Big Mike: Make All Little Plans

No Cubs plan that I recall has ever been holistic, as in What should we do as an organization to get to the World Series? Cubs plans have always been individual, discrete constructs, conceived in a vacuum.

For instance, the Cubs are pinning the future of the world on the so-far narrow shoulders of Starlin Castro. Officials in and out of the organization agree this kid has the stuff to be the real thing. As an added bonus — rare for a Cubs prospect — he knows how to play the game and works hard every day to get smarter.

Castro, though, has only played as high as Double A ball — and only for a bit more than a month last season. He’s 20 years old, to boot. Still, one or two voices within the organization are clamoring for him to make the team next year. Ryan Theriot has already been told to prepare for a move to second base soon.

Now, why wasn’t Theriot shifted to second long before this? The Cubs could have easily signed some low-cost, stopgap at short (as Boston did with A-Gon) and at least had a decent DP combo until this new messiah is ready. But no. We’ve had to put up with the scrappy little white guy’s six-foot-in-diameter range and his extremely limited bat for three years now — three years in which the Cubs have been division contenders. Ick.

Clearly there hasn’t even been a plan for the middle infield. Don’t expect D-Day plans from the Cubs when they can hardly figure out who to put on KP.

AJ: Team’s Handling of Media Is Indicator Too

Now, I’m really curious how media coverage of the Cubs compares to coverage of the Red Sox.    I’m sure that if we compared how the two teams handle the media, we’d get a glimpse of their overall approach to managing their respective organizations.

Big Mike, you observed that even though Jim Hendry enjoys talking to reporters, that you doubt he describes aspects of the team’s off-season plans.   I get that, but, don’t you agree that a GM can find ways to share some good, real information with the press?  I’m curious how Hendry describes the Cubs’ outlook and actions that are real — things that he can share.  Do the Cubs use the press to enhance the team and help it meet its objectives?

I raise this because I’ve seen the Red Sox successfully use the media in a variety of ways to advance their agenda and meet their objectives.   Even during the off-season. 

I’ve observed that the Red Sox,  during the Henry/Lucchino/Epstein era,  handle the media about a hundred times better than past management groups  during the rest of my life.  This is hardly a coincidence, but, instead, another sign that this group knows what they’re doing.

First, the Red Sox just excell at PR – across the board – beyond the 2004 and 2007 championships.  Second, the Sox have consistently been accessible to reporters.  They discuss what they’re doing whenever they can and seem to “get” that it’s their job to “feed” the insatiable appetites of Red Sox nation and the area (& national) media who cover the team.

Part of that has meant distributing “tidbits” of information to baseball writers even during this time of year.  So, the Sox find ways to keep talking to the top baseball writers – whether Peter Gammons or Buster Olney of ESPN or a few of the Boston Globe and Boston Herald’s veteran baseball writers.  Often, in the fall and early winter, that means discussing things in the zone between on-the-record and off-the-record — such as having facts or remarks attributed to ”sources” close to the team.   So, every off-season, we see the Red Sox surface in speculative stories or items about their talks regarding any quality player – such as the current examples of Blue Jays’ ace Roy Halliday or the Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera.  It makes the Red Sox appear to be involved in everything.  How does that hurt the team?

Larry Lucchino, Theo Epstein, (Manager) Terry Francona, Pitching Coach John Farrell and other Sox officials are, routinely, available to the press and willing to discuss most topics.  On occasion, they predictably “duck” sensitive topics such as the state of Josh Beckett’s arm.   New England Cable Sports Network (NESN), which covers every Sox game, has a lengthy pre-game and post-game show for every single Sox game — which is another vehicle the team uses to promote itself constantly.

The Red Sox and Cubs face very different circumstances, but, they’re both in very large media markets with loyal, enthusiastic fans.

I think if a team is “on-the-ball” generally, they’re often good at interacting with the media covering the team.  So, my question is whether we can draw any conclusions from examining how the Red Sox treat of the baseball media compared to the Cubs’ approach. 

I’ll be surprised, Big Mike, if you tell me that the Cubs are terrific with the media.   Am I right?

Big Mike: What’s Going Through Hungry Jim’s Mind?

The truth of the matter, AJ, is that I won’t know what the Cubs are doing this off-season until they do it. The blogosphere and the paps are filled with every rumor imaginable. Rarely, if ever, do any turn out.

A GM gets zero benefit from telling the world what he’s up to. For instance, every dope who can tap a keyboard has written about how Hungry Jim Hendry is standing on his head to trade Milton Bradley. I’ve been posting here as if Hendry’s got a cauliflower ear from phoning other GMs about his most chuckleheaded free agent signing.

But guess what — none of that supposed inside dope has been supplied by Hungry Jim himself. In fact, he has said several times that Bradley may well be the Cubs’ starting rightfielder in 2010. Yet when he says that, the keyboard clackers roar as if he’s just delivered his version of the aristocrats joke.

Any info I pass on here will be based solely on my guesses and Hendry’s and the Cubs’ past performances.

I scroll through the comments on fan sites like Bleed Cubbie Blue and, if I didn’t know better, I’d think they were written by moles hiding out under Hendry’s credenza. It may be true that Hendry is an unusually open and forthcoming GM. He loves to talk — even to reporters. Still, I can’t see him disclosing the action plan he and his staff came up with after the season.

I know that Hendry thinks the team is a lot better than I do. Not because he has said so but simply because that’s how he’s been acting the last six and a half years. I know about his overinflated assessment of the Cubs the way I know Sarah Palin’s going to say something really stupid again. Now, she hasn’t sent me a secret cable tipping me off. But I know.

Most hot stove rumors are generated by sportswriters looking to fill a hole and player agents hoping to amp up interest in their clients. That’s why the off-season rumor mill is a pile of horseshit.

Lemme give you an example. Bill Veeck told this story in one of his books. The old peg-legged White Sox owner loved to sit and booze up with reporters, shooting the shit for hours on end. One night, in a hotel bar, Veeck and a bunch of beat guys started talking about hot stove rumors — how they get started, how they travel, and how long they take to get around the baseball world. One guy suggested they concoct a ridiculous rumor out of thin air right there at the table and then see how long it would take to come back to them.

Veeck and the reporters suggested one inane scenario after another. Finally, one of them came up with the topper. Yogi Berra was known around the baseball world as rather modestly endowed when it came to brains. He was very easy going and easily distracted. He had no over-riding ambition other than to show up for the next day’s game. He also was coming to the end of his playing days. Okay, the rumor would be this: the Boston Red Sox were in secret negotiations with Yogi Berra to become their manager after he retired as a player. Beautiful.

The idea was about as ridiculous as suggesting Pete Rose will become the new commish after Bud Selig retires in 2012.

Veeck and the reporters went their separate ways, promising to whisper the phony rumor to as many other beat writers and baseball officials as they could. Sure enough, before a couple of days went by, papers were running the rumor that the Bosox were thinking of hiring Berra as field boss.

Here’s where the story gets perverse. The Yankees’ owners at that time were preparing to sell the team (CBS eventually bought them after the 1964 season.) They weren’t interested in any kind of publicity that might diminish the value of their property. They read the papers, too, and believed the rumor about Yogi. Berra was a beloved fan favorite and the Yankees weren’t about to allow him to become manager of the rival Red Sox. It also just so happened that manager Ralph Houk was going to be kicked upstairs to the front office. So what did the Yankees do? They hired Yogi Berra as manager for the 1964 season.

That’s right, not only had the most inane rumor imaginable earned the authority of the written word, it had come true!

Admittedly, this is an off-the-rails example. Still, my philosophy on rumors is I don’t know nothin’ until I know somethin’.

As opposed to the typical Cubs GM who just doesn’t know nothin’. To be frank, my guess is Hungry Jim has no fully defined plan for 2010. Look at what he’s done since he’s taken over and tell me if you can discern any kind of a plan.

AJ: What’s the Cub/Hub comparison now?

Big Mike, you agreed with my opinion that the Cubs seem to get stuck in a waiting pattern.  

Let me ask you this:  Do you think the Cubs are doing the right things so far in this off-season?  I mean:  Have they analyzed the team’s strengths and weaknesses accurately?  Do they know which needs they’re more likely to address with signing free agents, trades, signing non-tendered players OR bringing up minor-leaguers?

Have the Cubs identified how much they can spend in the off-season and why?  Are they sure they want most of their starting players to return?

OK, then, there is this:  What have the Cubs done – so far – to get themselves in the best position to acquire the new players they need?  Who’s working the phones with which teams to keep updated constantly?

I raise these points because I’m curious if the Cubs often are in the thick of some of this off-season exploration, and, then, just lose out on gettng the players OR do the Cubs not communicate as much as they should?

The reason I’m curious is that the Red Sox, during the John Henry/Larry Lucchino/Theo Epstein era, have always been extremely “involved” in off-season dialogue with other teams – and, manuevering – and, ultimately, often making deals.

For example, look at the situation NOW:  As I write this, the Red Sox, according to press reports, are in touch with the Toronto Blue Jays about the possibility of trading for Jays’ ace, Roy Halliday.  Supposedly, the Jays want Clay Buchholz and the Sox minor-leaguer, Casey Kelley, and it’s unclear if they’ll reach a deal.  The Red Sox, reportedly are contemplating whether to pursue Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers.  They’re reportedly thinking about acquiring Marco Scutaro of the Blue Jays.   The Sox will soon meet with Josh Beckett to discuss his future. (He’s expected back for his final year in 2010)

Perhaps a sole example is a better one to highlight to make my point – and, that is that the Red Sox seem to always explore ways to get better.   Example:  Instead of signing veteran shortstop Alex Gonzalez to return in 2010 for a lower salary, Gonzalez just signed with the Blue Jays for a one-year of $2.75 million with a club option of $2.5 million in 2011.  Some are criticizing the Sox for letting Gonzo leave.  I am not because I assume the Sox have a decent alternative in mind. 

Clearly, the Sox could have proposed a deal at a similar amount for Gonzalez to stay with the team, but, they, apparently, are willing to take a risk to bring someone new in to improve the position.  The speculation is that the Sox were not pleased with Gonza;ez’ fairly low OBP (and hitting, generally) and that they may pursue Scutaro as a replacement to share the shortstop position with Jed Lowrie.  Lowrie, the team feels, has to prove he can get through a season without more injuries, so, he’s expected to play shortstop only part of the time.

My point:  Despite Gonzalez performing quite well for the Sox in 2009 after joining the team at mid-season,  Theo and Company want the team go get better at shortstop.  They’re not satisfied enough.   So,  even though Epstein has taken tremendous criticism for not solidifying this position, he’s out exploring again.

That the Sox are even pursuing Halliday is impressive.  The Red Sox need hitting more than anything, but, every off-season, they re-examine their roster and try to make any moves they can to improve.  Now, I sometimes disagree, in extremes, with the moves they make – but, at least, they’re in the mix, making moves.

Big Mike, are Jim Hendry and the Cubs doing the same thing right now?  To your satisfaction? 

I’m convinced that a team has to be very active in the off-season.  How the Cubs pass that test is an important indicator of their chances to ever win a title.

Big Mike: The Hall

AJ, here’s your 2010 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot, released yesterday.

• Roberto Alomar
• Kevin Appier
• Harold Baines
• Bert Blyleven
• Ellis Burks
• Andre Dawson
• Andres Galarraga
• Pat Hentgen
• Mike Jackson
• Eric Karros
• Ray Lankford
• Barry Larkin
• Edgar Martinez
• Don Mattingly
• Fred McGriff
• Mark McGwire
• Jack Morris
• Dale Murphy
• Dave Parker
• Tim Raines
• Shane Reynolds
• David Segui
• Lee Smith
• Alan Trammel
• Robin Ventura
• Todd Zeile

I want to hear who your choices will be. But not before I force mine on you. First I’ll weed out the blatantly undeserving.

• Kevin Appier: Looked like a real comer in the early 90s. Won 18 games and led the AL in ERA as a 25-year-old in 1993. He’d pitched more innings that year than he ever had before so naturally he went to hell in ’94. Came back to become a nice number three starter for five years and then was finished. MG vote: No.
• Ellis Burks: Nice little player throughout the 90s. Even put up a monster season in ’96, albeit in Coors Field. I’m not in favor of putting nice little players in the Hall of Fame. MG vote: Nah.
• Pat Hentgen: An ace, winning the AL Cy Young in ’96, a year when nobody else seemed to want to take it. Fell off the face of the Earth after the age of 28. MG vote: No.
• Mike Jackson: A longtime mediocre reliever who happened to save 79 games over two seasons for the Tribe in ’98 and ’99. MG vote: Nope.
• Eric Karros: Smart, good-looking, articulate. I loved this guy with the star-crossed 2003 Cubs. He videotaped the entire season with his handheld recorder, even playing auteur in the dugout. I recall reading he’d wanted to make a documentary about the season but I haven’t heard anything about it since. As a ballplayer, he was Steve Garvey Lite for about six years. MG vote: Meh.
• Ray Lankford: One of those stereotypical speedy Cards outfielders, he played 14 years in the bigs and made the all-star team once in his very best season. MG vote: Yawn.
• Shane Reynolds: A nice pitcher until the Astros moved from the dome to Enron Field (betchya forgot about that name!) In the cozier new digs, his ERA jumped a run-plus. MG vote: Nix.
• David Segui: A decent switch-hitter whose best year came in 2000 when everybody and his brother was whacking the shit out of the ball. MG vote: Hell no.
• Todd Zeile: I don’t know exactly why, but I never liked this guy. I don’t remember his face nor did he do anything rotten off the field that I know of. Maybe it’s his name. I’m prejudiced against guys named Todd. Played for 11 different teams. He had just enough talent to make the next team hope he could contribute something, and he occasionally did. MG vote: Sorry, Todd.

That gets nine pretenders out of the way. Now let’s look at the guys on the cusp.

• Harold Baines: Bill Veeck and Roland Hemond fell in love with this suburban Baltimore kid. They loved his swing and his emotional make-up. He wouldn’t bat an eye if a bomb went off next to him. He played for a million years (okay, 22) and was a feared, effective hitter for all but the last three. He didn’t accumulate any of the glory stats, though, falling short of 3000 hits, for instance, by 134. I’d put him on the Hall of Very Good. MG vote: Sadly, no.
• Andre Dawson: Cubs fans are really agitating for The Hawk to be elected. He, along with Dale Murphy, set the standard for centerfielders in the NL until he was 27. Unfortunately, he played on Le Stade Olympique’s concrete surface until his creaky knees couldn’t bear the pain anymore. When he achieved free agency, he and his agent surmised, accurately, that he ought to go to a cozy ballpark with natural grass so he begged Cubs GM Dallas Green to sign him. Oops, that was the off-season of collusion and Green, under orders from his masters, refused him. Dawson simply took a hotel room outside Phoenix and showed up at the Cubs spring training headquarters every day, even going so far as to present a blank contract to the Cubs receptionist for delivery to Green. Effectively shamed into it, Green inked him for a paltry half a mill for the 1987 season. Dawson promptly won the MVP award (which, by the way, he didn’t deserve — Darryl Strawberry, Eric Davis, Murphy, Tony Gwynn, Tim Raines, and the Clarks (Jack and Will) had better years than he did. But he hit 49 homers and led the league in RBI so the old bloc of voters who worshipped the RBI shoed him in. Dawson played out the rest of his career on knees so ravaged that it was actually painful to watch him run. Had he been able to play center for most of his career on good hinges, I might put him in. In reality, though, he was done in by his body. He’s on the very lip of the Hall. He doesn’t fall into the cup. MG vote: No.
• Andres Galarraga. His name sounded like Harry Caray gargling and, oh!, did Harry mangle it. He was good until he went to Coors Field at the age of 32, whereupon he became a monster. I take a lot of points away from hitters who put up Coors-inflated stats. MG vote: Uh uh.
• Don Mattingly: Another guy betrayed by his body. Mattingly for a time seemed to want to challenge Willie McCovey for the mantle of finest first baseman of my lifetime (remember, he played pre-Pujols/Thomas/McGwire/Bagwell.) The southern Indiana boy with the fireman’s mustache wiped the bases clean for several years, sending Rickey Henderson scampering home hundreds of times. Then his back went bad before he hit 30 years old. As with Dawson, I can’t credit him with what-ifs. MG vote: A reluctant no.
• Fred McGriff: The Crime Dog. This is the 80s-90s player casual fans should be chirping about rather than Joe Carter. McGriff actually got on base — his career OBP was 71 points higher than Benny Jay’s boyfriend and his slugging percentage was 45 points better. Fred McGriff, along with Eddie Murray, might have been the most consistent hitter of his generation. He was good. No, he was very good. He was almost excellent. But not quite. MG vote: I wish I could but I can’t.
• Jack Morris: The old guard award-voters who worshipped the RBI for hitters also slavishly adored the win stat for pitchers. Now, of course, we understand that pitchers’ wins are much more team-dependent than the old boys previously thought. Morris led the majors in wins through the 80s. Then he pitched the no-hitter against the defending division-champ Whte Sox at their home opener in ’84 and that spectacular 10-inning 1-0 World Series-clinching complete game against the Braves and he became a near-legend. For my money, he was a smart, durable pitcher who benefitted from excellent run-support throughout his career. I’d want him on my team. I’d win a championship or two with him. I don’t want him in the Hall of Fame although I wouldn’t protest if he makes it. MG vote: A tepid no.
• Dale Murphy: A tall, gawky catcher, Murphy switched to centerfield in 1980. It was early evidence that the man who dictated the switch, Bobby Cox, was a budding genius. Murphy hit the ball like a heavy-legged brute and ran down flies like a fleet singles hitter.  He absolutely deserved those successive MVPs and probably should have one one or two more. Poor guy, he only got to play in one post-season with Atlanta’s fluke division titlist in ‘82. A smart hitter, he learned how to take pitches as his career went on. Had he played in a World Series or two or been a Yankee or Red Sox, he’d have had an altar erected to him already. MG vote: Not this year, but I might change my mind in the future.
• Dave Parker: Long after he’d kicked his cocaine monkey, Parker rumbled around the outfield with some 30-plus extra pounds on him, causing White Sox announcer Jimmy Piersall to label him a Baby Hippo. He might have been a Hall of Famer had he been able to resist his twin urges for white powder and Big Macs. Again, I don’t give points for what-ifs. MG vote: No.
• Lee Smith: Dubbed “Smoke-’em” by that literary titan Benny Jay, Smith took advantage of the Cubs’s late afternoon starts in the early 80s, scaring the bejesus out of opposition batters with a 95-mph fastball coming out of the shadows. He amassed several hundred thousand saves, a stat that other literary titan, David K. Fremon, never failed to deride. Smith’s trade to the Hub for the execrable Calvin Schiraldi and the ho-hum Al Nipper was prima facie evidence that Cubs GM Jim Frey was a psychotic serial killer. After the deal, a shocked LA skipper Tommy LaSorda observed that had he known Smith was on the market, he’d have actually offered the Cubs some useful players in exchange. Smith was terrific for a long time but his heater was fairly straight so he could be hit on ill-timed occasions. He doesn’t rank with the immortals: Gossage, Fingers, Eckersley and Rivera. MG vote: No.
• Robin Ventura: Anyone who ranks as the best player at his position in a team’s history has to be considered. Ventura was the White Sox’ greatest third baseman ever. Admittedly, the competition wasn’t that fierce (Willie Kamm? Beltin’ Bill Melton? Ugh!) but Ventura was a fine player who snapped his ankle in a ‘97 spring training game so gruesomely that I’m sorta nauseated just thinking about it. The 46-year-old Nolan Ryan played a tune on his skull with his right fist when Ventura charged the mound in a ’96 game. A very good player — not a Hall of Famer. MG vote: Out.

And now, my Hall of Fame choices for 2010:

• Roberto Alomar: Forget the fact that he spit in umpire Mark Hirschbeck’s face (and that for Hirschbeck calling him a “little fag” — Alomar had been the subject of rumors about his sexual orientation for his entire career,) Alomar was the standard for second sackers from the age of 20 until he was 33. He was traded and allowed to take free agent walks a lot because of those suspicions, I’d guess. Were I a GM I’d have never let this guy go anywhere. Then he seemed to lose his bat as well as his way in his mid-30s. My guess is he didn’t take PED’s, otherwise, he’d have been able to stay healthier and stronger as he aged — he had to bear those rumors, too. A maligned player for all his greatness. One of the ten best major league second basemen of all time.
• Barry Larkin: He was Derek Jeter before there was a Derek Jeter. Had Larkin been a Met or Yankee, there’d be expressways named after him. His MVP year wasn’t even his best season (he was even better the next year.) Larkin is one of the ten best shortstops ever to play in the majors.
• Edgar Martinez: I hate the DH rule. I know pitchers can’t hit, but neither could Brad Ausmus or Adam Everett. Are we gonna put in batters for them, too. There’s a trade-off you have to consider when you have a brainy field general like Ausmus or a glove wizard like Everett — do his other attributes outweigh his putridness at bat? That’s what I like about baseball. But the reality is we have the DH and Edgar was the greatest of them all. He played his career in the Kingdome (so-so for hitters) and Safeco Field (death for hitters) so he overcame a lot. Surprisingly, his home and away career splits are almost even. A pure hitter. I wish he’d played the field; then I’d be happier making this choice.
• Mark McGwire: I don’t care what the hell he put into his body (although no one has ever proved he took any banned substances.) McGwire and Ruth are quite simply the greatest home run hitters of all time. If he hadn’t suffered injuries in the middle of his career, he would have hit as many dingers as Willie Mays — and in a much shorter career. Some might complain hit hit only .264 for his career but, man, he got on base almost 40 percent of the time. His career OBP was better than Rod Carew’s, Honus Wagner’s, Tony Gwynn’s and only four points shy of Joe Dimaggio’s! He’s gotta be in.
• Tim Raines: This is my idiosyncratic selection. I loved this guy. He was Rickey Henderson’s little brother. A great player who kept his cocaine in his uniform pants pocket while playing, Raines was nailed for the drug after his rookie season and had to learn how to play all over again without it. In fact, his nickname, Rock, comes from the drug lexicon of the day. Speedy, smart, always on base, Raines was one of the most underrated players of the 80s. He won’t get in and that’s really not a tragedy but I liked him and I’d vote for him.
• Finally, Alan Trammell: The next manager of the Cubs. Lou Piniella’s bench coach was one half of the greatest double-play combination of all time. Trammell and Lou Whitaker were the rock (no, not that kind) upon which any Detroit success in the late 70s and throughout the 80s was built. He should have been the 1987 MVP but the old fuddy-duddies instead selected the lumbering George Bell who happened to lead the league in RBI. Trammell was the equal of Cal Ripken and Robin Yount, contemporaries who’ve been deservedly enshrined.

There it is, AJ. Now let’s here from you.

Big Mike: The Waiters

You’ve hit it right on the head, AJ. The Cubs — fans included — have never been anything other than waiters.

The ticket-buying, TV-watching, radio-listening, newspaper- and blog-reading public has been waiting for more than a century.

It takes a guy from goddamned Boston to point out that the the successive brain trusts in charge of the team have been waiting, too.

Never in my memory has a Cubs GM said, in effect, We’re going for it all this year. Nor has any said Screw it, we’re blowing up what we’ve got and starting all over again. Even the great back-up-the-truck off-season of 1973-74 was less a blowing up of the roster than sort of a mass rolling out of the old folks to a retirement village.

What I’m talking about is what the Blue Jays did after the 1990 season. They realized they’d become a good team. For the previous eight years, they’d won 86-99 games every year. Yet they hadn’t even played in the World Series and, really, only came close to it once. The architect of that fine team, Pat Gillick decided to roll the dice and trade his leadoff-man shortstop and his clean-up hitting first baseman. In return, he got a future Hall of Fame second baseman and a slugging right fielder. The Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez swap for San Diego’s Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter was one of the two most dramatic trades of my lifetime (the other was Bonds for Murcer.

Within three years of that deal, Toronto had won two World Series.

Of course, the trade could have been a disaster for Gillick. I’d rather have McGriff than Carter and Alomar, 22 at the time, was good and exciting but no one could have known what he’d become. The point is, Gillick got tired of waiting. He forced the issue. He made a change. And his gamble won.

Had a Cubs boss magically found himself in the seat of power in Toronto — say Larry Himes or Bob Kennedy, any of them for that matter  – he’d have preached patience. He’d have waited. He have said We’ve been fine for eight years, why rock the boat?

Gillick figured averaging 90 wins a year but never even playing for the big trophy just wasn’t good enough. He was right — lucky, sure — but right.

Take a key moment in recent Cubs history. A year after being the worst team in the league, the 1998 Cubs rode Sammy Sosa’s bat to a wild card berth in the playoffs. They had an intriguing pitching staff comprised of wily vets and flame-throwing kids. They had a little bit of talent on the field besides Sosa — Mark Grace was still whacking the ball around, Henry Rodriguez could hit a homer or two, Glenallen Hill was the personification of the kind of deadly, professional hitter a good team needs off the bench and Brant Brown looked as though he might become a nice platoon player.

They also had Gary Gaetti, who’d been signed in mid-August after being released by the Cardinals and responded by hitting the ball for a month and a half as he’d never done in his life.

The arrow was pointing up for the Cubs. What they needed to do was aggressively address their needs and weaknesses. Instead, they decided to wait. The big story in the off-season following the Cubs’ three-and-out versus the Braves in the NLDS was Gaetti’s free agency. Ed Lynch re-signed Gaetti and acted as though he’d bought a world championship.

Only Gary Gaetti, nicknamed The Rat and famous for flashing I-love-Jesus signs at the camera during an all-star appearance ten years before, was 40 fucking years old! He’d been released by the Angels, allowed to walk by the Royals and released by St. Louis all in the previous five years. He was ancient and no good anymore.

Any decent organization would have shaken his hand, told him thanks for everything and wished him good luck in his future endeavors. Not the Cubs. GM Ed Lynch looked at his blistering month and a half with the team and figured, Hey, this guy’s good! Let’s sign him up, pencil him in at third and put him in the middle of the batting order.

Gary Gaetti in 1999 hit .204 with nine home runs. The Cubs lost 95 games and finished last.

We’re still waiting.

AJ: Cubs should act more, wait less

Big Mike:  I like Part One of your Plan for the Cubs.   I don’t want to rub it in, but the Red Sox are doing most of those things — and that won’t surprise you.  I recall when they started redefining scouts’ duties by area;  in particular, their efforts to establish ties to baseball in Japan.  Of course, that took off when they signed Daisuke Matsuzaka.  I’ll wait for your next installment before responding more, but, right now, I’m compelled to comment on one important point:

Your strategic thinking is impressive, but what have the Cubs done when things go wrong?  What will Hendry and Company do in 2010 when things start to unfold and they have to deal with unforeseen developments?

What I sense with the Cubs is that when a bad GM or manager is in place, everyone waits around – rolls their eyes – and waits for that person to leave.  Good plans are important, but, a team has to take action to address problems and situations as they unfold.  The Cubs dont’ do that well, do they?

There has to be a high standard, and, then, a dynamic that when certain things are not happening, management will find ways to MAKE them happen.  So, for example, when Grady Little left Pedro Martinez in Game 7 of the 2003 ACLS in one of the worst managerial blunders ever,  the Sox team of Henry/Lucchino/Epstein decided to fire Little.   Some might say that was easy, but, in the old days, Little would have been retained for 2004.  Instead, Terry Francona was hired and you know the rest.  A second example:  The Sox hiring of pitching coach John Farrell, who will be around for at least one more year.  I don’t know how they enticed Farrell to come to Boston, but, as I’ve written here, I think, Farrell is such an outstanding person to have with this team.  The best communicator about pitching the Sox have had in my lifetime.  He’s got leadership skills, people skills — The pitchers love Farrell and respect him.

These personnel decisions are KEY – and how the manager and GM communicate with players.  In Boston, players in recent years have felt management at least tries to treat them decently, apprise them of things and put them in a position to win.  I’ll discuss the relationship between Theo Epstein and Francona another time.

By the way, the rumors are swirling all over the place today about the Sox going after Roy Halliday – for Clay Buccholz and, maybe Casey Kelly, their great young prospect.

Big Mike: A Winning Philosophy

Nice analysis of the Cabrera-to-Boston rumor, AJ. I take issue only with one thing you wrote in the post — and a tangential one, at that. Adrian Beltre is, in my not-at-all humble opinion, pretty much an average MLB hitter over his career, based on OPS+ and other metrics. He did have that one fantastic year, 2004, but it was the mother of all outliers. That said, I think he’d be a good pickup at a reasonable price ($7-10M/year) because his glove is superlative. He’s the finest fielding third baseman since Graig Nettles/Ron Santo/Brooks Robinson.

How right you also were in a previous post wherein you stated the Red Sox have become a proactive organization. Theo is always thinking, always trying to create scenarios, always looking for ways to move ahead. My boys, sadly, are react-ers.

Hungry Jim Hendry, like his predecessors, makes no moves that demonstrate to the fans, the league and his players who the Cubs are and what they stand for. It is not now and has never been an organization with a plan.

Let me amend that. For three straight off-seasons, following the 2006-08 campaigns, Hungry Jim did make a statement of philosophy with his moves, albeit the dumbest one a GM with a pocketful of cash can make. The Cubs philosophy those years was We’re gonna throw money around without rhyme or reason. It reached its inevitable, ludicrous nadir with the signing of Milton Bradley.

Now the Cubs have no cash left to spend. The team has gaping holes in center and right, with question marks or merely adequate answers at second, short and catcher. There are no easily tradable parts, what with all the NTC deals Hendry is so in love with.  Ick.

My hope was that when the new owner took over, his first move would have been to wave bye-bye to Hungry Jim and hire someone who’d represent a new line of thinking. Instead, Tom Ricketts’ first big announcement was that Hendry isn’t going anywhere. Maybe Ricketts didn’t want to eat the final three years of Hendry’s contract. But I’d guess Hendry makes $1-1.5M a year (details of management deals are not public, as players’ are.) I would think Ricketts can swallow that kind of buyout so all I can do is scratch my head. Of course, I’ve been scratching my head over the Cubs for 40 years.

I’m still intrigue by the possibility of Billy Beane operating with a $140M budget. Of course, we’ve seen what one of his acolytes, JP Ricciardi, could do while waving handfuls of cash (Frank Thomas, BJ Ryan, Vernon Wells and so on.) Maybe Beane would blow working under the pressure to win a World Series with a big market team rather than just being decent in a small market. We may never know. But at least he’d have a plan.

Here’s what my plan would be:

• Commit the farm system to developing catchers, shortstops, second basemen and centerfielders. The strength of almost any championship-caliber team is up the middle. It’s a cliche but it’s all too true. Whenever the system comes up with a slugging corner infielder or outfielder, immediately start considering what he might bring in trade.
• Develop a Cubs Way playbook that delineates what every player should do in every possible scenario on the field. I remember reading about Harry Dalton’s manual, distributed to all players in the Orioles system and on the parent club when he was the boss in Baltimore. It literally told pitchers which way to turn their bodies after they’d taken the throw for the out at first base with other runners on base.
• Set up a management system with clear responsibilities and boundaries. The general manager should set the course; the manager follows it.
• Have pitching coaches in both the majors and minors work with in-house kinesiologists to monitor and adjust pitchers’ throwing motions and workout regimens.
• Expand scouting into sub-departments that would handle China, South Korea, Japan, Mexico, Cuba, the rest of the Caribbean, and South America. Add a couple of at-large scouts who’d handle Europe and Australia.
• The major league 25-man roster ideally should be comprised of about 10 players who came up through the system, seven or eight who arrived via trade and six or seven through free agency and waivers. That core of ten homegrown players should include at least three up the middle players.
• Players who exhibit poor grasp of fundamentals should be dealt or released as soon as possible. For instance, an outfielder doesn’t have to be a greyhound, but he must take good routes to the ball, hit the cutoff man, throw to the right base, not try to throw home for the spectacular putout that allows other runners to move up, etc. Tim Raines was an excellent example of this. He didn’t have a good arm at all but always made the right throw and was always in perfect fielding position. He never won a Gold Glove but he never hurt his team in the field, either.
• Hitters must think about making the pitcher throw the highest number of pitches possible. This accomplishes two things: first, it maximizes the chance the hitter will see a pitch he can optimally handle and second, it makes the pitcher work harder, hopefully shortening his stay on the mound.
• Conversely, pitchers must think about throwing the fewest number of pitches to each batter for all the reverse reasons.
• Seek smart starting pitchers who actually know how to pitch economically and efficiently. I’d rather have a starting staff comprised of durable, wiley vets whose Runs Allowed averages are normal or better than one with an ace and a lot of question marks. Ted Lilly is the ideal pitcher for my team. I wouldn’t stand on my head trying to sign Tim Lincecum to a huge free agent deal in three years. In fact, I wouldn’t stand on my head to retain him even if my system had produced him. His salary would be far to great a chunk of my pitching budget.

I have more philosophies that I’ll share with you in a later post.

AJ: Homework Needed Before Signing Cabrera

Big Mike,  I’m interested in the rumors about Miguel Cabrera , but, for some reason, I want more information on this guy before the Red Sox get close to any deal.  I do recognize his tremendous talent, but, I don’t feel giddy with anticipation — yet.   Part of it is I’ve seen very little of Cabrera.

His contract is HUGE and lasts SIX more years!  That makes me feel cautious right away.  He’ll earn $20 million in 2010 and 2011; then, $21 million the next two years and $22 million for the last two.

So, here are a few large questions:  1)  What about his off-field problems?  I know only the news reports about an incident with his wife at the end of the 2009 season and speculation about a possible drinking problem.  Maybe there’s nothing there, but, obviously, the Red Sox need to check that out.  2) Could Cabrera handle playing in Boston?  Not all players can.  It’s a tough market to tolerate.  Ask Edgar Renteria or many others who struggled in Beantown, and, then returned to form after they left.  So, Cabrera would have to be able to handle ups and downs, an obsessive, critical fan base and constant pressure to perform;  3) Is Cabrera someone the team wants to hold onto and build around for the next six years?  4) Would Cabrera be happy in Boston?

If the answers to all these questions are satisfactory, then this may be one of the most important deals the Sox will make in many years. 

Meanwhile, Theo Epstein has not given away any hints about what the team is contemplating.  In fact, in an excerpt of an interview played on the radio today, Theo sounded like he was trying to lower everyone’s expectations and alluded to the challenging transition the team was in.   He mentioned plans to “solidify” the shortstop position, but that may mean re-signing Alex Gonzalez.  It’s unclear.

I think the most interesting news tidbit or rumor for the Sox in the past 48 hours has been the report that the team is “shopping” Mike Lowell to teams with the understanding that the Sox would eat up to half of his $12 million contract.  I, for one, now think this is likely to become a reality - and that  Lowell will be traded.   First, the team supposedly was preparing to trade him last winter – if they had gotten Mark Teixeira.  Second, Lowell could barely run around the bases last season due to his hip injury.  He was a real liability on the basepaths and the team doesn’t know how much that will improve.  Third, as I heard expressed on the radio today, Lowell was never one of Theo’s choices; rather, he came with Josh Beckett in that deal – which was made while Theo was on hiatus back in 2005.  Fourth, it sort of makes sense for the team to try to cut ties with either Lowell or David Ortiz – given their age, likely continued decline in skills and uncertainty.  Lastly, if the Sox are going to make a big deal for a slugger like Cabrera (or another star) – then, this makes room for Youkilis to move to third base while Miguel plays first

I’ve read that Theo has always liked Adrian Beltre, a damned good hitter, who I think may become available.  Who knows?

The bottom-line, Big Mike, is that getting Miguel Cabrera – at this moment – seems too good to be true for me.  If it happens, I’ll probably gush about it on this blog later.

 

Big Mike: Wherein I Commence Solving The Red Sox’ Problems

AJ, get down on your knees and pray tonight to the god that I don’t believe in that Theo gets Miguel Cabrera.

The Tigers, apparently, have him on the block. I guess they’re shedding payroll which is a damned shame. They came back from that nearly historic, disastrous 2003 season to make the World Series three years later. They’ve got talent but don’t want to pay for it anymore. The fans, apparently, be damned.

Cabrera first came to my attention in ‘03. I won’t be more specific other than to say I loathe the Florida Marlins (Dusty Baker, too.) The man can rake. If Theo sends a package led by Buchholz to Motown, you’ve got one of your two needed sluggers.

If it happens, what would you do? Move Youkilis to third and have Cabrera play first, or vice versa?