Big Mike: My Secret Crush On The Red Sox

AJ, right now I’m feeling nothing but contempt for my Cubs. It’s like a marriage wherein one or the other partner must endure a stretch of loathing for her/his mate in order for the relationship to work out in the long run.

Hungry Jim Hendry didn’t move Milton Bradley during the winter meetings in Indy this week. Maybe he laid the groundwork for a surprise deal in January. It’s possible, but he’d better get it done ASAP because the organization’s off-season activity has screeched to a halt. There’s not much Hungry Jim can do while saddled with Gameboard’s $21 remaining salary.

How Cub-like — the team has the majors’ third highest payroll budget but must proceed like a small market team because so many guys are locked up in dumb-ass, NTC deals. And even if they weren’t NTC’s, most of the guys making big bucks on the Cubs wouldn’t be movable because they’re worth a fraction of their deals in the real world — that is, the world outside Hungry Jim’s fantasy baseball imagination.

Like many a spouse who goes through a period of loathing, I’m starting to get a wandering eye. The Red Sox look awfully good to me. They’re attractive, intelligent, ambitious. They’re nothing like my, ugh, guys.

The Red Sox have essentially the same payroll budget as the Cubs yet they spend oh-so wisely. The Red Sox farm system is productive, not only developing good, useful parts but imparting the proper mindset  and fundamentals to each and every kid within the system. And the Sox play in a decrepit, old-time ballpark from which they must squeeze every dime to keep up with the competition, just like the Cubs. Finally, both are adored by millions. The Red Sox and the Cubs are more than just their city’s pro baseball teams — they are national brands.

The differences between the two teams are personified by their bosses: Theo and Hungry Jim. How I’d love for Theo to be running the Cubs. You have no idea how lucky you are.

Let’s look at what he’s done this past week at Indy:

• They’re the frontrunner for Adrian Beltre, a brilliant gloveman who just might be a damned decent hitter in Fenway (I checked the home-road splits for his career and for the last several seasons — he’s a lot better away from Dodgers Stadium and Safeco Field;)
• They traded an aging Mike Lowell (Theo clearly was worried about Lowell’s surgically-repaired hip) for a high-ceiling catcher, Max Ramirez, pending medical exams on both players;
• They took a minimal-risk flyer on the recuperating, back of the rotation pitcher Boof Bonser;
• In trying to either retain Jason Bay or sign Matt Holliday, they’re bidding smartly against the Mets, rather than panicking (the way you-know-who would) and throwing U.S. mint at one or the other.

And just prior to the meetings, Epstein nabbed shortstop Marco Scutaro who will be the Sox’ most popular player next year, guaranteed.

Theo has a plan, as always. Hungry Jim has none, as always.

My guess is Beltre is signed by Christmas and Bay eventually re-ups. Man, that’s a good freakin’ lineup:

1B: Youkilis

2B: Pedroia

3B: Beltre

SS: Scutaro

LF: Bay

CF: Ellsbury

RF: Drew

C: Martinez

DH: Ortiz

David Ortiz may not be David Ortiz anymore, but even two-thirds of the old Papi is still better than any other full-time DH now in the league. Youk, Pedroia, Bay, Drew, and Martinez are locks to replicate their consistent yearly outputs (barring injury.) Beltre can do what he did in Seattle and still be an asset, flashing that spectacular leather — but again, I think he’s going to hit a Fenway .290 rather than a Safeco .265. And if Ellsbury continues to improve his K/BB ratio, he’ll become a productive offensive force.

That lineup, with Boston’s pitching, has 100 wins written all over it. Yeah, the Yankees may win 105 (now with Granderson in left — Cashman, for my money is almost as brainy as Theo) but the Sox will be the wild card. That’s all they need to be. Once in the playoffs, the team with the hot pitching advances. Why can’t it be Boston?

As for my boys, I iterate: they can win the NL Central with 85-90 wins or just as easily lose 90 games. I think I want to have an affair with the Red Sox.

Big Mike: Closing The Door On Papelbon

A trade involving Papelbon is not as unthinkable as you say. In fact, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he’s not wearing the Scarlet Hose come spring training.

I have a sneaking suspicion that Theo and his brain trust (including my personal deity, Bill James) value Mr. Drew a hell of a lot more than their brilliant closer. In fact, they really don’t worship closers as much as the rest of the baseball world does.

Look, Papelbon made six and a quarter mill this past season. An arbitrator will award him, oh, in the neighborhood of $10M if things go that far. I doubt if he’ll agree to a pre-arb hearing deal for less than $9M. Should he continue being Jonathon Papelbon (as opposed to becoming, say, Jeremy Papelbon who toils in obscurity in the Cubs system, natch) he’ll get $10-12M next offseason. Then after 2011, he’s gonna be in for a four or five year, $80-100M deal when he becomes a free agent. Boston ain’t never gonna go for that.

(True, Papelbon is entering his sixth season in 2010 but, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, he’ll still be shy of free agency after next year. His first season in 2005 was a partial one.)

The Red Sox have a mighty payroll but it’s unlikely they’ll want to commit such a huge fraction of it to the closer. The best bet right now is to turn him into some very usable parts — a Major League-ready prospect, an established position player or some creative combination.

You might ask, Who’d do that? The White Sox would. The Pale Hose are becoming less than infatuated with Bobby Jenks. He’d be a nice bridge between the Papelbon and Bard eras. The WSox though, would have to scuffle to find that position player the RSox would want.

Okay then. How about the Tigers? Detroit has a gaping hole at closer. Would they be willing to package Curtis Granderson for Papelbon? The Red Sox would listen if Jason Bay takes a hike. Shifting Granderson to left with Ellsbury remaining in center and Drew in right — wow! That’d be a defensive outfield worth seeing.

The point is, there’s always a market for a closer with gaudy statistics. And the Red Sox seem always confident that they can fill the role either from within or without. Hell, they can even pick up Billy Wagner’s option or buy him out and offer him a reasonable contract to come back.

In any case, now’s the time to deal Papelbon.

Big Mike: My Heart Bleeds For You, AJ

Poor AJ. His boys won 95 games in 2009. Apparently they were the wrong kind of wins. Or something.

I would have sawed off my right pinkie for 95 wins (not my left pinkie, though, since I’m trying to learn how to play the guitar.)

Are your fears for the Flaming Hose really warranted? Ortiz’s RBI were “quiet”? Bay “put up terrific numbers but… he’s a bit overrated”? Papelbon “gave up walks or hits and often had difficulty finishing batters off”? Ellsbury “can be pitched to by better pitchers”? Sheesh!

Whaddya want 105 wins?

I suppose the answer yes. Who wouldn’t want 105 wins? But no one — repeat, no one — can construct a team with the expectation that they’ll win 105. Not even the colossus that occupies new Yankee Stadium won 105 (of course, they did knock off 103 opponents but let’s not quibble.)

Have the Red Sox and their fans become — dare I say it — too demanding? It seems a short half decade ago, il Nazione del Calzini Rossi would have been thrilled to string up 95 fascisti. Now, 95 wins — bah! A bag of shells.

Were I the majordomo of the Sox, I wouldn’t worry too much about Papelbon’s walks or hits (his WHIP stood at a fine 1.15.) If Bay’s putting up terrific numbers, I’d say, Keep it up, Jason my boy. As for Ellsbury’s problems with better pitchers? Um, I’d guess the reason those guys are “better pitchers” is because they get most guys out, period.

I would fret a little about David Ortiz. He’s now 34 years old and weighs 230 pounds — at least that’s what the Red Sox web site claims. His bathroom scale might dissent. His best years are like a big ass — behind him. Then again, most AL teams would drool over the prospect of their DHs putting up mediocre Ortiz numbers. The Boston club really ain’t got much to worry about does it?

Sometimes fans and even GMs can overreact. Take last off-season. After the Cubs had led the National League with 97 wins, they went out and jumped in front of that speeding bus from LA. Fans boo-hooed as if the Cubs had gone sub-.500. Lou Piniella suggested that maybe the team needed a left handed bat to counteract teams loading up with righthanders against them — as the Dodgers did. Hungry Jim Hendry promptly turned over 40 percent of his roster, mainly in an effort to afford the $30M/3-year deal he bestowed upon Milton Bradley.

Pardon me while I have a seizure. Gurgle, gulp, ack-ack-ack. The memory of the Bradley signing is now a lesion in my brain that occasionally causes electrical disturbances among my remaining several hundred neurons. Ah — all better now.

Hendry dumped Mark DeRosa, Kerry Wood and Jason Marquis, all in an effort to squeeze Gameboard into the budget. The 2009 team could have used a nice fifth starter like Marquis (who, by the way, went to the all-star game.) They would have benefitted greatly from DeRosa’s 23 home runs, especially in Aramis Ramirez’s absence. Wood? Well, he stunk the joint up with the Tribe but he still was better than the execrable Kevin Gregg.

Be careful what you wish for, AJ. What’s Theo Epstein to do? Look for a centerfielder? Yeah, you could do better than young Jacoby. You could grab Carlos Beltran from the Mets and hope he thrives in Fenway. But at what cost?

Should Theo let Bay or Drew walk? Whaddya gonna do then? Play Joey Gathright and Rocco Baldelli?

In terms of planning, a good GM walks the tightrope. He (or she — Kim Ng, I hear, is in the running for the Padres job) can’t rely on an unchanging roster year after year. He also can’t swap his assets like so many baseball cards.

The Big Mike Philosophy of Building a Baseball Team, taught at the better universities around the country, holds that the GM should build his team with an aim to win 90 games. If your team is a consistent 90-game-winner, you’ll be battling for the division title every single year. And while the team may occasionally dip to 84-78, it’ll just as often rise to 96-66. That’s definite Champagne territory.

Now you may say 96 wins is fine for the Minnesota Twins or the Colorado Rockies but the Red Sox share a division with the Yankees. Okay. Let the Yanks spend $200M every year and win the East. It’s no dishonor to sneak into the playoffs via the Wild Card. In fact, the Red Sox of 2004 rode that ticket to their first World Series win in 10,000 years (that ancient triumph over the hated Jericho Palms!)

Just because New York assembled an all-star team and danced to the division title doesn’t mean Theo (and you) should panic. Theo (and you) should start planning for a future without Big Papi but the current lineup built around Pedroia, Bay, Youkilis and Martinez (assuming everybody’s re-signed) is scarier than a Glenn Beck commentary.

Boston is a lock to win at least 90 in 2010. Even if David Ortiz’s bat continues to soften and Josh Beckett’s back continues to throb, the Red Sox, along with the Yankees and Angels, will be the cream of the league. You worry too much.

Me? I’ve got Bradley in right field, Carlos Zambrano on the mound, and a century-plus of losing on my mind. I worry.

AJ: 2009 Red Sox Were Not What They Appeared

The 2009 Red Sox’ best feat was somehow winning 95 games in the AL East.  That’s not easy to do in the toughest division in baseball.  Yet, even the total of 95 was misleading.

First, the Red Sox racked up victories by going 16 -2 against the pitiful Baltimore Orioles, for example, but, didn’t fare as well against most opposing teams with winning records.  For instance, the Sox went 2-7 vs. the Texas Rangers;  4-5 vs. the Los Angeles Angels; and, 2-4 vs. the Seattle Mariners.  Even the Sox’ 9-9 record in games vs. the NY Yankees is distorted because the Sox went 8-0 vs. the Yanks during the first half(when A-Rod was often not in the lineup) but, the Yanks won 9 of the last 10 games vs. the Sox, and, looked dominant in doing so.

Second, the Sox record at home was 56-25, while, on the road, it was 39-42.  Most teams with championship potential don’t have a losing record on the road.

Third, the Sox hitting was very over-rated because, while they could rip mediocre pitching, they struggled BADLY against good pitchers.  By season’s end, observers were saying:  “This is a lineup that can be pitched to.”  Except for Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez, the Sox are fastball hitters who can’t hit breaking pitches.

If I have to summarize, it’s that the Sox have a tremendous VOID in their lineup once filled by David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, who led them to the 2004 and 2007 World Series titles.  Big Papi and Manny provided one of the most powerful, 1-2 punches in baseball history.  Yeah, I’d put them on a short list with Gehrig/Ruth and six or eight other duos.  Now, Ramirez is gone and Ortiz is a shell of his old self.  No one has replaced them.

So, image and reality clashed in many ways with the 2009 Red Sox.  Consider these specific examples:

1)  David Ortiz – Big Papi, after starting off with an unbelievably bad, two-month slump that had many – including me – thinking he was “done,” came back and ended with 28 HRs and 99 RBIs.  But, the stats are very misleading because, as Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe put it, they were about the “quietest” 99 RBIs imaginable and many were against the worst teams.  In big moments, against the good teams,  Ortiz usually failed to hit.

2)  Jason Bay – Bay put up terrific numbers (36 HRs, 119 RBIs) but, I think he’s a bit over-rated.  Why? He can’t hit breaking stuff.  Bay is a fantastic “mistake” hitter who belts fastballs, but, on many occasions, when facing quality pitching, Bay went down swinging.  (He was also streaky, hot at the start, a long slump, then, hot at the end). 

3)  Jonathan Papelbon - Papelbon is still an excellent closer, but, he had a much tougher time in 2009 than people have acknowledged.  In many of his saves, he gave up walks or hits and often had real difficulty finishing hitters off.  Batters can make contact vs. Papelbon much more easily than in the past, even when he’s throwing at 96 mph.  So, when he blew the save in Game 3 of the ALDS, I was not shocked.  I had watched him battle with erratic control all season.  He apparently changed his pitching motion to protect his arm, but, in any event, he’s not in the same place he was in 2007.  He also badly needs a new pitch to complement his fastball.

4) Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis – Viewed as the team’s core in 2008, they both had solid years, but dropped in performance, particularly hitting with men on base, compared to 2008.

5)  Jacoby Ellsbury -  He’s improving and had a good year, but, he’s still learning how to hit.  He, like others, can be pitched to by better pitchers.

6)  Josh Beckett – His fading performance in the past two months – into the playoffs – has still not been explained.  Suddenly, he lost his fastball command and couldn’t throw his curve consistently, but, after being treated for back spasms, the team denied Beckett had physical problems.  I think he had a tired arm the whole time.  It’s the second year in a row that Beckett ”broke down” season’s end and the team should handle him better. 

7)  JD Drew – Drew didn’t provide any boost in 09;  he never does. Despite his high OPS, Drew is a bust who’s not worth close to his $13 million a year salary.  I have so much to say about Drew that I’ll dedicate another blog to it.