AJ: It’s Stellar Pitching or Bust for Red Sox

Most baseball observers agree the 2010 Red Sox starting rotation – on paper - is as good as any in baseball.  What is usually unstated is that unless the starting pitchers perform outstandingly, the team will have no chance to compete in the playoffs.   

After years of featuring superstar sluggers, the Boston Red Sox, suddenly, have a whole new make-up.  The bulk of the team’s talent and strength is found in its starting pitchers.  

The starters will be:  Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Clay Buchholz.  Veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is likely to be a reserve starter who will get his share of chances.

General Manager Theo Epstein has backtracked on his remark at baseball’s winter meetings that the Sox 2010 season would be a “bridge” to the future, when some of the team’s hot young prospects will be ready for the big league squad in 2011.  

  “..Never did I mean that we’re not going to be competitive this year or next year,” Epstein remarked in Dan Shaughnessy’s column in the Feb. 21st Boston Globe.   “…If we don’t score as many runs as we did last year, I certainly think we’ll make up for that in terms of our run prevention,” Epstein added.  “Our defense is going to be so much better.”

This is where Epstein loses me.   Dwelling on “run prevention” seems so unconvincing.  The Red Sox defense wasn’t THAT bad last year.  Plus, in general, it’s very hard to count on excellent defense to win a certain number of games for a team.  It just doesn’t work that way.   Unless……….the team gets incredible pitching.  That’s the one way this Red Sox edition can succeed in 2010. 

This pitching staff is, argubly, as good as any rotation on past Red Sox teams.  In 2004, the rotation was damned good – with Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe leading the way in that championship year.  I recall back in 1978, I was thrilled when Sports Illustrated  chose to run a big story on the Sox starting rotation of Dennis Eckersley, Mike Torrez, Louis Tiant and Bill Lee.   Of course, when Roger Clemens arrived and he and Bruce Hurst led the Sox quest for a title in 1986, that was a new experience for Sox fans like me, who were accustomed to years of mediocre pitching.

Consider this 2010 team’s individual pitchers.  Beckett is always competitive and self-motivated, but, this year, his adrenalin may flow even more.   He’s in the last year of his contract, and, has experienced frustrating injuries at the end of two consecutive seasons.  If he’s healthy, Beckett may really shine.  It’s all about his health.   Lester has become the best pitcher on the team.  He’s matured and can win games without his best stuff now – the sign of a top-notch starter.   Lackey shares that savvy.  He’s proven himself.  The last image I have of him is pitching impressively against the Yankees in the 2009 playoffs – not an easy task.  Matsuzaka has worked his butt off in the off-season.  He’s in great shape, lighter and with a hunger to make up for his lost season last year.   That leaves Buchholz, who may be poised for a genuine “breakout” season as a young, promising talent.  Buchholz has terrific stuff (a beautiful changeup) but simply has to prove he can be consistent for a whole season.

So, the question is whether the less powerful lineup of Sox hitters can combine for enough runs night in and night out to accumulate wins for their loaded pitching staff.   Will Adrian Beltre be a much better hitter at Fenway Park than he was at Safeco in Seattle?  If he gets in the habit of belting line drives off the Green Monster, he may be a key addition.  Will David Ortiz return to form?  Can Mike Cameron hit half-decently any more?  Can Victor Martinez accept that the prominent role he has now and keep up his clutch hitting?  Will Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis both hit consistently at a high level all year?  Can Marco Scutaro be a better-hitting shortstop than the team’s past few?

There are questionmarks about much of the Sox lineup.   The team’s hitting certainly does not come close to the talented lineup of the New York Yankees.  The Tampa Rays seem as ready as ever to compete for the AL East title. 

The difference between this Sox team and that of recent years is the lack of any margin for error with the starting pitching.  In the past, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz and other first-rate hitters often bailed out average pitching performances.   In 2010, I believe the Red Sox will either win a lot of low-scoring, well-pitched games OR they will not have a good year.  

Pitching is everything for the 2010 Red Sox.

AJ: You’re Missing My Point, Big Mike

Big Mike, I can accept that Javier Vazquez is not an ace, but, I also can be fascinated about why he hasn’t become one.  I don’t just analyze concrete realities, but, try to imagine how players or teams might change or improve.  It’s a lot more interesting that way.

In the case of Vazquez, he’s been oozing with enough talent through the years that he’s left many more observers than one Peter Ajemian to wonder why he couldn’t dazzle hitters even more often.

In fact, as I was writing the blog and had chosen to label Vazquez “an enigma,” I looked up an article on him in The Hardball Times, to check on his pitching repertoire.  The article was headlined,” The enigma that is Javier Vazquez”  I felt reinforcement when I read that others had wondered why his talent hadn’t taken him further.   It’s not that I was complaining he had not met some “standard;” but, rather, “How can a guy with so much rich talent NOT become more of a star pitcher?”

To tell you the truth, these are the kind of topics that make me love baseball.  The details.  How did CC Sabathia make an adjustment on one of his pitches last summer so that it helped make him much more effective?

How did Red Sox closer Keith Foulke, with only two pitches,  use a little “tic” in his motion — hesitating a split second before he uncorked the ball – keep hitters off balance enough to excell in 2004 and help the Sox go all the way?  Foulke’s fastball was average.  His changeup was good, but, many – including myself – believe that that tiny hesitation move was the KEY to his success

How could Derek Lowe have a fairly mediocre 2004 season, and then pitch three consecutive fantastic games in the 2004 playoffs for the Red Sox?  He’s a good “adrenalin” pitcher, but, why was he good at that and other pitchers choke under pressure?

I’ve always been more fascinated by the cases involving when pitchers or other athletes HAVE the talent and seem poised to keep rising up, but, just can’t do it, often for psychological reasons or quirky things.  Remember Jose Contreras, the star pitcher from Cuba who the Yanks and Sox wildy competed for?  When he got to the Yanks, he was SO UP and DOWN – often within the same game!  He’d pitch brilliantly for three or four innings and record eight strikouts, and, then he’d walk a couple of guys in the next inning and start to unravel — very badly – and he’ d be out of the game.

Now, Big Mike, maybe you don’t care about a pitcher like that — and you’d say:  “That’s baseball….He did the best he could….He was just erratic..”

What makes a pitcher or a player get to the next level?  Those more complex, intangibles are often interesting.  Take Joba Chamberlain on the Yanks.  I can’t stand him, but I think he’s very talented.  Yet, it’s unclear, even after a couple years, if this guy is going to use his potential or perhaps be distracted and squander it.   

It’s details that often make a real difference in what happens to a pitcher.  He might get a new pitching coach and start to thrive by incorporating a new pitch or two.  He might just need more reassurance.

I can use Clay Buccholz on the Red Sox as another example.  He’s got loads of talent – a killer changeup, excellent curve, and good fastball.  He pitched a no-hitter during his first call-up during the 2007 season.  Then, in 2008, Buchholz joined the rotation, and, after he lost a few games, he became very inconsistent and had a lousy season.  He, clearly, had lost his confidence.

Some fans were ready to give up on him before 2009, but, he, when he got called up that time, he performed much better and, now he’s slated to be in the 2010 rotation.  No one – still – knows if he’ll become a star pitcher or a more average pitcher like Javier Vazquez, but, it’s fun and fascinating to see how it comes out.   What might help him improve or be stymied?

It’s the gray that’s often more interesting than the black and white, Big Mike.