AJ: Sox, After Deadline, Face Steep Climb

My, how things have changed around Boston since the Red Sox won the World Series in 2004 and 2007!

The Red Sox just did virtually nothing at thee Trading Deadline and no one seems to care.   This is even more striking because the team has one of the better starting pitching staffs in the game.  One could argue that whenever your team has starters this good, you should try extra hard to find the talent to win it all.   Yet, the Red Sox organization, strikingly,  chose to make no significant trades for desparately-needed help in its bullpen or the rest of its lineup. 

Entering this season, Sox officials seemed to hint that they knew it’d be a hard, “transition” year for the Red Sox.  GM Theo Epstein made an off-the-cuff remark about 2010 being a “bridge” year, and, while he tried to backtrack, the remark foreshadowed much of what has happened this season.  Of course, Epstein could not foresee all the injuries that would hurt the team.    Yes, so many players have been injured that one could conclude the team would be unlikely to overcome that……but, I strongly believe that it’s not that simple.

You see, the Red Sox brass has decided that when the team gets all its injured players back (Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jason Varitek are still out) they’ll have a good enough lineup to compete with the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees.

I disagree.  I think that the 2010 Red Sox, by not adding talent at today’s Trading Deadline, have all but thrown in the towel on this season.  The team simply lacks the talent to make up so many games;  in fact, I just don’t think they’re an “elite” team right now.  The Red Sox – as to today (7/31) are eight games behind the Yanks and seven behind the Rays in the all-important loss column.  This Sox team simply has less talent than the Rays or Yanks and perhaps the only way they’d even appear more competitive against either would be in a playoff series – when starting pitching matters more.

The Sox today traded relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez to the San Francisco Giants for prospects.  It’s about time they acknowledged how much Ramirez has hurt the team with his subpar outings.  The Sox acquired Texas Rangers’ catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a player past mentioned as being on the Sox radar.  However, Saltalamacchia, who was viewed as a promising young player back in 2007, has experienced some setbacks – including an injury – and has been playing in the Rangers minor-league system in 2010.   The Red Sox also designated part-time outfielder Jeremy Hermida for assignment and called up a hot-hitting minor-league outfielder, Ryan Kalish.

 At the end of the day, though, I cannot overlook the fact that from April on, this Red Sox team has had a terrific starting rotation that has been surrounded by a lineup too average to contend for a championship.   Yes, Adrian Beltre has performed much, much better than expected.  He’s having a fantastic year.  Yes, David Ortiz overcame a poor start (again) to hit much better.  But, overall, the team’s hitting  doesn’t compare to that of the Yankees, Rays or others. 

I know the stats show the Red Sox are among the tops in “Runs Scored” and others, but, check how they’ve done against teams with winning records or the best teams in divisions.   The Sox belt mediocre pitchers, but, often get shut down quite easily by good pitching.

In the end, I feel that Epstein and his colleagues should be held more accountable for the fortunes of the 2010 Sox, and, eventually, if the Sox fall short, more scrutiny will be directed toward management.  Meanwhile, what’s become more clear is that the fans, and, even members of the media around Boston are operating in such a radically different context than pre-2004 that the judgements and sentiments about a “transition” season such as 2010 stand in sharp contrast to the past.

 Even the television ratings for Red Sox games have dropped substantially.  People seem detached about this team.  Many feel it’s a boring group – with good reason.  Maybe it really is a lot easier for all of us Sox fans to survive a season or two like 2010 now.

There was something uniquely fun about rooting for the long-suffering Sox to win their first World Series since 1918.   We’re still adjusting to the new world of being Red Sox fans who have witnessed recent championships. 

Regardless, I still wish the Red Sox had picked up a couple of good players today.  And I still hate the Yankees (who, annoyingly, added good players!)  Some things have not changed.

AJ: Red Sox In Predictable Nosedive

I cannot say I’m surprised by the Red Sox recent string of losses.  In fact, I can say:  “I told you so…,” to a large extent, because my posts from the start of this 2010 season have consistently featured my strong doubts about the staying power of this Red Sox team. 

The team still has time to recover, and, possibly, make the wild card, or, even, catch the New York Yankees, if the Bombers run into horrible luck for a change.  However, I think the odds are overwhelmingly against the Red Sox and the evidence of that is likely to keep showing up on the field.  First, the rash of injuries plaguing the ballclub is really catching up to the Sox.  Their daily lineup, which does not include Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez or Jacoby Ellsbury, continues to score too few runs – particularly in the clutch – to qualify as a team that will contend in the playoffs.

The Red Sox have lost 10 of their last 14 games and are now 7 games behind the Yankees (8  in the loss column) in the American League East, and,  4.5 games behind the second-place Tampa Bay Rays, who currently lead the Wild Card race.   The Red Sox have lost 5 of their 7 games since the All-Star break, and, not scored more than 4 runs in their last 8 games, the Boston Globe reported on July 22.  The team’s hitting has bottomed-out in the absence of Pedroia and Martinez.  In addition, David Ortiz, since winning the home-run derby at the All-Star festivities, is 3 for 25 with 10 strikeouts since the All-Star break, Nick Cafardo reported in his July 22 colum in the Globe.

What’s amazing is that the Red Sox have done as well as they have despite all their injuries!  They could easily be 12 or 15 games behind the Yankees.  Adrian Beltre, who is having an unexpected, sensational season as a hitter, has carried this team for a long stretch.  Beltre is now batting .339 with 16 HRs and an OPS of .937.  While Beltre and Ortiz were hot – and Pedroia, Martinez and Kevin Youkilis were all hitting – the team had just enough punch to win games.   I’d argue, however, that even then, the team lacked sufficient contact and power hitting to mount a real challenge to the Yankees, or, probably, the Rays too – if the Rays can hold it together.

So, what the Sox do at the July 31st trading deadline will, again, go a long way in determining if they have any chance to get back into this race.  It will give us a glimpse of whether General Manager Theo Epstein really thinks this team has genuine potential to make – and succeed in the – the playoffs.  Baseball observers around Boston seem to agree that Epstein is not likely to make a blockbuster trade, partly because he wants to hang onto the team’s best minor-league prospects, and, perhaps partly because he may not be able to find players available who match up with the team’s urgent needs right now.  Most seem to expect Theo to get a relief pitcher and maybe another backup player.   What a far cry from the off-season speculation about the Red Sox getting San Diego slugger Adrian Gonzalez at the trading deadline!  The Padres are doing way too well, as it turns out, to part with “A-Gon.” 

Oh, well……..It looks like this season may get boring awfully fast.   The only route the Sox can take to beating the odds now?  Their starting pitching rotation – which is finally intact with the return of long-injured Josh Beckett tomorrow – has the potential to carry the team for weeks.   Do I think it will happen?  No.   Why?  The Sox hitting remains mediocre – with or without their missing players in the lineup.   I’ve heard all season about the Red Sox leading the league in “Runs Scored” and other hitting categories and I believe these stats have proven one of my main baseball arguments:  That hitting stats can be incredibly misleading.   Sure, the Red Sox have put up high run totals against the lousy and average teams, but, if you check their run totals against the best teams, they’ve often struggled to produce two or three runs a game.   Stats can be meaningless!

I’ll illustrate it further by looking at a player who I love to complain about:  JD Drew.  Once again, Drew, who earns $14 million a year – the highest salary for all Sox position players – is having a mediocre season in 2010.   He’s done his usual good job as a right-fielder, gracefully getting to flyballs.   But, Drew, again, often has failed to get many “big hits.”   As of July 22, Drew is batting .270 with 45 RBIs.   Shortstop Marco Scutaro is one of several players with more hits than Drew.  Dustin Pedroia, who has played in 73 games, has 86 hits while Drew, who has played in 85 games, has 77 hits.    So, fine, Drew may not stink, but, he’s sure as hell not earning his $14 million team-high salary! 

I’ll harp on it some more.  JD Drew typifies what’s wrong with the 2010 Red Sox and the direction the team has gone under Theo Epstein the past few seasons.  Theo is too in awe of stats and pays too little attention to human factors.  The most glaring example:   Theo never saw how good a hitter Mike Lowell was and has seemed to have minimal appreciation of Lowell’s role in the clubhouse.   Theo got Beltre mainly for his defense, but, then Beltre fit in superbly with the team and has surprised everyone with his production.   Theo looked at Dodger closer Eric Gagne’s record and figured he’d just continue to pitch well in Boston, but, Gagne lost his confidence immediately and was terrible.  I could give other examples, but Drew is, by far, the best one.  Theo just gushes about Drew and seems to argue continually that he makes an outstanding contribution.   The only problem is it’s just not true.   Drew has been good at times, but, overall played way, way below his salary and much worse than the adjectives and adverbs Epstein applies to him.

When you reflect on Epstein’s career as GM, it seems hard to dispute that his best, boldest move was to trade Nomar Garciaparra in the middle of the 2004 season for Montreal Expos shortstop Orlando Cabrera and Minnesota Twins first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz.  Back then, he did what was necessary to help the team win.  Since then, some of his moves have seemed aimed at building his personal favorite “fantasy baseball team” or something.  So, if he just likes JD Drew, he’ll keep defending him – whether or not Drew is earning his salary.

At times, Epstein seems very realistic and practical.  At other times, he seems in some denial about the talents of his players and team.

Either way he’s perceiving the 2010 Red Sox, they face a steep, uphill battle to contend for the playoffs.

AJ: Ellsbury Controversy Is Typical Boston Blather

Only in Boston.  I’ve been hearing these phony “trumped-up” sports stories my whole life following the Red Sox.  The sports media take a minor topic and inflate it, twist it and redefine it into a “serious” item for sports talk shows and columnists to dwell on for many days.

Such is the case currently with centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury’s rib injuries.  Ellsbury broke several ribs back in April when he collided with Red Sox third baseman Adrian Beltre during a game.  He’s been recovering ever since and is expected to rejoin the team within the next few weeks. 

So, what’s the controversy?  A few talk show hosts and columnists have raised questions about:  a) whether Ellsbury is “soft” and should have recovered faster or been willing to return by now and play hurt;  b) why Ellsbury chose to recuperate and work out at for the past month at the Athletes’ Performance Institue (API) in Arizona instead of rehabilitating with his teammates;  c) why Ellsbury – perhaps with the advice of agent Scott Boras – chose to publicly air his disagreements and dissatisfaction with the team’s doctors over how his injury was diagnosed and treated.

My reaction?  This is not a big deal.   Yeah, maybe it’s taken longer than some expected for Ellsbury’s ribs to heal.  But, if he’s hurt, he’s hurt.  No matter what details emerge about any behind-the-scenes dynamics, the bottom line is that Ellsbury cannot play until he’s ready.   He tried a premature comeback weeks ago and suffered a setback.  He needed more time for his ribs to heal.   He has not been a “problem player.”   The team can use his help right now.   And, even though Ellsbury chose to work out at API rather than with the team – he did so with the team’s approval – making this, in my view, a fairly petty matter.

What bothers me is the extent of time that has been devoted to Ellsbury’s situation on sports talk radio over the past two or three weeks, particularly the past few days.   Callers and hosts have steadily criticized Ellsbury without having all the facts.  Plus, the facts they’ve cited do not amount to much of a substantive complaint.   So, why do people dump all over a player and exaggerate things and vent obnoxiously?  They seem to use players – in this case, Ellsbury – as a scapegoat for venting their own personal frustrations.  The talk show hosts keep raising Ellsbury purely to drum up some entertainment with some conflict at the center.

Then, there has been the predictable criticism of Scott Boras, Ellsbury’s agent.  Many critics of Ellsbury claim that Boras is behind Ellsbury’s prolonged recovery and that Boras typically advises clients to not play until they are 100 percent ready – especially before they become eligible for free agency.  I’m not a big fan of Boras, but, in this case, I think he, too, is receiving more criticism than deserved.

I don’t know the facts.  Perhaps Ellsbury is being perfectionistic about wanting to be completely healed before he tries playing.  But, why are fans and radio talk shows wasting so much time on this topic?  Only Ellsbury knows what he needs to feel ready.  There is no evidence that he’s a “slacker” or a guy who does not want to play and help the team.  There has been speculation – not backed up publicly – that when Ellsbury was in the minors – he had a reputation among some, for avoiding playing when he was hurt, but might have been able to play.   I’ve heard that speculation from only a couple of individuals – either a talk show host or a baseball writer.

The irony is that Ellsbury is over-rated in Boston.  Often fans and media have seemed to perceive Ellsbury as more skilled than he is.

In reality, he’s an average leadoff hitter with an average to mediocre on-base-percentage.  He’s improved as a hitter, but, is still average.  He still has trouble hitting breaking pitches, despite a bit of improvement.  He’s a fairly good fastball hitter.  He’s a very good centerfielder who makes so many diving catches that, at times, he appears to be an incredible, outstanding fielder.  And, as everyone knows, he’s one of the fastest, best baserunners in the game with one of the highest numbers of “stolen bases” most years.  

Ellsbury chose to speak up when he was puzzled and disappointed by the opinions given by the Red Sox doctors who originally diagnosed his rib injuries.  At one early moment, when he requested an MRI of his ribs, a Red Sox doctor or representative replied:  “We don’t do MRIs of bruises…”   That remark, understandably, bothered Ellsbury, particularly when the MRI later showed multiple fractures in his ribs.

I am a big fan of the “Felger and Massarotti Show” on “98.5 – The Sports Hub” an excellent sports talk show in Boston;  however, I’ve really disagreed with both hosts – Mike Felger and Tony Massarotti – for devoting so much time to discussing and criticizing Ellsbury on recent shows.   Felger often likes to question if a player is “soft” or not and seems to think athletes should always “suck it up” and play with almost any injury.  Some of this amounts to ludicrous “pseudo – “macho” banter.  By the way, I wish Felger and Massarotti were more critical of JD Drew for missing so many games rather than dumping disproportionate criticism on Ellsbury.  Drew, at least, has made it a practice to miss uncountable games when some felt he could play while Ellsbury has had this one episode  as his only major example.

I have not been a huge fan of Jacoby Ellsbury in the past, but, when he comes back, I’ll be rooting for him more than usual because of all the unwarranted criticism and whining directed at him in recent weeks.   Go get em, Jacoby!

AJ: Overachieving Red Sox Face Turning Point

The  2010 Red Sox have surprised many fans across New England by merely playing so well despite all their injuries.  Yet, we baseball fans have seen teams like this before:  They overachieve and keep plugging along beyond anyone’s expectations, and, then, suddenly, they take a dip downward.   After they fall back to more of a “normal” position, people see their “high” period with more perspective.

This 2010 team seems positioned to run out of gas in the second half of the season.  I mean:  How long can Adrian Beltre hit out of his mind?  Won’t Big Papi be due for at least some slump in August or September?  Won’t their “fill-in” players start to hurt them more?

Further, what about their bulllpen, which is in tatters now?  Closer Jonathan Papelbon and setup pitcher Daniel Bard are the only reliable relievers, and, even Papelbon has been a bit subpar this year.  Ramon Ramirez has, again, not been steady, and, in my view, would be better replaced than used more.  Manny Delcarmen is injured and has been unpredictable due, mainly, to the more fragile condition of his arm.  Hideki Okajima has been mediocre most of the season – a downward trend for him.  In the past Oki has had ups and downs, but rallied, and, of course, in his first year, 2007, he was brilliant and significantly helped the team win it all.

It seems the Red Sox have gotten little breaks and unexpected contributions from fill-ins like Daniel Nava just enough to make their impressive run in this first half of 2010.  I do not see this success continuing until September without several changes being made by General Manager Theo Epstein.   Once again, as always seems the case, Theo faces interesting circumstances at the July 31st trading deadline.   Does he decide to do little and let things play out with the current roster- knowing they’ve proven to be an entertaining team that has played “over their heads”?   After all, Theo had to know the odds were against even the starting 2010 Red Sox going far into the playoffs?  In this sense, Theo may be a bit “off the hook” if he does little but the team goes south.   He can say:  “Hey, they were in the hunt with subs and I thought with the return of Josh Beckett, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and others to the lineup, the team would do better and stay in contention….”      On the other hand, Theo knows that this team has flaws and holes likely to haunt them before late September, when the race will probably be decided.

The Sox, despite their surprising stats in “runs scored” and other hitting categories, still need more pop in their lineup.  A bona fide slugger would do wonders for them.   I don’t know who they could offer in a trade.  After another miserable performance last night, I’m at a point where I’d be open to trading Daisuke Matsuzaka!  I don’t think teams would take Dice-K for his annual salary of $8 million or so.   (What a disappointment Matsuzaka has been this year!)  Despite the non-stop speculation of baseball writers last winter that the Sox would try to trade for San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez in 2010, that seems impossible now because the Padres are having a good year.

It’s very hard to predict Epstein’s moves this July 31.  He’s got players who are performing or not performing beyond his expectations.  Mike Cameron, who he traded for, will be hindered all season by his adominal injury;  in  fact, he seems to hurt the team when he tries to play.  My guess is that Theo will try to get one or two relief pitchers for the bullpen.  I’d love to see him roll the dice and get a slugger.  There are a few minor-league players doing well and he could consider two or three to package in a trade. 

It has been an unpredictable season in the AL East in some ways.  Tampa Bay has returned to Earth.  They seemed to be crashing downward, but, it’s hard to say if they’ll stay at the top or keep playing below their talent, which remains good enough for them to contend until the very end.  Right now, I’d stand on my prediction that the Rays and Yankees will finish ahead of the Red Sox…….but, I would have never guessed the Sox would be right on the tail of both teams.    If — if, the Sox acquire a quality player or two at the trading deadline and decide to “go for it,” I see them having a chance.   If they stand pat, I see them collapsing during the second half.

I will say that Beckett could be one wild card that makes a difference.  I’m not referring to the same Beckett coming back and pitching erratically.  I’m referring to a super-motivated Beckett returning with an unusual strength as the second half starts.   Beckett is a fiery guy who gets himself charged up to meet goals, and, I have a feeling he’ll be very determined to rattle off a bunch of wins for the team in August and September.  I don’t know if his worn-down, weary arm will allow him to, but, I think the long rest this year may - may lead to him pitching much, much better in the second half.  If Beckett is on fire and Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz continue to pitch outstandingly, then maybe the Sox can make things interesting after Labor Day.

 They’ve seeemed to barely win many of their games this year.  They’ve scored less runs than I expected in many games and their bullpen has often had to hold narrow leads.   A new home-run hitter positioned after David Ortiz and perhaps before Kevin Youkilis could change the dynamics of the whole team and make the Sox put a scare into the Yankees and Rays.

If they remain the same, I’m afraid they’ll go down as a feisty, overachieving team that ran out of gas in the dog days of August.