Big Mike: Closing The Door On Papelbon

A trade involving Papelbon is not as unthinkable as you say. In fact, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he’s not wearing the Scarlet Hose come spring training.

I have a sneaking suspicion that Theo and his brain trust (including my personal deity, Bill James) value Mr. Drew a hell of a lot more than their brilliant closer. In fact, they really don’t worship closers as much as the rest of the baseball world does.

Look, Papelbon made six and a quarter mill this past season. An arbitrator will award him, oh, in the neighborhood of $10M if things go that far. I doubt if he’ll agree to a pre-arb hearing deal for less than $9M. Should he continue being Jonathon Papelbon (as opposed to becoming, say, Jeremy Papelbon who toils in obscurity in the Cubs system, natch) he’ll get $10-12M next offseason. Then after 2011, he’s gonna be in for a four or five year, $80-100M deal when he becomes a free agent. Boston ain’t never gonna go for that.

(True, Papelbon is entering his sixth season in 2010 but, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, he’ll still be shy of free agency after next year. His first season in 2005 was a partial one.)

The Red Sox have a mighty payroll but it’s unlikely they’ll want to commit such a huge fraction of it to the closer. The best bet right now is to turn him into some very usable parts — a Major League-ready prospect, an established position player or some creative combination.

You might ask, Who’d do that? The White Sox would. The Pale Hose are becoming less than infatuated with Bobby Jenks. He’d be a nice bridge between the Papelbon and Bard eras. The WSox though, would have to scuffle to find that position player the RSox would want.

Okay then. How about the Tigers? Detroit has a gaping hole at closer. Would they be willing to package Curtis Granderson for Papelbon? The Red Sox would listen if Jason Bay takes a hike. Shifting Granderson to left with Ellsbury remaining in center and Drew in right — wow! That’d be a defensive outfield worth seeing.

The point is, there’s always a market for a closer with gaudy statistics. And the Red Sox seem always confident that they can fill the role either from within or without. Hell, they can even pick up Billy Wagner’s option or buy him out and offer him a reasonable contract to come back.

In any case, now’s the time to deal Papelbon.

Big Mike: My Heart Bleeds For You, AJ

Poor AJ. His boys won 95 games in 2009. Apparently they were the wrong kind of wins. Or something.

I would have sawed off my right pinkie for 95 wins (not my left pinkie, though, since I’m trying to learn how to play the guitar.)

Are your fears for the Flaming Hose really warranted? Ortiz’s RBI were “quiet”? Bay “put up terrific numbers but… he’s a bit overrated”? Papelbon “gave up walks or hits and often had difficulty finishing batters off”? Ellsbury “can be pitched to by better pitchers”? Sheesh!

Whaddya want 105 wins?

I suppose the answer yes. Who wouldn’t want 105 wins? But no one — repeat, no one — can construct a team with the expectation that they’ll win 105. Not even the colossus that occupies new Yankee Stadium won 105 (of course, they did knock off 103 opponents but let’s not quibble.)

Have the Red Sox and their fans become — dare I say it — too demanding? It seems a short half decade ago, il Nazione del Calzini Rossi would have been thrilled to string up 95 fascisti. Now, 95 wins — bah! A bag of shells.

Were I the majordomo of the Sox, I wouldn’t worry too much about Papelbon’s walks or hits (his WHIP stood at a fine 1.15.) If Bay’s putting up terrific numbers, I’d say, Keep it up, Jason my boy. As for Ellsbury’s problems with better pitchers? Um, I’d guess the reason those guys are “better pitchers” is because they get most guys out, period.

I would fret a little about David Ortiz. He’s now 34 years old and weighs 230 pounds — at least that’s what the Red Sox web site claims. His bathroom scale might dissent. His best years are like a big ass — behind him. Then again, most AL teams would drool over the prospect of their DHs putting up mediocre Ortiz numbers. The Boston club really ain’t got much to worry about does it?

Sometimes fans and even GMs can overreact. Take last off-season. After the Cubs had led the National League with 97 wins, they went out and jumped in front of that speeding bus from LA. Fans boo-hooed as if the Cubs had gone sub-.500. Lou Piniella suggested that maybe the team needed a left handed bat to counteract teams loading up with righthanders against them — as the Dodgers did. Hungry Jim Hendry promptly turned over 40 percent of his roster, mainly in an effort to afford the $30M/3-year deal he bestowed upon Milton Bradley.

Pardon me while I have a seizure. Gurgle, gulp, ack-ack-ack. The memory of the Bradley signing is now a lesion in my brain that occasionally causes electrical disturbances among my remaining several hundred neurons. Ah — all better now.

Hendry dumped Mark DeRosa, Kerry Wood and Jason Marquis, all in an effort to squeeze Gameboard into the budget. The 2009 team could have used a nice fifth starter like Marquis (who, by the way, went to the all-star game.) They would have benefitted greatly from DeRosa’s 23 home runs, especially in Aramis Ramirez’s absence. Wood? Well, he stunk the joint up with the Tribe but he still was better than the execrable Kevin Gregg.

Be careful what you wish for, AJ. What’s Theo Epstein to do? Look for a centerfielder? Yeah, you could do better than young Jacoby. You could grab Carlos Beltran from the Mets and hope he thrives in Fenway. But at what cost?

Should Theo let Bay or Drew walk? Whaddya gonna do then? Play Joey Gathright and Rocco Baldelli?

In terms of planning, a good GM walks the tightrope. He (or she — Kim Ng, I hear, is in the running for the Padres job) can’t rely on an unchanging roster year after year. He also can’t swap his assets like so many baseball cards.

The Big Mike Philosophy of Building a Baseball Team, taught at the better universities around the country, holds that the GM should build his team with an aim to win 90 games. If your team is a consistent 90-game-winner, you’ll be battling for the division title every single year. And while the team may occasionally dip to 84-78, it’ll just as often rise to 96-66. That’s definite Champagne territory.

Now you may say 96 wins is fine for the Minnesota Twins or the Colorado Rockies but the Red Sox share a division with the Yankees. Okay. Let the Yanks spend $200M every year and win the East. It’s no dishonor to sneak into the playoffs via the Wild Card. In fact, the Red Sox of 2004 rode that ticket to their first World Series win in 10,000 years (that ancient triumph over the hated Jericho Palms!)

Just because New York assembled an all-star team and danced to the division title doesn’t mean Theo (and you) should panic. Theo (and you) should start planning for a future without Big Papi but the current lineup built around Pedroia, Bay, Youkilis and Martinez (assuming everybody’s re-signed) is scarier than a Glenn Beck commentary.

Boston is a lock to win at least 90 in 2010. Even if David Ortiz’s bat continues to soften and Josh Beckett’s back continues to throb, the Red Sox, along with the Yankees and Angels, will be the cream of the league. You worry too much.

Me? I’ve got Bradley in right field, Carlos Zambrano on the mound, and a century-plus of losing on my mind. I worry.