The Red Sox’ near-final deal with free agent pitcher John Lackey should be a large sign of reassurance to Sox fans everywhere.
First, Lackey makes the Sox rotation, on paper, as strong and deep as any in baseball. Second, the team’s willingness to sign him to an five-year, near-$85 million deal indicates the team badly wants to win in 2010. (Until yesterday, Sox GM Theo Epstein had stressed that the team is in a “bridge” period until 2011 or 2012, when its younger players are ready). Third, signing Lackey allows the Red Sox the flexibility to make another big deal for a hitter, if they choose.
I agree with ESPN/Boston’s Gordon Edes column yesterday that signing Lackey was unusual for Epstein because the Sox have avoided signing free agent pitchers to long-term deals. Except for Japanese star pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, since when has Theo been willing to dish out $85 million to a 31-year-old pitcher who has been on the DL with arm problems the past two years and who has had only one season of winning more than 14 games?
The answer is: Theo hasn’t done it. So, why are the Red Sox doing it? They realized, in the past few days, they could not reach a deal with left-fielder Jason Bay, whose agent seems intent on a five-year contract. They know Matt Holliday, a client of Scott Boras, will expect even more money. So, suddenly the Sox realized they had to do SOMETHING this off-season to stay competitive with the Yankees. Signing Lackey was the way they chose to do so. I admit I’m still baffled why they’re willing to go five years with Lackey given the tendency of pitchers to break down at the stage Lackey is at – while, they dug their heels in about not giving Bay a five-year deal. I’ve heard speculation of the Sox being concerned about Bay’s health over the length of a new contract, but, no definitive explanation has emerged yet.
So, is this it? Will the Red Sox open the 2010 season with Mike Cameron in left, perhaps platooning with Jeremy Hermida? If so, I remain dissatisfied with the lack of hitting on this team – and, I predict that would prevent any ultimate success. They still need much more hitting.
No one knows if they’ll now use Clay Buchholz to try to get Adrian Gonzalez or another power hitter. Could they put Jacoby Ellsbury in a deal with Buccholz and have Cameron play center? Are they interested in perhaps getting Nick Johnson to play 1st and move Youkilis to third? We’ll find out soon enough, but, let’s consider Lackey and Cameron for a minute.
Big Mike, I disagree with your characterizing Lackey as only a “good” pitcher right now. If you go back about five years, I would’ve agreed wiith you, but, Lackey, today, is a “very good” or “excellent” pitcher. You mentioned he seemed to reach a new peak in 2007. I think he’s much better now than he was. What do I base it on? My own observation. I watched Lackey closely through the years and I noticed when he almost pitched a NO-NO against the Red Sox in July, 2008. I watched him shut down the Sox more often the past year or two, including in the 2009 ADLS. I also watched Lackey pitch well against the Yankees in the 2009 ACLS. I know he didn’t get wins in those two games vs. the Bombers, but, he kept his team in the game, and, in one, he held the Pinstripers to 3 runs over nearly 7 innings.
More importantly, I’ve noticed Lackey’s command improve and his stuff seem to get better and better. He’s got a fastball with good movement, a terrific curveball, a decent changeup and a slider. Plus, Lackey seems to have developed a mental toughness on the mound that was absent five or six years ago. He’s got a tenacity that reminds me of Josh Beckett. He doesn’t want to hand the ball over to the manager in a borderline situation in the 6th or 7th inning.
So, while Lackey is not on the same level as Roy Halladay or C.C. Sabathia, he is, in my view, as good as Beckett right now. Yes, Beckett has slipped a bit, but he’s still good – if he’s healthy. Which leads me to the key to this deal: What are the chances Lackey will stay healthy over the next five years? Clearly, the Sox think he’ll be OK and that they can help him protect his arm.
Mike Cameron? OK, I respect his terrific fielding skill, but, he’s 36 now and he hasn’t hit that well the past few years. He’s a .250 career hitter, but the Sox, reportedly, are near a two-year deal to pay him $15.5 million.
The last thing the Red Sox need is another weak hitter. The one scenario in which it won’t matter is if they get another slugger. If they do, I’ll be fine with Cameron. If they don’t, I think it’s an unnecessary downgrade in hitting – given the team probably could’ve gotten Bay for a bit more dough.
It’s interesting. One gets the sense that after the Yankees got Curtis Granderson and Bay appeared un-signable, the Red Sox brass might have done a lot of internal debating over which path to go down – to avoid any big deal and hope the fans would be patient in 2010, or, to get Lackey and stay in the game.
What a relief. The 2010 Red Sox, whoever is on their final roster, are FAR more likely to be competitive now, with Lackey in their rotation, than beforehand. I look forward to their first game against the Yankees, on ESPN, on the night of April 4th!
