Most baseball observers agree the 2010 Red Sox starting rotation – on paper - is as good as any in baseball. What is usually unstated is that unless the starting pitchers perform outstandingly, the team will have no chance to compete in the playoffs.
After years of featuring superstar sluggers, the Boston Red Sox, suddenly, have a whole new make-up. The bulk of the team’s talent and strength is found in its starting pitchers.
The starters will be: Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Clay Buchholz. Veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is likely to be a reserve starter who will get his share of chances.
General Manager Theo Epstein has backtracked on his remark at baseball’s winter meetings that the Sox 2010 season would be a “bridge” to the future, when some of the team’s hot young prospects will be ready for the big league squad in 2011.
“..Never did I mean that we’re not going to be competitive this year or next year,” Epstein remarked in Dan Shaughnessy’s column in the Feb. 21st Boston Globe. “…If we don’t score as many runs as we did last year, I certainly think we’ll make up for that in terms of our run prevention,” Epstein added. “Our defense is going to be so much better.”
This is where Epstein loses me. Dwelling on “run prevention” seems so unconvincing. The Red Sox defense wasn’t THAT bad last year. Plus, in general, it’s very hard to count on excellent defense to win a certain number of games for a team. It just doesn’t work that way. Unless……….the team gets incredible pitching. That’s the one way this Red Sox edition can succeed in 2010.
This pitching staff is, argubly, as good as any rotation on past Red Sox teams. In 2004, the rotation was damned good – with Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe leading the way in that championship year. I recall back in 1978, I was thrilled when Sports Illustrated chose to run a big story on the Sox starting rotation of Dennis Eckersley, Mike Torrez, Louis Tiant and Bill Lee. Of course, when Roger Clemens arrived and he and Bruce Hurst led the Sox quest for a title in 1986, that was a new experience for Sox fans like me, who were accustomed to years of mediocre pitching.
Consider this 2010 team’s individual pitchers. Beckett is always competitive and self-motivated, but, this year, his adrenalin may flow even more. He’s in the last year of his contract, and, has experienced frustrating injuries at the end of two consecutive seasons. If he’s healthy, Beckett may really shine. It’s all about his health. Lester has become the best pitcher on the team. He’s matured and can win games without his best stuff now – the sign of a top-notch starter. Lackey shares that savvy. He’s proven himself. The last image I have of him is pitching impressively against the Yankees in the 2009 playoffs – not an easy task. Matsuzaka has worked his butt off in the off-season. He’s in great shape, lighter and with a hunger to make up for his lost season last year. That leaves Buchholz, who may be poised for a genuine “breakout” season as a young, promising talent. Buchholz has terrific stuff (a beautiful changeup) but simply has to prove he can be consistent for a whole season.
So, the question is whether the less powerful lineup of Sox hitters can combine for enough runs night in and night out to accumulate wins for their loaded pitching staff. Will Adrian Beltre be a much better hitter at Fenway Park than he was at Safeco in Seattle? If he gets in the habit of belting line drives off the Green Monster, he may be a key addition. Will David Ortiz return to form? Can Mike Cameron hit half-decently any more? Can Victor Martinez accept that the prominent role he has now and keep up his clutch hitting? Will Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis both hit consistently at a high level all year? Can Marco Scutaro be a better-hitting shortstop than the team’s past few?
There are questionmarks about much of the Sox lineup. The team’s hitting certainly does not come close to the talented lineup of the New York Yankees. The Tampa Rays seem as ready as ever to compete for the AL East title.
The difference between this Sox team and that of recent years is the lack of any margin for error with the starting pitching. In the past, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz and other first-rate hitters often bailed out average pitching performances. In 2010, I believe the Red Sox will either win a lot of low-scoring, well-pitched games OR they will not have a good year.
Pitching is everything for the 2010 Red Sox.
