AJ: Sox Should Consider Hermida For DH Duty

I just watched Jeremy Hermida belt a clutch, bases-loaded double against the Minnesota Twins to add to a Sox lead, and, it was one of the few, exciting hitting highlights of this young season.   Though the Sox had been clinging to a 3-2 lead, Hermida’s hit knocked in three runs, making it 6-2 – and, with this 2010 edition of the Sox, a one-run lead feels incredibly fragile.

The Red Sox desparately need more hitting.  (I know the season is only a week and a half old, but, I feel compelled to say: “…I told you so”)  It’s bad enough that they have no bona fide power hitter, but, their designated hitter, David Ortiz, is off to another horrible start and looks like he’s nearing the end of his playing days in Boston.   The Sox weaker hitting has meant, often, that their pitching has to be excellent for them to win.

Well, after today’s game vs. Minnesota, the Sox are 0-4 in games when they scored four runs or less and 4-0 in games when they scored more than four.   This has not surprised me;  in fact, its predictability has almost made it more painful.   The Red Sox have to scrape and claw for every run.  They look un-threatening.  If they don’t make changes, I see them struggling all year.

But…..there are a few signs of daylight.  One is Hermida, who has been hot at the plate.  Hermida, a newly-acquired, reserve outfielder, has gotten more at-bats as a fill-in than expected.  What’s struck me is how good Hermida looks at the plate.  He’s got a natural, smooth swing.  He goes with the pitch, hitting it to all fields.  He seems equipped to hit for contact and power. 

Hermida has looked a lot better than Ortiz.  I love Big Papi, but, unfortunately, he looks like he did last spring – displaying reduced skills, particularly slower bat speed.  Plus, he just looks tentative up there, often committing to a swing or “take” a split second late.  A few years ago, Papi could make contact with ease - often fouling off pitches with two strikes.   I hope Big Papi proves everyone wrong, but the odds look overwhelmingly tough now.

I never expected to view Hermida as even a mere possibility to back up Ortiz, but, the circumstances facing the Sox now help make the case.  First, I’d agree with other fans that Mike Lowell could be a part-time DH.  But, now, Lowell is riding the bench because the Sox have been unable to trade him.  After the Sox signed third-baseman Adrian Beltre, they had every expectation of trading Lowell by the end of spring training, but Lowell had to overcome injuries, and, got very limited time to play and show other teams what he could do.  Even with Lowell feeling better, the Sox seem to have un-stated reasons for not wanting to play Lowell.  So, who else could DH?  Not reserve player Billy Hall.  Not Jason Varitek.  Not Jed Lowrie, who’s recovering from mono right now.

So, if Ortiz keeps struggling a few more weeks, why not plug in Hermida as DH?   Right now, Hermida is one of the hottest hitters on the team.  He needs to play more – not less.

One of the Red Sox’ few weaknesses in recent years has been to allow under-performing players to stay in the starting lineup too long.  Witness John Smoltz last year; Eric Gagne in 2007; Julio Lugo for long stretches the past two years; Varitek during portions of the past two years, and others.   

In the meantime, could Jeremy Hermida be the real deal, or, will I look back on this blog and feel foolish?

AJ: Random Notes on Red Sox

Beckett Talks Progressing – If recent media speculation is true, the Red Sox will work out a new contract with pitcher Josh Beckett before the season begins in a few weeks.  Baseball writers, in different accounts, have reported that progress has been made in negotiations.  Beckett has said he wants to stay in Boston.  He’ll become eligible for free agency after this season.

While I like Beckett and hope things can work out eventually, I wish the Sox would not rush on this particular deal – as I wrote on this blog previously.  I feel strongly that because Beckett has “broken down” at the end of two consecutive seasons, the team should insist on seeing how he performs for a while this summer before sealing a deal.  Beckett has not only suffered injuries in the late 2008 and 2009 seasons, but, also, his arm has simply appeared weary by September.  The zip on his heater has faded and the bite on his curveball as diminished too.  So, why can’t the Sox say to Beckett:  We want you back, but, we want to sign the deal in August rather than now ?

Scrutiny of Big Papi Has Begun Already -  David Ortiz got off to a slow start at the plate in spring training, and, when he went 2 for 2 yesterday, including a home run, much attention was given to it.   Big Papi has not seemed thrilled to have baseball writers paying attention to every one of his at-bats during spring training – which is understandable.  He pointedly said he’s always been a slow starter hitting-wise.  How Ortiz handles the pressure to perform in April and May will undoubtedly affect his chances for success in what will likely be his last year on the Red Sox.  (His contract expires in the fall)  Last spring, the longer Ortiz’ slump went on, the worse he seemed to look for a while.  To his credit, he fought through the drought and hit well in the second half, although many of his hits came off the worst teams.

A few sportswriters have speculated that if Papi slumps again in April and May, the Red Sox might lose patience and replace him somehow.  The Sox put themselves in a jam with Ortiz because, if he slips, they have no good substitute for DH – assuming the team trades Mike Lowell, as expected.  If Big Papi hits half-decently, all will be OK, but, if not, the team may have to limit his at-bats, or, bench him — a delicate possibility given Ortiz’ special status as the key clutch hitter who led the Sox to the 2004 World Series and beyond.

Sox Bench Seems Stronger - Who is Tug Hulett?  Well, whoever he is, he’s belting the ball around lately for the Sox in spring training.  Hulett seems to have some pop, and, he’s not the only bench guy.  Josh Reddick, who had flashes of sharp hitting last year, has started on fire this spring.  I hope this guy makes it onto the roster.  A utility outfielder, Reddick really looks good at the plate.  Then, there  is utility infielder Billy Hall, who people seem to think highly of.  Hall can play almost every infield position!  Lastly, Jeremy Hermida, their reserve outfielder, has hit well in a few spring training games and could prove invaluable this season.

All in all, the Sox bench seems quite improved over the 2009 reserves.

Nomargate – Only in Boston.  Only in Boston would there have been the enormous attention given to Nomar Garciaparra’s signing a one-day contract with the Sox last week so that he  could announce his retirement from baseball from his old team.  Some were delighted to see Nomar back.  Others, like the Globe’s Dan Shaughnessy, played his “Scrooge” role blasting Nomar and calling the staged retirement a “fraud”.  He ripped Nomar for sitting on stage next to two Sox executives who he hated and who disliked him too — Theo Epstein and Larry Lucchino.   For the record, they all got along and it didnt’ seem a big deal.  But Shaughnessy and others played it out on talk radio and TV for a couple of days.  Callers weighed in for hours and hours about their grievances against Nomar for his actions in 2004 before he got traded.

It was a joke and a disgrace at the same time.  I don’t know why Nomar wanted to return that badly, but he did and the Red Sox went along with it….so,……who cares that much?  Secondly, I’m really sick of the distortion around Nomar’s departure from Boston.  Because of the incredibly disproportionate criticism heaped on Nomar during the summer of 2004, fans and media have forgotten all that he did in his previous seven years in Boston.  He was one of the best, most exciting ballplayers ever to come through Fenway Park and there was a reason Ted Williams was struck by him.  Nomar hit .372 in 2000 and, as his old teammate Lou Merloni recalls, that season included many, many line-drive outs.  Nomar was ON FIRE that year and unbelievable in several other years.  He hit .357 the year before, in 1999.  He was very close to 200 hits for six seasons.  He was, legitimately, compared to Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez for several seasons.  They were the “Big Three” shortstops.   Now, in Boston, too many people have forgotten Nomar’s seven good years;  they dwell on his last few months, when he was very unhappy and wanted to be traded – after he learned the Red Sox had considered trading him.   Yes, he didn’t handle it well.  Yes, he was horrible with the media.  Yes, he chose to not be candid with the press and public.    Yes, he sulked a bit.  BUT, he also had suffered a couple of significant injuries the two preceding years and was frustrated AND just because he had a bad ending doesn’t change how off-the-charts amazingly he performed for this first seven years.  He was an incredible player.   I don’t know what happened to Nomar.  No one seems to know.   After one injury, it seemed he was never the same.  Did he take steroids?  Who knows?

I’ll never forget watching him play, and, whatever his sins and flaws, he was, basically, a good guy.   So, I hope Boston fans can grow up a bit in the future.

Big Mike: Hermida’s A Smart Pickup

Further proof that Theo Epstein is brilliant — the acquisition of Jeremy Hermida.

 

I love this kid. He’s been playing in a park that kills him. Epstein bought low and there’s next to no risk. If he doesn’t work out, release him. I’d been hoping Hungry Jim Hendry would pick Hermida up for a couple of years now. But, no, he was too busy showering Milton Bradley and Aaron Miles with millions of dollars.

 

Jeremy Hermida may or may not work out for the Red Sox, but his acquisition is the difference between the Carmines (two World Series victories in the last six years) and the Cubs (zero World Series victories since proto-humans descended from the trees in the African savannah some four millions years ago.)

AJ: Red Sox Start New Quest To Catch Yankees

It was such a typical Theo Epstein move:   The day after the 2009 World Series, the Red Sox traded two minor-league pitchers to acquire Jeremy Hermida, an outfielder for the Florida Marlins who, so far, has not played up to initial expectations.

“This was not a blockbuster,” Epstein told the Boston Globe.  “This was a value trade, a chance to get a guy with unfulfilled potential at a reasonable cost.” 

Hermida, the 11th pick in the 2002 draft, who batted .259 with 13 HRs and 47 RBIs last year, will likely be a backup outfield for the Sox, who hope he can tap more of the talent that the Marlins had hoped would blossom.

Epstein is good at making these little “value” deals.  He talks about getting good “value” all the time.   Last year, for instance, Epstein liked the upside “value” of acquiring veteran pitchers John Smoltz and Brad Penny for relatively little money and risk on the chance one or both would pitch great.

Well, that didn’t work out too well, but, Theo likes the idea of getting a player previously viewed as “borderline” and, then, getting more out of that player in Boston.   For example, getting Rocco Baldelli as a utility outfielder for last year or Casey Kotchman as a firstbaseman for the second half.  Theo sees the “value” in JD Drew that isn’t even there.

Theo’s problem is that you cannot build a bona fide contending team solely with little “value” moves.  Once in a while, you need to get a star player – a real stud who can be a cornerstone to build a team around.  Right now, the Red Sox, without their old foundation of Manny Ramirez and a potent David Ortiz, lack a player with that that heft. 

Even if the Red Sox are able to re-sign power-hitter Jason Bay in left field, they’ll still need punch in their lineup, especially as insurance if the production from either Ortiz or veteran 3rd baseman Mike Lowell drops a bit.

It’s interesting.  I’ve thought a lot recently about how, despite the impressive success of Epstein and the current Red Sox management team in recent years, they’ve signed very few “stars” to big contracts.  I think, in some ways, this has been smart because they’ve brought up terrific players from the Sox farm system like Pedroia, Youkilis, Papelbon and Bard.  However, Epstein and Company inherited a team WITH Manny Ramirez and Pedro Martinez, both acquired by Dan Duquette (who deserves more credit than he gets for that, and, for getting Johnny Damon!)  Epstein smartly dealt for Ortiz, who turned out to be about 100 times more valuable than he imagined, and, yes, the Sox made their infamous Thanksgiving, 2003 “pitch” to get Curt Schilling and got Keith Foulke before 2004 as well.

I think that, sooner or later, Theo will have to make a BIG move or two to re-make the Red Sox, who seem stuck in neutral now.  Indicators suggest the BIG moves might not come until after 2010, when contracts for Ortiz, Lowell and pitcher Josh Beckett will expire.  Beckett is expected to play out the option in the last year of his contract in 2010, but, he and his agent want to talk to the Red Sox soon about how he fits into the team’s long-term plans.   Would the Sox consider trading Beckett now rather than wait until the end of 2010?  I don’t think it’s impossible, but, they’d have to find a good replacement for him, and, I think they’ll try to keep him around.

It seems Epstein may continue making some “value” deals to improve the 2010 Red Sox while hoping he can re-sign Bay.  Yet, right now, the Sox will fall way short of the New York Yankees in 2010 – in terms of talent.  While the Sox are trying to figure out how to hold onto their existing assets, the Yankees are so stacked that they’re considering whether to let go of either Hideki Matsui, who knocked in 6 runs in Game 6 of the World Series or Damon, who was one of their other World Series stars.   The Yankee lineup and pitching rotation is expected to very similar to their 2009 team -  BAD news for the Sox and the rest of baseball. 

In Boston, there has been much talk lately about how the Yankees’ acquisition of Mark Teixeira last off-season has made – and will continue to make – an enormous difference in the direction of these two rival teams.  Many Sox fans continue to obsess about how they feel the Sox blew it in negotiations with Teixeira, who took the Yanks’ higher offer.   I have  to admit Teixeira is damned good and helped get the Yanks to the Promised Land this year….but, I think he belongs on the Pinstripes.  He’s seems like such a serious, machine-like, nerdy guy.

Nevertheless, Theo and the Red Sox will have to get a stud like Teixeira, eventually, if they are to catch the Bombers, who, at the moment, seem well-positioned to  repeat once or twice.   They need a real star – not just “value” guys.