jon Lester, Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Perhaps the best part of this Lackey news:  It shows the Red Sox are back in the game – competing with the Yankees, and, not over-emphasizing that 2010 is a “transition year.”   Lackey is good.   (More on this story later)

AJ: As a Red Sox Fan, I Feel Your Pain

Big Mike, I gotta tell you:  When I read your description of your experience of the 2003 Cubs’ collapse, I felt like I was re-living a number of painful traumas I endured as a lifelong Red Sox fanatic.  I could especially relate to the part when you observed that after Moises Alou failed to catch that foul ball, that Cub fans, collectively, just knew the series was over.  It reminded me of the feeling I had after the Red Sox blew Game 6 against the Mets in 1986.  Everyone remembers Bill Buckner and the ending, but no one (but Sox fans) think about how they still had a chance to win Game 7.  Very few Red Sox fans felt they had a prayer in that Game 7 — just like the Cubs’ fans felt – and, they were right.  The Sox blew Game 7 too.   This is where the experiences of Cub Fans and Hub Fans genuinely intersect.  

The difference is the Red Sox finally, miraculously, won in 2004 – and, then, in 2007.   But, I have to tell you, Big Mike, there is a fine line between winning and losing.  I will never forget sitting at Game 5 of that 2004 ACLS game against the Yanks – and watching one mediocre Sox pitcher after another somehow get those awesome, powerful Yankee hitters — barely – make thee outs each inning until the 14th or whatever it was when Big Papi hit a bloop single to center and Fenway went wild.   The Red Sox barely, barely scraped that win out…..I’m not a religious man, but the fates were with us that night.

I’m rambling – but, I guess, I’m saying “It CAN happen.  Anything is possible!”

But, I’m also saying two other things:  1)  As we agree, you have to get enough good players – as the Sox did before 2004 – before you win anything, and, 2) The only way to get rid of that gloomy pessimism that many Cub fans still have is TO WIN  – to experience winning.  I remember Bill Parcells, when he was here, used to be asked what the Patriots needed to do to get better, and he would say:  “Win a game”   Players get accustomed to winning – Then, believe it or not, fans do too.

Meanwhile, Jim Hendry and his staff have a long road to go before they assemble enough players to win it all.  It can happen in your lifetime, Big Mike! 

Big Mike: It Won’t Be The Fans

It’ll have to be ownership, AJ.

A hundred-plus years of frustration have reduced Cubs fans to either blissful or bitter passivity. There are two main types of Cubs fans. One expects absolutely nothing from them. Hungry Jim Hendry could load up with enough all-stars to make the Yankees look like a T-ball team but most Chicagoans would smirk and say they know the Cubs’ll find a way to blow it. The rest of Cub-dom is deliriously optimistic about everything and anything. The Cubs could lose three-quarters of the team in an airplane crash and these people would say the spirits of the dearly departed will surely inspire the survivors to finally win the big one this year. It’s downright weird, I tell you.

So no one demands anything of the Cubs. The Pollyannas believe Carlos Zambrano will learn to control his outbursts, Ryan Theriot will reach grounders hit farther than six feet away from him, Alfonso Soriano will be a 40-40 guy, and Santa exists. They don’t demand — they have faith. Compared to these people, faith healers and evangelicals who speak in tongues are as rational as experimental physicists. The bitters ones wouldn’t believe in the Cubs if they had a 10-run lead in the ninth inning of game seven with two outs and two strikes on the last batter.

There may be more pressure on Cubs players, managers, general managers and owners than those in any other North American pro sport simply because the weight of a hundred years is on all their shoulders.

I hate to refer to this traumatic moment in Cubs history but I want to make a point here. When Moises Alou couldn’t catch that foul pop in the eighth inning of game six of the 2003 NLCS, everyone in the park and millions around Chicagoland knew — just knew — the Cubs not only were going to lose the game, but the series as well. And remember, the Cubs were ahead 3-0 with five outs to go in the game and their ace, Mark Prior, was on the hill. A palpable silence and a pall descended over the park — over the city, for chrissakes!. The players couldn’t possible have missed it. Shit, I stormed out of the house and stomped around the block a few times.

Try to grasp this, AJ: with my team on the verge of making the World Series for the first time since World War II, I elected to leave the house and brood about a stupid foul ball. Was I crazy? Was it a dumb decision? Hell no! By the time I got back home, a span during which the Cubs might easily have gotten those five outs and launched the celebration to end all celebrations, the Marlins had scored eight runs.

And still there was a game the next night — with Kerry Wood on the mound. The Cubs took a 5-3 lead into the fifth inning and I was paying as much attention as I would have if it was a spring training game. I knew what was going to happen.

That’s the kind of crushing negativity some really, really, really emotionally resilient players will have to overcome for the Cubs to one day win the World Series. Remember how special the 2004 Red Sox were? Cowboy-up and the Idiots and all that stuff? I doubt if even they could stand the pressure cooker in Wrigley Field.

Ah, well. Teams today are starting to non-tender players they unsuccessfully tried to trade during the winter meetings in Indy this week. The Braves cut Ryan Church loose this morning.

I’ve always thought Church could thrive in a nice hitters park like Wrigley. His career home-road splits show him being hamstrung by every home park he’s played in (Olympic, RFK, and Shea stadiums and Turner Field.)

Hungry Jim should sign him up for a cool couple mill (one year only — let’s not have another Aaron Miles situation on our hands again!) and see what he can do.

By the way, another sign that the Cubs are playing in a world all their own, new batting coach Rudy Jaramillo came to Wrigley not long ago and was aghast that the place lacks a batting cage in which players can take swings during the game.

Well, Tom Ricketts promises to plow all his profits back into the operation. Hope he finds a few hundred thou to build some decent player facilities. That is, after he gets a few decent ballplayers.

AJ: Sox Have Done OK, But I Expect More

If I were a Cub fan, I’d want to do things like the Red Sox too.  (Wow, after the decades of losing, I STILL am not used to the idea that the Sox are so  successful that they’d be a “role model.”)  

Big Mike, I understand your attitude toward Theo Epstein and the Red Sox moves so far in the off-season.  However, I feel compelled to stress to you that even with the actions taken by Theo so far, much of Red Sox nation is very concerned that the team has done too little so far and may fail to improve the team enough by 2010 spring training.   That’s why sports columnists like Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe ripped Theo for attempting to lower fans’ expecations with his remark about 2010 being a “bridge” year.

You’ve gotten me very curious what the hell the Cub fan base is like in 2009.  Does anyone expect anything at this point?  I know knowledgeable fans like you can cite more reasons to be skeptical, but, I just get the sense that no one in the Chicago media or any sizeable segment of fans are really expecting the Cubs to do much in this offseason, or, during next season, or, the season after that. 

My feeling is that even with the years suffered by thousands of Sox diehards, there has been something good about the dynamic connection between Red Sox fans and the team, and the people who run it.   When John Henry, Larry Lucchino and Tom Werner bought the team in 2002, you can bet your ass they felt the intensity of the fans’ interest – and, role – in the team’s evolution.   I’d argue that the fans helped create the undercurrents that motivated this new ownership group to build a winning organization – the organization that fired Grady Little even after the team had reached Game 7 of the 2003 ACLS.  The drive to win – and bring a title to New England and its fans – helped prompt the Sox to sign Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke before the 2004 season and, of course, each played critical roles in 2004.

So, my question for you, Big Mike, is:  which comes first, the fans and media expecting a lot more OR the team suddenly insisting on more?  Which is it — the chicken or the egg?

I’d argue that both are important and tend to come together.  So, who was  really paying close attention to Jim Hendry’s manuevering at the winter meetings?  Is anyone among Chicago’s sportswriters holding Hendry and the Cubs accountable?  (Maybe I’ll suggest Benny Jay for this job!) By the way, I agree with you that Hendry ought to strike a deal to move Milton Bradley SOON.   If the team has to eat even more of his contract, so be it!  Just get it done!  God, I can’t believe it, I’m even getting pissed at the Cubs!

So, back to the Red Sox, I’m, predictably, not quite as impressed as you with the team’s winter moves.  I’m not really unhappy, either, but, they have to get Jason Bay re-signed, and, do more to upgrade their offense. 

I’m telling you, Big Mike, the  Cubs and their fans have to start expecting a lot more, or, they might as well put that Disney World sign up for life at Wrigley Field.

Big Mike: My Secret Crush On The Red Sox

AJ, right now I’m feeling nothing but contempt for my Cubs. It’s like a marriage wherein one or the other partner must endure a stretch of loathing for her/his mate in order for the relationship to work out in the long run.

Hungry Jim Hendry didn’t move Milton Bradley during the winter meetings in Indy this week. Maybe he laid the groundwork for a surprise deal in January. It’s possible, but he’d better get it done ASAP because the organization’s off-season activity has screeched to a halt. There’s not much Hungry Jim can do while saddled with Gameboard’s $21 remaining salary.

How Cub-like — the team has the majors’ third highest payroll budget but must proceed like a small market team because so many guys are locked up in dumb-ass, NTC deals. And even if they weren’t NTC’s, most of the guys making big bucks on the Cubs wouldn’t be movable because they’re worth a fraction of their deals in the real world — that is, the world outside Hungry Jim’s fantasy baseball imagination.

Like many a spouse who goes through a period of loathing, I’m starting to get a wandering eye. The Red Sox look awfully good to me. They’re attractive, intelligent, ambitious. They’re nothing like my, ugh, guys.

The Red Sox have essentially the same payroll budget as the Cubs yet they spend oh-so wisely. The Red Sox farm system is productive, not only developing good, useful parts but imparting the proper mindset  and fundamentals to each and every kid within the system. And the Sox play in a decrepit, old-time ballpark from which they must squeeze every dime to keep up with the competition, just like the Cubs. Finally, both are adored by millions. The Red Sox and the Cubs are more than just their city’s pro baseball teams — they are national brands.

The differences between the two teams are personified by their bosses: Theo and Hungry Jim. How I’d love for Theo to be running the Cubs. You have no idea how lucky you are.

Let’s look at what he’s done this past week at Indy:

• They’re the frontrunner for Adrian Beltre, a brilliant gloveman who just might be a damned decent hitter in Fenway (I checked the home-road splits for his career and for the last several seasons — he’s a lot better away from Dodgers Stadium and Safeco Field;)
• They traded an aging Mike Lowell (Theo clearly was worried about Lowell’s surgically-repaired hip) for a high-ceiling catcher, Max Ramirez, pending medical exams on both players;
• They took a minimal-risk flyer on the recuperating, back of the rotation pitcher Boof Bonser;
• In trying to either retain Jason Bay or sign Matt Holliday, they’re bidding smartly against the Mets, rather than panicking (the way you-know-who would) and throwing U.S. mint at one or the other.

And just prior to the meetings, Epstein nabbed shortstop Marco Scutaro who will be the Sox’ most popular player next year, guaranteed.

Theo has a plan, as always. Hungry Jim has none, as always.

My guess is Beltre is signed by Christmas and Bay eventually re-ups. Man, that’s a good freakin’ lineup:

1B: Youkilis

2B: Pedroia

3B: Beltre

SS: Scutaro

LF: Bay

CF: Ellsbury

RF: Drew

C: Martinez

DH: Ortiz

David Ortiz may not be David Ortiz anymore, but even two-thirds of the old Papi is still better than any other full-time DH now in the league. Youk, Pedroia, Bay, Drew, and Martinez are locks to replicate their consistent yearly outputs (barring injury.) Beltre can do what he did in Seattle and still be an asset, flashing that spectacular leather — but again, I think he’s going to hit a Fenway .290 rather than a Safeco .265. And if Ellsbury continues to improve his K/BB ratio, he’ll become a productive offensive force.

That lineup, with Boston’s pitching, has 100 wins written all over it. Yeah, the Yankees may win 105 (now with Granderson in left — Cashman, for my money is almost as brainy as Theo) but the Sox will be the wild card. That’s all they need to be. Once in the playoffs, the team with the hot pitching advances. Why can’t it be Boston?

As for my boys, I iterate: they can win the NL Central with 85-90 wins or just as easily lose 90 games. I think I want to have an affair with the Red Sox.

AJ: The Red Sox Will Miss Mike Lowell

It appears Red Sox veteran third-baseman Mike Lowell is headed to the Texas Rangers in a trade, pending the review of medical and other final details.    The Sox have agreed to pay approximately $9 million of the $12 million Lowell is owed in 2010, the last year of his contract while they’ll receive Rangers’ minor-league catcher Max Ramirez back. 

It’s an odd, surprising deal because Lowell is in the last year of his contract, and, he’s likely to be in better shape in 2010 than 2009, when, despite being limited to 119 games, he was still able to bat .290 and knock in 75 RBIs.   It’s seems unlikely – whoever his replacement is – that he’ll will hit much better than Lowell.  The question will be whether an improvement in fielding and baserunning from a new 3rd baseman is worth eating most of Lowell’s contract.

Sox GM Theo Epstein has concluded that it IS worth doing that NOW and one gets a sense he wants to start fresh with a new infield in 2010.  Theo has emphasized the need to improve the team’s defense.  (I think he obsesses about this a bit, while being too casual about the team’s weak, limited hitting).  While Lowell has voiced optimism about feeling stronger in 2010 as he continues recovering from a hiip injury, the Red Sox, apparently, doubt he can improve sufficiently in fielding.  Lowell, long a terrific fielder, lacked his old range at 3rd during the 2009 season.

The Sox’ eagerness to part ways with Lowell – especially by absorbing such a huge part of his salary – surprised some.  (The Sox will pay Lowell $9 million for 2010 on top of already paying departed shortstop Julio Lugo, for his 2010 salary while he continues with the St. Louis Cardinals).   Plus, Max Ramirez, while he has potential, is not even an established big league player.

The Sox reportedly are very interested in signing Seattle Mariners’ 3rd-baseman Adrian Beltre, a Gold Glove-calibre fielder.  It’s unclear if they can reach a deal with Beltre, who already declined an arbitration offer from Seattle, which would’ve likely paid him close to his 2009 $12 million salary. If not, the Sox can always try to find a first-baseman and move Kevin Youkilis over to 3rd base.    

Yet, regardless of how the baseball aspects evolve, Lowell’s exit will leave a huge void in the Red Sox clubhouse.  Lowell was one of the most popular players on the team.  He’s been universally regarded as a classy, “good guy” on this team.  One of its leaders.  He’s always done what he could to help the team win.  Take the 2009 season, for example:  Lowell played with the effects of his hip injury and had to run the bases so slowly that it was painful to watch sometimes.  He always wanted to start and disliked missing games when he had to “rotate” in and out of the lineup after Victor Martinez’ arrival.

Lowell’s contributions to the Red Sox fantastic 2007 season will always be remembered.  Not only did he help get them there (121 RBIs, .324 average, 21 HRs, 191 hits) but, he was the MVP of the World Series.  Lowell became a solid, clutch hitter over his time with the Sox.

What moves will the Sox make now?

The Sox are still pursuing Jason Bay, and, it appears they’re competing with only one team – the New York Mets, who just offered Bay a four-year contract for a total of $65 million.  The Red Sox had offered Bay four years at $60 million.  The key is whether the Mets may be willing to offer Bay a 5th year.  If they do, the Sox will probably bow out of the competition.

If that  happens, they might pursue Matt Holliday, but, I now think it’s just as possible, if not more likely, that they’d find another player to play left-field.  I just don’t think the Sox will pay Holliday what his agent, Scott Boras, wants him to get.  Boras, at the winter meetings, made a laughable attempt to compare Holliday to Mark Teixeira, another of his clients, who got  a megadeal last winter.

The Red Sox will likely make a few more moves.  There will be some non-tendered players who become available in the next few days.  Right now, however, the Sox do not appear poised to make any blockbuster deals.  It seems Theo Epstein believes if they can get left-field set, their new 3rd baseman and shortstop – combined with having catcher Victor Martinez around all year – will do the trick.  We shall shee.

Meanwhile, there has been considerable talk among Boston sports pundits about Theo’s attempts to manage expectations for 2010.  Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy shared some of my outlook in a column yesterday about Theo trying to sell his “bridge” idea.  http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2009/12/10/fans_shouldnt_buy_red_sox_bridge/?p1=Well_MostPop_Emailed4

AJ: Rumor on Bradley to Boston Seems DOA

Big Mike, I just got a big kick out of watching a little television update on baseball’s winter meetings on the Comcast SportsNet New England. 

Sean McAdam, the CSNNE reporter and Lou Merloni, former Sox player-turned-commentator appeared on screen, and, at one point said there had been a low-level rumor that the Cubs were trying to trade Milton Bradley to the Red Sox.  (This speculation surfaced on other baseball websites in minor reports tonight – including one speculative item on a three way deal with the Sox, Cubs and another team)  Did you hear about it?

But, the funny part was McAdam and Merloni were SO negative in commenting on the mere possibility of Bradley coming here.  McAdam said Bradley would be like a combination of Manny Ramirez and Carl Everett.  (Everett caused far more problems here than Manny) Then, I noticed that Gordon Edes, former Boston Globe Sox beat, issued a line on Twitter saying: “Milton Bradley has a better shot at succeeding Ted Kennedy than he does of wearing a Red Sox uniform….unless I’ve completely lost my mind..”

McAdam said that if Red Sox officials saw Cubs’ Jim Hendy approaching them in the hallway, they should turn around and run in the opposite direction.

Having said all that, I hope Hendry finds a way to move Bradley so the Cubs CAN move on.  I’m in the birth stages of becoming a Cub fan, Big Mike.

AJ: Theo’s Trying Hard to Sell “A Bridge”

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein apparently has stressed to baseball reporters that his team is in a “bridge” period – a transition.  He’s saying the team has a few promising young players coming up, but they won’t be ready for the big leagues until the 2011 or 2012 seasons.

“We like our young players a lot,” Epstein told Sean McAdam of Comcast SportsNet New England. (CSNNE)  “but they’re not going to immediately impact the organization.  They’re still developing…We still think if we push the right buttons, we can be competitive at the very highest levels for the next two years,” Epstein told McAdam, who reported the GM’s remarks today on his CSNNE blog from baseball’s winter meetings.  “But we don’t want to compromise too much of the future for that competitiveness during the bridge period. ”

Theo is trying  to lower fans’ expectations for the 2010 season.  He began this “pitch” as soon as the 2009 season ended.   The Sox long-term deals with David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett will end after 2010 and the team is poised to get younger and add new talent.

Yet, Sox fans - including me – worry that Theo’s “bridge” may turn out to be a “bridge to nowhere” – to quote an incredibly over-rated, phony, right-wing female politician from Alaska.  Since when are Red Sox fans – especially those of us now accustomed to fielding competitive teams every year – going to accept Theo’s message, which seems to be “Hang in there – We’ll be getting better in a year or two.” 

It may be a rougher-than-usual year for fans and media in 2010.  Let’s face it:  We’re all spoiled as Sox fans in recent years.   The team has been very good year after year since 2003 or so.    The management team has been on a terrific run.  Are they due for a setback?  Maybe — but, I think the problem for owner John Henry, executive Larry Lucchino and Theo is that fans and media believe the Red Sox have some money to throw around right now.   The Sox recently raised ticket prices again, by the way.

No fans around here will soon forget the Mark Teixeira deal.  Instead of the Red Sox geting Teixeira, long coveted by Theo Epstein, he went to the Yankees, who simply outbid the Sox.  Now, maybe Teixeira’s wife wanted them to go to NY;  no one will probably know the whole story, but, in Boston, all that matters is that Teixeira was a KEY to the Yanks winning it all in 2009 — while his absence in Boston might have kept them from taking the titile.  Talk about a pivotal transaction for both teams! 

Where is all that Sox money not used to get Teixeira?  They got Victor Martinez for a lot less last summer, but the Sox haven’t made a big acquisition for some time.  Fans are still waiting for a big deal.

So, while the Yanks got Curtis Granderson, the word from the winter meetings is that the Sox are not going to get Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego; they’re extremely unlikely to get Miguel Cabrera from Detroit and, they’re unlikely to get Roy Halladay from Toronto.  The Sox are expected to get free agent Jason Bay back, or, if not, perhaps free agent Matt Holliday of St. Louis.

The Sox are reportedly talking to teams about trading Mike Lowell, but, it’s all speculative, and, really, is anyone they get in return likely to be a real hitting upgrade to Lowell, who can’t run well anymore, but, still hit last year.

In the end, McAdam told his CSSNE TV audience late last night he thinks it’s very possible the Sox will end up only with getting Jason Bay back — without any other big move.

Theo Epstein may be talking about his “bridge” during the entire summer of 2010.