AJ: Sox Hitting In Regression At Start of 2010

I don’t care what Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is preaching.  I say the Red Sox are a substantially weaker-hitting team and real underdogs in the American League East in 2010.  

I challenge any fan to compare the starting lineups of the New York Yankees or Tampa Bay Rays to the Red Sox, and tell me, honestly, you believe the Red Sox come even close.   You can add comparisons to the lineups of the Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia Phillies or several other quality teams and the Sox hitting falls well short.

Spring Training has just begun, and, already, Red Sox players have been asked a ton of questions about perceptions of their weaker offense.  Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy wrote last week that the questions were already irritating a few players.   Well, they better get used to it – - unless they defy the odds by hitting well from the outset.

In the off-season, the Red Sox lost Jason Bay, their best hitter last year, Mike Lowell, a good hitter, and Alex Gonzalez, a weak hitter.   They replaced these three with Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro.   While Beltre or Scutaro may supply limited “punch,” they’re not going to hit as well as Bay and Lowell did last year.    So, the team will have to find new ways to produce runs, and, do so with less home runs, probably.   They’ll have to run the bases better and advance runners better.

“I think we’re going to have a little bit of a different look this season,” hitting coach Dave Magadan told Sean McAdam in McAdam’s most recent column posted on CSNNE’s website.  “Every guy in the lineup is capable of 15 homers, if not 20 homers.   I think we’re going to have to some other things better this year.”

Magadan is right.  If the Red Sox can reinvent themselves a bit, and produce more runs with timely singles and sacrifice flies and rely less on the long ball, they might find a way to scratch just enough runs across for their superb pitching staff.  But, they have to do the “little things” right.  They can’t strand nearly as many baserunners as they did in 2009.

Not one of the Red Sox starters hit 30 home runs last year.   (That feels bizarre to acknowledge after years of Big Papi and Manny mashing the ball!)  So, it’ll have to be a team greater than the sum of its parts – a team with guys who can get the bat on the ball in key situations.

Another “new” aspect of 2010, in my view, is the large uncertainty surrounding the performance of certain players in the first half of the season, and, the likelihood that if they perform badly, the team will have an even more active trading deadline period than in recent years.  I refer most prominently to David Ortiz, who is in the last year of his contract.  If Big Papi struggles badly again in the first half, I think the Sox could either demote him to a part-time DH, or, if he’s a total disaster, even contemplate trading him or releasing him before the end of the year.  I don’t think he’ll be that bad, but, who knows?   Also, if the team’s overall hitting is bad until July, I think Theo will try very hard to get a top-notch slugger here – whether it’s Adrian Gonzalez or someone else.

The 2010 Red Sox just feel much more “fragile” than in recent years.  They’re without star hitters to “anchor” them.  If a guy like Youkilis or Victor Martinez goes out with an injury, the impact will be far greater on this squad.  For that matter, as I said in my last blog, if the starting pitching falters at all, the team won’t be able to “get by” long at all.  (If the aging Tim Wakefield doesn’t perform well in the early months, I don’t expect him to get many more chances in the second half after his bad endings to the past few years).

I hope the hitters I question - Cameron, Scutaro, Beltre, Ellsbury, Ortiz – all do better than I anticipate and the Sox compete all summer.   I think the pitching IS good enough to keep the Sox alive, but, right now, I don’t think the team is good enough to advance in the playoffs.

Late last week, Dan Shaughnessy of the Globe asked Kevin Youkilis about all the speculation regarding a potential dropoff in the Sox hitting in 2010.

“You guys also predicted the Cubs to win the World Series…,” Youkilis replied, in Shaughnessy’s column.

AJ: Sox Have Done OK, But I Expect More

If I were a Cub fan, I’d want to do things like the Red Sox too.  (Wow, after the decades of losing, I STILL am not used to the idea that the Sox are so  successful that they’d be a “role model.”)  

Big Mike, I understand your attitude toward Theo Epstein and the Red Sox moves so far in the off-season.  However, I feel compelled to stress to you that even with the actions taken by Theo so far, much of Red Sox nation is very concerned that the team has done too little so far and may fail to improve the team enough by 2010 spring training.   That’s why sports columnists like Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe ripped Theo for attempting to lower fans’ expecations with his remark about 2010 being a “bridge” year.

You’ve gotten me very curious what the hell the Cub fan base is like in 2009.  Does anyone expect anything at this point?  I know knowledgeable fans like you can cite more reasons to be skeptical, but, I just get the sense that no one in the Chicago media or any sizeable segment of fans are really expecting the Cubs to do much in this offseason, or, during next season, or, the season after that. 

My feeling is that even with the years suffered by thousands of Sox diehards, there has been something good about the dynamic connection between Red Sox fans and the team, and the people who run it.   When John Henry, Larry Lucchino and Tom Werner bought the team in 2002, you can bet your ass they felt the intensity of the fans’ interest – and, role – in the team’s evolution.   I’d argue that the fans helped create the undercurrents that motivated this new ownership group to build a winning organization – the organization that fired Grady Little even after the team had reached Game 7 of the 2003 ACLS.  The drive to win – and bring a title to New England and its fans – helped prompt the Sox to sign Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke before the 2004 season and, of course, each played critical roles in 2004.

So, my question for you, Big Mike, is:  which comes first, the fans and media expecting a lot more OR the team suddenly insisting on more?  Which is it — the chicken or the egg?

I’d argue that both are important and tend to come together.  So, who was  really paying close attention to Jim Hendry’s manuevering at the winter meetings?  Is anyone among Chicago’s sportswriters holding Hendry and the Cubs accountable?  (Maybe I’ll suggest Benny Jay for this job!) By the way, I agree with you that Hendry ought to strike a deal to move Milton Bradley SOON.   If the team has to eat even more of his contract, so be it!  Just get it done!  God, I can’t believe it, I’m even getting pissed at the Cubs!

So, back to the Red Sox, I’m, predictably, not quite as impressed as you with the team’s winter moves.  I’m not really unhappy, either, but, they have to get Jason Bay re-signed, and, do more to upgrade their offense. 

I’m telling you, Big Mike, the  Cubs and their fans have to start expecting a lot more, or, they might as well put that Disney World sign up for life at Wrigley Field.

AJ: The Red Sox Will Miss Mike Lowell

It appears Red Sox veteran third-baseman Mike Lowell is headed to the Texas Rangers in a trade, pending the review of medical and other final details.    The Sox have agreed to pay approximately $9 million of the $12 million Lowell is owed in 2010, the last year of his contract while they’ll receive Rangers’ minor-league catcher Max Ramirez back. 

It’s an odd, surprising deal because Lowell is in the last year of his contract, and, he’s likely to be in better shape in 2010 than 2009, when, despite being limited to 119 games, he was still able to bat .290 and knock in 75 RBIs.   It’s seems unlikely – whoever his replacement is – that he’ll will hit much better than Lowell.  The question will be whether an improvement in fielding and baserunning from a new 3rd baseman is worth eating most of Lowell’s contract.

Sox GM Theo Epstein has concluded that it IS worth doing that NOW and one gets a sense he wants to start fresh with a new infield in 2010.  Theo has emphasized the need to improve the team’s defense.  (I think he obsesses about this a bit, while being too casual about the team’s weak, limited hitting).  While Lowell has voiced optimism about feeling stronger in 2010 as he continues recovering from a hiip injury, the Red Sox, apparently, doubt he can improve sufficiently in fielding.  Lowell, long a terrific fielder, lacked his old range at 3rd during the 2009 season.

The Sox’ eagerness to part ways with Lowell – especially by absorbing such a huge part of his salary – surprised some.  (The Sox will pay Lowell $9 million for 2010 on top of already paying departed shortstop Julio Lugo, for his 2010 salary while he continues with the St. Louis Cardinals).   Plus, Max Ramirez, while he has potential, is not even an established big league player.

The Sox reportedly are very interested in signing Seattle Mariners’ 3rd-baseman Adrian Beltre, a Gold Glove-calibre fielder.  It’s unclear if they can reach a deal with Beltre, who already declined an arbitration offer from Seattle, which would’ve likely paid him close to his 2009 $12 million salary. If not, the Sox can always try to find a first-baseman and move Kevin Youkilis over to 3rd base.    

Yet, regardless of how the baseball aspects evolve, Lowell’s exit will leave a huge void in the Red Sox clubhouse.  Lowell was one of the most popular players on the team.  He’s been universally regarded as a classy, “good guy” on this team.  One of its leaders.  He’s always done what he could to help the team win.  Take the 2009 season, for example:  Lowell played with the effects of his hip injury and had to run the bases so slowly that it was painful to watch sometimes.  He always wanted to start and disliked missing games when he had to “rotate” in and out of the lineup after Victor Martinez’ arrival.

Lowell’s contributions to the Red Sox fantastic 2007 season will always be remembered.  Not only did he help get them there (121 RBIs, .324 average, 21 HRs, 191 hits) but, he was the MVP of the World Series.  Lowell became a solid, clutch hitter over his time with the Sox.

What moves will the Sox make now?

The Sox are still pursuing Jason Bay, and, it appears they’re competing with only one team – the New York Mets, who just offered Bay a four-year contract for a total of $65 million.  The Red Sox had offered Bay four years at $60 million.  The key is whether the Mets may be willing to offer Bay a 5th year.  If they do, the Sox will probably bow out of the competition.

If that  happens, they might pursue Matt Holliday, but, I now think it’s just as possible, if not more likely, that they’d find another player to play left-field.  I just don’t think the Sox will pay Holliday what his agent, Scott Boras, wants him to get.  Boras, at the winter meetings, made a laughable attempt to compare Holliday to Mark Teixeira, another of his clients, who got  a megadeal last winter.

The Red Sox will likely make a few more moves.  There will be some non-tendered players who become available in the next few days.  Right now, however, the Sox do not appear poised to make any blockbuster deals.  It seems Theo Epstein believes if they can get left-field set, their new 3rd baseman and shortstop – combined with having catcher Victor Martinez around all year – will do the trick.  We shall shee.

Meanwhile, there has been considerable talk among Boston sports pundits about Theo’s attempts to manage expectations for 2010.  Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy shared some of my outlook in a column yesterday about Theo trying to sell his “bridge” idea.  http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2009/12/10/fans_shouldnt_buy_red_sox_bridge/?p1=Well_MostPop_Emailed4