AJ: Baseball Writers Are Like Sheep

If ”pack journalism” is a generic term used to describe news reporters, I’d say it applies more sweepingly to baseball writers.  Is there a less original group of journalists out there? 

Baseball writers always seem to be all stressing the same themes at the same time.  Making the same predictions.  Praising the same players, and, “buying” the same lines from GMs, managers or players.   They behave like sheep.

 The writers choose to take “the party line” most of the time.  So, if several leading baseball writers pick one team as “the big favorite” to win it all, most join the chorus without raising dissenting questions.   If the elite baseball writers are dumping on A-Rod, other writers seem to join in.  One minute, in 2008, they were all complaining about Manny Ramirez’ attitude.  The next minute, they were all praising his performance in Los Angeles when he ignited the Dodgers.

I raise this because the “conventional wisdom” – with the 2010 season just days away – is that the Boston Red Sox will be one of the best teams in baseball and compete for a championship.  Some are even picking the Sox to win it all.

In other years, I’ve understood some optimistic predictions about the Red Sox, but, this time, I’m puzzled.   I am not predicting a World Series title for the Sox.   I think the only way the Sox could seriously contend is by making a huge,  mid-season acquisition like Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres.

The Red Sox, right now, lack the hitting necessary to win it all…..but, because the “conventional wisdom” is that they’ll be as good as almost any other team, the facts have, typically, been downplayed by the “pack” of baseball writers.

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, has spent months gushing about the improved “run prevention” the Sox will have in 2010 with better defense brought by newcomers Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro and Mike Cameron.   Many baseball writers, while raising questions about the Sox hitting, have basically “bought” – at least to some extent – Theo’s argument.   This is unsurprising;  after all, because the “conventional wisdom” is that Theo is one of the best GMs in baseball.

Except, Mr. Whiz Kid ( Theo) makes mistakes, on occasion, just like every other GM.  In fact, it was only a year ago that baseball writers – like sheep – were heaping praise on Theo for being so smart by acquiring veteran pitchers Brad Penny and John Smoltz to join the Sox 2009 pitching staff.  How wise Theo was to get these pitchers for so little money in short-term deals, the writers crowed.   He had creatively found a way to counter the Yanks’ signing stud hitter Mark Teixeira. 

Then, Penny and Smoltz didn’t do that well, especially Smoltz, and I don’t recall any baseball writers discussing how Theo’s commitment to these two guys damaged the Sox season.  In fact, after a bit of initial success, Penny’s outings deteriorated and Smoltz pitched poorly the entire time.   For one stretch, the Sox kept putting Smoltz out there and he kept losing badly and looking horribly on the mound, but, it seemed it was more important to the organization to give Smoltz a chance than the 2009 team.  Meanwhile, Clay Buchholz didn’t get called up to start until after the All-Star break partly because these two veteran pitchers were in the rotation.

Theo Epstein was responsible for Penny and Smoltz, but, he escaped virtually any criticism for the team using them so much.  The Sox somehow made the playoffs by beating up on bad teams before getting swept by the Angels.  Mark Teixeira, meanwhile, (the guy the Red Sox let get away) helped lead the Yankees to a World Series victory.

Likewise, Theo was widely praised, when he acquired veteran closer Eric Gagne at the trading deadline in 2007.  Gagne, a former Cy Young winner coming back from injuries, was viewed as a guy who could be a terrific set-up guy before closer Jonathan Papelbon came in.  As it turned out, Gagne was a total bust.  He was so terrible that he barely pitched in the playoffs as the Sox went on to win the World Series.  

I fully accept that ups and downs come with any GM’s guesswork.  What gets on my nerves is how baseball writers seem predisposed to spew whatever the conventional line is at a given moment in a given season. 

At the moment, I think baseball writers want the Red Sox- Yankees rivalry to continue, and for the Sox to succeed because, let’s face it:  When the Red Sox are in the race, baseball is more interesting for millions of fans in Red Sox Nation — meaning all over the country. 

But, I see some national and local baseball writers who are glossing over the glaring weaknesses in the Sox hitting lineup.  Jason Stark of ESPN just wrote a piece arguing the Red Sox hitting will be better than some think, but, his arguments seemed weak.  He quoted David Ortiz and hitting coach Dave Magadan a lot about how they feel upbeat  and mentioned the Sox stat for “runs scored” in 2009.  Yet, the Sox scored a big chunk of their runs in 2009 against bad teams like the Orioles while faring poorly against good pitching.

 I think Theo Epstein spoke more of the truth when, he made his infamous, off-the-cuff remark this past winter that 2010 would be a “bridge” year for the Red Sox.   A transition year when certain veteran players’ contracts would end and several of the youngest, hottest prospects in the Sox farm system would get closer to the “Show.”

Hey, I hope the baseball “pack” turns out to be more right than me about the Red Sox fortunes in 2010.   But, I will always wish that baseball writers didn’t all fall into the herd so much.

AJ: Terry Francona, The Survivor

Think about the dynamics that Red Sox manager Terry Francona inherited back in 2004.

Francona arrived at his first spring training in February, 2004, only months after the Red Sox had suffered an incredibly painful, masochistic loss to their hated rivals, the NY Yankees, in Game 7 of the ACLS.  Of all the Red Sox’ previous failures, their agonizing loss in 2003 was unique:  It was their manager, Grady Little, who had singlehandedly, blown that game, and, the season.  Little had left Pedro Martinez in the game after Pedro had pitched brilliantly, but grown fatigued – and the Yankes rallied for the win.   Little was blamed all over New England.   The manager’s position had never attracted so much ire and disgust.   The Red Sox, wisely, fired Little and hired Francona to start all over.  

Francona had to show his stuff in 2004, and, he did:  He led the team to win its first World Series since 1918.   He was at the helm when the Sox’ band of “Idiots” staged the greatest comeback in sports history by rallying from an 0-3 deficit to defeat the evil Yankees and go on to beat the Cardinals to win it all.  It was amazing.

What’s also amazing is that Francona has been manager ever since!  He’s about to start his seventh season as manager.  Red Sox managers – for the longest time – never lasted here, in short, because it’s a tough place to manage due to pressure from fans and media.  I think only one previous manager – Joe Cronin, stuck around longer than Francona has.  (Cronin was manager from 1935 – 1947).  Managers of the Red Sox, through the years, typically lasted a year or two or three — but, not much longer.   Francona led the team to a second World Series in 2007, further smashing precedents for the team or its managers.   Now, as we look ahead to 2010,  I’ve realized that Sox fans take Francona for granted to some extent.

So, whatever his strengths and weaknesses, Francona has convinced Red Sox managment, including Sox GM Theo Epstein, that he has what it takes.

I have mixed feelings about Francona.   On the one hand, I think he’s performed some of his most important duties quite well.  He knows how to make good use of baseball stats before, during and after games, but, he also uses discretion and weighs “human factors” and game conditions to make game decisions as well.  Overall, he handles his pitching staff well.  That is, of course, not a small point.   He seems to collaborate well with pitching coach John Farrell.  He tries to take steps to ensure pitchers get rest they need and avoid pitching through injuries.  

Francona is a ”player’s manager” in every sense.  In a positive way, he really seems to communicate well with all his players.  He checks in with them.  He tells them, in advance, about his lineup decisions.  He tries to maintain good chemistry in the clubhouse.  He has a rapport with separate players.  (For example:  his steady joking with Dustin Pedroia is now well-known) . 

 This brings me to my main reservation about Francona:  He’s so chummy with his players that he seems incapable, on occasion, of being assertive enough with them.  There have been many moments when I wished Francona had either sat a player down for a game or two, OR, decided to bench a non-performing pitcher, OR, in general, challenge his veteran players, when necessary.  Francona makes up a little nickname for almost every player, and, sometimes, the extent to which he goes to invent a nickname – even when it’s a lousy nickname – almost, humorously, makes my point that he seems to try a bit too hard to please his players at times.  (He called pitcher Kyle Snyder “Snydes.”  I’m not saying this is important, but it is funny)

I’ll try to illustrate my point by citing how former NY Yankee Joe Torre used to manage the Yankees.  I recall occasions when Torre would be asked about sensitive topics relating to his players and he’d confront the topics, and find a way to respond with candor, but avoid being disrespectful to his players.   Likewise, Torre sometimes would act decisively in his game decisions.  I recall once, when Roger Clemens just didn’t have it in the early innings of a big playoff game, Torre yanked him after a couple of innings.  I cannot imagine Francona ever yanking one of his starters that early the way Torre did.

In fact, I recall Francona often leaving pitchers in too long – after they’d demonstrated they were not sharp.  Often, he does this with veteran pitchers.  Last year, he was far too patient with John Smoltz, who routinely got knocked around and stayed in the game too long.   Francona has often left knuckleballer Tim Wakefield in too long.   Francona was too patient with former LA Dodger closer, Eric Gagne, after, in 2007, the Sox acquired Gagne at the trading deadline to be a setup reliever, for a half-season.  After Gagne had repeated terrible outings, Francona kept going to him, and he kept getting shelled, and, badly hurt the team in at least a few games.

However, Francona’s handling of pitchers, has still been better than most previous Red Sox managers.  (Gagne didn’t stop the team from winning it all in 2007!)

Francona seems to get along well with Epstein and that’s probably a large key to his long tenure here.  I sense Epstein is a GM who is more involved in monitoring and overseeing day-to-day game decisions than some GMs, but,  Francona seems able to work with Theo.  (Perhaps some would insist on being left alone more)   At times, however, I’ve wished Francona would be more assertive  with Theo too, and tell him, with more urgency, what the team’s needs on the field.

In summary, one cannot argue with Francona’s record.   His teams have, for the most part, performed well.  His players seem to respect him and cite his fairness, decency and his role in creating a good climate for enjoying their long season with their teammates.

Francona has experienced some fairly serious health problems through the years, including a circulatatory problem.  I personally sense he might not want to manage much longer and that perhaps his health might influence that decision.  I wouldn’t be surprised if John Farrell, if he’s still here, gets chosen to succeed Francona.

No matter what one thinks of Francona, no one can dispute that he’s outlasted almost all of his predecessors.  As Red Sox managers go, he’s a survivor.   He must be doing something right.