The Red Sox have played like a better team of late. Pitchers Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, along with a rejuvenated David Ortiz, have carried them. The Sox, after a terrible start, have climbed back into the race for the AL East. Lester and Buchholz have both been on unstoppable “rolls” and Big Papi was MLB’s “Player of the Month” in May, batting .363. hitting 10 HRs and knocking in 27 RBIs.
So, why am I so unconvinced today that they will play good, consistent baseball for enough of the summer to keep competing with the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees?
I have quite a few reasons, actually:
1) The Red Sox need more of their players to step up and share the load. All season, the Sox have relied on just a handful of players while overcoming large gaps in their lineup. Eventually, JD Drew and others have to hit better or the team needs to add a hitter. One cannot expect Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, and, the ”hot and cold” Ortiz to do all the hitting.
2) John Lackey needs to find his old “heater.” Lackey, who kept the team in the game yesterday against the lowly Baltimore Orioles, still has not found his top form after two months. Though no one is discussing it, I think there is something seriously wrong with Lackey’s fastball. I’ve watched just enough of him to notice that he’s relied more heavily on his excellent curveball this year than he has in the past. Lackey normally has had a terrific moving fastball, which he can locate with pinpoint control. His velocity in the past few seasons has been in the low 90′s, but, with that zip that keeps the ball spinning as it crosses the plate. This year, I’ve noticed way too many of Lackey’s fastballs float to the plate, looking more “straight” and hittable than usual. Yesterday, I was thinking about this after watching a couple of innings of the game. I got into my car and heard Red Sox announcer Dave O’Brian basically say: “Lackey’s throwing the ball at about 89 mph or less today,” noting his velocity was particularly low. So, what’s going on with Lackey? Is he hurt, perhaps? Can he get his speed back by adjusting his motion?
Whatever it is, I feel Lackey has to demonstrate to me that there is nothing wrong with his arm. Without his old, sharp fastball, he will continue to be average. And, despite his 6-3 record, Lackey has been, unmistakeably, “average.” His ERA is 4.72. He’s walking many more hitters than usual. Further, Lackey has pitched only one or two games that could be considered “excellent” all year.
3) The Sox Mediocre “Fill-in” Outfielders. Darnell McDonald contributed to a few wins with his bat when he first was called up in April to replace the injured Jacoby Ellsbury, but, he’s a sub-par outfielder, and, over time, revealed as a very limited hitter. Billy Hall, the Sox’ utiliity player, is a poor outfield and another weak hitter. The Red Sox badly miss Ellsbury, who has missed almost the whole year after fracturing his ribs in a collision with Adrian Beltre in April. Ellsbury seems determined to avoid returning until he’s close to full strength. The question lingers whether he’ll feel strong enough all season to return to form. Perhaps not, and, that’d leave the Sox with a mediocre outfield. The third outfielder JD Drew is having a typically “quiet” season. Typically, as in past seasons, Drew often has disappointing at-bats that end with dribblers to second-base. Occasionally, he looks terrific at the plate, belting a few line-drive hits, but, then returns to his sub-par play.
4) Can David Ortiz keep hitting well? Big Papi’s bat quieted down over the weekend vs. the Orioles. He was incredible in May, having one of his best months ever as a hitter as he bolted out of his miserable April slump. However, I just doubt that Papi can be counted on as this kind of slugger through September. I can see him having the same kind of season as in 2009, when he hit “mistake pitches” against average teams well while hitting more inconsistently vs. teams like the Rays or Yanks. Right now, Youkilis is, by far, the best hitter on this team. Youk can hit for contact and power; he has a fantastic eye, and, he walks a lot. The Red Sox need another consistent slugger to stay in the race until October. Can Theo Epstein find one at the trading deadline? Who would the new hitter replace? These are large uncertainties. Without more punch, however, I see the Sox relying too much on great pitching and winning close, low-scoring games. That’s not a formula for success.
5) Josh Beckett’s Status Has Gone from “Shaky/Questionable” to “Poor/Uncertain.” On May 19, Beckett was placed on the Disabled List due to back problems, but, the cause of greater concern is that in late May, he tried throwing a bullpen session and experienced pain behind his shoulder. The team wisely shut Beckett down after concern that he might exacerbate his problems by altering his motion, but, now, he’s not expected back on the mound until late June at the earliest. Even then, do we know what’s up with Beckett? He’s suffered injuries or ailments during the end of the past two seasons, and, one has to wonder if his arm may require more attention or rest. Beckett’s health is key. If he’s in top form, it makes the Sox rotation potentially dazzling. Without him, they’re more vulnerable to the bad starts of Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield. Now, Beckett is 1-1 with a 7.29 ERA.
6) Daisuke Matsuzaka still does not look in his top form – either. I already raised questions about Lackey’s fastball. Well, Dice-K’s fastball has been outright lousy in several games, and, he’s been knocked around as a result. What’s up with his arm? Matsuzaka, when he arrived to the Sox a few years ago, could often throw a 94 mph fastball – with movement – when he had to, but, now, he cannot keep his velocity that high at all, or maintain the same zip. He often throws his fastball at 90, 91 or, even drops occasionally to 89 mph. Because he gets behind in the count SO often, this makes Matsuzaka much more hittable. I must say I’m tired of Dice-K repeating his same patterns – walking too many hitters, building very high pitch counts in the early innings, and, overall, hindering his team’s chances rather than keeping the team in games longer. If he keeps these habits and cannot improve, I’d consider trading him. A pitcher or any player must show a capacity to adjust and try to improve. Dice-K, after his disastrous 2009, needs to show that now – not later.
7) The bullpen needs significant bolstering. Setup pitcher Daniel Bard and closer Jonathan Papelbon – while both experiencing occasional “bumps in the road,” have performed very well, overall. They’ve been quite reliable, particularly in closing out wins. Manny Delcarmen, in large part, has found his old form and pitched decently as a “7th-inning guy. ” (But Delcarmen felt tightness in his back yesterday, so, we’ll have to see if he’s OK) Hideki Okajima has really struggled in 2010. It was unsurprising when he gave up the winning hit yesterday to Nick Markakis. I don’t know what Okajima’s problems are, but, I hope he can identify problems in his mechanics to fix rather than discover more serious issues. Either Okajima, a bona fide “star” in the Sox’ 2007 run, has to improve or the Sox might have to add a pitcher of two to their bullpen, anyway. They simply have too few dependable arms and could use a lefthanded reliver. (like Billy Wagner!)
The Red Sox either need to upgrade aubstantially by adding players at the trading deadline, and/or, a few of their current players need to play much better. Can JD Drew suddenly play a lot better? I doubt it. It’s time for the front office to get creative and add a good player or two.
