Big Mike, I agree the Red Sox view Jonathan Papelbon’s time as The Closer is limited because of his eligibility for free agency after the 2011 season. I disagree with you on the odds for him to be traded before 2010. I think the Sox would prefer to get one more excellent year out of Papelbon in 2010. Then, before or during 2011, or, immediately after 2011, I think they’ll part ways with Pap. And, after 2010 – with more wear and tear on Pap’s arm, they might find that a good time to deal him. How his arm holds up is key..
First, Papelbon, despite a “bumpier” ride to another great season in 2009 — except for hit disastrous blown save in the playoffs — finished very strong in the last six weeks of the season, and, overall, posted one of the better records for closers in baseball. He spent part of the season trying to adjust to a new pitching motion, and, I think that reduced his effectiveness at times. Second, and this is a major factor, there is not another pitcher ready to replace Papelbon. Daniel Bard, by all appearances, will eventually replace Papelbon, but, Bard, who throws at 100 mph, showed, toward the end of the season, he still needed to work on his pitching - such as improving his fastball location to prevent late-inning home runs. He needs more experience, but, signs suggest that by the end of 2010 as the team’s “8th inning” guy again, Bard, by then, might be ready to take over for Papelbon.
In my previous blog, I mentioned the Sox, however, might think about moving Papelbon before 2010 – simply because he seemed, to me, one of the only players who they could even think about moving. I don’t think the Sox would trade Papelbon before 2010 unless circumstances are evolving very unfavorably for them — i.e. If they lose Jason Bay to free agency, then, for whatever reasons, they cannot sign either Adrian Gonazalez or Matt Holliday, both sluggers, to replace Bay in the outfield. Then, perhaps Theo Epstein and Sox executives might feel much more pressure to make some splash before Spring Training.
By the way, back in early 2003, with Theo Epstein his first year as GM, the Sox tried a “closer by committee” approach – which turned out to be a diaster. (Before 2004, they got Keith Foulke as their closer and he played a critical role in the team winning the World Series) I know Bill James was among a group consulted in those early days of designing a bullpen, but James later denied advocating for a “closer by committee.” I think James supported the notion that there could be benefits of a closer pitching earlier than the ninth inning — if and when key situations arose.
Personally, I hated that “Closer by Committee” idea. Wathching Papelbon embrace his role and benefit from the rituals and routine has helped convince me of that. Mariono Rivera offers compelling signs of benefits to The Closer tradition too.
Big Mike, your discussion of the Red Sox reminded me, again, of the strange, new dilemmas they might face in 2010. My guess is that the Sox position is: If they cannot sign Jason Bay, they simply MUST sign Adrian Gonzalez, or, perhaps, even Matt Holliday. Otherwise, the team would have an embarrassing, near-unprecedented lack of power in their hitting lineup, and, a lack of “star power.” It’d be a rather boring lineup – like in 2009 – of good, hardworking players, who are fairly low-key, free of controversy and a bit bland, particularly in the dog days of summer as they’re going down quietly to young pitchers on dry days of August.
As I said, unless Theo Epstein and Sox owership get very creative and pull some rabbits out of their hats, 2010 may look a lot like 2009. And they might feel an incentive to keep Papelbon, one of their only exciting “stud” players left, for one more season. Otherwise, their “excitement gap” will be disturbingly high. Will fans keep flocking to Fenway? (Yes)
