AJ: Baseball Writers Are Like Sheep

If ”pack journalism” is a generic term used to describe news reporters, I’d say it applies more sweepingly to baseball writers.  Is there a less original group of journalists out there? 

Baseball writers always seem to be all stressing the same themes at the same time.  Making the same predictions.  Praising the same players, and, “buying” the same lines from GMs, managers or players.   They behave like sheep.

 The writers choose to take “the party line” most of the time.  So, if several leading baseball writers pick one team as “the big favorite” to win it all, most join the chorus without raising dissenting questions.   If the elite baseball writers are dumping on A-Rod, other writers seem to join in.  One minute, in 2008, they were all complaining about Manny Ramirez’ attitude.  The next minute, they were all praising his performance in Los Angeles when he ignited the Dodgers.

I raise this because the “conventional wisdom” – with the 2010 season just days away – is that the Boston Red Sox will be one of the best teams in baseball and compete for a championship.  Some are even picking the Sox to win it all.

In other years, I’ve understood some optimistic predictions about the Red Sox, but, this time, I’m puzzled.   I am not predicting a World Series title for the Sox.   I think the only way the Sox could seriously contend is by making a huge,  mid-season acquisition like Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres.

The Red Sox, right now, lack the hitting necessary to win it all…..but, because the “conventional wisdom” is that they’ll be as good as almost any other team, the facts have, typically, been downplayed by the “pack” of baseball writers.

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, has spent months gushing about the improved “run prevention” the Sox will have in 2010 with better defense brought by newcomers Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro and Mike Cameron.   Many baseball writers, while raising questions about the Sox hitting, have basically “bought” – at least to some extent – Theo’s argument.   This is unsurprising;  after all, because the “conventional wisdom” is that Theo is one of the best GMs in baseball.

Except, Mr. Whiz Kid ( Theo) makes mistakes, on occasion, just like every other GM.  In fact, it was only a year ago that baseball writers – like sheep – were heaping praise on Theo for being so smart by acquiring veteran pitchers Brad Penny and John Smoltz to join the Sox 2009 pitching staff.  How wise Theo was to get these pitchers for so little money in short-term deals, the writers crowed.   He had creatively found a way to counter the Yanks’ signing stud hitter Mark Teixeira. 

Then, Penny and Smoltz didn’t do that well, especially Smoltz, and I don’t recall any baseball writers discussing how Theo’s commitment to these two guys damaged the Sox season.  In fact, after a bit of initial success, Penny’s outings deteriorated and Smoltz pitched poorly the entire time.   For one stretch, the Sox kept putting Smoltz out there and he kept losing badly and looking horribly on the mound, but, it seemed it was more important to the organization to give Smoltz a chance than the 2009 team.  Meanwhile, Clay Buchholz didn’t get called up to start until after the All-Star break partly because these two veteran pitchers were in the rotation.

Theo Epstein was responsible for Penny and Smoltz, but, he escaped virtually any criticism for the team using them so much.  The Sox somehow made the playoffs by beating up on bad teams before getting swept by the Angels.  Mark Teixeira, meanwhile, (the guy the Red Sox let get away) helped lead the Yankees to a World Series victory.

Likewise, Theo was widely praised, when he acquired veteran closer Eric Gagne at the trading deadline in 2007.  Gagne, a former Cy Young winner coming back from injuries, was viewed as a guy who could be a terrific set-up guy before closer Jonathan Papelbon came in.  As it turned out, Gagne was a total bust.  He was so terrible that he barely pitched in the playoffs as the Sox went on to win the World Series.  

I fully accept that ups and downs come with any GM’s guesswork.  What gets on my nerves is how baseball writers seem predisposed to spew whatever the conventional line is at a given moment in a given season. 

At the moment, I think baseball writers want the Red Sox- Yankees rivalry to continue, and for the Sox to succeed because, let’s face it:  When the Red Sox are in the race, baseball is more interesting for millions of fans in Red Sox Nation — meaning all over the country. 

But, I see some national and local baseball writers who are glossing over the glaring weaknesses in the Sox hitting lineup.  Jason Stark of ESPN just wrote a piece arguing the Red Sox hitting will be better than some think, but, his arguments seemed weak.  He quoted David Ortiz and hitting coach Dave Magadan a lot about how they feel upbeat  and mentioned the Sox stat for “runs scored” in 2009.  Yet, the Sox scored a big chunk of their runs in 2009 against bad teams like the Orioles while faring poorly against good pitching.

 I think Theo Epstein spoke more of the truth when, he made his infamous, off-the-cuff remark this past winter that 2010 would be a “bridge” year for the Red Sox.   A transition year when certain veteran players’ contracts would end and several of the youngest, hottest prospects in the Sox farm system would get closer to the “Show.”

Hey, I hope the baseball “pack” turns out to be more right than me about the Red Sox fortunes in 2010.   But, I will always wish that baseball writers didn’t all fall into the herd so much.

AJ: Sox Hitting In Regression At Start of 2010

I don’t care what Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is preaching.  I say the Red Sox are a substantially weaker-hitting team and real underdogs in the American League East in 2010.  

I challenge any fan to compare the starting lineups of the New York Yankees or Tampa Bay Rays to the Red Sox, and tell me, honestly, you believe the Red Sox come even close.   You can add comparisons to the lineups of the Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia Phillies or several other quality teams and the Sox hitting falls well short.

Spring Training has just begun, and, already, Red Sox players have been asked a ton of questions about perceptions of their weaker offense.  Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy wrote last week that the questions were already irritating a few players.   Well, they better get used to it – - unless they defy the odds by hitting well from the outset.

In the off-season, the Red Sox lost Jason Bay, their best hitter last year, Mike Lowell, a good hitter, and Alex Gonzalez, a weak hitter.   They replaced these three with Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro.   While Beltre or Scutaro may supply limited “punch,” they’re not going to hit as well as Bay and Lowell did last year.    So, the team will have to find new ways to produce runs, and, do so with less home runs, probably.   They’ll have to run the bases better and advance runners better.

“I think we’re going to have a little bit of a different look this season,” hitting coach Dave Magadan told Sean McAdam in McAdam’s most recent column posted on CSNNE’s website.  “Every guy in the lineup is capable of 15 homers, if not 20 homers.   I think we’re going to have to some other things better this year.”

Magadan is right.  If the Red Sox can reinvent themselves a bit, and produce more runs with timely singles and sacrifice flies and rely less on the long ball, they might find a way to scratch just enough runs across for their superb pitching staff.  But, they have to do the “little things” right.  They can’t strand nearly as many baserunners as they did in 2009.

Not one of the Red Sox starters hit 30 home runs last year.   (That feels bizarre to acknowledge after years of Big Papi and Manny mashing the ball!)  So, it’ll have to be a team greater than the sum of its parts – a team with guys who can get the bat on the ball in key situations.

Another “new” aspect of 2010, in my view, is the large uncertainty surrounding the performance of certain players in the first half of the season, and, the likelihood that if they perform badly, the team will have an even more active trading deadline period than in recent years.  I refer most prominently to David Ortiz, who is in the last year of his contract.  If Big Papi struggles badly again in the first half, I think the Sox could either demote him to a part-time DH, or, if he’s a total disaster, even contemplate trading him or releasing him before the end of the year.  I don’t think he’ll be that bad, but, who knows?   Also, if the team’s overall hitting is bad until July, I think Theo will try very hard to get a top-notch slugger here – whether it’s Adrian Gonzalez or someone else.

The 2010 Red Sox just feel much more “fragile” than in recent years.  They’re without star hitters to “anchor” them.  If a guy like Youkilis or Victor Martinez goes out with an injury, the impact will be far greater on this squad.  For that matter, as I said in my last blog, if the starting pitching falters at all, the team won’t be able to “get by” long at all.  (If the aging Tim Wakefield doesn’t perform well in the early months, I don’t expect him to get many more chances in the second half after his bad endings to the past few years).

I hope the hitters I question - Cameron, Scutaro, Beltre, Ellsbury, Ortiz – all do better than I anticipate and the Sox compete all summer.   I think the pitching IS good enough to keep the Sox alive, but, right now, I don’t think the team is good enough to advance in the playoffs.

Late last week, Dan Shaughnessy of the Globe asked Kevin Youkilis about all the speculation regarding a potential dropoff in the Sox hitting in 2010.

“You guys also predicted the Cubs to win the World Series…,” Youkilis replied, in Shaughnessy’s column.