Big Mike: My Heart Bleeds For You, AJ

Poor AJ. His boys won 95 games in 2009. Apparently they were the wrong kind of wins. Or something.

I would have sawed off my right pinkie for 95 wins (not my left pinkie, though, since I’m trying to learn how to play the guitar.)

Are your fears for the Flaming Hose really warranted? Ortiz’s RBI were “quiet”? Bay “put up terrific numbers but… he’s a bit overrated”? Papelbon “gave up walks or hits and often had difficulty finishing batters off”? Ellsbury “can be pitched to by better pitchers”? Sheesh!

Whaddya want 105 wins?

I suppose the answer yes. Who wouldn’t want 105 wins? But no one — repeat, no one — can construct a team with the expectation that they’ll win 105. Not even the colossus that occupies new Yankee Stadium won 105 (of course, they did knock off 103 opponents but let’s not quibble.)

Have the Red Sox and their fans become — dare I say it — too demanding? It seems a short half decade ago, il Nazione del Calzini Rossi would have been thrilled to string up 95 fascisti. Now, 95 wins — bah! A bag of shells.

Were I the majordomo of the Sox, I wouldn’t worry too much about Papelbon’s walks or hits (his WHIP stood at a fine 1.15.) If Bay’s putting up terrific numbers, I’d say, Keep it up, Jason my boy. As for Ellsbury’s problems with better pitchers? Um, I’d guess the reason those guys are “better pitchers” is because they get most guys out, period.

I would fret a little about David Ortiz. He’s now 34 years old and weighs 230 pounds — at least that’s what the Red Sox web site claims. His bathroom scale might dissent. His best years are like a big ass — behind him. Then again, most AL teams would drool over the prospect of their DHs putting up mediocre Ortiz numbers. The Boston club really ain’t got much to worry about does it?

Sometimes fans and even GMs can overreact. Take last off-season. After the Cubs had led the National League with 97 wins, they went out and jumped in front of that speeding bus from LA. Fans boo-hooed as if the Cubs had gone sub-.500. Lou Piniella suggested that maybe the team needed a left handed bat to counteract teams loading up with righthanders against them — as the Dodgers did. Hungry Jim Hendry promptly turned over 40 percent of his roster, mainly in an effort to afford the $30M/3-year deal he bestowed upon Milton Bradley.

Pardon me while I have a seizure. Gurgle, gulp, ack-ack-ack. The memory of the Bradley signing is now a lesion in my brain that occasionally causes electrical disturbances among my remaining several hundred neurons. Ah — all better now.

Hendry dumped Mark DeRosa, Kerry Wood and Jason Marquis, all in an effort to squeeze Gameboard into the budget. The 2009 team could have used a nice fifth starter like Marquis (who, by the way, went to the all-star game.) They would have benefitted greatly from DeRosa’s 23 home runs, especially in Aramis Ramirez’s absence. Wood? Well, he stunk the joint up with the Tribe but he still was better than the execrable Kevin Gregg.

Be careful what you wish for, AJ. What’s Theo Epstein to do? Look for a centerfielder? Yeah, you could do better than young Jacoby. You could grab Carlos Beltran from the Mets and hope he thrives in Fenway. But at what cost?

Should Theo let Bay or Drew walk? Whaddya gonna do then? Play Joey Gathright and Rocco Baldelli?

In terms of planning, a good GM walks the tightrope. He (or she — Kim Ng, I hear, is in the running for the Padres job) can’t rely on an unchanging roster year after year. He also can’t swap his assets like so many baseball cards.

The Big Mike Philosophy of Building a Baseball Team, taught at the better universities around the country, holds that the GM should build his team with an aim to win 90 games. If your team is a consistent 90-game-winner, you’ll be battling for the division title every single year. And while the team may occasionally dip to 84-78, it’ll just as often rise to 96-66. That’s definite Champagne territory.

Now you may say 96 wins is fine for the Minnesota Twins or the Colorado Rockies but the Red Sox share a division with the Yankees. Okay. Let the Yanks spend $200M every year and win the East. It’s no dishonor to sneak into the playoffs via the Wild Card. In fact, the Red Sox of 2004 rode that ticket to their first World Series win in 10,000 years (that ancient triumph over the hated Jericho Palms!)

Just because New York assembled an all-star team and danced to the division title doesn’t mean Theo (and you) should panic. Theo (and you) should start planning for a future without Big Papi but the current lineup built around Pedroia, Bay, Youkilis and Martinez (assuming everybody’s re-signed) is scarier than a Glenn Beck commentary.

Boston is a lock to win at least 90 in 2010. Even if David Ortiz’s bat continues to soften and Josh Beckett’s back continues to throb, the Red Sox, along with the Yankees and Angels, will be the cream of the league. You worry too much.

Me? I’ve got Bradley in right field, Carlos Zambrano on the mound, and a century-plus of losing on my mind. I worry.

AJ: 2009 Red Sox Were Not What They Appeared

The 2009 Red Sox’ best feat was somehow winning 95 games in the AL East.  That’s not easy to do in the toughest division in baseball.  Yet, even the total of 95 was misleading.

First, the Red Sox racked up victories by going 16 -2 against the pitiful Baltimore Orioles, for example, but, didn’t fare as well against most opposing teams with winning records.  For instance, the Sox went 2-7 vs. the Texas Rangers;  4-5 vs. the Los Angeles Angels; and, 2-4 vs. the Seattle Mariners.  Even the Sox’ 9-9 record in games vs. the NY Yankees is distorted because the Sox went 8-0 vs. the Yanks during the first half(when A-Rod was often not in the lineup) but, the Yanks won 9 of the last 10 games vs. the Sox, and, looked dominant in doing so.

Second, the Sox record at home was 56-25, while, on the road, it was 39-42.  Most teams with championship potential don’t have a losing record on the road.

Third, the Sox hitting was very over-rated because, while they could rip mediocre pitching, they struggled BADLY against good pitchers.  By season’s end, observers were saying:  “This is a lineup that can be pitched to.”  Except for Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez, the Sox are fastball hitters who can’t hit breaking pitches.

If I have to summarize, it’s that the Sox have a tremendous VOID in their lineup once filled by David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, who led them to the 2004 and 2007 World Series titles.  Big Papi and Manny provided one of the most powerful, 1-2 punches in baseball history.  Yeah, I’d put them on a short list with Gehrig/Ruth and six or eight other duos.  Now, Ramirez is gone and Ortiz is a shell of his old self.  No one has replaced them.

So, image and reality clashed in many ways with the 2009 Red Sox.  Consider these specific examples:

1)  David Ortiz – Big Papi, after starting off with an unbelievably bad, two-month slump that had many – including me – thinking he was “done,” came back and ended with 28 HRs and 99 RBIs.  But, the stats are very misleading because, as Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe put it, they were about the “quietest” 99 RBIs imaginable and many were against the worst teams.  In big moments, against the good teams,  Ortiz usually failed to hit.

2)  Jason Bay – Bay put up terrific numbers (36 HRs, 119 RBIs) but, I think he’s a bit over-rated.  Why? He can’t hit breaking stuff.  Bay is a fantastic “mistake” hitter who belts fastballs, but, on many occasions, when facing quality pitching, Bay went down swinging.  (He was also streaky, hot at the start, a long slump, then, hot at the end). 

3)  Jonathan Papelbon - Papelbon is still an excellent closer, but, he had a much tougher time in 2009 than people have acknowledged.  In many of his saves, he gave up walks or hits and often had real difficulty finishing hitters off.  Batters can make contact vs. Papelbon much more easily than in the past, even when he’s throwing at 96 mph.  So, when he blew the save in Game 3 of the ALDS, I was not shocked.  I had watched him battle with erratic control all season.  He apparently changed his pitching motion to protect his arm, but, in any event, he’s not in the same place he was in 2007.  He also badly needs a new pitch to complement his fastball.

4) Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis – Viewed as the team’s core in 2008, they both had solid years, but dropped in performance, particularly hitting with men on base, compared to 2008.

5)  Jacoby Ellsbury -  He’s improving and had a good year, but, he’s still learning how to hit.  He, like others, can be pitched to by better pitchers.

6)  Josh Beckett – His fading performance in the past two months – into the playoffs – has still not been explained.  Suddenly, he lost his fastball command and couldn’t throw his curve consistently, but, after being treated for back spasms, the team denied Beckett had physical problems.  I think he had a tired arm the whole time.  It’s the second year in a row that Beckett ”broke down” season’s end and the team should handle him better. 

7)  JD Drew – Drew didn’t provide any boost in 09;  he never does. Despite his high OPS, Drew is a bust who’s not worth close to his $13 million a year salary.  I have so much to say about Drew that I’ll dedicate another blog to it.