AJ: Theo Needs to Snap Out of Denial

Even though it’s early, I hope Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is busy brainstorming about changes rather than lingering in denial.  

I say “denial” because, yesterday, I read Epstein’s comments that the team simply has to play better baseball.  “What we can do is look inward, work our (rears) off, and return to the principles that have made us a solid organization, and have made these players who they are,” Epstein told the April 21st Boston Globe.  Epstein’s remarks implied the Sox have sufficient talent, and, if they, simply, start playing up to that talent, things will improve.

Well, I hate to say it, Theo, but, I don’t think your team has as much talent as you do, and, I’m not alone.  

The Red Sox hitting stinks so far.  They’ve had to struggle to win their past two games against the mediocre Texas Rangers after being swept by the Tampa Bay Rays.  Their lineup is filled with one mediocre hitter after another.  A recent caller to a radio show put it this way:  “We have (only) three hitters – three hitters!  He named Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez as the only good batters.  The rest are easy to pitch to, he said.

My view is close to that caller’s,  but, not quite as extreme.  Pedroia, Youkilis and Martinez do stand out because they can make contact in any count while most others in the lineup have been easy outs vs. half-decent pitching.   Nevertheless, what Theo Epstein won’t admit is that you can’t win a championship – or, for that matter, make the playoffs – when the newcomers to an already-weak-hitting lineup are Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron.   Not with David Ortiz fading fast, the departure of Jason Bay and benching (& planned trade of) Mike Lowell.  

You need a couple of stud hitters to compete in the AL East – guys like the Yanks’  Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez or the Rays’ Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria.   But, even though the Sox’ weak hitting led to the Angels sweeping them in the 2009 playoffs, Theo’s “answer” in the off-season was to sign pitcher John Lackey and the other newcomers, who he said would bolster the team’s “run prevention.”  I was among many who ripped that game plan, and said the Sox would lack hitting.

So, what will Theo and the Sox brass do now?  Will they acknowledge the team’s deficits, own up to their mistakes and start on a new path?  Or, will they stay stubborn and try to win with a depleted lineup while denying it’s bad all summer?

It’s interesting because Epstein and company have experienced only success since arriving about eight years ago.   They had a huge advantage of inheriting a team with Manny Ramirez and Pedro Martinez and Johnny Damon – and, with Theo’s signing of Ortiz, a platooning player for the Minnesota Twins in 2002,  turned into an unexpected, smash success that helped bring two World Series titles to Boston.  

Now, suddenly, Epstein must make very tough calls in the middle of this season — probably within weeks.  The first will be what to do with Ortiz, who is in the last year of his $13 million contract.  If Big Papi continues to not hit, it seems Epstein and manager Terry Francona will have to play him less and less until they’re forced to release him and eat his contract, or, to trade him somewhere – and, still eat his contract.   I say this because I cannot imagine Ortiz sitting on the bench happily for the rest of the year.

Next, Epstein has to decide if and how to commit to Victor Martinez beyond this year, when his contract expires.  Martinez has failed badly at throwing out (stealing) baserunners so far, and,  indications suggest he might not radically improve in this area.  If so, he could move to first base, but, then Youkilis would have to play third, and Adrian Beltre, one of his recruits, is there now.     

Epstein will have to decide what deal, if any, to make at the trading deadline.  Should the team give away players – like perhaps pitcher Clay Buchholz – to get a hitter like Adrian Gonzalez, or, perhaps concede the 2010 season and wait until the off-season to stock up on bats?

These are tough choices, especially in Boston, where fans in the past 25 years or so, have always expected at least a competitive team.  Right now, I think the current team will finish behind the Yankees and Rays and perhaps even slip to .500 status, but, its starting pitching seems good enough to prevent a losing record. 

Notice how gloomy I’m sounding after only three weeks?  Well, you need hitting to win, but the signs have been even worse!  Josh Beckett, who the Sox just signed to a new, four-year deal, has been quite unimpressive so far.  He’s 1-0 with 3 no-decisions and a 5.26 ERA, but, what’s more troubling is that he’s throwing with less velocity than the past few years.  (Beckett relies heavily on his fastball).  This has been unmentioned by Boston baseball writers so far, but, most of Beckett’s fastballs have been clocked at 93 mph – or a bit lower – rather than 96 mph – a common speed for Beckett in the past.  He’s continued his bad habit from late in 2009 of leaving fastballs over the plate, and, hitters are ready to smack them.   While Jon Lester has struggled in all three starts, I cannot believe he won’t find his stuff and be OK.  If not, the Sox record may plummet toward the Orioles’ results.

Another cause of concern beneath the radar?  Jonathan Papelbon.  While Papelbon has improved in his past two outings and increased his velocity a bit, his heater is lacking “giddy-up” — just as he lacked movement in the first part of 2009.   Last season, it took Papelbon a few months to find that “late life” in his fastball.  The difference now is that opposing hitters are much more ready to pounce on his heater.  Papelbon’s control has been so-so, as he often has had to throw repeated fastballs (fouled off) to put a hitter away rather than blowing the first few by someone — as he used to a few years ago.

Daniel Bard, the top-ranked setup pitcher now, has been fairly good, but, in only his second year, he still is learning, and, sometimes his fastballs catch too much of the plate, and, are hit hard.  Bard’s breaking stuff has improved, however.   The rest of the bullpen is a questionmark. 

So, how will Epstein and the Sox take the lemons and make lemonade somehow?  It’ll be interesting.  The odds appear stacked against this 2010 edition.

“We haven’t really done anything well, to be honest with you,” Epstein told yesterday’s Boston Globe.  “We’re not pitching, we’re not hitting, we’re not playing good defense. we’re not running the bases well.  So take your pick.”

OK, Theo.  I’ll add one more category:   The Red Sox GM has done a poor job assessing the talent on this 2010 team.    I hope he acquires more talent.

AJ: Thank God Papelbon Is Back!

The Red Sox’ team personality has become more boring during the past year or two.  The most colorful players from their 2004 and 2007 championship seasons are gone.  Their lineup includes mostly players who stick to business and don’t reveal much of their spontaneous, fun side within public view.

That’s why Red Sox fans should be relieved the team reached a contract agreement with stud closer Jonathan Papelbon last week. 

Papelbon signed a one-year, $9.35 million contract, making him the seventh-highest paid closer in baseball.  He’ll be eligible for free agency after 2011, and, Boston fans should enjoy him now because he’s likely to leave before or after that 2011 season.

Papelbon is argubly, the last (publicly) goofy, fun, spontaneous player left on the Red Sox.  Though he wasn’t in the group of “Idiots” that won in 2004, he would have fit in nicely, and, he has, in a way, seemed sort of a tie to that crazy, special time in Red Sox history.   I can easily imagine Papelbon doing those mini shots of Jack Daniels with Kevin Millar and others back in 2004.

Think of the colorful, entertaining players the Sox have lost:   Manny Ramirez, in the middle of the 2008 season.  Manny was anything but boring;  he was an “electric” ballplayer who could hit almost any pitcher at any time – plus, his off-field behavior kept things interesting.  Pedro Martinez was, in my view, the most exciting, compelling athlete to ever come through Boston – someone who expressed his individuality – in the moment – on and off the field.  The departed also include Millar, a fun-loving, key, uniting force in the 2004 clubhouse, and Johnny Damon, who played with such enthusiasm.  Then, there were the outspoken Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe and others.

On the team of current players who tend to spew predictable, cliched replies, Papelbon at least sprinkles in some surprising, humorous behavior. Once, in 2006, Papelbon cut his hair into a “Mohawk” modeled after Charlie Sheen’s “Wild Thing” character from Major League after losing a bet with teammate Kevin Youkilis.  Papelbon began filling the “crazy, funny guy” role, in earnest, when, after the Red Sox won the 2007 ALDS,  he began spontaneously dancing on the Fenway Park diamond – doing an Irish dance step – and the fans went crazy.  Papelbon repeated the dance after the ACLS and World Series wins, and it all culminated with the closer partying in the “rolling rally” parade celebration through the streets of Boston.   Papelbon was on a duckboat with the Dropkick Murphys band and he played air guitar, sang to the music, gestured to the crowd, and danced non-stop on that parade wherever the boats made a stop before the cheering fans.  Papelbon, appeared to savor every minute of it – and the fans loved him for it.  I had never seen any athlete in Boston throw so much energy into a public celebration of victory. 

Papelbon’s ritual run in from the Sox bullpen at Fenway Park always triggers good feelings from the collective fans on hand.  As the song “I’m Shipping Up to Boston” by the Dropkick Murphys blares on Fenway speakers, everyone watches Papelbon, in his regular ritual, give a fistbump to the cop outside the bullpen and begin his fast jog into the pitcher’s mound.   He goes into his familiar serious stare toward his catcher to get the sign and fires one blazing mid-to-upper 90s heater after another.

Usually, Papelbon doesn’t disappoint on the mound.  Even last year, when he struggled with his control and had to endure some long saves, he often blew a fastball by the last hitter to nail the game down.  

Papelbon’s pitching often looked different in 2009, partly because, in the first half of the year, he tried a new pitching motion that allowed him to use his legs more and preserve his arm.  While the motion reduced a bit of wear and tear, Papelbon was a bit more inconsistent.  Occasionally, he looked bad and some, including me, speculated about his arm condition.  Nevertheless, he was still damned good – and, by the last part of the season, he looked very sharp and more like his old self.  However, things fell apart for Papelbon in Game 3 of the ALDS, when he uncharacteristically, badly blew a save against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, ending the Sox’ season. 

Papelbon must shed a few of his bad habits from 2009, when he allowed far more walks than usual and often threw too many pitches to get many of his saves.  Papelbon sometimes had good movement on his heater, and, other times, uncharacteristically, lacked “giddyup.”  He threw, surprisingly, many very hittable fastballs down the middle that were whacked around with the game in the balance.

Papelbon, in a radio interview on “98.5 – The Sports Hub” – last week, said he’s been working out and feeling eager to start the 2010 season.  Papelbon has kept a videotape of his disastrous playoff outing that he watches repeatedly – for extra motivation – while he’s exercising.

Papelbon’s deal was reached just before he’d have gone to salary arbitration.  He’s been content to work  under one-year deals and also seems willing to head toward free agency after 2011, when he’d possibly demand a salary beyond what the Sox might want to pay him then, when he’d have less mileage left on his arm.   Papelbon takes pride in being one of the game’s best closers.  His hero is Yanks’ legend, Mariano Rivera.   Some speculate that Papelbon may wind up on the Yankees someday. 

It’s possible that 2010 may be Papelbon’s last in Boston.  If not, I strongly doubt he’d return after becoming a free agent at the end of 2011.

I hope, before Papelbon leaves Boston, that I see him do one more Irish dance as he celebrates another championship.

Big Mike: My Heart Bleeds For You, AJ

Poor AJ. His boys won 95 games in 2009. Apparently they were the wrong kind of wins. Or something.

I would have sawed off my right pinkie for 95 wins (not my left pinkie, though, since I’m trying to learn how to play the guitar.)

Are your fears for the Flaming Hose really warranted? Ortiz’s RBI were “quiet”? Bay “put up terrific numbers but… he’s a bit overrated”? Papelbon “gave up walks or hits and often had difficulty finishing batters off”? Ellsbury “can be pitched to by better pitchers”? Sheesh!

Whaddya want 105 wins?

I suppose the answer yes. Who wouldn’t want 105 wins? But no one — repeat, no one — can construct a team with the expectation that they’ll win 105. Not even the colossus that occupies new Yankee Stadium won 105 (of course, they did knock off 103 opponents but let’s not quibble.)

Have the Red Sox and their fans become — dare I say it — too demanding? It seems a short half decade ago, il Nazione del Calzini Rossi would have been thrilled to string up 95 fascisti. Now, 95 wins — bah! A bag of shells.

Were I the majordomo of the Sox, I wouldn’t worry too much about Papelbon’s walks or hits (his WHIP stood at a fine 1.15.) If Bay’s putting up terrific numbers, I’d say, Keep it up, Jason my boy. As for Ellsbury’s problems with better pitchers? Um, I’d guess the reason those guys are “better pitchers” is because they get most guys out, period.

I would fret a little about David Ortiz. He’s now 34 years old and weighs 230 pounds — at least that’s what the Red Sox web site claims. His bathroom scale might dissent. His best years are like a big ass — behind him. Then again, most AL teams would drool over the prospect of their DHs putting up mediocre Ortiz numbers. The Boston club really ain’t got much to worry about does it?

Sometimes fans and even GMs can overreact. Take last off-season. After the Cubs had led the National League with 97 wins, they went out and jumped in front of that speeding bus from LA. Fans boo-hooed as if the Cubs had gone sub-.500. Lou Piniella suggested that maybe the team needed a left handed bat to counteract teams loading up with righthanders against them — as the Dodgers did. Hungry Jim Hendry promptly turned over 40 percent of his roster, mainly in an effort to afford the $30M/3-year deal he bestowed upon Milton Bradley.

Pardon me while I have a seizure. Gurgle, gulp, ack-ack-ack. The memory of the Bradley signing is now a lesion in my brain that occasionally causes electrical disturbances among my remaining several hundred neurons. Ah — all better now.

Hendry dumped Mark DeRosa, Kerry Wood and Jason Marquis, all in an effort to squeeze Gameboard into the budget. The 2009 team could have used a nice fifth starter like Marquis (who, by the way, went to the all-star game.) They would have benefitted greatly from DeRosa’s 23 home runs, especially in Aramis Ramirez’s absence. Wood? Well, he stunk the joint up with the Tribe but he still was better than the execrable Kevin Gregg.

Be careful what you wish for, AJ. What’s Theo Epstein to do? Look for a centerfielder? Yeah, you could do better than young Jacoby. You could grab Carlos Beltran from the Mets and hope he thrives in Fenway. But at what cost?

Should Theo let Bay or Drew walk? Whaddya gonna do then? Play Joey Gathright and Rocco Baldelli?

In terms of planning, a good GM walks the tightrope. He (or she — Kim Ng, I hear, is in the running for the Padres job) can’t rely on an unchanging roster year after year. He also can’t swap his assets like so many baseball cards.

The Big Mike Philosophy of Building a Baseball Team, taught at the better universities around the country, holds that the GM should build his team with an aim to win 90 games. If your team is a consistent 90-game-winner, you’ll be battling for the division title every single year. And while the team may occasionally dip to 84-78, it’ll just as often rise to 96-66. That’s definite Champagne territory.

Now you may say 96 wins is fine for the Minnesota Twins or the Colorado Rockies but the Red Sox share a division with the Yankees. Okay. Let the Yanks spend $200M every year and win the East. It’s no dishonor to sneak into the playoffs via the Wild Card. In fact, the Red Sox of 2004 rode that ticket to their first World Series win in 10,000 years (that ancient triumph over the hated Jericho Palms!)

Just because New York assembled an all-star team and danced to the division title doesn’t mean Theo (and you) should panic. Theo (and you) should start planning for a future without Big Papi but the current lineup built around Pedroia, Bay, Youkilis and Martinez (assuming everybody’s re-signed) is scarier than a Glenn Beck commentary.

Boston is a lock to win at least 90 in 2010. Even if David Ortiz’s bat continues to soften and Josh Beckett’s back continues to throb, the Red Sox, along with the Yankees and Angels, will be the cream of the league. You worry too much.

Me? I’ve got Bradley in right field, Carlos Zambrano on the mound, and a century-plus of losing on my mind. I worry.

AJ: 2009 Red Sox Were Not What They Appeared

The 2009 Red Sox’ best feat was somehow winning 95 games in the AL East.  That’s not easy to do in the toughest division in baseball.  Yet, even the total of 95 was misleading.

First, the Red Sox racked up victories by going 16 -2 against the pitiful Baltimore Orioles, for example, but, didn’t fare as well against most opposing teams with winning records.  For instance, the Sox went 2-7 vs. the Texas Rangers;  4-5 vs. the Los Angeles Angels; and, 2-4 vs. the Seattle Mariners.  Even the Sox’ 9-9 record in games vs. the NY Yankees is distorted because the Sox went 8-0 vs. the Yanks during the first half(when A-Rod was often not in the lineup) but, the Yanks won 9 of the last 10 games vs. the Sox, and, looked dominant in doing so.

Second, the Sox record at home was 56-25, while, on the road, it was 39-42.  Most teams with championship potential don’t have a losing record on the road.

Third, the Sox hitting was very over-rated because, while they could rip mediocre pitching, they struggled BADLY against good pitchers.  By season’s end, observers were saying:  “This is a lineup that can be pitched to.”  Except for Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez, the Sox are fastball hitters who can’t hit breaking pitches.

If I have to summarize, it’s that the Sox have a tremendous VOID in their lineup once filled by David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, who led them to the 2004 and 2007 World Series titles.  Big Papi and Manny provided one of the most powerful, 1-2 punches in baseball history.  Yeah, I’d put them on a short list with Gehrig/Ruth and six or eight other duos.  Now, Ramirez is gone and Ortiz is a shell of his old self.  No one has replaced them.

So, image and reality clashed in many ways with the 2009 Red Sox.  Consider these specific examples:

1)  David Ortiz – Big Papi, after starting off with an unbelievably bad, two-month slump that had many – including me – thinking he was “done,” came back and ended with 28 HRs and 99 RBIs.  But, the stats are very misleading because, as Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe put it, they were about the “quietest” 99 RBIs imaginable and many were against the worst teams.  In big moments, against the good teams,  Ortiz usually failed to hit.

2)  Jason Bay – Bay put up terrific numbers (36 HRs, 119 RBIs) but, I think he’s a bit over-rated.  Why? He can’t hit breaking stuff.  Bay is a fantastic “mistake” hitter who belts fastballs, but, on many occasions, when facing quality pitching, Bay went down swinging.  (He was also streaky, hot at the start, a long slump, then, hot at the end). 

3)  Jonathan Papelbon - Papelbon is still an excellent closer, but, he had a much tougher time in 2009 than people have acknowledged.  In many of his saves, he gave up walks or hits and often had real difficulty finishing hitters off.  Batters can make contact vs. Papelbon much more easily than in the past, even when he’s throwing at 96 mph.  So, when he blew the save in Game 3 of the ALDS, I was not shocked.  I had watched him battle with erratic control all season.  He apparently changed his pitching motion to protect his arm, but, in any event, he’s not in the same place he was in 2007.  He also badly needs a new pitch to complement his fastball.

4) Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis – Viewed as the team’s core in 2008, they both had solid years, but dropped in performance, particularly hitting with men on base, compared to 2008.

5)  Jacoby Ellsbury -  He’s improving and had a good year, but, he’s still learning how to hit.  He, like others, can be pitched to by better pitchers.

6)  Josh Beckett – His fading performance in the past two months – into the playoffs – has still not been explained.  Suddenly, he lost his fastball command and couldn’t throw his curve consistently, but, after being treated for back spasms, the team denied Beckett had physical problems.  I think he had a tired arm the whole time.  It’s the second year in a row that Beckett ”broke down” season’s end and the team should handle him better. 

7)  JD Drew – Drew didn’t provide any boost in 09;  he never does. Despite his high OPS, Drew is a bust who’s not worth close to his $13 million a year salary.  I have so much to say about Drew that I’ll dedicate another blog to it.