The cream of the Cubs farm system is a third baseman named Josh Vitters, the number three overall selection in the 2007 amateur draft. That June, he was acclaimed as the “most polished” high school hitter in the draft, whatever in the hell that means.
The Arizona Fall League commenced 2009 play Wednesday and Vitters went three for four with a double in the Phoenix Desert Dogs’ 4-2 victory over the Mesa Solar Sox. The North Side is abuzz, hoping the kid turns out to be the real thing. I — the voice of reason, natch — have to throw cold water on this line of thinking.
Vitters takes a walk about as often as Glenn Beck takes a moment to think about what he’s going to say. In 458 at bats this past season with the Single A Peoria Chiefs and the Double A Daytona Cubs, Vitters drew a grand total of 12 bases on balls. Twelve. Not even a baker’s goddamned dozen.
Your grandmother and your teething toddler know that minor league free-swingers are the worst bets to become capable big league hitters. If guys like Vitters can’t figure out a way to lay off those big, jug-handled curves that are 14 inches outside and those sliders in the dirt in places like Peoria, they’re going to get chewed up and spit out the second they hit the bigs.
The Cubs are notorious for bringing up kids who haven’t the faintest idea what the strike zone is all about. Going back to Shawon Dunston and through Corey Patterson and Felix Pie, Cubs phenoms have acted as though swinging at every pitch is a compulsory act. Dunston, for instance, in 1995 drew 10 walks in 503 plate appearances. And that was his 11th year in the majors!
The entire Cubs organization is notorious for having been slow on the uptake when it comes to the tenets of sabermetrics. The Bill James crowd has preached plate discipline and on-base percentage since the late 1970s. The Cubs occasionally acknowledge that it’s nice to take a walk. yet no one from the front office publicly extols the virtues of patience. Hitters who control the strike zone not only maximize the chance that they’ll see a fat pitch but they force the pitcher to throw, throw, throw — meaning the starter lasts a shorter time in the game and he’ll likely be more hittable by the middle innings. It all sounds so reasonable.
Yet the Cubs treat this philosophy as so much Zoroastrianism, arcane and quaint. The nadir of such thought came during the tenure of one Johnnie B. Baker as manager. Dusty never let an opportunity pass to tell the world how impatient he was with patient hitters. His assertion that walks clog the bases is now risibly legendary.
The 2008 Cubs led the National League in runs, something they hadn’t done in…, let’s see, hmm, oh yeah…, my goddamned lifetime! And I’m older than Gabby Hartnett, for chrissakes. The Cubs have led the league in runs precisely once in my 6000 years on this planet despite playing in a ballpark that for most of that time was the definitive hitters haven.
And how did the Cubs lead the league in runs in 2008? By walking a league-leading 636 times! Walks equal men on base. Having men on base means you have a greater chance of scoring runs. Simple, no?
This year, the Cubs went back to their impulsive ways. They stopped being selective at the plate and consequently dropped to 11th in the league in runs scored. Their limp-dick offense killed them this year, considering the pitchers posted a fine earned run average that ranked fourth in the league. And, by the way, the three teams that ranked ahead of them all benefitted from playing in pitchers’ parks.
Aaaarrrggghhh…, the Cubs make me so mad!
So the future rests in the hands of yet another kid who eschews patience and discipline at the plate. Hey, kids like Vitter think, I swung at everything in high school and hit them all a mile — may as well keep doing it! Only the big leagues ain’t high school.
Something the Cubs’ successive brain trusts have never figured out.
