AJ: For Buchholz, It’s All in the Mind

No one questions the raw talent of 25-year-old Red Sox pitcher Clay Buchholz.   What remains unknown is whether Buchholz can make real strides in the mental aspects of pitching. 

In 2007, when Buchholz took the mound for only his second start in the big leagues, he threw a dazzling no-hitter against the Baltimore Orioles.  I remember watching the last few innings of that game and being struck by Buchholz’s “stuff.”  His changeup was beautiful to watch, and, his curveball was virtually unhittable too.

Then, once in the starting rotation in 2008, Buchholz struggled, and things just got worse and worse.  He ended with a 2-9 record and a 6.75 ERA, but, perhaps more troubling, one could see Buchholz lose his confidence rather dramatically as the season went on.   Last year, Buchholz started in the minors, but, when called up to the Sox,  the results were much better.  He made several good starts late in the summer, and, one good outing in the 2009 playoffs vs. the Los Angeles Angels.

So, one would hope and expect Buchholz, this time, would be on his way for 2010.  Yet, with only ten days left in Spring Training, there are lingering uncertainties about Buchholz psyche and his ability to maintain his focus and “edge” on the mound.

Buchholz has had two bad outings this spring, but, again, it’s how he’s struggled that reminds one he might not be done learning the mental side of pitching.  He’s had trouble keeping his focus with men on base – something that has been a problem in his big-league experience so far.  Plus, he still shows signs of doubting his stuff or ability at times when you’d perhaps expect him to be over that by now.

After his most recent March 23rd outing vs. the Minnesota Twins, Buchholz acknowledged he had been too distracted by Twins’  baserunners.   Sox Manager Terry Francona said that was an ongoing challenge.

“It’s something we continue to talk about,” Francona told Sean McAdam, in a March 25th article for Comcast Sportsnet New England, (CSNNE)  “because I think sometimes his attention gets divided.”

Francona shared Buchholz’ view that at times, Buchholz was trying to be too perfect with his pitching rather than trusting his stuff more and throwing it in the strike zone more.

These remarks don’t tell the whole story, though.  The striking part for Buchholz is the extent to which he “unravels” mentally on the mound.  Once he gives up a few hits, often, he visibly loses his confidence and his performance goes straight downhill a bit more glaringly than you see with other pitchers.   Buchholz does seem a bit hung up on trying to nibble on the corners rather than challenge hitters.  In particular, this seems true of his fastball, which tends to get hit the most in the zone.  I agree with others who have noted that if Buchholz can improve his fastball just a bit and get more confidence in it,  that may be the key to him taking off as a pitcher. 

Yet, I recall, from watching him, that it’s when he gets behind in the count, that he tends to lose his “edge” or confidence, and, sometimes, the throws a meaty fastball down the middle and it gets crushed.

It seems more of a mental challenge than physical.    I dont’ know what will put Buchholz on a consistent track.  Maybe he has to learn it’s OK to throw “hittable” pitches (especially fastballs) and to trust his fielders to help him win.  Maybe it’s 90 percent an “internal” issue for him — that only he can improve on by finding ways to concentrate at the key moments.

Whatever it is, Buchholz needs to make some progress this year or he may find himself no longer on the Red Sox.  It’s time for him to show what  he can do – now.

In fact, McAdam, a veteran Boston baseball writer, speculated in his article for CSNNE that it would seem somewhat harder for the Sox to leave Buchholz in the 5th spot in the starting rotation now than Tim Wakefield, the 43-year-old knuckleballer, who has pitched better this spring.

Buchholz has said he’s not assuming he’s won the spot. 

“I’ll just basically go out and pitch like I can, throw the ball well and let the organization decide what they want to do,” Buchholz told Ian Browne of MLB.com

I wish, at this point, Buchholz had the confidence to say he expects to be in the rotation and will be disappointed if he’s not.

But, first, I guess, he has to feel confident and focused while pitching with men on base or when he’s behind in the count.

Buchholz must learn to improve his mental focus if he is to become the ace who pitched that no-no back in 2007.

Big Mike: Making A Cadillac Payment On A Chevy

John Lackey is good. That’s as far as I’ll go. As I wrote earlier, I like good, smart pitchers. I’d rather have a staff filled with competent, cagey starters than one top heavy with an ace and a near-ace followed by a bunch of question marks.

Theo gave Lackey $17M/year for five years. The Boston boss can afford the investment even if Lackey breaks down or suddenly becomes more hittable. The Sox and the Yanks are the only two teams in baseball that can make such a deal with a pitcher of his caliber and not be financially hamstrung for a half decade. More power to Epstein and Brian Cashman.

Had Hungry Jim Hendry or Kenny Williams made the deal, though, I’d have called for their scalps.

Let’s take a look at your new mound star. He has excellent control, rarely gives up a home run and has a decent strike out rate. I’d be worried, though, about his hit-ability. For his career, Lackey has given up 9.1 hits per nine innings. He’s not dominating. At $85M, I’d want dominating. Then again, I’d never make an $85M investment in a pitcher in the first place, even if he gave up only seven hits per nine.

It seems that Lackey hit his peak in 2007, when he was 28, and now has settled in as a nice, plus pitcher. His value isn’t in being the untouchable force of nature that Pedro Martinez was. It’s that, with him, the Boston rotation is becoming full. It’s solid from 1 through 4 with only joker being Clay Buchholz, in the back-end spot. I agree with you — I’d turn the kid over to the highest bidder in a heartbeat in exchange for some more offensive firepower and then look for a number five guy at a bargain rate.

Here’s where I’ll give Theo even more credit. He was reported to be interested in Rich Harden. Thank your lucky stars Harden signed with the Rangers for one year plus a mutual-option second year with a $1M buyout. He’ll make at least $7.5M for 2010 and could, conceivably, earn $20 for the full two years. He ain’t gonna make the 20. Harden’s got electrifying stuff but his control blows and he kills bullpens. I’ve got to think that Theo knew that even better than I do and his purported interest was nothing more than smoke being blown by Harden’s agent.

Instead, Epstein gets a good, solid, dependable righthander. I like the additition of Lackey, AJ, I just don’t like the amount being sunk into him. But, If you’ve got it to sink, you may as well sink it.

Speaking of sinking, the Cubs are still looking for someone to take Milton Bradley off their hands.

Big Mike: Wherein I Commence Solving The Red Sox’ Problems

AJ, get down on your knees and pray tonight to the god that I don’t believe in that Theo gets Miguel Cabrera.

The Tigers, apparently, have him on the block. I guess they’re shedding payroll which is a damned shame. They came back from that nearly historic, disastrous 2003 season to make the World Series three years later. They’ve got talent but don’t want to pay for it anymore. The fans, apparently, be damned.

Cabrera first came to my attention in ’03. I won’t be more specific other than to say I loathe the Florida Marlins (Dusty Baker, too.) The man can rake. If Theo sends a package led by Buchholz to Motown, you’ve got one of your two needed sluggers.

If it happens, what would you do? Move Youkilis to third and have Cabrera play first, or vice versa?

AJ: Matsuzaka May Re-emerge in 2010

Will Daisuke Matsuzaka return to top form for the Red Sox in 2010?

Dice-K was “the forgotten man” for the Red Sox in 2009.  A hidden asset.  He developed arm problems so early that he missed most of the season and made only a small contribution.  His absence hurt the team as the Sox were forced to use both Brad Penny and John Smoltz as starters in the first half – with only limited success.  Penny started well, but faded badly, and Smoltz, who the team was exceedingly patient with, never found his groove.

If Matsuzaka can return to top form, it would have a huge impact on the Red Sox, who, would then have a fourth first-rate starter to go with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buccholz.   Tim Wakefield is slated to return as the fifth starter.

I think Matsuzaka has a good chance to be a solid contributor in 2010.

What’s amazing is the extent to which expectations for Dice-K have diminished so much since his much-heralded introduction to the Red Sox in 2007.   He’s been through some real ups and downs, and, in Boston, where everything is dramatized and exaggerated by the Boston sports media.   It’s tough to play here – and more tougher if you’re Japanese and just getting familiar to the culture – and the routines both on and off the field.

For instance, even though Matsuzaka finished his 2008 season in Boston with an amazing  18 – 3 record, outsiders would be baffled at the constant criticism he took on talk radio and from the sports media.  You see, his record was misleading because Dice-K, for the large majority of starts in 2008, lasted only five innings or a tiny bit more.  He had a bad habit of throwing too many pitches in the early innings and his short outings took a toll on the bullpen.   He tended to “nibble” on the corners rather than challenge hitters with strikes when the count got near-full or full;  so, he walked many batters and struggled through many outings.  Yet, in the end, Dice-K pitched brilliantly out of jams.  His record pitching with the bases loaded is incredibly good – and, he won 18 games!

Recent signs suggest that Matsuzaka will at least put himself in the best possible position to succeed in 2010.  I read a Boston Globe report that Matsuzaka plans to return to the US (from Japan) earlier than usual (by late December) to begin his winter work-out program and that he’s considering working out at the Athletes Performance Institute in Phoenix, Arizona – which teammate Dustin Pedroia introduced him to.   Red Sox GM Theo Epstein has said he expects Matsuzaka to show up at 2010 Spring Training in top condition – unlike what happened last spring.

Over last summer, it became common knowledge that the Red Sox felt that Matsuzaka had showed up in less-than-adequate shape for 2009 Spring Training.  Many observers felt he also put extra strain on his arm by pitching in the World Baseball Classic, which also caused him to miss a chunk of spring training.  Regardless, Dice-K had to be totally shut down before starting conditioning from scratch and gradually developing new strength in his shoulder and arm.  Complicating things further, a disagreement between Dice-K and the team emerged over how frequenly he should throw during his recovery period.  At one point, pitching coach John Farrell and manager Terry Francona, each uncharacteristically, criticized Dice-K publicly, and, in rather scolding language.  But, calm was quickly  restored, and, by late August, Matsuzaka was ready to return to the club.  He returned looking thinner and was said to be in great shape.

No one knew what to expect in his first starts back, but, he looked sharp quite quickly.  In fact, his fastball – though not always with the high velocity he had in 2007 – had the old “zip” (movement) on it that he had in 2007 – and hitters were swinging and missing.  His slider looked good- as it usually does.  Dice-K has a number of other pitches that he throws unpredictably. 

Dice-K has pitched quite well for the Red Sox since they signed him before the 2007 season.  His record in 2007 was 15 – 12;  he then posted a stunning record of 18 – 3 in 2008 before finishing his limited 2009 with a 4 – 6 record.

When he arrived in 2007, there was much hope he’d be a real star like he was in Japan.  After only a few starts, however, it became clear that Matsuzaka faced new, different obstacles in the US.  First, it was learned later, he found he had to make a major adjustment to throwing the American baseball, which is a bit larger than the baseball in Japan.  I believe this has significantly influenced Dice-K’s entire experience in the US.  Sometimes, you notice he seems to suddenly throw balls way out of the strike zone sort of “out of the blue” and his control has rarely been consistently good for several consecutive games.   Often he walks four or five players during a start.

Plus, apparently, Dice-K has chosen to not throw his changeup that often in the US even though it was his BEST pitch in Japan!  The reason, again, is apparently related to the different “feel” he gets with the baseball here.

Though I found this fact about his changeup a major Sox news development, it has barely received any attention among Boston baseball writers.  Instead, ESPN’s Peter Gammons, in a column, wrote about Matsuzaka having to adjust which pitches he used and Gammons quoted Sox pitching coach John Farrell.  I remember Farrell, at the end of the 2008 season, saying he and Dice-K had agreed to remove more than one pitch from his repertoire in order to be more effective.

In addition, Matsuzaka had never faced the tough, experienced hitters he faced in the American League East.  Interestingly, in his first couple of starts against the Yankees in 2007, I remember he survived decently by using his breaking pitches.  The Yankees weren’t as accustomed to facing a pitcher who threw so many breaking pitches in fastball counts.  

Yet, the Red Sox have repeatedly urged Matsuzaka to be unafraid to use his fastball more often, and, whenever necessary, to put away hitters.  If Dice-K can retain the movement on his fastball he had at the end of the 2009 season, he could start 2010 in fine condition.   If his fastball works OK, Dice-K’s assortment of breaking pitches – slider, curve, cutter, occasional splitter, and occasional changeup – become much tougher to connect on.

I think the Red Sox expect good things from Matsuzaka in 2010 even though many fans have less patience with him.   2010 may be his last great chance to shine in Boston because:  a) If he fails, the Sox may grow tired after all they’ve invested in him and he may be traded;  b) His arm does have a lot of wear and tear on it from years in Japan, so he’s a bit past his prime; and, c) The Sox will have given him every chance to succeed, and, if he doesn’t they could still probably pull a trade because his salary is only $8 million.  (The Sox payment of $51 million just to win the rights to talk to Dice-K back when they signed him would not be a factor in a hypothetical trade).

My money is on Dice-K returning to win at least 15 games in 2010, if he’s healthy.