The Red Sox are in a major transition, but, we don’t know how much change will come before 2010, or, after next season.
GM Theo Epstein and the Sox brass have hard choices this winter, including whether to make a big deal or two NOW to improve the team or to stick it out in 2010 with the 2009 roster largely intact.
It’s hard to predict. On the one hand, Theo and company have a history of shaking things up. On the other, this year’s class of free agents is supposed to be sub-par and perhaps the team will stand pat and hope for patience. (Not easy given that Boston fans have no patience).
The current Red Sox executives are accustomed only to winning. Since John Henry, Larry Lucchino and Tom Werner bought the team in 2002, the Red Sox have made the playoffs most years, won two World Series and made it to the ACLS twice and lost. Of course, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were the core of those teams until, for the first time, in 2009, the team had neither – if you consider that Ortiz was not his old self much of the year. That’s why, in an important way, the Sox’ transition began during 2009, when they had to find ways to win without their old Gehrig/Ruth duo.
To the Red Sox’ credit, they found a way to win 95 games in 2009 with key contributions by pitchers Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Jonathan Papelbon and left fielder Jason Bay and newly-acquired Victor Martinez. Yet, one sensed, as the year unfolded, that certain players were on a downhill trajectory.
Ortiz and Mike Lowell are both older and unlikely to keep producing at the same level. Ortiz has said he plans to follow a different work-out program in the offseason. Maybe he can improve a bit, but signs in 2009 suggest he’ll face limitations in 2010. Lowell, with a bad hip all of 09, hit well, but is also in the ending phase of his career.
Though knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is recovering from surgery on a herniated disc and says he intends to return, it’s hard to expect much from him. He’s 43 and has broken down at the end of recent seasons. Catcher Jason Varitek, long the captain and a team leader, must decide if he wants to be the backup to Martinez. Varitek is good with pitchers, but, on his last legs as a performer.
Theo can count on quite a few key players – including the starting pitching rotation – to return. The challenge will be keeping the team’s offense strong, particularly if Jason Bay signs elsewhere. The Sox are expected to talk to Bay in the days after the World Series when they have exclusive rights to talk to him, but, if they cannot reach agreement then, Bay will probably attract higher offers elsewhere and leave.
It seems, on what we know, that the Sox have only a few options. One might be trying to make a trade for Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres, but, that’s all speculative, and, who knows if the teams could work that out.
One of the only players I think the Sox might think about trading is Papelbon. I doubt it’ll happen because Pap is still so good, and, Daniel Bard, his heir apparent, is young and still inexperienced to assume the closer role. However, Papelbon is unlikely to remain on the team more than another year. He, himself, has said he wants to cash in on a big deal. So, in many ways, he’s the only significant “chip” the Sox have.
Who else would they trade? Not Ellsbury, Pedroia or Youkilis – all young and viewed as “the future.” Not Victor, who helped revive the team in mid-season. JD Drew, at $14 million a year, is untradeable. Ortiz and Lowell are old and unlikely to draw interest. Neither of their two shortstops, veteran Alex Gonzalez or Jed Lowrie, would bring much. They’ll want to hang onto their pitchers: Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Matsuzaka, Bard, Okajima, Ramon Ramirez. Maybe they’ll trade Manny Delcarmen, but, not for much.
So….either the Sox get lucky and sign Bay OR they put a few prospects or players together in a deal to get Adrian Gonzalez OR they choose the wild option of dealing Papelbon. If none of these work out, what options will Theo have?
The Red Sox are one of many teams talking to Aroldis Chapman, the 21-year-old, Cuban left-handed “stud” pitcher who throws a 100 mph fastball. Even if the Sox win that competition, Chapman needs time in minors.
There are a few promising young players on the way up – including budding shortstop Jose Iglesias and pitcher/shortstop Casey Kelley, but, reportedly, they need more time in the minors.
2009 was another excellent year for the Sox, but, they got swept in the playoffs and fell short of the Yankees in more ways than one. The Sox went after Mark Teixeira very aggressively, but, he chose the Yankees, who offered him $10 million more.
The Yanks appear ready to bring back most of their roster for 2010. If the Red Sox don’t make a big move, they appear poised to fall short again, but, perhaps by a greater margin.
If I had to guess, I believe Theo Epstein will, again, surprise us with a significant move before 2010 spring training. It’s just my hunch.
