I cannot say I’m surprised by the Red Sox recent string of losses. In fact, I can say: “I told you so…,” to a large extent, because my posts from the start of this 2010 season have consistently featured my strong doubts about the staying power of this Red Sox team.
The team still has time to recover, and, possibly, make the wild card, or, even, catch the New York Yankees, if the Bombers run into horrible luck for a change. However, I think the odds are overwhelmingly against the Red Sox and the evidence of that is likely to keep showing up on the field. First, the rash of injuries plaguing the ballclub is really catching up to the Sox. Their daily lineup, which does not include Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez or Jacoby Ellsbury, continues to score too few runs – particularly in the clutch – to qualify as a team that will contend in the playoffs.
The Red Sox have lost 10 of their last 14 games and are now 7 games behind the Yankees (8 in the loss column) in the American League East, and, 4.5 games behind the second-place Tampa Bay Rays, who currently lead the Wild Card race. The Red Sox have lost 5 of their 7 games since the All-Star break, and, not scored more than 4 runs in their last 8 games, the Boston Globe reported on July 22. The team’s hitting has bottomed-out in the absence of Pedroia and Martinez. In addition, David Ortiz, since winning the home-run derby at the All-Star festivities, is 3 for 25 with 10 strikeouts since the All-Star break, Nick Cafardo reported in his July 22 colum in the Globe.
What’s amazing is that the Red Sox have done as well as they have despite all their injuries! They could easily be 12 or 15 games behind the Yankees. Adrian Beltre, who is having an unexpected, sensational season as a hitter, has carried this team for a long stretch. Beltre is now batting .339 with 16 HRs and an OPS of .937. While Beltre and Ortiz were hot – and Pedroia, Martinez and Kevin Youkilis were all hitting – the team had just enough punch to win games. I’d argue, however, that even then, the team lacked sufficient contact and power hitting to mount a real challenge to the Yankees, or, probably, the Rays too – if the Rays can hold it together.
So, what the Sox do at the July 31st trading deadline will, again, go a long way in determining if they have any chance to get back into this race. It will give us a glimpse of whether General Manager Theo Epstein really thinks this team has genuine potential to make – and succeed in the – the playoffs. Baseball observers around Boston seem to agree that Epstein is not likely to make a blockbuster trade, partly because he wants to hang onto the team’s best minor-league prospects, and, perhaps partly because he may not be able to find players available who match up with the team’s urgent needs right now. Most seem to expect Theo to get a relief pitcher and maybe another backup player. What a far cry from the off-season speculation about the Red Sox getting San Diego slugger Adrian Gonzalez at the trading deadline! The Padres are doing way too well, as it turns out, to part with “A-Gon.”
Oh, well……..It looks like this season may get boring awfully fast. The only route the Sox can take to beating the odds now? Their starting pitching rotation – which is finally intact with the return of long-injured Josh Beckett tomorrow – has the potential to carry the team for weeks. Do I think it will happen? No. Why? The Sox hitting remains mediocre – with or without their missing players in the lineup. I’ve heard all season about the Red Sox leading the league in “Runs Scored” and other hitting categories and I believe these stats have proven one of my main baseball arguments: That hitting stats can be incredibly misleading. Sure, the Red Sox have put up high run totals against the lousy and average teams, but, if you check their run totals against the best teams, they’ve often struggled to produce two or three runs a game. Stats can be meaningless!
I’ll illustrate it further by looking at a player who I love to complain about: JD Drew. Once again, Drew, who earns $14 million a year – the highest salary for all Sox position players – is having a mediocre season in 2010. He’s done his usual good job as a right-fielder, gracefully getting to flyballs. But, Drew, again, often has failed to get many “big hits.” As of July 22, Drew is batting .270 with 45 RBIs. Shortstop Marco Scutaro is one of several players with more hits than Drew. Dustin Pedroia, who has played in 73 games, has 86 hits while Drew, who has played in 85 games, has 77 hits. So, fine, Drew may not stink, but, he’s sure as hell not earning his $14 million team-high salary!
I’ll harp on it some more. JD Drew typifies what’s wrong with the 2010 Red Sox and the direction the team has gone under Theo Epstein the past few seasons. Theo is too in awe of stats and pays too little attention to human factors. The most glaring example: Theo never saw how good a hitter Mike Lowell was and has seemed to have minimal appreciation of Lowell’s role in the clubhouse. Theo got Beltre mainly for his defense, but, then Beltre fit in superbly with the team and has surprised everyone with his production. Theo looked at Dodger closer Eric Gagne’s record and figured he’d just continue to pitch well in Boston, but, Gagne lost his confidence immediately and was terrible. I could give other examples, but Drew is, by far, the best one. Theo just gushes about Drew and seems to argue continually that he makes an outstanding contribution. The only problem is it’s just not true. Drew has been good at times, but, overall played way, way below his salary and much worse than the adjectives and adverbs Epstein applies to him.
When you reflect on Epstein’s career as GM, it seems hard to dispute that his best, boldest move was to trade Nomar Garciaparra in the middle of the 2004 season for Montreal Expos shortstop Orlando Cabrera and Minnesota Twins first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz. Back then, he did what was necessary to help the team win. Since then, some of his moves have seemed aimed at building his personal favorite “fantasy baseball team” or something. So, if he just likes JD Drew, he’ll keep defending him – whether or not Drew is earning his salary.
At times, Epstein seems very realistic and practical. At other times, he seems in some denial about the talents of his players and team.
Either way he’s perceiving the 2010 Red Sox, they face a steep, uphill battle to contend for the playoffs.
