AJ: Cubs Appear Off-Duty in Off-Season

If I were a diehard Cubs fan, I’d be bummed out too, Big Mike. 

The Cubs’ biggest off-season move — except for trading Milton Bradley — has been to sign Marlon Byrd to a three-year $15 million contract to play center field?  Are you kidding me? 

Now, Byrd seems half-decent, but, come on!  With the payroll the Cubs have now, they can’t make any additional moves of significance to improve the team?  Maybe they have one more move to make, but, from the little coverage I’ve seen, it seems the Cubs have been sleepy this off-season, and,  it seems they think they can get away with that.  I’m sure some fans are pissed off, but, I still sense the Cubs front office does not feel adequate HEAT to make them feel pressure to do more.

I just reviewed the  Cubs’  recent history and was reminded that the 2008 team won 97 games!  97 fucking games!  That’s too impressive a record to be followed by the decline last year, and, then, such a quiet off-season before 2010.

I’m still learning about the Cubs, but I have questions about some of the player contracts, Big Mike.  A few of the contracts seem too large and too long.  Why the hell did Carlos Zambrano make $18,750,00 in 2009?  Can you tell me that?  Zambrano may have talent, but, that’s too crazy an amount to be dishing out to any pitcher unless they’re The Best in baseball.  For example, even C.C. Sabathia, who was outstanding in 2009, earned a salary $3.5 million less than Zambrano’s $18.7 million.  It just seems the Cubs’ contracts for Zambrano and Alfonso Soriano are excessive, particularly Soriano’s eight-year, $136 million deal.

Maybe I’ll become more acquainted with the Cubs wheeling and dealing in 2010, but, it seems their expectations are too low – given they still have a base of some players from that high-quality 2008 team.

To tell you the truth, even though the Red Sox of recent years always make moves in the off-season, I think it’s unfair that so many other teams operate on such smaller budgets that they cannot do much season to season to improve.  I don’t know the full ramifications of imposing a salary cap in baseball, but, it’s hard to deny that it’d bring a hell of a lot more balance.

I feel compelled to remind you, Big Mike, that while Chicago fans seem resigned to the Cubs starting the 2010 season without much new blood, Red Sox fans are already airing discontent every day about GM Theo Epstein allowing Jason Bay to walk and his failure to add a top hitter or two to fill the void.   I am sure that if the Sox fail to hit in the first few months of 2010, that the Red Sox brass will feel sufficient fan dissatisfaction to at least influence their outlook.   In fact, I’m confident they’d make a big move by the July trading deadline.

In Boston, the current ownership group wants to win and keep the fans happy.  Can the same be said about the Chicago Cubs?

Big Mike: The Bronx Bull?

You’re gonna hate this, AJ. Don’t say you haven’t been warned, but the grapevine has it that the Yanks and the Cubs are talking about a Carlos Zambrano swap.

I’ll tell you flat out, this instant, I want Hungry Jim Hendry to do it.

Nothing would signify a break with the dumb-assed past more than to ship Big Z somewhere — anywhere — else. Don’t get me wrong, Z’s a fine pitcher. Wins 12 to 16 games a year. Always better than average ERAs and peripherals. A fierce competitor.

But he’s pushing 30, baby, and his body is starting to remind him of it. He’s had some back issues recently that could have been alleviated or even avoided altogether had he been doing some serious exercise. Leave it to the goddamned Cubs to let their big-ticket ace pitcher go through life not taking care of his body. Someone should have gotten in his face and said Hey, we’re paying you $15M a year — do some ab crunches!. Of course, knowing the Cubs, they probably send him a dozen fresh creampuffs every morning for breakfast.

Anyway, Z’s make-up is symbolic of much of what’s wrong with the Cubs. He’s uncontrolled, impulsive, reactionary, prone to panic, refuses to think strategically…, I’d better stop before I start crying. Here’s Carlos Zambrano in a nutshell: last year, after striking out in a game, he broke the bat over his knee. This is a freakin’ pitcher we’re talking about!

Trading Z to the Yanks would bring back some prospects and free up the $70M-plus the Cubs owe him over the next four years. Let the big, rich New Yorkers fork over that kind of dough.

In fact, I don’t care of trading him means the Cubs will have no shot in 2010 or even ’11! Right now, Hungry Jim’s ugly, back-loaded NTCs most likely will prevent the team from winning anything in the next couple of years anyway. Big Z’s deal isn’t as bad as Fonzie‘s, but no one going to take Soriano off our hands. Z’s one of the very few assets the Cubs have that would be attractive to any other sane GM in the game.

Big Mike: A Strength Becomes A Problem

My hopes that the Cubs may actually do something in 2010 begin with the team’s strength — the starting pitching. For the past three years, the Cubs have had one of the top starting staffs in the game.

The team’s recent phase of division title contention may have begun, symbolically, when then-owner Sam Zell ordered Hungry Jim Hendry to pad the payroll in order to make the property look more exciting to potential buyers (resulting in the ridiculous Alfonso Soriano deal) but the wins on the field have come about as a direct result of the development of Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster and the signing of Ted Lilly. So, the Cubs’ run began, actually, in 2002 with the insertion of the 21-year-old Zambrano into the rotation.

Big Z ain’t the ace everybody wants him to be (and the Cubs are paying him to be), but he’s a fine major league pitcher whom any team would love to have. I say this despite the fact that his mercurial emotional displays drive me batty and sometimes are detrimental to the team’s success. He shouldn’t be mentioned in the same breath as Tim Lincecum or Johan Santana but he’s a solid hurler. If you have three guys with the talent and capabilities of Carlos Zambrano in your rotation (minus the infantile displays), you’re gonna win a pennant or three.

The Cubs’ outlier division championship in 2003 hinged on a rotation of Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Zambrano, Matt Clement and Shawn Estes. That’s what won them 88 games that year. We all expected Wood and Prior to be flinging for the Cubs and making all-star teams well into the ‘teens. They would be next Johnson & Schilling, Maddux & Glavine, Koufax & Drysdale or even Washington & Jefferson. Sadly, we discovered that they were so spectacular because each was throwing in a way guaranteed to make spaghetti out of the tendons, ligaments and other soft tissues of his elbow and shoulder.

Not long ago I watched a replay of Wood’s brilliant 20-strikeout one-hitter against the Astros in May of 1998 (MLB has forced You Tube to remove the video due to copyright restrictions — it can be watched for a price). If you ever get a chance, try to see it. Your jaw will drop, as mine did, at Wood’s repertoire of 96-mph fastball, physics-defying curve and downright unfair slider. The movement he put on those pitches made him unhittable on that day (Houston’s only hit was a weak grounder that flicked off third baseman Kevin Orie’s glove).

Was Wood the most talented pitcher in the history of the game? The answer is quite possibly yes. Unfortunately for him — and me and the rest of Cubworld — the reason why no one before or since him has been able to make the ball do the things he did is because the human body will not allow it over a period of years. He must have endured unspeakable pain before his right arm joints broke down.

As for Prior, his motion, which included the now notorious “Inverted W” position, guaranteed his inevitable arm woes.

Sigh.

Anyway, Hungry Jim found a way to rebuild his staff around Big Z and by 2007, Cubs pitchers ranked second in the league in runs allowed despite doing their work in a bandbox. They ranked second again in ’08 and fourth last season.

I flog Hendry regularly for his inability to build a team in a true sense (he’s more a fantasy league-type GM, buying names as opposed to constructing a machine of interacting parts) but I’ve got to hand it to him for inking Ted Lilly as he (Hendry) was hooked up to an EKG monitor in a hospital ICU in December 2006. Lilly’s the kind of pitcher I’d look for in free agency even more than a Sabathia-type ace. At one-third or one-fourth the price of a superstar, Lilly eats innings, almost always turns in a quality start, and frees up money for other needs.

Last season. Lilly was the true ace of the Cubs staff, even making the all-star team. As Cubworld was creaming over his performance, he and the team kept secret the shoulder pain he began to feel in June. Then out of the blue, it was announced that Lilly had undergone arthroscopic surgery on that shoulder in early November. Eek. The Cubs and Lilly are all giddy over the results of the procedure but he won’t be able to start a game until late April at the earliest.

With the loss of Rich Harden to free agency (which is hardly a loss at all, really, because his short outings nuked the bullpen for weeks at a time) the Cubs opening day rotation will be Zambrano and Dempster along with the surprising Randy Wells (can he continue to surprise?) the iffy Sean Marshall, the mediocre Tom Gorzelanny and the overhyped Jeff Samardzija.

Suddenly, that team strength is now a big question mark. My philosophy has always been you can win a World Series with three good starters and a shut-down closer. Now the Cubs have two good starters and closer who’ll either be lights-out or a walk machine.

I’d hate to think my hopes for 2010 will be dashed before the calendar even turns.

Big Mike: Milton The Monster

Wrigleyville (the community of fans as opposed to the neighborhood around the ballpark) is abuzz with speculation about whom the Cubs will get in exchange for one Milton (no middle name) Bradley of Harbor City, California.

Shoot, I thought all mass murderers or assassins had middle names. Isn’t that what Milton Bradley is? For all the bile spewed in his name since his very first game at Wrigley Field as a Cub, Bradley has to rank among John Wayne Gacy and Richard Franklin Speck as a local villain.

Of course, he’s brought much of the odium on himself but the rage expressed at Bradley is alarming. I mean, jeez, he’s just a ballplayer, albeit one with a paranoiac streak and who can’t control his rages and alienates just about everyone he’s ever shared a shower room with. It’s not like he lied to the country to whip up war fever or is mad because taxpayers won’t pick up the tab for an eight-figure bonus he thinks he should get.

Still, don’t count me among the Bradley defenders. (Then again, are there any Milton Bradley defenders anywhere?) I’m one of those numbers-crunching stats geeks old-time baseball fans like to pillory. I’ll always look to a player’s BAbip, VORP, WARP2, OPS+, UZR, and occasionally his pH level rather than fairy tale attributes like “character,” “ability in the clutch,” and (ugh) “scrappiness.” I have no idea what a “gamer” is but I do know how many Runs Created each player on the Cubs roster was responsible for in 2009. And Milton Bradley is one fine ballplayer based on any metric you can name.

That said, there’s no place for him here next year. If you can find anybody who’ll disagree, then you ought to play the lottery.

Gameboard is owed $21M for both the 2010 and ’11 seasons. The other 29 GMs in MLB know Jim Hendry has to exile Bradley from Cubville. So you might think Hungry Jim is over a barrel. He may have to eat up to $10M of Milton’s remaining pay and accept some other team’s albatross in the bargain. You may be right. Yet, there’s always someone who thinks he can handle the other guy’s problems, especially if that problem is good for a plus-.375 on-base percentage. Might someone be willing to swap some usable talent for him?

The Mets are said to be sick to death of both Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran. The Rays are stuck with Pat Burrell’s big contract. The Blue Jays may want to rid themselves of Vernon Wells’ bloated contract. Then there are the Red Sox who always are on the lookout for hitters who produce, leaving others to fight among themselves over the Boy Scouts.

Some say Hendry ought to agree to a deal with the first team that offers to take Bradley off his hands, no matter the return. But reporters like Ken Rosenthal and Bruce Miles claim their sources tell them Hendry already has received more than courtesy calls regarding the wayward rightfielder. Even if Hendry takes his time to sort through whatever competing offers there may be, he has to close the book on Bradley before or at least early on in December’s general managers meeting. The Cubs absolutely cannot stand still as they did in the 2004-05 off-season while trying to exile Sammy Sosa. Not only did they get next to nothing back for a man who’ll waltz into the Hall of Fame, they were unable to pull the trigger on any other signings that might have actually improved their chances the next season. In the weeks leading up to Sammy’s foregone departure, other teams snapped up the likes of Beltran, Magglio Ordonez and even Roger Clemens. I’m getting aroused just thinking about any of those three on the Cubs.

Anyway, Hungry Jim has about five weeks, max, to peddle Bradley. If he doesn’t do the deed by then he may as well hang on to him, which means a lot of unneeded clubhouse drama next season. Whereas clubhouse drama doesn’t necessarily preclude the winning of the World Series, as the mid-70s A’s or late-70s Yankees proved, it doesn’t make the task any easier. And, it must be said, the 2010 Cubs will not compare favorably with either the of those champs.

Had I magic in the snap of my fingers, I’d put together a package of Carlos Zambrano, Milton Bradley and Sean Marshall for Beltran and Reyes. Everybody’s happy that way — the Mets get rid of a couple of guys whom they (wrongly) consider lacking and they get the stud pitcher and outfield masher they so crave. The Cubs, meanwhile, wave bye-bye to their most villified player since Todd Hundley as well as a guy whose mound blow-ups are becoming increasingly intolerable. Plus, they get a brilliant switch-hitting leadoff man shortstop and slugging centerfielder, neither of which they’ve had since the Fillmore administration. Sigh.

Will it happen? Hell no! But that’s what I love about the hot stove season — I can pretend it might.

Big Mike: My Heart Bleeds Only For Me

I agree 10,000 percent with your last point. And I wonder if I hadn’t made myself clear in my Nomar post. Hendry was jobbed on that trade. Not necessarily because of anything he gave up (primarily Francis Beltran — ugh! — and Brendan Harris — meh) but because he thought he was getting Nomar Fucking Garciaparra, the great shortstop.

What he really got, as I implied, was nomar garciaparra the fairly decent hitter and liability in the field.

My feelings on Hungry Jim have changed through the years. That’s probably because he’s the most Jeckyll and Hyde GM I’ve ever seen. Within his first two years on the job, he flushed Todd Hundley off the roster and swindled the Pirates and Marlins out of corner infielders who each can be reasonably argued as among the greatest ever in Cubs history at his position. Hendry exiled the drunken, bitter, impotent Son-of-the-Sainted-Randy to LA for Eric Karros and Mark Grudzielanek, who played key roles on the 2003 division champs. That summer, he shipped a minor league catcher, a grossly overhyped Triple A second baseman and an eminently forgettable major league infielder to Pitt for Aramis Ramirez, whom the Bucs had soured on for reasons known only to a team that has spent the last 17 years under .500. A few months later, he sent Hee Seop Choi to the Fish for Derrek Lee.

So for a brief shining moment, I hailed Hungry Jim as a cross between Branch Rickey and Isaac Newton.

But then…, but then, but then. Hungry Jim, the big boss man of the Cubs allowed Johnnie B. Baker to cripple Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Hendry signed everybody and his brother on the team to big, fat, long-term, no-trade-clause contracts and now he’s stuck with them. He showered Alfonso Soriano with gold through 2014 (when he’ll be 38 years old, unable to run around the mound — much less the bases, and still incapable of laying off the outside curve.) He allowed Baker to miscast LaTroy Hawkins as a closer. When the time came to dump Sammy Sosa, Hendry did everything he could — up to and including releasing security video of Sammy ditching the last game of the season — to destroy whatever trade value he had left. After losing out on free agent Rafael Furcal, Hendry panicked and traded a trio of decent minor league arms for the indecent Juan Pierre. Then he upended the roster of a team that had just won 97 games to sign the Lee Harvey Oswald of Major League Baseball, Milton Bradley (I didn’t do what they say I did…, I’m a patsy!)

Every night before I go to bed, I pray to the god I don’t believe in to make Jim Hendry suddenly want to up and join the Peace Corps.

Yeah, you’re right. To say, as you did, that the Cubs have not shown savvy in acquiring players (even allowing for the aforementioned glaring exceptions) is to utter the understatement of the century. And, yeah, I’m jealous as hell of a guy for whom 95 wins isn’t enough.

That said, let’s get down to cases. Is it possible for the 2010 Cubs to win anything near 95 games? Phe-e-e-e-w!

I’ll go so far as to say I’d bet the new home deed that they won’t. They can, though, win 85 to 92 games — anything within that range might well be enough to cop the NL Central. And, as I’ve said many times before, once you get into the playoffs anything can happen.

They need, as even a teething baby knows, to get rid of Gameboard. When Bradley was suspended for the remainder of the season in September, players literally lined up to tell reporters how much they approved of his banishment. That’s unheard of. It’s also prima facie evidence they see his mental illness (trust me on this diagnosis) as an unneeded distraction.

If they can palm him off on a sucker, they need to find a second baseman, a shortstop and a centerfielder. Yuck. Conventional wisdom holds that the core of a good team is up the middle. And if Geo Soto doesn’t lay off the post-toke munchies, they’ll need a catcher, too. Yikes!

Did I say 85-92 wins?

Well, yeah, I did. They have a terrific starting staff, even if it is nominally led by the puerile, bullying, prickish knucklehead, Carlos Zambrano. Ted Lilly really is the ace of the staff (his signing is another example of Hendry as Dr Jeckyll.) Ryan Dempster is a decent number three and Randy Wells appears to be a nice end-of-the rotation guy. Sweet Lou will choose between Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall and Milo Samardzija’s bastard son for the fifth starter spot — not a bad choice to be faced with.

The bullpen looks fine as long as Hendry can re-sign lefty John Grabow. Carlos Marmol now seems to be taking to the closer’s role better than the set-up man’s. Angel Guzman and a slew of live-armed kids (Berg, Caridad and Stevens) will fill out the pen.

The entire staff ought to keep the team ERA hovering around 4.00, which should be good enough as long as the Cubs can find a way to score runs. If Soriano and Soto bounce back nicely, D-Lee doesn’t suddenly grow old before our eyes and Aramis simply does what he’s been doing for seven straight years, that division title is no pipe dream.

My fingers are crossed that — in lieu of some shocking blockbuster deal — Ryan Theriot and Jeff Baker can man the keystone without embarrassing themselves. As for centerfield, well, um, Hey AJ, you got a mitt?

Big Mike: My Heart Bleeds For You, AJ

Poor AJ. His boys won 95 games in 2009. Apparently they were the wrong kind of wins. Or something.

I would have sawed off my right pinkie for 95 wins (not my left pinkie, though, since I’m trying to learn how to play the guitar.)

Are your fears for the Flaming Hose really warranted? Ortiz’s RBI were “quiet”? Bay “put up terrific numbers but… he’s a bit overrated”? Papelbon “gave up walks or hits and often had difficulty finishing batters off”? Ellsbury “can be pitched to by better pitchers”? Sheesh!

Whaddya want 105 wins?

I suppose the answer yes. Who wouldn’t want 105 wins? But no one — repeat, no one — can construct a team with the expectation that they’ll win 105. Not even the colossus that occupies new Yankee Stadium won 105 (of course, they did knock off 103 opponents but let’s not quibble.)

Have the Red Sox and their fans become — dare I say it — too demanding? It seems a short half decade ago, il Nazione del Calzini Rossi would have been thrilled to string up 95 fascisti. Now, 95 wins — bah! A bag of shells.

Were I the majordomo of the Sox, I wouldn’t worry too much about Papelbon’s walks or hits (his WHIP stood at a fine 1.15.) If Bay’s putting up terrific numbers, I’d say, Keep it up, Jason my boy. As for Ellsbury’s problems with better pitchers? Um, I’d guess the reason those guys are “better pitchers” is because they get most guys out, period.

I would fret a little about David Ortiz. He’s now 34 years old and weighs 230 pounds — at least that’s what the Red Sox web site claims. His bathroom scale might dissent. His best years are like a big ass — behind him. Then again, most AL teams would drool over the prospect of their DHs putting up mediocre Ortiz numbers. The Boston club really ain’t got much to worry about does it?

Sometimes fans and even GMs can overreact. Take last off-season. After the Cubs had led the National League with 97 wins, they went out and jumped in front of that speeding bus from LA. Fans boo-hooed as if the Cubs had gone sub-.500. Lou Piniella suggested that maybe the team needed a left handed bat to counteract teams loading up with righthanders against them — as the Dodgers did. Hungry Jim Hendry promptly turned over 40 percent of his roster, mainly in an effort to afford the $30M/3-year deal he bestowed upon Milton Bradley.

Pardon me while I have a seizure. Gurgle, gulp, ack-ack-ack. The memory of the Bradley signing is now a lesion in my brain that occasionally causes electrical disturbances among my remaining several hundred neurons. Ah — all better now.

Hendry dumped Mark DeRosa, Kerry Wood and Jason Marquis, all in an effort to squeeze Gameboard into the budget. The 2009 team could have used a nice fifth starter like Marquis (who, by the way, went to the all-star game.) They would have benefitted greatly from DeRosa’s 23 home runs, especially in Aramis Ramirez’s absence. Wood? Well, he stunk the joint up with the Tribe but he still was better than the execrable Kevin Gregg.

Be careful what you wish for, AJ. What’s Theo Epstein to do? Look for a centerfielder? Yeah, you could do better than young Jacoby. You could grab Carlos Beltran from the Mets and hope he thrives in Fenway. But at what cost?

Should Theo let Bay or Drew walk? Whaddya gonna do then? Play Joey Gathright and Rocco Baldelli?

In terms of planning, a good GM walks the tightrope. He (or she — Kim Ng, I hear, is in the running for the Padres job) can’t rely on an unchanging roster year after year. He also can’t swap his assets like so many baseball cards.

The Big Mike Philosophy of Building a Baseball Team, taught at the better universities around the country, holds that the GM should build his team with an aim to win 90 games. If your team is a consistent 90-game-winner, you’ll be battling for the division title every single year. And while the team may occasionally dip to 84-78, it’ll just as often rise to 96-66. That’s definite Champagne territory.

Now you may say 96 wins is fine for the Minnesota Twins or the Colorado Rockies but the Red Sox share a division with the Yankees. Okay. Let the Yanks spend $200M every year and win the East. It’s no dishonor to sneak into the playoffs via the Wild Card. In fact, the Red Sox of 2004 rode that ticket to their first World Series win in 10,000 years (that ancient triumph over the hated Jericho Palms!)

Just because New York assembled an all-star team and danced to the division title doesn’t mean Theo (and you) should panic. Theo (and you) should start planning for a future without Big Papi but the current lineup built around Pedroia, Bay, Youkilis and Martinez (assuming everybody’s re-signed) is scarier than a Glenn Beck commentary.

Boston is a lock to win at least 90 in 2010. Even if David Ortiz’s bat continues to soften and Josh Beckett’s back continues to throb, the Red Sox, along with the Yankees and Angels, will be the cream of the league. You worry too much.

Me? I’ve got Bradley in right field, Carlos Zambrano on the mound, and a century-plus of losing on my mind. I worry.