AJ: Red Sox Should Trade for Gonzalez

Big Mike, you and I apparently agree on what Theo’s next move should be.  I support the idea of trading pitcher Clay Buchholz and centerfield Jacoby Ellsbury for Padres’ 1st baseman Adrian Gonzalez.

With Jason Bay gone, the Sox need for a slugger is now off-the-charts.  Moving Buchholz seems a bit less hard, to me, now than a year or two ago.  He’s had a shot at starting pitching in three seasons.  He’s obviously got some high-quality, raw talent.  His stuff is unusually good, particularly his changeup.   Yet, he’s still been inconsistent and some question his makeup  a bit and this seems to reduce the predictions of Buchholz evolving into a “sure-thing” 20-game winner.  There are still some doubts.  Given that and given his youth and inexperience alone, it’s not hard to put him in a trade for Adrian Gonzalez, especially when the Sox now have three ACE pitchers in their rotation. 

That leaves the question of Ellsbury.  This is more hotly debated around Boston, but, to me, I think Ellsbury has been somewhat over-rated by fans and media during most of his time in the big-leagues.  He’s exciting, steals a ton of bases and his good looks make him popular with young women at Fenway Park.  But Ellsbury is still only a half-decent hitter after being on the Sox since the end of 2007.   In fact, he’s not really that good a leadoff hitter.  I heard today his OBP was among the lowest-third in comparison to other leadoff hitters in the American League.  He has not yet learned how to draw walks – a critical flaw for a lead-off guy.  He can’t even take pitches very well, often unable to resist swinging at tougher pitches to hit.  He hasn’t learned how to make contact on different pitches, and, can be pitched to quite easily by the better pitchers.   (He hits fastballs better than breaking stuff)  The bottom-line is Ellsbury is more suited to hit low in the batting order.

Dustin Pedroia is a better leadoff hitter.  JD Drew is a better leadoff hitter, and Marco Scutaro is probably better too – I have not seen Scutaro hit much, but I believe that.  

Fielding wise, Ellsbury frequently makes spectacular catches in center, but, it’s a bit misleading.  Often, he’s late getting to the ball he’s catching miraculously.   His range is decent, but, not as good as it appears.  (He runs so fast after the ball that he looks good chasing almost everything)  I’m told that when Ellsbury is measured by fielding stats, he doesn’t fare as well as it appears.  He’s decent, but, Mike Cameron would be FAR better in center.

So, for me, trading Buchholz and Ellsbury for Gonzo would make sense and be a timely, excellent move right now.   Different baseball writers are reporting different speculative remarks and “nuggets” of information on a potential Sox-Padres move.  Gordon  Edes of ESPN/Boston reported that “a baseball source” told him the Sox wouldn’t trade  Buchhholz and Ellsbury for Gonzalez.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports Net had everyone buzzing with his story today saying that the Sox were “working hard” to try to eventually get Gonzalez, but, acknowledged, the deal may never develop.

Let’s recall that even with Jason Bay and Mike Lowell in 2009, the Red Sox hitting was quite weak at times against decent pitching, and, deteriorated by the end of the season.  In 2010, without Bay or Lowell – two of their better hitters last year – the VOID would stand out disturbingly.   If the Sox were to start the 2010 season now – without any new hitters – they’d have Ortiz, Drew, Scutaro, Cameron and Kotchman as their potential bottom of the order.  That group will NOT cut it for next year.   If the Sox don’t get Gonzalez, there have been reports of their interest in Adrian Beltre, but, it’s unclear they’d pay him what he wants.  There have been rumors they’ve considered the Nationals’ Nick Johnson at 1st base

I cannot believe the Red Sox, after making this mega-move to get Lackey, would let the 2010 season go down the drain due to such weak hitting throughout a chunk of their daily lineup.  Gonzalez would help prevent some of that, even though their hitting would still be RIDICULOUSLY SHORT of the Yankees.

I’m confident the Soxwill make moves to improve their hitting, but, who knows if they’ll get Gonzalez?  My hunch is they will get it done, eventually.

Big Mike, a note of clarification:  I think, from now on, I’ll try to point out when – in the role of a baseball writer – I might not agree with a move by Theo Epstein, but, in the role of a fan, I am OK with it.   I say this because I didn’t think Epstein probably should have offered Lackey a FIVE-year deal, but, you see, as a fan, I was just glad to get Lackey -and, my feeling is probably like yours at times:  It’s not my money!

Big Mike: Milton The Monster

Wrigleyville (the community of fans as opposed to the neighborhood around the ballpark) is abuzz with speculation about whom the Cubs will get in exchange for one Milton (no middle name) Bradley of Harbor City, California.

Shoot, I thought all mass murderers or assassins had middle names. Isn’t that what Milton Bradley is? For all the bile spewed in his name since his very first game at Wrigley Field as a Cub, Bradley has to rank among John Wayne Gacy and Richard Franklin Speck as a local villain.

Of course, he’s brought much of the odium on himself but the rage expressed at Bradley is alarming. I mean, jeez, he’s just a ballplayer, albeit one with a paranoiac streak and who can’t control his rages and alienates just about everyone he’s ever shared a shower room with. It’s not like he lied to the country to whip up war fever or is mad because taxpayers won’t pick up the tab for an eight-figure bonus he thinks he should get.

Still, don’t count me among the Bradley defenders. (Then again, are there any Milton Bradley defenders anywhere?) I’m one of those numbers-crunching stats geeks old-time baseball fans like to pillory. I’ll always look to a player’s BAbip, VORP, WARP2, OPS+, UZR, and occasionally his pH level rather than fairy tale attributes like “character,” “ability in the clutch,” and (ugh) “scrappiness.” I have no idea what a “gamer” is but I do know how many Runs Created each player on the Cubs roster was responsible for in 2009. And Milton Bradley is one fine ballplayer based on any metric you can name.

That said, there’s no place for him here next year. If you can find anybody who’ll disagree, then you ought to play the lottery.

Gameboard is owed $21M for both the 2010 and ’11 seasons. The other 29 GMs in MLB know Jim Hendry has to exile Bradley from Cubville. So you might think Hungry Jim is over a barrel. He may have to eat up to $10M of Milton’s remaining pay and accept some other team’s albatross in the bargain. You may be right. Yet, there’s always someone who thinks he can handle the other guy’s problems, especially if that problem is good for a plus-.375 on-base percentage. Might someone be willing to swap some usable talent for him?

The Mets are said to be sick to death of both Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran. The Rays are stuck with Pat Burrell’s big contract. The Blue Jays may want to rid themselves of Vernon Wells’ bloated contract. Then there are the Red Sox who always are on the lookout for hitters who produce, leaving others to fight among themselves over the Boy Scouts.

Some say Hendry ought to agree to a deal with the first team that offers to take Bradley off his hands, no matter the return. But reporters like Ken Rosenthal and Bruce Miles claim their sources tell them Hendry already has received more than courtesy calls regarding the wayward rightfielder. Even if Hendry takes his time to sort through whatever competing offers there may be, he has to close the book on Bradley before or at least early on in December’s general managers meeting. The Cubs absolutely cannot stand still as they did in the 2004-05 off-season while trying to exile Sammy Sosa. Not only did they get next to nothing back for a man who’ll waltz into the Hall of Fame, they were unable to pull the trigger on any other signings that might have actually improved their chances the next season. In the weeks leading up to Sammy’s foregone departure, other teams snapped up the likes of Beltran, Magglio Ordonez and even Roger Clemens. I’m getting aroused just thinking about any of those three on the Cubs.

Anyway, Hungry Jim has about five weeks, max, to peddle Bradley. If he doesn’t do the deed by then he may as well hang on to him, which means a lot of unneeded clubhouse drama next season. Whereas clubhouse drama doesn’t necessarily preclude the winning of the World Series, as the mid-70s A’s or late-70s Yankees proved, it doesn’t make the task any easier. And, it must be said, the 2010 Cubs will not compare favorably with either the of those champs.

Had I magic in the snap of my fingers, I’d put together a package of Carlos Zambrano, Milton Bradley and Sean Marshall for Beltran and Reyes. Everybody’s happy that way — the Mets get rid of a couple of guys whom they (wrongly) consider lacking and they get the stud pitcher and outfield masher they so crave. The Cubs, meanwhile, wave bye-bye to their most villified player since Todd Hundley as well as a guy whose mound blow-ups are becoming increasingly intolerable. Plus, they get a brilliant switch-hitting leadoff man shortstop and slugging centerfielder, neither of which they’ve had since the Fillmore administration. Sigh.

Will it happen? Hell no! But that’s what I love about the hot stove season — I can pretend it might.