AJ: Theo Needs to Snap Out of Denial

Even though it’s early, I hope Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is busy brainstorming about changes rather than lingering in denial.  

I say “denial” because, yesterday, I read Epstein’s comments that the team simply has to play better baseball.  “What we can do is look inward, work our (rears) off, and return to the principles that have made us a solid organization, and have made these players who they are,” Epstein told the April 21st Boston Globe.  Epstein’s remarks implied the Sox have sufficient talent, and, if they, simply, start playing up to that talent, things will improve.

Well, I hate to say it, Theo, but, I don’t think your team has as much talent as you do, and, I’m not alone.  

The Red Sox hitting stinks so far.  They’ve had to struggle to win their past two games against the mediocre Texas Rangers after being swept by the Tampa Bay Rays.  Their lineup is filled with one mediocre hitter after another.  A recent caller to a radio show put it this way:  “We have (only) three hitters – three hitters!  He named Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez as the only good batters.  The rest are easy to pitch to, he said.

My view is close to that caller’s,  but, not quite as extreme.  Pedroia, Youkilis and Martinez do stand out because they can make contact in any count while most others in the lineup have been easy outs vs. half-decent pitching.   Nevertheless, what Theo Epstein won’t admit is that you can’t win a championship – or, for that matter, make the playoffs – when the newcomers to an already-weak-hitting lineup are Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron.   Not with David Ortiz fading fast, the departure of Jason Bay and benching (& planned trade of) Mike Lowell.  

You need a couple of stud hitters to compete in the AL East – guys like the Yanks’  Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez or the Rays’ Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria.   But, even though the Sox’ weak hitting led to the Angels sweeping them in the 2009 playoffs, Theo’s “answer” in the off-season was to sign pitcher John Lackey and the other newcomers, who he said would bolster the team’s “run prevention.”  I was among many who ripped that game plan, and said the Sox would lack hitting.

So, what will Theo and the Sox brass do now?  Will they acknowledge the team’s deficits, own up to their mistakes and start on a new path?  Or, will they stay stubborn and try to win with a depleted lineup while denying it’s bad all summer?

It’s interesting because Epstein and company have experienced only success since arriving about eight years ago.   They had a huge advantage of inheriting a team with Manny Ramirez and Pedro Martinez and Johnny Damon – and, with Theo’s signing of Ortiz, a platooning player for the Minnesota Twins in 2002,  turned into an unexpected, smash success that helped bring two World Series titles to Boston.  

Now, suddenly, Epstein must make very tough calls in the middle of this season — probably within weeks.  The first will be what to do with Ortiz, who is in the last year of his $13 million contract.  If Big Papi continues to not hit, it seems Epstein and manager Terry Francona will have to play him less and less until they’re forced to release him and eat his contract, or, to trade him somewhere – and, still eat his contract.   I say this because I cannot imagine Ortiz sitting on the bench happily for the rest of the year.

Next, Epstein has to decide if and how to commit to Victor Martinez beyond this year, when his contract expires.  Martinez has failed badly at throwing out (stealing) baserunners so far, and,  indications suggest he might not radically improve in this area.  If so, he could move to first base, but, then Youkilis would have to play third, and Adrian Beltre, one of his recruits, is there now.     

Epstein will have to decide what deal, if any, to make at the trading deadline.  Should the team give away players – like perhaps pitcher Clay Buchholz – to get a hitter like Adrian Gonzalez, or, perhaps concede the 2010 season and wait until the off-season to stock up on bats?

These are tough choices, especially in Boston, where fans in the past 25 years or so, have always expected at least a competitive team.  Right now, I think the current team will finish behind the Yankees and Rays and perhaps even slip to .500 status, but, its starting pitching seems good enough to prevent a losing record. 

Notice how gloomy I’m sounding after only three weeks?  Well, you need hitting to win, but the signs have been even worse!  Josh Beckett, who the Sox just signed to a new, four-year deal, has been quite unimpressive so far.  He’s 1-0 with 3 no-decisions and a 5.26 ERA, but, what’s more troubling is that he’s throwing with less velocity than the past few years.  (Beckett relies heavily on his fastball).  This has been unmentioned by Boston baseball writers so far, but, most of Beckett’s fastballs have been clocked at 93 mph – or a bit lower – rather than 96 mph – a common speed for Beckett in the past.  He’s continued his bad habit from late in 2009 of leaving fastballs over the plate, and, hitters are ready to smack them.   While Jon Lester has struggled in all three starts, I cannot believe he won’t find his stuff and be OK.  If not, the Sox record may plummet toward the Orioles’ results.

Another cause of concern beneath the radar?  Jonathan Papelbon.  While Papelbon has improved in his past two outings and increased his velocity a bit, his heater is lacking “giddy-up” — just as he lacked movement in the first part of 2009.   Last season, it took Papelbon a few months to find that “late life” in his fastball.  The difference now is that opposing hitters are much more ready to pounce on his heater.  Papelbon’s control has been so-so, as he often has had to throw repeated fastballs (fouled off) to put a hitter away rather than blowing the first few by someone — as he used to a few years ago.

Daniel Bard, the top-ranked setup pitcher now, has been fairly good, but, in only his second year, he still is learning, and, sometimes his fastballs catch too much of the plate, and, are hit hard.  Bard’s breaking stuff has improved, however.   The rest of the bullpen is a questionmark. 

So, how will Epstein and the Sox take the lemons and make lemonade somehow?  It’ll be interesting.  The odds appear stacked against this 2010 edition.

“We haven’t really done anything well, to be honest with you,” Epstein told yesterday’s Boston Globe.  “We’re not pitching, we’re not hitting, we’re not playing good defense. we’re not running the bases well.  So take your pick.”

OK, Theo.  I’ll add one more category:   The Red Sox GM has done a poor job assessing the talent on this 2010 team.    I hope he acquires more talent.

AJ: It’s Stellar Pitching or Bust for Red Sox

Most baseball observers agree the 2010 Red Sox starting rotation – on paper - is as good as any in baseball.  What is usually unstated is that unless the starting pitchers perform outstandingly, the team will have no chance to compete in the playoffs.   

After years of featuring superstar sluggers, the Boston Red Sox, suddenly, have a whole new make-up.  The bulk of the team’s talent and strength is found in its starting pitchers.  

The starters will be:  Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Clay Buchholz.  Veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is likely to be a reserve starter who will get his share of chances.

General Manager Theo Epstein has backtracked on his remark at baseball’s winter meetings that the Sox 2010 season would be a “bridge” to the future, when some of the team’s hot young prospects will be ready for the big league squad in 2011.  

  “..Never did I mean that we’re not going to be competitive this year or next year,” Epstein remarked in Dan Shaughnessy’s column in the Feb. 21st Boston Globe.   “…If we don’t score as many runs as we did last year, I certainly think we’ll make up for that in terms of our run prevention,” Epstein added.  “Our defense is going to be so much better.”

This is where Epstein loses me.   Dwelling on “run prevention” seems so unconvincing.  The Red Sox defense wasn’t THAT bad last year.  Plus, in general, it’s very hard to count on excellent defense to win a certain number of games for a team.  It just doesn’t work that way.   Unless……….the team gets incredible pitching.  That’s the one way this Red Sox edition can succeed in 2010. 

This pitching staff is, argubly, as good as any rotation on past Red Sox teams.  In 2004, the rotation was damned good – with Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe leading the way in that championship year.  I recall back in 1978, I was thrilled when Sports Illustrated  chose to run a big story on the Sox starting rotation of Dennis Eckersley, Mike Torrez, Louis Tiant and Bill Lee.   Of course, when Roger Clemens arrived and he and Bruce Hurst led the Sox quest for a title in 1986, that was a new experience for Sox fans like me, who were accustomed to years of mediocre pitching.

Consider this 2010 team’s individual pitchers.  Beckett is always competitive and self-motivated, but, this year, his adrenalin may flow even more.   He’s in the last year of his contract, and, has experienced frustrating injuries at the end of two consecutive seasons.  If he’s healthy, Beckett may really shine.  It’s all about his health.   Lester has become the best pitcher on the team.  He’s matured and can win games without his best stuff now – the sign of a top-notch starter.   Lackey shares that savvy.  He’s proven himself.  The last image I have of him is pitching impressively against the Yankees in the 2009 playoffs – not an easy task.  Matsuzaka has worked his butt off in the off-season.  He’s in great shape, lighter and with a hunger to make up for his lost season last year.   That leaves Buchholz, who may be poised for a genuine “breakout” season as a young, promising talent.  Buchholz has terrific stuff (a beautiful changeup) but simply has to prove he can be consistent for a whole season.

So, the question is whether the less powerful lineup of Sox hitters can combine for enough runs night in and night out to accumulate wins for their loaded pitching staff.   Will Adrian Beltre be a much better hitter at Fenway Park than he was at Safeco in Seattle?  If he gets in the habit of belting line drives off the Green Monster, he may be a key addition.  Will David Ortiz return to form?  Can Mike Cameron hit half-decently any more?  Can Victor Martinez accept that the prominent role he has now and keep up his clutch hitting?  Will Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis both hit consistently at a high level all year?  Can Marco Scutaro be a better-hitting shortstop than the team’s past few?

There are questionmarks about much of the Sox lineup.   The team’s hitting certainly does not come close to the talented lineup of the New York Yankees.  The Tampa Rays seem as ready as ever to compete for the AL East title. 

The difference between this Sox team and that of recent years is the lack of any margin for error with the starting pitching.  In the past, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz and other first-rate hitters often bailed out average pitching performances.   In 2010, I believe the Red Sox will either win a lot of low-scoring, well-pitched games OR they will not have a good year.  

Pitching is everything for the 2010 Red Sox.

AJ: Red Sox Need to Wait On Beckett

Christopher Gasper argued in his Boston Globe column last week that the Red Sox should get pitcher Josh Beckett signed to a new contract before the upcoming season starts.   Beckett will be a free agent at the end of this year.  I totally disagree with Gasper, who normally covers the Patriots.  

I think the Red Sox should take a good, hard look at Beckett during the first half of the 2010 season – and, perhaps, most of the season – before offering him a new deal.  Why?  Beckett ended the last two seasons with injuries or ailments and his pitching performance deteriorated.  Both times, his sub-par outings badly hurt the team in the playoffs.  In 2008, Beckett injured his oblique muscle and in 2009, he suffered back spasms, but, in the last weeks of both years, Beckett seemed fatigued and not his normal self on the mound.

I remember, as I watched him at the end of last year, whether he’d ever be the same pitcher.   In his playoff outing against the Angels, his fastball velocity and command were diminished and his curve lacked consistent bite.  On October 11, 2009, the day the Red Sox got swept by the Angels, I wrote on my old Red Sox blog:

“The Red Sox cannot ever view Josh Beckett the same way now. If he stays on the team, they will have to monitor him far more closely and plan proactively to help him avoid arm fatigue or injury….It’s not clear what’s going on with his arm. His arm appeared tired, to me, during the last two months. He couldn’t throw his fastball as hard or with the same good command and his curveball became less effective or consistent.”

 Yet,  to my surprise, Gasper and other sportswriters are writing about the Red Sox decision on whether to negotiate a new deal with Beckett without accurately describing how bad Beckett looked at the end of last season.

Beckett, in October, 2009,  was a shell of his old self.   All indications suggested the Red Sox simply chose to not discuss Beckett’s arm troubles candidly with the press.  It was embarrassing when the team – and Beckett – seemed to suggest he was struggling with mechanical issues rather than  acknowledging what was wrong with his arm.

I like Beckett, by the way.  How could any Sox fan not like this guy?  He’s competitive every minute on the mound.  He’s tough.  He’s a loyal teammate.  He’s reportedly a leader in the clubhouse.  

But, if the Red Sox want Beckett at his best, they should keep a closer eye on him in 2010.  They should give him extra rest whenever they can.   I’d not allow him to throw as many pitches in games as he used to – period.   I’d give him even more extra days off than in the past.  All the evidence shows that Beckett pitches much better on more rest.   

Plus, they need to see how Beckett makes it through the season.  Will he be throwing the ball as hard and well in August as he does in May?  Last year, his decline began in August. 

Hopefully, the Red Sox helped Beckett design and follow a smart off-season workout regimen that puts him in terrific shape at spring training and beyond.   The Red Sox have been good at helping pitchers build and maintain strength in the off-season;  however, they seemed to have some denial about Beckett’s strength at the end of the past two seasons.

If they learned anything, they should know there is NO reason to rush into signing a new deal with Josh Beckett.   If Beckett gets upset by not getting a deal done as the season starts or progresses, the team should tell him the truth:  They have concerns about the health of his arm and they need to see how he holds up in 2010.  

I think, it the Red Sox are smart, they’ll quietly negotiate with Beckett during the season, and, make an informal agreement that if he’s in good health by a certain date in the second half, then they can resume negotiations and try to wrap up a new deal rather than give him reasons to become a free agent.  The Red Sox do not usually negotiate with players during the season, but, they make exceptions on occasion.

They can and should make an exception with Beckett, but, only after he’s demonstrated his arm is strong again.