A trade involving Papelbon is not as unthinkable as you say. In fact, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he’s not wearing the Scarlet Hose come spring training.
I have a sneaking suspicion that Theo and his brain trust (including my personal deity, Bill James) value Mr. Drew a hell of a lot more than their brilliant closer. In fact, they really don’t worship closers as much as the rest of the baseball world does.
Look, Papelbon made six and a quarter mill this past season. An arbitrator will award him, oh, in the neighborhood of $10M if things go that far. I doubt if he’ll agree to a pre-arb hearing deal for less than $9M. Should he continue being Jonathon Papelbon (as opposed to becoming, say, Jeremy Papelbon who toils in obscurity in the Cubs system, natch) he’ll get $10-12M next offseason. Then after 2011, he’s gonna be in for a four or five year, $80-100M deal when he becomes a free agent. Boston ain’t never gonna go for that.
(True, Papelbon is entering his sixth season in 2010 but, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, he’ll still be shy of free agency after next year. His first season in 2005 was a partial one.)
The Red Sox have a mighty payroll but it’s unlikely they’ll want to commit such a huge fraction of it to the closer. The best bet right now is to turn him into some very usable parts — a Major League-ready prospect, an established position player or some creative combination.
You might ask, Who’d do that? The White Sox would. The Pale Hose are becoming less than infatuated with Bobby Jenks. He’d be a nice bridge between the Papelbon and Bard eras. The WSox though, would have to scuffle to find that position player the RSox would want.
Okay then. How about the Tigers? Detroit has a gaping hole at closer. Would they be willing to package Curtis Granderson for Papelbon? The Red Sox would listen if Jason Bay takes a hike. Shifting Granderson to left with Ellsbury remaining in center and Drew in right — wow! That’d be a defensive outfield worth seeing.
The point is, there’s always a market for a closer with gaudy statistics. And the Red Sox seem always confident that they can fill the role either from within or without. Hell, they can even pick up Billy Wagner’s option or buy him out and offer him a reasonable contract to come back.
In any case, now’s the time to deal Papelbon.
