The 2010 Red Sox have surprised many fans across New England by merely playing so well despite all their injuries. Yet, we baseball fans have seen teams like this before: They overachieve and keep plugging along beyond anyone’s expectations, and, then, suddenly, they take a dip downward. After they fall back to more of a “normal” position, people see their “high” period with more perspective.
This 2010 team seems positioned to run out of gas in the second half of the season. I mean: How long can Adrian Beltre hit out of his mind? Won’t Big Papi be due for at least some slump in August or September? Won’t their “fill-in” players start to hurt them more?
Further, what about their bulllpen, which is in tatters now? Closer Jonathan Papelbon and setup pitcher Daniel Bard are the only reliable relievers, and, even Papelbon has been a bit subpar this year. Ramon Ramirez has, again, not been steady, and, in my view, would be better replaced than used more. Manny Delcarmen is injured and has been unpredictable due, mainly, to the more fragile condition of his arm. Hideki Okajima has been mediocre most of the season – a downward trend for him. In the past Oki has had ups and downs, but rallied, and, of course, in his first year, 2007, he was brilliant and significantly helped the team win it all.
It seems the Red Sox have gotten little breaks and unexpected contributions from fill-ins like Daniel Nava just enough to make their impressive run in this first half of 2010. I do not see this success continuing until September without several changes being made by General Manager Theo Epstein. Once again, as always seems the case, Theo faces interesting circumstances at the July 31st trading deadline. Does he decide to do little and let things play out with the current roster- knowing they’ve proven to be an entertaining team that has played “over their heads”? After all, Theo had to know the odds were against even the starting 2010 Red Sox going far into the playoffs? In this sense, Theo may be a bit “off the hook” if he does little but the team goes south. He can say: “Hey, they were in the hunt with subs and I thought with the return of Josh Beckett, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and others to the lineup, the team would do better and stay in contention….” On the other hand, Theo knows that this team has flaws and holes likely to haunt them before late September, when the race will probably be decided.
The Sox, despite their surprising stats in “runs scored” and other hitting categories, still need more pop in their lineup. A bona fide slugger would do wonders for them. I don’t know who they could offer in a trade. After another miserable performance last night, I’m at a point where I’d be open to trading Daisuke Matsuzaka! I don’t think teams would take Dice-K for his annual salary of $8 million or so. (What a disappointment Matsuzaka has been this year!) Despite the non-stop speculation of baseball writers last winter that the Sox would try to trade for San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez in 2010, that seems impossible now because the Padres are having a good year.
It’s very hard to predict Epstein’s moves this July 31. He’s got players who are performing or not performing beyond his expectations. Mike Cameron, who he traded for, will be hindered all season by his adominal injury; in fact, he seems to hurt the team when he tries to play. My guess is that Theo will try to get one or two relief pitchers for the bullpen. I’d love to see him roll the dice and get a slugger. There are a few minor-league players doing well and he could consider two or three to package in a trade.
It has been an unpredictable season in the AL East in some ways. Tampa Bay has returned to Earth. They seemed to be crashing downward, but, it’s hard to say if they’ll stay at the top or keep playing below their talent, which remains good enough for them to contend until the very end. Right now, I’d stand on my prediction that the Rays and Yankees will finish ahead of the Red Sox…….but, I would have never guessed the Sox would be right on the tail of both teams. If — if, the Sox acquire a quality player or two at the trading deadline and decide to “go for it,” I see them having a chance. If they stand pat, I see them collapsing during the second half.
I will say that Beckett could be one wild card that makes a difference. I’m not referring to the same Beckett coming back and pitching erratically. I’m referring to a super-motivated Beckett returning with an unusual strength as the second half starts. Beckett is a fiery guy who gets himself charged up to meet goals, and, I have a feeling he’ll be very determined to rattle off a bunch of wins for the team in August and September. I don’t know if his worn-down, weary arm will allow him to, but, I think the long rest this year may - may lead to him pitching much, much better in the second half. If Beckett is on fire and Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz continue to pitch outstandingly, then maybe the Sox can make things interesting after Labor Day.
They’ve seeemed to barely win many of their games this year. They’ve scored less runs than I expected in many games and their bullpen has often had to hold narrow leads. A new home-run hitter positioned after David Ortiz and perhaps before Kevin Youkilis could change the dynamics of the whole team and make the Sox put a scare into the Yankees and Rays.
If they remain the same, I’m afraid they’ll go down as a feisty, overachieving team that ran out of gas in the dog days of August.
