AJ: Theo Needs to Snap Out of Denial

Even though it’s early, I hope Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is busy brainstorming about changes rather than lingering in denial.  

I say “denial” because, yesterday, I read Epstein’s comments that the team simply has to play better baseball.  “What we can do is look inward, work our (rears) off, and return to the principles that have made us a solid organization, and have made these players who they are,” Epstein told the April 21st Boston Globe.  Epstein’s remarks implied the Sox have sufficient talent, and, if they, simply, start playing up to that talent, things will improve.

Well, I hate to say it, Theo, but, I don’t think your team has as much talent as you do, and, I’m not alone.  

The Red Sox hitting stinks so far.  They’ve had to struggle to win their past two games against the mediocre Texas Rangers after being swept by the Tampa Bay Rays.  Their lineup is filled with one mediocre hitter after another.  A recent caller to a radio show put it this way:  “We have (only) three hitters – three hitters!  He named Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez as the only good batters.  The rest are easy to pitch to, he said.

My view is close to that caller’s,  but, not quite as extreme.  Pedroia, Youkilis and Martinez do stand out because they can make contact in any count while most others in the lineup have been easy outs vs. half-decent pitching.   Nevertheless, what Theo Epstein won’t admit is that you can’t win a championship – or, for that matter, make the playoffs – when the newcomers to an already-weak-hitting lineup are Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron.   Not with David Ortiz fading fast, the departure of Jason Bay and benching (& planned trade of) Mike Lowell.  

You need a couple of stud hitters to compete in the AL East – guys like the Yanks’  Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez or the Rays’ Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria.   But, even though the Sox’ weak hitting led to the Angels sweeping them in the 2009 playoffs, Theo’s “answer” in the off-season was to sign pitcher John Lackey and the other newcomers, who he said would bolster the team’s “run prevention.”  I was among many who ripped that game plan, and said the Sox would lack hitting.

So, what will Theo and the Sox brass do now?  Will they acknowledge the team’s deficits, own up to their mistakes and start on a new path?  Or, will they stay stubborn and try to win with a depleted lineup while denying it’s bad all summer?

It’s interesting because Epstein and company have experienced only success since arriving about eight years ago.   They had a huge advantage of inheriting a team with Manny Ramirez and Pedro Martinez and Johnny Damon – and, with Theo’s signing of Ortiz, a platooning player for the Minnesota Twins in 2002,  turned into an unexpected, smash success that helped bring two World Series titles to Boston.  

Now, suddenly, Epstein must make very tough calls in the middle of this season — probably within weeks.  The first will be what to do with Ortiz, who is in the last year of his $13 million contract.  If Big Papi continues to not hit, it seems Epstein and manager Terry Francona will have to play him less and less until they’re forced to release him and eat his contract, or, to trade him somewhere – and, still eat his contract.   I say this because I cannot imagine Ortiz sitting on the bench happily for the rest of the year.

Next, Epstein has to decide if and how to commit to Victor Martinez beyond this year, when his contract expires.  Martinez has failed badly at throwing out (stealing) baserunners so far, and,  indications suggest he might not radically improve in this area.  If so, he could move to first base, but, then Youkilis would have to play third, and Adrian Beltre, one of his recruits, is there now.     

Epstein will have to decide what deal, if any, to make at the trading deadline.  Should the team give away players – like perhaps pitcher Clay Buchholz – to get a hitter like Adrian Gonzalez, or, perhaps concede the 2010 season and wait until the off-season to stock up on bats?

These are tough choices, especially in Boston, where fans in the past 25 years or so, have always expected at least a competitive team.  Right now, I think the current team will finish behind the Yankees and Rays and perhaps even slip to .500 status, but, its starting pitching seems good enough to prevent a losing record. 

Notice how gloomy I’m sounding after only three weeks?  Well, you need hitting to win, but the signs have been even worse!  Josh Beckett, who the Sox just signed to a new, four-year deal, has been quite unimpressive so far.  He’s 1-0 with 3 no-decisions and a 5.26 ERA, but, what’s more troubling is that he’s throwing with less velocity than the past few years.  (Beckett relies heavily on his fastball).  This has been unmentioned by Boston baseball writers so far, but, most of Beckett’s fastballs have been clocked at 93 mph – or a bit lower – rather than 96 mph – a common speed for Beckett in the past.  He’s continued his bad habit from late in 2009 of leaving fastballs over the plate, and, hitters are ready to smack them.   While Jon Lester has struggled in all three starts, I cannot believe he won’t find his stuff and be OK.  If not, the Sox record may plummet toward the Orioles’ results.

Another cause of concern beneath the radar?  Jonathan Papelbon.  While Papelbon has improved in his past two outings and increased his velocity a bit, his heater is lacking “giddy-up” — just as he lacked movement in the first part of 2009.   Last season, it took Papelbon a few months to find that “late life” in his fastball.  The difference now is that opposing hitters are much more ready to pounce on his heater.  Papelbon’s control has been so-so, as he often has had to throw repeated fastballs (fouled off) to put a hitter away rather than blowing the first few by someone — as he used to a few years ago.

Daniel Bard, the top-ranked setup pitcher now, has been fairly good, but, in only his second year, he still is learning, and, sometimes his fastballs catch too much of the plate, and, are hit hard.  Bard’s breaking stuff has improved, however.   The rest of the bullpen is a questionmark. 

So, how will Epstein and the Sox take the lemons and make lemonade somehow?  It’ll be interesting.  The odds appear stacked against this 2010 edition.

“We haven’t really done anything well, to be honest with you,” Epstein told yesterday’s Boston Globe.  “We’re not pitching, we’re not hitting, we’re not playing good defense. we’re not running the bases well.  So take your pick.”

OK, Theo.  I’ll add one more category:   The Red Sox GM has done a poor job assessing the talent on this 2010 team.    I hope he acquires more talent.

AJ: Sox Should Consider Hermida For DH Duty

I just watched Jeremy Hermida belt a clutch, bases-loaded double against the Minnesota Twins to add to a Sox lead, and, it was one of the few, exciting hitting highlights of this young season.   Though the Sox had been clinging to a 3-2 lead, Hermida’s hit knocked in three runs, making it 6-2 – and, with this 2010 edition of the Sox, a one-run lead feels incredibly fragile.

The Red Sox desparately need more hitting.  (I know the season is only a week and a half old, but, I feel compelled to say: “…I told you so”)  It’s bad enough that they have no bona fide power hitter, but, their designated hitter, David Ortiz, is off to another horrible start and looks like he’s nearing the end of his playing days in Boston.   The Sox weaker hitting has meant, often, that their pitching has to be excellent for them to win.

Well, after today’s game vs. Minnesota, the Sox are 0-4 in games when they scored four runs or less and 4-0 in games when they scored more than four.   This has not surprised me;  in fact, its predictability has almost made it more painful.   The Red Sox have to scrape and claw for every run.  They look un-threatening.  If they don’t make changes, I see them struggling all year.

But…..there are a few signs of daylight.  One is Hermida, who has been hot at the plate.  Hermida, a newly-acquired, reserve outfielder, has gotten more at-bats as a fill-in than expected.  What’s struck me is how good Hermida looks at the plate.  He’s got a natural, smooth swing.  He goes with the pitch, hitting it to all fields.  He seems equipped to hit for contact and power. 

Hermida has looked a lot better than Ortiz.  I love Big Papi, but, unfortunately, he looks like he did last spring – displaying reduced skills, particularly slower bat speed.  Plus, he just looks tentative up there, often committing to a swing or “take” a split second late.  A few years ago, Papi could make contact with ease - often fouling off pitches with two strikes.   I hope Big Papi proves everyone wrong, but the odds look overwhelmingly tough now.

I never expected to view Hermida as even a mere possibility to back up Ortiz, but, the circumstances facing the Sox now help make the case.  First, I’d agree with other fans that Mike Lowell could be a part-time DH.  But, now, Lowell is riding the bench because the Sox have been unable to trade him.  After the Sox signed third-baseman Adrian Beltre, they had every expectation of trading Lowell by the end of spring training, but Lowell had to overcome injuries, and, got very limited time to play and show other teams what he could do.  Even with Lowell feeling better, the Sox seem to have un-stated reasons for not wanting to play Lowell.  So, who else could DH?  Not reserve player Billy Hall.  Not Jason Varitek.  Not Jed Lowrie, who’s recovering from mono right now.

So, if Ortiz keeps struggling a few more weeks, why not plug in Hermida as DH?   Right now, Hermida is one of the hottest hitters on the team.  He needs to play more – not less.

One of the Red Sox’ few weaknesses in recent years has been to allow under-performing players to stay in the starting lineup too long.  Witness John Smoltz last year; Eric Gagne in 2007; Julio Lugo for long stretches the past two years; Varitek during portions of the past two years, and others.   

In the meantime, could Jeremy Hermida be the real deal, or, will I look back on this blog and feel foolish?

AJ: Observations After Red Sox Opener

For one game, at least, the Red Sox hitters got the job done! 

The Sox won a game against C.C. Sabathia and the New York Yankees on a night when Sox starter, Josh Beckett, pitched poorly.   These sort of events occur rarely, so, I try to savor them when they do.

All the talk about the Sox’ pitching and “run prevention” seemed, for the most part, irrelevant.   That’s the beauty of the season beginning:  We throw out all the speculation and predictions and see what teams have to offer.

The Red Sox newcomers – Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron – all contributed to the win.  This seemed a particularly fortunate twist because, early success can really help new players in Boston, not the easiest place to get acclimated in.  Beltre got a big, clutch hit to tie the game 5-5.  Scutaro and Cameron each got two hits.  All three fielded fine, particularly Cameron, who made a few good catches in center.

So, what am I thinking as the Sox and Yanks prepare for Game Two tonight?

First, I’m in a tiny minority who were not pleased by yesterday’s news that the Sox signed Becket to a new, four-year contract for $68 million.  I’ve said consistently I felt the Red Sox should wait on signing Beckett – preferably until a majority of this season was over and he could have proven himself some more.  

I remain very concerned about Beckett.  I just think his arm isn’t in the shape it was.  I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he has been injured at the end of the past two seasons and seemed to be fatigued.  I know it sounds lame to say this now, but, I was not surprised Beckett was so mediocre vs the Yankees on Sunday night.  I don’t get surprised by Beckett’s inconsistency anymore.   Beckett relies so heavily on fastball location that when he doesn’t have his location sharp and/or his curve working – especially against superb fastball hitters like the Yankees – he looks very average very quickly.  My guess is that Beckett will pitch half-decently this year.  I’ll be watching most closely in September and October, however.   If he has zip on his heater then, he’ll prove me wrong.

Second, I hope Big Papi starts hitting right away because I fear that if he doesn’t, the pressure in this crazy sports town will make it harder.   I cannot believe how much anxious, negative chatter I’ve heard on sports talk radio in Boston about whether David Ortiz can hit this year.  Ortiz didn’t get a hit on Opening Night, but there is no context on talk radio.  It’s as if it’s now the same as in early June last year – after Ortiz had slumped for two months.  Sports media and fans seem predisposed to give Ortiz very little slack this season.  If he slumps, many are saying, the Sox will have to remove him from the DH slot or put Mike Lowell in there.  Lowell is likely to be traded soon, but, at the moment, he’s on the Sox bench.

There was one moment Monday night when Ortiz had a hitter’s count (3 -1, I think) vs. Sabathia, and, sure enough, he got a fastball down the middle, and he fouled it off.  He swung a second late – something he did for most of the 2009 season.  It worried me – for one second, but, I will give Papi a few weeks before I conclude anything!  On a positive side, Ortiz looked in very good shape, to me.

The Sox and Yanks’ bullpens both face questions, and, the Yankees’ pen, at this early stage, looks like it may be vulnerable.

First, I don’t know what happened to Joba Chamberlain in the past year or so, but, he just isn’t the same pitcher.  He seems to lack the same confidence he had as a rookie.  He often lacks command of his pitches.  He doesn’t seem to throw the ball quite as hard as he once did.   He looked ordinary during his appearance.  The Sox’ Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon looked good.  Ramon Ramirez, who often pitches the 6th for the Sox, started his season poorly, and, I was not surprised.  After his great start last year Ramirez threw erratically, at best, the rest of the season – and, often, poorly.  If he cannot improve soon, I’d yank him from the bullpen.  Manny Delcarmen  didn’t pitch Monday, but, he had a shaky spring, after finishing poorly last year.    But, the Yanks’ pen, particularly Chan Ho Park, looked bad Monday, and that was refreshing given their strengths in most areas.

In the end, the Sox hitting will be even more dependent on Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia in 2010.   Each had terrific games Monday.  Pedroia hit a clutch home run.  Youkilis had three extra-base hits.  I believe Youkilis, quietly, has become one of the top 15 or so hitters in baseball.  He’s easily the best batter on the Red Sox.  Why?  He can do it all.  He hits for contact and power.   He has a fantastic eye and always makes pitchers work.  He hits in the clutch, and, seems, unlike J.D. Drew, to know when to swing and when to take a pitch with men on base in the late innings.

The Yankees, while still featuring an awesome, scary lineup, look just a tiny bit less threatening without Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and, even Melky Cabrera.   Maybe Curtis Granderson will be good.   Maybe Brett Gardner will too.   Yet, Damon and Matsui were proven clutch performers who came up with uncountable “big” hits, particularly against the Red Sox.

Seeing Pedro Martinez appear, by surprise, to throw out the first pitch, just reminded me that he was, by far, the most exciting player I’ve ever seen play for the Red Sox.   Pedro was the best.  He injected an incredible buzz to the Sox-Yanks rivalry.  It was fitting to have him here to kick off the rivalry in 2010.

AJ: Big Papi’s Huge Challenge in 2010

David Ortiz hit rock bottom last year.   In the first two months of the 2009 season, his inability to hit the baseball became a sad, embarrassing story.   Many fans and baseball writers concluded he was “done.”   He finally snapped out of it, and, began to hit in the second half of the season.   Yet, even when he was hitting some home runs and doubles, he didn’t look the same. 

Ortiz seemed to be on a downward slide, nearing the end of his career.  He lacked his customary, quick bat speed.  He was unable to get the bat on pitches on the corners – as he used to do with ease.   It was painful to watch this special player, who had heroically carried the Red Sox on his shoulders to the 2004 championship, look so bad at the plate.   

But, in a few days,  Ortiz will report for spring training and get another chance to prove himself – to prove he can be a dangerous hitter in the Sox lineup again.   The eyes of Red Sox Nation will be fixed on him, looking for any signs of a return to form.   The 2010 Red Sox’ weakness, after all,  is in power hitting, and, who better to lead them again, but Big Papi? 

The problem is Ortiz is not trying to recover from an injury.   He’s not just trying to get over a bad season.  No, Ortiz is trying to ward off the effects of aging and decline that eventually overtake all hitters.    

The odds are stacked against him.  Ortiz’s struggles appear related to a loss of skills.   Yet, who knows?  Last year was the first season in which he looked THAT bad, and, he did improve over time.  All reports suggest that Ortiz has been working out particularly hard during this off-season.  He has lost weight and looks good.   If Ortiz manages to get some bat speed back and hit better than last year, I’ll find it a minor miracle.  I’d see it as a BONUS.

Right now,  I expect Ortiz to perform at about the same level he did last year. From July, 2009,  on, Ortiz wasn’t the same versatile, amazing power hitter of 2004 – 2006, when he often resembled Barry Bonds at the plate.  In those days, pitchers could not leave the ball anywhere near the strike zone, or Big Papi would lash out at it and belt it to all fields.   In 2009, Ortiz hit with a more limited skill arsenal.  Often he pounced on “mistake” fastballs left down the middle.   Often, his HRs came against the less talented teams and facing less talented pitchers.  When Papi faced the best pitchers – on the Yankees or Angels, for example – he didn’t hit that well.

I know from watching baseball that, on occasion, older players at the end of their career can surprise you.  I was amazed to watch Carl Yastrzemski keep hitting fastballs until his last playing days.  I was surprised that Dwight Evans found a new approach that made him a better power hitter in his last years in Boston. 

David Ortiz faces a uniquely difficult predicament.  He is the hitter (along with Manny Ramirez, as a close second) who, more than anyone, ended The Curse for the Red Sox with his heroics in 2004.  He hit so many game-winning home runs and clutch hits that Red Sox owner John Henry gave him a placque honoring him as “the greatest clutch hitter in Red Sox history.”  I recall thinking:  “It’s about time this city recognized the enormity of what Ortiz has done.”

Of course, last year, when Ortiz’ name showed up on the list of players who had taken performance-enhancing drugs in 2003, his image took a big hit.  Ortiz claimed he had been “careless” about how he used over-the-counter supplements and vitamins.  He denied ever knowingly using steroids. 

Who knows the truth?  My guess is that Ortiz took something that “assisted” his performance for some period of time.  I like thinking he took only supplements, but, we might not ever know what he took or didn’t take. So far, I’ve been able to “blot” out this topic fairly well.  Otherwise, my memories of the Red Sox unforgettable 2004 season – with its beautiful endinng – would become tainted. 

All I know is David Ortiz is a player I’ved loved rooting for.  He has a big heart and is one of the more well-liked players – not only on the Red Sox but among other teams’ players.  I hope he has it in him to have one more good year in 2010.   It’s the last year of his contract.  It’d be nice if Big Papi could finish strong.

Big Mike: My Heart Bleeds For You, AJ

Poor AJ. His boys won 95 games in 2009. Apparently they were the wrong kind of wins. Or something.

I would have sawed off my right pinkie for 95 wins (not my left pinkie, though, since I’m trying to learn how to play the guitar.)

Are your fears for the Flaming Hose really warranted? Ortiz’s RBI were “quiet”? Bay “put up terrific numbers but… he’s a bit overrated”? Papelbon “gave up walks or hits and often had difficulty finishing batters off”? Ellsbury “can be pitched to by better pitchers”? Sheesh!

Whaddya want 105 wins?

I suppose the answer yes. Who wouldn’t want 105 wins? But no one — repeat, no one — can construct a team with the expectation that they’ll win 105. Not even the colossus that occupies new Yankee Stadium won 105 (of course, they did knock off 103 opponents but let’s not quibble.)

Have the Red Sox and their fans become — dare I say it — too demanding? It seems a short half decade ago, il Nazione del Calzini Rossi would have been thrilled to string up 95 fascisti. Now, 95 wins — bah! A bag of shells.

Were I the majordomo of the Sox, I wouldn’t worry too much about Papelbon’s walks or hits (his WHIP stood at a fine 1.15.) If Bay’s putting up terrific numbers, I’d say, Keep it up, Jason my boy. As for Ellsbury’s problems with better pitchers? Um, I’d guess the reason those guys are “better pitchers” is because they get most guys out, period.

I would fret a little about David Ortiz. He’s now 34 years old and weighs 230 pounds — at least that’s what the Red Sox web site claims. His bathroom scale might dissent. His best years are like a big ass — behind him. Then again, most AL teams would drool over the prospect of their DHs putting up mediocre Ortiz numbers. The Boston club really ain’t got much to worry about does it?

Sometimes fans and even GMs can overreact. Take last off-season. After the Cubs had led the National League with 97 wins, they went out and jumped in front of that speeding bus from LA. Fans boo-hooed as if the Cubs had gone sub-.500. Lou Piniella suggested that maybe the team needed a left handed bat to counteract teams loading up with righthanders against them — as the Dodgers did. Hungry Jim Hendry promptly turned over 40 percent of his roster, mainly in an effort to afford the $30M/3-year deal he bestowed upon Milton Bradley.

Pardon me while I have a seizure. Gurgle, gulp, ack-ack-ack. The memory of the Bradley signing is now a lesion in my brain that occasionally causes electrical disturbances among my remaining several hundred neurons. Ah — all better now.

Hendry dumped Mark DeRosa, Kerry Wood and Jason Marquis, all in an effort to squeeze Gameboard into the budget. The 2009 team could have used a nice fifth starter like Marquis (who, by the way, went to the all-star game.) They would have benefitted greatly from DeRosa’s 23 home runs, especially in Aramis Ramirez’s absence. Wood? Well, he stunk the joint up with the Tribe but he still was better than the execrable Kevin Gregg.

Be careful what you wish for, AJ. What’s Theo Epstein to do? Look for a centerfielder? Yeah, you could do better than young Jacoby. You could grab Carlos Beltran from the Mets and hope he thrives in Fenway. But at what cost?

Should Theo let Bay or Drew walk? Whaddya gonna do then? Play Joey Gathright and Rocco Baldelli?

In terms of planning, a good GM walks the tightrope. He (or she — Kim Ng, I hear, is in the running for the Padres job) can’t rely on an unchanging roster year after year. He also can’t swap his assets like so many baseball cards.

The Big Mike Philosophy of Building a Baseball Team, taught at the better universities around the country, holds that the GM should build his team with an aim to win 90 games. If your team is a consistent 90-game-winner, you’ll be battling for the division title every single year. And while the team may occasionally dip to 84-78, it’ll just as often rise to 96-66. That’s definite Champagne territory.

Now you may say 96 wins is fine for the Minnesota Twins or the Colorado Rockies but the Red Sox share a division with the Yankees. Okay. Let the Yanks spend $200M every year and win the East. It’s no dishonor to sneak into the playoffs via the Wild Card. In fact, the Red Sox of 2004 rode that ticket to their first World Series win in 10,000 years (that ancient triumph over the hated Jericho Palms!)

Just because New York assembled an all-star team and danced to the division title doesn’t mean Theo (and you) should panic. Theo (and you) should start planning for a future without Big Papi but the current lineup built around Pedroia, Bay, Youkilis and Martinez (assuming everybody’s re-signed) is scarier than a Glenn Beck commentary.

Boston is a lock to win at least 90 in 2010. Even if David Ortiz’s bat continues to soften and Josh Beckett’s back continues to throb, the Red Sox, along with the Yankees and Angels, will be the cream of the league. You worry too much.

Me? I’ve got Bradley in right field, Carlos Zambrano on the mound, and a century-plus of losing on my mind. I worry.

AJ: 2009 Red Sox Were Not What They Appeared

The 2009 Red Sox’ best feat was somehow winning 95 games in the AL East.  That’s not easy to do in the toughest division in baseball.  Yet, even the total of 95 was misleading.

First, the Red Sox racked up victories by going 16 -2 against the pitiful Baltimore Orioles, for example, but, didn’t fare as well against most opposing teams with winning records.  For instance, the Sox went 2-7 vs. the Texas Rangers;  4-5 vs. the Los Angeles Angels; and, 2-4 vs. the Seattle Mariners.  Even the Sox’ 9-9 record in games vs. the NY Yankees is distorted because the Sox went 8-0 vs. the Yanks during the first half(when A-Rod was often not in the lineup) but, the Yanks won 9 of the last 10 games vs. the Sox, and, looked dominant in doing so.

Second, the Sox record at home was 56-25, while, on the road, it was 39-42.  Most teams with championship potential don’t have a losing record on the road.

Third, the Sox hitting was very over-rated because, while they could rip mediocre pitching, they struggled BADLY against good pitchers.  By season’s end, observers were saying:  “This is a lineup that can be pitched to.”  Except for Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez, the Sox are fastball hitters who can’t hit breaking pitches.

If I have to summarize, it’s that the Sox have a tremendous VOID in their lineup once filled by David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, who led them to the 2004 and 2007 World Series titles.  Big Papi and Manny provided one of the most powerful, 1-2 punches in baseball history.  Yeah, I’d put them on a short list with Gehrig/Ruth and six or eight other duos.  Now, Ramirez is gone and Ortiz is a shell of his old self.  No one has replaced them.

So, image and reality clashed in many ways with the 2009 Red Sox.  Consider these specific examples:

1)  David Ortiz – Big Papi, after starting off with an unbelievably bad, two-month slump that had many – including me – thinking he was “done,” came back and ended with 28 HRs and 99 RBIs.  But, the stats are very misleading because, as Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe put it, they were about the “quietest” 99 RBIs imaginable and many were against the worst teams.  In big moments, against the good teams,  Ortiz usually failed to hit.

2)  Jason Bay – Bay put up terrific numbers (36 HRs, 119 RBIs) but, I think he’s a bit over-rated.  Why? He can’t hit breaking stuff.  Bay is a fantastic “mistake” hitter who belts fastballs, but, on many occasions, when facing quality pitching, Bay went down swinging.  (He was also streaky, hot at the start, a long slump, then, hot at the end). 

3)  Jonathan Papelbon - Papelbon is still an excellent closer, but, he had a much tougher time in 2009 than people have acknowledged.  In many of his saves, he gave up walks or hits and often had real difficulty finishing hitters off.  Batters can make contact vs. Papelbon much more easily than in the past, even when he’s throwing at 96 mph.  So, when he blew the save in Game 3 of the ALDS, I was not shocked.  I had watched him battle with erratic control all season.  He apparently changed his pitching motion to protect his arm, but, in any event, he’s not in the same place he was in 2007.  He also badly needs a new pitch to complement his fastball.

4) Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis – Viewed as the team’s core in 2008, they both had solid years, but dropped in performance, particularly hitting with men on base, compared to 2008.

5)  Jacoby Ellsbury -  He’s improving and had a good year, but, he’s still learning how to hit.  He, like others, can be pitched to by better pitchers.

6)  Josh Beckett – His fading performance in the past two months – into the playoffs – has still not been explained.  Suddenly, he lost his fastball command and couldn’t throw his curve consistently, but, after being treated for back spasms, the team denied Beckett had physical problems.  I think he had a tired arm the whole time.  It’s the second year in a row that Beckett ”broke down” season’s end and the team should handle him better. 

7)  JD Drew – Drew didn’t provide any boost in 09;  he never does. Despite his high OPS, Drew is a bust who’s not worth close to his $13 million a year salary.  I have so much to say about Drew that I’ll dedicate another blog to it.