Red Sox GM Theo Epstein had just finished praising JD Drew’s statistics for “runs scored” and “on-base percentage” during a Sept. 30th radio interview, when he expounded on the topic of RBIs.
“You guys can talk about RBIs if you want,” Epstein told interviewers Michael Felger and Tony Massarotti on “98.5: The Sports Hub,” “I just…we ignore them in the front office. , and I think we’ve built some pretty good offensive clubs. If you want to talk about RBIs at all, talk about them as a percentage of opportunity, but, it’s not a way or something we use to evaluate offensive players.”
Theo knows his stats, but, I don’t like to hear him downplay RBIs that much. Call me a baseball “traditionalist,” but I place a lot of weight on RBIs. I know it’s the rage to harp on OBP and OPS, but, to me, the important, intriguing side of baseball is often who can knock in runs – especially against a front-line pitcher when the game is on the line. Usually, who gets key RBIs involves far more than mathematical probability.
I prefer focusing most on what I see with my eyes on the field. I look at the human part of the game – the intangibles. I notice which hitters get RBIs, especially on the Red Sox, but, also on other teams. Consider the just-completed post-season, which, to me, illustrated the limited value of stats. First, in the Angels’ LDS and LCS series, which Angels’ hitter got the most hits and RBI? It was Vladimir Guerrero, who most baseball pundits had written off as a player in decline. Meanwhile Chone Figgins, the Angels’ electric leadoff hittter, had another horrible postseason, barely getting the bat on the ball, and Jeff Mathis, a backup catcher, hit better than most of his Angel teammates.
Do stats explain this? No. Are there intangible factors that seemed to come into play? Yes. The Angels, including Figgins, did not look confident or loose at times. Maybe Vlad and Mathis were loose.
Then, consider a few Yankees to further make the point. Alex Rodriguez had his best post-season. Again, stats were irrelevant in predicting that. Instead, A-Rod’s performance likely had more to do with him feeling looser and feeling less internal or external pressure. Maybe Kate Hudson helped. Who knows? Mark Teixeira didn’t hit that well, but, it was his first post-season for the Bombers. Robinson Cano didn’t hit that well, but, I’ve noticed he’s seems to tighten up a bit in the playoffs.
My point here is that it takes skill, attitude, focus and learned habits to become a great RBI hitter. Manny Ramirez has hit a TON of RBIs, perhaps because of his being loose, but focused in his at-bast, including the big ones.
Having an ability to hit different pitches from different pitchers when men are on base involves skill, but, also, a special focus and some intangibles that aren’t always reflected in stats. For instance, take Mike Lowell on the Red Sox. He’s a good fastball hitter who often struggles hitting breaking pitches, but, when Lowell is up with guys on base and facing two strikes, Lowell chokes up on the bat to improve his chances for making contact. Lowell is a better hitter with men on base and gets more RBIs than some of his teammates. He has a good attitude at the plate and does whatever he can to knock the ball to the outfield.
Derek Jeter is about the best example imaginable of having an “RBI mentality.” With men on base, Jeter adjusts his swing – often to that “inside-out” approach – and often sticks his bat out to make contact. How many times have we seen Jeter poke a hit just past the infield or line the ball to right to knock in key runs in a playoff game?
Well, I’d argue that this kind of ability at the plate is an invaluable skill for a player. It means far more than OBP or runs scored. Lowell, by the way, in my view, is a much better baseball player than JD Drew. Yeah, Drew knows how to draw walks and get on base, but I’d take Lowell hitting with guys on base – and, Lowell will win more games knocking in runs than Drew will with his walks.
I don’t understand these “modern” arguments that RBIs have such limited value. Maybe Big Mike, who knows baseball stats more than me, can explain it. But, I’m sure, in the end, I’ll still have my own interpretation.
I’ve watched far too much baseball to not have my own theories and impressions. I watched in 1967, when Carl Yastrzemski (Yaz) had perhaps the best “clutch” season of any player I’ve seen. It wasn’t just that Yaz knocked in one key run to help win one big game after another; it was that the more critical the game, the more Yaz came through. I’m thinking about how Yaz went 7-8 in the last two games of that season and the Sox won those two games vs. the Twins and barely squeaked into the playoffs. Years later, I watched Yaz get another big clutch hit at the 1978 one-game playoff against the Yankees. It was his first at-bat and he was facing Ron Guidry, who went 25 – 3 that year and was on fire. Yaz belted a line-drive home run around the right-field foul pole and I recall viewing the hit, at that moment, as a loud “Fuck You” to the Yankees. It gave the Sox a wake-up jolt. A key RBI, I’d say!
Flash forward to the Sox playoff game in 1986 vs the Angels, when the Sox were down 3-1 – in an elimination game, trailing 5-2 going into the 9th inning. First, Don Baylor, miraculously, reached out to hit an outside pitch for a two-run homer, making it 5-4. Then, Davd Henderson, a utility outfielder till then, came up and the count ran to two strikes against him. The Sox were one strike away from elimination. Henderson hit a 2-run HR, the Sox won the game, then, the ACLS, before losing to the Mets in the crazy Buckner game.
Something gave Baylor and Henderson the concentration to hit those incredible clutch home runs, but, I’m convinced many players would NOT have been equipped to do so.
As Theo Epstein tries to strengthen the 2010 Red Sox, he should confront the fact that he lacks enough players who are good at hitting RBIs in clutch situations. In fact, it was a huge problem on the team in 2009. The team always left a lot of men on base, often struggling to make contact against above-average pitching. Kevin Youkilis is good at driving men in. Lowell is good. Victor Martinez is good. Yet, the rest of the lineup is not impressive with men on base: That includes Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz , Drew, Gonzalez. (Ortiz his many RBIs in “garbage time” and often failed to hit with men on base) That leaves Bay, and, believe it or not, even Bay has limitations with RBIs. Many of his RBIs come with his home runs and, Bay went into long slumps. Further, Bay often cannot drive players in when he’s facing pitchers with breaking stuff.
So, the 2010 Red Sox are a far cry from the 2004 Sox; yet, sometimes I get a sense Theo is in denial about the huge disparity in hitting that has been exposed. Ramirez and Ortiz were RBI machines. They’re gone and you can’t just put a few good OBP guys in a lineup and expect the same results.
So, Theo, while we know we need Red Sox players who can get on base, we also need a few guys with the makeup to drive them in. RBIs are very important.
