AJ: Observations After Red Sox Opener

For one game, at least, the Red Sox hitters got the job done! 

The Sox won a game against C.C. Sabathia and the New York Yankees on a night when Sox starter, Josh Beckett, pitched poorly.   These sort of events occur rarely, so, I try to savor them when they do.

All the talk about the Sox’ pitching and “run prevention” seemed, for the most part, irrelevant.   That’s the beauty of the season beginning:  We throw out all the speculation and predictions and see what teams have to offer.

The Red Sox newcomers – Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron – all contributed to the win.  This seemed a particularly fortunate twist because, early success can really help new players in Boston, not the easiest place to get acclimated in.  Beltre got a big, clutch hit to tie the game 5-5.  Scutaro and Cameron each got two hits.  All three fielded fine, particularly Cameron, who made a few good catches in center.

So, what am I thinking as the Sox and Yanks prepare for Game Two tonight?

First, I’m in a tiny minority who were not pleased by yesterday’s news that the Sox signed Becket to a new, four-year contract for $68 million.  I’ve said consistently I felt the Red Sox should wait on signing Beckett – preferably until a majority of this season was over and he could have proven himself some more.  

I remain very concerned about Beckett.  I just think his arm isn’t in the shape it was.  I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he has been injured at the end of the past two seasons and seemed to be fatigued.  I know it sounds lame to say this now, but, I was not surprised Beckett was so mediocre vs the Yankees on Sunday night.  I don’t get surprised by Beckett’s inconsistency anymore.   Beckett relies so heavily on fastball location that when he doesn’t have his location sharp and/or his curve working – especially against superb fastball hitters like the Yankees – he looks very average very quickly.  My guess is that Beckett will pitch half-decently this year.  I’ll be watching most closely in September and October, however.   If he has zip on his heater then, he’ll prove me wrong.

Second, I hope Big Papi starts hitting right away because I fear that if he doesn’t, the pressure in this crazy sports town will make it harder.   I cannot believe how much anxious, negative chatter I’ve heard on sports talk radio in Boston about whether David Ortiz can hit this year.  Ortiz didn’t get a hit on Opening Night, but there is no context on talk radio.  It’s as if it’s now the same as in early June last year – after Ortiz had slumped for two months.  Sports media and fans seem predisposed to give Ortiz very little slack this season.  If he slumps, many are saying, the Sox will have to remove him from the DH slot or put Mike Lowell in there.  Lowell is likely to be traded soon, but, at the moment, he’s on the Sox bench.

There was one moment Monday night when Ortiz had a hitter’s count (3 -1, I think) vs. Sabathia, and, sure enough, he got a fastball down the middle, and he fouled it off.  He swung a second late – something he did for most of the 2009 season.  It worried me – for one second, but, I will give Papi a few weeks before I conclude anything!  On a positive side, Ortiz looked in very good shape, to me.

The Sox and Yanks’ bullpens both face questions, and, the Yankees’ pen, at this early stage, looks like it may be vulnerable.

First, I don’t know what happened to Joba Chamberlain in the past year or so, but, he just isn’t the same pitcher.  He seems to lack the same confidence he had as a rookie.  He often lacks command of his pitches.  He doesn’t seem to throw the ball quite as hard as he once did.   He looked ordinary during his appearance.  The Sox’ Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon looked good.  Ramon Ramirez, who often pitches the 6th for the Sox, started his season poorly, and, I was not surprised.  After his great start last year Ramirez threw erratically, at best, the rest of the season – and, often, poorly.  If he cannot improve soon, I’d yank him from the bullpen.  Manny Delcarmen  didn’t pitch Monday, but, he had a shaky spring, after finishing poorly last year.    But, the Yanks’ pen, particularly Chan Ho Park, looked bad Monday, and that was refreshing given their strengths in most areas.

In the end, the Sox hitting will be even more dependent on Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia in 2010.   Each had terrific games Monday.  Pedroia hit a clutch home run.  Youkilis had three extra-base hits.  I believe Youkilis, quietly, has become one of the top 15 or so hitters in baseball.  He’s easily the best batter on the Red Sox.  Why?  He can do it all.  He hits for contact and power.   He has a fantastic eye and always makes pitchers work.  He hits in the clutch, and, seems, unlike J.D. Drew, to know when to swing and when to take a pitch with men on base in the late innings.

The Yankees, while still featuring an awesome, scary lineup, look just a tiny bit less threatening without Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and, even Melky Cabrera.   Maybe Curtis Granderson will be good.   Maybe Brett Gardner will too.   Yet, Damon and Matsui were proven clutch performers who came up with uncountable “big” hits, particularly against the Red Sox.

Seeing Pedro Martinez appear, by surprise, to throw out the first pitch, just reminded me that he was, by far, the most exciting player I’ve ever seen play for the Red Sox.   Pedro was the best.  He injected an incredible buzz to the Sox-Yanks rivalry.  It was fitting to have him here to kick off the rivalry in 2010.

AJ: Theo Acknowledges Reality

Red Sox fans can breathe a collective sigh of at least partial relief.   General Manager Theo Epstein, in a televised interview, finally acknowledged having some “concerns” about the Red Sox offense for the upcoming season. 

Until now, Epstein has harped so much on “run-prevention” that it seemed he was in denial about the gaps in the team’s 2010 hitting lineup.  The team has lost its most productive hitter, Jason Bay,who hit 36 HRs and knocked in  119 RBIs and will soon trade away Mike Lowell, who had 75 RBIs in just 119 games.   The team’s hitting was a real weakness by the end of the 2009 season.      

I find it a bit reassuring when, even if I totally disagree with the Red Sox, the GM shows he’s not living in fantasyland. 

Sean McAdam of Comcast SportsNet New England (CSNNE) asked Epstein, if, he had any concerns about the offense, without Bay, being good enough offensively.

Theo Epstein, in the Jan. 8th interview, replied as follows:

“Sure we have concerns…Always have concerns about different elements (of) the club going into the spring — I think there’s a recognition that we couldn’t be perfect – That we couldn’t get our pitching, our defense, and our offense all up to where we wanted them to be at a premium level to start the year.  But, there’s one thing that’s easier to fix during the year – It’s usually the offense –  The last two trade deadlines, we’ve added big bats – in Jason Bay and Victor Martinez  That type of player is a little easier to find during the year than a “top-of-the- rotation” starter and certainly easier than reorganizing your defense.

“That said, Epstein continued, “we have six of our nine starters (who) are guys who have hit 25 or more HRs in the big leagues – We have nine such players out of our of 13 position spots, so I think we have some power – we’re threats – We’re still are going to have a way better than league average on-base percentage.  I think if we’re a top five offensive club - with our run prevention, that should get us where we need to be.  Whether we can accomplish it remains to be seen……”

At least, Theo, in this interview, is admitting the uncertainty about the hitting AND the team’s definite interest in potentially adding a bat at the trading deadline, if necessary.

Epstein, who introduced Adrian Beltre at a press conference yesterday, said he thought Beltre might find more hitting success in Fenway Park rather than Seattle’s Safeco Field, where he played all his home games last year.  Most agree with him on that;  the question is:  how much better will Beltre hit?  Also, will Mike Cameron do at least a little more hitting at Fenway and will Marco Scutaro add some punch as well?  If these three hit at least to some extent and David Ortiz can improve from last year, Epstein hopes the team will do OK offensively in 2010.  If not, and Adrian Gonzalez is available at the deadline, the Red Sox will likely match any team’s offer to add Gonzalez.

Like I’ve told you, Big Mike, the first step in a team improving is for its managers to face the truth and share it with the media and public.

If the 2010 Red Sox cannot hit enough, Theo is indicating he won’t sit back and do nothing.   Fans like me appreciate hearing that publicly.

Big Mike: My Secret Crush On The Red Sox

AJ, right now I’m feeling nothing but contempt for my Cubs. It’s like a marriage wherein one or the other partner must endure a stretch of loathing for her/his mate in order for the relationship to work out in the long run.

Hungry Jim Hendry didn’t move Milton Bradley during the winter meetings in Indy this week. Maybe he laid the groundwork for a surprise deal in January. It’s possible, but he’d better get it done ASAP because the organization’s off-season activity has screeched to a halt. There’s not much Hungry Jim can do while saddled with Gameboard’s $21 remaining salary.

How Cub-like — the team has the majors’ third highest payroll budget but must proceed like a small market team because so many guys are locked up in dumb-ass, NTC deals. And even if they weren’t NTC’s, most of the guys making big bucks on the Cubs wouldn’t be movable because they’re worth a fraction of their deals in the real world — that is, the world outside Hungry Jim’s fantasy baseball imagination.

Like many a spouse who goes through a period of loathing, I’m starting to get a wandering eye. The Red Sox look awfully good to me. They’re attractive, intelligent, ambitious. They’re nothing like my, ugh, guys.

The Red Sox have essentially the same payroll budget as the Cubs yet they spend oh-so wisely. The Red Sox farm system is productive, not only developing good, useful parts but imparting the proper mindset  and fundamentals to each and every kid within the system. And the Sox play in a decrepit, old-time ballpark from which they must squeeze every dime to keep up with the competition, just like the Cubs. Finally, both are adored by millions. The Red Sox and the Cubs are more than just their city’s pro baseball teams — they are national brands.

The differences between the two teams are personified by their bosses: Theo and Hungry Jim. How I’d love for Theo to be running the Cubs. You have no idea how lucky you are.

Let’s look at what he’s done this past week at Indy:

• They’re the frontrunner for Adrian Beltre, a brilliant gloveman who just might be a damned decent hitter in Fenway (I checked the home-road splits for his career and for the last several seasons — he’s a lot better away from Dodgers Stadium and Safeco Field;)
• They traded an aging Mike Lowell (Theo clearly was worried about Lowell’s surgically-repaired hip) for a high-ceiling catcher, Max Ramirez, pending medical exams on both players;
• They took a minimal-risk flyer on the recuperating, back of the rotation pitcher Boof Bonser;
• In trying to either retain Jason Bay or sign Matt Holliday, they’re bidding smartly against the Mets, rather than panicking (the way you-know-who would) and throwing U.S. mint at one or the other.

And just prior to the meetings, Epstein nabbed shortstop Marco Scutaro who will be the Sox’ most popular player next year, guaranteed.

Theo has a plan, as always. Hungry Jim has none, as always.

My guess is Beltre is signed by Christmas and Bay eventually re-ups. Man, that’s a good freakin’ lineup:

1B: Youkilis

2B: Pedroia

3B: Beltre

SS: Scutaro

LF: Bay

CF: Ellsbury

RF: Drew

C: Martinez

DH: Ortiz

David Ortiz may not be David Ortiz anymore, but even two-thirds of the old Papi is still better than any other full-time DH now in the league. Youk, Pedroia, Bay, Drew, and Martinez are locks to replicate their consistent yearly outputs (barring injury.) Beltre can do what he did in Seattle and still be an asset, flashing that spectacular leather — but again, I think he’s going to hit a Fenway .290 rather than a Safeco .265. And if Ellsbury continues to improve his K/BB ratio, he’ll become a productive offensive force.

That lineup, with Boston’s pitching, has 100 wins written all over it. Yeah, the Yankees may win 105 (now with Granderson in left — Cashman, for my money is almost as brainy as Theo) but the Sox will be the wild card. That’s all they need to be. Once in the playoffs, the team with the hot pitching advances. Why can’t it be Boston?

As for my boys, I iterate: they can win the NL Central with 85-90 wins or just as easily lose 90 games. I think I want to have an affair with the Red Sox.

AJ: The Red Sox Will Miss Mike Lowell

It appears Red Sox veteran third-baseman Mike Lowell is headed to the Texas Rangers in a trade, pending the review of medical and other final details.    The Sox have agreed to pay approximately $9 million of the $12 million Lowell is owed in 2010, the last year of his contract while they’ll receive Rangers’ minor-league catcher Max Ramirez back. 

It’s an odd, surprising deal because Lowell is in the last year of his contract, and, he’s likely to be in better shape in 2010 than 2009, when, despite being limited to 119 games, he was still able to bat .290 and knock in 75 RBIs.   It’s seems unlikely – whoever his replacement is – that he’ll will hit much better than Lowell.  The question will be whether an improvement in fielding and baserunning from a new 3rd baseman is worth eating most of Lowell’s contract.

Sox GM Theo Epstein has concluded that it IS worth doing that NOW and one gets a sense he wants to start fresh with a new infield in 2010.  Theo has emphasized the need to improve the team’s defense.  (I think he obsesses about this a bit, while being too casual about the team’s weak, limited hitting).  While Lowell has voiced optimism about feeling stronger in 2010 as he continues recovering from a hiip injury, the Red Sox, apparently, doubt he can improve sufficiently in fielding.  Lowell, long a terrific fielder, lacked his old range at 3rd during the 2009 season.

The Sox’ eagerness to part ways with Lowell – especially by absorbing such a huge part of his salary – surprised some.  (The Sox will pay Lowell $9 million for 2010 on top of already paying departed shortstop Julio Lugo, for his 2010 salary while he continues with the St. Louis Cardinals).   Plus, Max Ramirez, while he has potential, is not even an established big league player.

The Sox reportedly are very interested in signing Seattle Mariners’ 3rd-baseman Adrian Beltre, a Gold Glove-calibre fielder.  It’s unclear if they can reach a deal with Beltre, who already declined an arbitration offer from Seattle, which would’ve likely paid him close to his 2009 $12 million salary. If not, the Sox can always try to find a first-baseman and move Kevin Youkilis over to 3rd base.    

Yet, regardless of how the baseball aspects evolve, Lowell’s exit will leave a huge void in the Red Sox clubhouse.  Lowell was one of the most popular players on the team.  He’s been universally regarded as a classy, “good guy” on this team.  One of its leaders.  He’s always done what he could to help the team win.  Take the 2009 season, for example:  Lowell played with the effects of his hip injury and had to run the bases so slowly that it was painful to watch sometimes.  He always wanted to start and disliked missing games when he had to “rotate” in and out of the lineup after Victor Martinez’ arrival.

Lowell’s contributions to the Red Sox fantastic 2007 season will always be remembered.  Not only did he help get them there (121 RBIs, .324 average, 21 HRs, 191 hits) but, he was the MVP of the World Series.  Lowell became a solid, clutch hitter over his time with the Sox.

What moves will the Sox make now?

The Sox are still pursuing Jason Bay, and, it appears they’re competing with only one team – the New York Mets, who just offered Bay a four-year contract for a total of $65 million.  The Red Sox had offered Bay four years at $60 million.  The key is whether the Mets may be willing to offer Bay a 5th year.  If they do, the Sox will probably bow out of the competition.

If that  happens, they might pursue Matt Holliday, but, I now think it’s just as possible, if not more likely, that they’d find another player to play left-field.  I just don’t think the Sox will pay Holliday what his agent, Scott Boras, wants him to get.  Boras, at the winter meetings, made a laughable attempt to compare Holliday to Mark Teixeira, another of his clients, who got  a megadeal last winter.

The Red Sox will likely make a few more moves.  There will be some non-tendered players who become available in the next few days.  Right now, however, the Sox do not appear poised to make any blockbuster deals.  It seems Theo Epstein believes if they can get left-field set, their new 3rd baseman and shortstop – combined with having catcher Victor Martinez around all year – will do the trick.  We shall shee.

Meanwhile, there has been considerable talk among Boston sports pundits about Theo’s attempts to manage expectations for 2010.  Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy shared some of my outlook in a column yesterday about Theo trying to sell his “bridge” idea.  http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2009/12/10/fans_shouldnt_buy_red_sox_bridge/?p1=Well_MostPop_Emailed4

AJ: Scutaro Is A Plus, but Hitting Still Needed

I think the Red Sox signing of Marco Scutaro improves the team at shortstop – and, overall.  Scutaro is a much better hitter than Alex Gonzalez and close to what Gonzalez was as a fielder.   How can his addition not help the team at least a bit?

Scutaro knows how to grind out at-bats;  apparently, he had a higher average number of pitches per at-bat than any other shortstop in baseball last year.  He reached a number of career-high hitting milestones on the Blue Jays last year – his first as an everyday shortstop – when he batted .282. with 12 homers, 60 RBIs and his highest ever on-base-percentage of .379, third among shortstops in the American League.

If you look at Scutaro’s career path, he seems to be one of those unusual players who has kept improving, gradually, as he’s played a bit more and gets closer to his mid- 30′s.  (He used to be a utility infielder).  He’s  34 now, but, the Sox signed him to a two-year deal, with an option for a third year.   This creates a bridge to when the Sox expect their young stud shortstop, Jose Iglesias, to be ready.

Hey look:  Scutaro, when playing for Oakland in in April, 2007, hit a three-run, walkoff home run off Mariano Rivera – so, that’s a solid credential Red Sox fans appreciate!

The signing of Scutaro creates much more uncertainty over Jed Lowrie’s future on the Red Sox.  Lowrie, who, not that long ago, was viewed as the potential shortstop of the future, is suddenly slated as a utility guy.  The Sox want him to prove he can play without injury.  He barely played in 2009 due to injury-related issues.

So, the Sox are set at short, but, what about the huge void in hitting that caused the ballclub to deteriorate in 2009?  Now, Theo Epstein’s options seem a bit reduced.   It seems he’ll have to over-pay free agent Jason Bay to return to the Sox or over-pay free agent slugger Matt Holliday, a client of Scott Boras.   I prefer Bay, who we know can handle Boston, to Holliday, who couldn’t perform that impressively in Oakland.   Holliday earned  his stripes in Colorado – playing at Coors Field.  I’m just not as impressed with that part of his career.   I think Holliday, now on St. Louis,  is over-rated – period.  I hope I’m wrong, if he winds up on the Sox.

Supposedly, the Seattle Mariners are making a serious run at Bay and we might know more on that by the Winter Meetings.  My strong hunch is that the Red Sox will sign Bay or Holliday – not enthusiastically, but, feeling enormous pressure to ensure the presence of at least one slugger in their lineup.   Their problem:  They really need TWO hitters.   My guess here is that they might try to add a decent-hitting third-baseman – as ESPN’s Peter Gammons was speculating in an article for “ESPN Boston.”  Gammons wrote: “They are looking to see what happens in the third-base market, if Chone Figgins, Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa or Joe Crede falls.”

I hope the Sox plan to add another good hitter to their lineup.

The Sox are, apparently, willing to consider trading Mike Lowell, and eating half his salary.   They’re worried whether Lowell can recover sufficiently from a hip injury to get enough of his mobility back in the field.  If the Sox lose Lowell, it will be a HUGE loss in their clubhouse because he’s one of the team’s most respected players.

Even if they get a decent-hitting, new 3rd baseman – which, I may favor – I worry it’d not be nearly enough to meet the team’s hitting needs.  First, Lowell, even with his injury-related woes, is a damned good hitter, so, what will the upgrade be?

I’m afraid the Sox, assuming they sign Bay or Holliday,  will try to sell us the idea that with Victor Martinez now around all year – plus Scutaro and maybe this new imaginary 3rd baseman – that that will amount to enough hitting.   Yet, it probably will not be enough to compete with the Yankees, and, even the Rays.  

The Red Sox, unless they sign the Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera, will start 2010 without a bona fide “star” slugger in their lineup – and that’s a problem.   I’d argue that most teams need at least one star to carry a big part of the load.  The Sox have a group of very good players, but, still, miss Manny.

As for the Roy Halliday rumors, I am very curious if the Red Sox remain serious contenders for him.   I am very reluctant to trade Clay Buchholz for anyone — except, maybe, Halliday, if he’s really healthy and likely to have a few more good years in that arm.    I think the Sox are smart to hang onto their prospect, Casey Kelley, who, the Blue Jays reportedly want included in a deal for Halliday, along with Buchholz.   The unstated factor here is whether the Sox view Josh Beckett as part of their future.  If not, it makes a Halliday deal MUCH more possible. 

In recent days, the Red Sox have parted ways with Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, and, will have to add relief pitching to compensate.