AJ: Scutaro Is A Plus, but Hitting Still Needed

I think the Red Sox signing of Marco Scutaro improves the team at shortstop – and, overall.  Scutaro is a much better hitter than Alex Gonzalez and close to what Gonzalez was as a fielder.   How can his addition not help the team at least a bit?

Scutaro knows how to grind out at-bats;  apparently, he had a higher average number of pitches per at-bat than any other shortstop in baseball last year.  He reached a number of career-high hitting milestones on the Blue Jays last year – his first as an everyday shortstop – when he batted .282. with 12 homers, 60 RBIs and his highest ever on-base-percentage of .379, third among shortstops in the American League.

If you look at Scutaro’s career path, he seems to be one of those unusual players who has kept improving, gradually, as he’s played a bit more and gets closer to his mid- 30′s.  (He used to be a utility infielder).  He’s  34 now, but, the Sox signed him to a two-year deal, with an option for a third year.   This creates a bridge to when the Sox expect their young stud shortstop, Jose Iglesias, to be ready.

Hey look:  Scutaro, when playing for Oakland in in April, 2007, hit a three-run, walkoff home run off Mariano Rivera – so, that’s a solid credential Red Sox fans appreciate!

The signing of Scutaro creates much more uncertainty over Jed Lowrie’s future on the Red Sox.  Lowrie, who, not that long ago, was viewed as the potential shortstop of the future, is suddenly slated as a utility guy.  The Sox want him to prove he can play without injury.  He barely played in 2009 due to injury-related issues.

So, the Sox are set at short, but, what about the huge void in hitting that caused the ballclub to deteriorate in 2009?  Now, Theo Epstein’s options seem a bit reduced.   It seems he’ll have to over-pay free agent Jason Bay to return to the Sox or over-pay free agent slugger Matt Holliday, a client of Scott Boras.   I prefer Bay, who we know can handle Boston, to Holliday, who couldn’t perform that impressively in Oakland.   Holliday earned  his stripes in Colorado – playing at Coors Field.  I’m just not as impressed with that part of his career.   I think Holliday, now on St. Louis,  is over-rated – period.  I hope I’m wrong, if he winds up on the Sox.

Supposedly, the Seattle Mariners are making a serious run at Bay and we might know more on that by the Winter Meetings.  My strong hunch is that the Red Sox will sign Bay or Holliday – not enthusiastically, but, feeling enormous pressure to ensure the presence of at least one slugger in their lineup.   Their problem:  They really need TWO hitters.   My guess here is that they might try to add a decent-hitting third-baseman – as ESPN’s Peter Gammons was speculating in an article for “ESPN Boston.”  Gammons wrote: “They are looking to see what happens in the third-base market, if Chone Figgins, Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa or Joe Crede falls.”

I hope the Sox plan to add another good hitter to their lineup.

The Sox are, apparently, willing to consider trading Mike Lowell, and eating half his salary.   They’re worried whether Lowell can recover sufficiently from a hip injury to get enough of his mobility back in the field.  If the Sox lose Lowell, it will be a HUGE loss in their clubhouse because he’s one of the team’s most respected players.

Even if they get a decent-hitting, new 3rd baseman – which, I may favor – I worry it’d not be nearly enough to meet the team’s hitting needs.  First, Lowell, even with his injury-related woes, is a damned good hitter, so, what will the upgrade be?

I’m afraid the Sox, assuming they sign Bay or Holliday,  will try to sell us the idea that with Victor Martinez now around all year – plus Scutaro and maybe this new imaginary 3rd baseman – that that will amount to enough hitting.   Yet, it probably will not be enough to compete with the Yankees, and, even the Rays.  

The Red Sox, unless they sign the Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera, will start 2010 without a bona fide “star” slugger in their lineup – and that’s a problem.   I’d argue that most teams need at least one star to carry a big part of the load.  The Sox have a group of very good players, but, still, miss Manny.

As for the Roy Halliday rumors, I am very curious if the Red Sox remain serious contenders for him.   I am very reluctant to trade Clay Buchholz for anyone — except, maybe, Halliday, if he’s really healthy and likely to have a few more good years in that arm.    I think the Sox are smart to hang onto their prospect, Casey Kelley, who, the Blue Jays reportedly want included in a deal for Halliday, along with Buchholz.   The unstated factor here is whether the Sox view Josh Beckett as part of their future.  If not, it makes a Halliday deal MUCH more possible. 

In recent days, the Red Sox have parted ways with Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, and, will have to add relief pitching to compensate.

Big Mike: Big Name? Big Deal.

Okay, the Cubs are gonna announce today that Rudy Jaramillo is coming aboard as the highest-paid hitting coach in the game. North Siders are now forming lines in front of the Wrigley box office for their 2010 World Series tix.

As I’ve indicated before, Hungry Jim Hendry loves — loves — big names. In the tight little world of hitting coaches there is no bigger name than Jaramillo’s. Will his hiring mean a goddamn thing in the standings?

Jaramillo has been the batting pedagogue at Texas since the early 90s. His charges have won 17 Silver Slugger awards and four MVPs. Bruce Levine credits Jaramillo with jump-starting the careers of Sammy Sosa, Mark DeRosa, Gary Mathews Jr., and Milton Bradley although, if memory serves me correctly, Sosa had a fair season or two with the Cubs before he closed out his career with the Rangers.

And therein lies my point. When you traffic in Big Names, the hyperbole has to match — even if it’s utter bullshit. The truth is, no one has any idea what effect Jaramillo has on hitters other than to make sure they don’t lose their way from the dugout to home plate.

What I do know is that the Ballpark in Arlington (could they possibly have come up with a more generic name?) is one of the top hitters’ havens in the bigs. According to ESPN’s 2009 MLB Ballpark Factors study, the BinA ranked in the upper quarter of parks in terms of increasing run scoring. And it ranked third only to Angels Stadium and that new telephone booth in the Bronx in home runs.

In addition, three of those four aforementioned MVP plaques were copped by Alex Rodriguez and Juan Gonzalez, neither of whom, I’d wager, was in dire need of a hitting coach.

So methinks the beckoning fences of the Arlington playlot and the innate abilities of his pupils had as much or more to do with the Rangers’ bat-swinging success than the soothing encomiums of one Rudy Jaramillo.

I also suspect that if the Cubs score one run more in 2010 than they did in 2009, Jaramillo will be hailed as the second coming of James Clerk Maxwell. Such are the rewards of possessing a Big Name.

Big Mike: My Heart Bleeds For You, AJ

Poor AJ. His boys won 95 games in 2009. Apparently they were the wrong kind of wins. Or something.

I would have sawed off my right pinkie for 95 wins (not my left pinkie, though, since I’m trying to learn how to play the guitar.)

Are your fears for the Flaming Hose really warranted? Ortiz’s RBI were “quiet”? Bay “put up terrific numbers but… he’s a bit overrated”? Papelbon “gave up walks or hits and often had difficulty finishing batters off”? Ellsbury “can be pitched to by better pitchers”? Sheesh!

Whaddya want 105 wins?

I suppose the answer yes. Who wouldn’t want 105 wins? But no one — repeat, no one — can construct a team with the expectation that they’ll win 105. Not even the colossus that occupies new Yankee Stadium won 105 (of course, they did knock off 103 opponents but let’s not quibble.)

Have the Red Sox and their fans become — dare I say it — too demanding? It seems a short half decade ago, il Nazione del Calzini Rossi would have been thrilled to string up 95 fascisti. Now, 95 wins — bah! A bag of shells.

Were I the majordomo of the Sox, I wouldn’t worry too much about Papelbon’s walks or hits (his WHIP stood at a fine 1.15.) If Bay’s putting up terrific numbers, I’d say, Keep it up, Jason my boy. As for Ellsbury’s problems with better pitchers? Um, I’d guess the reason those guys are “better pitchers” is because they get most guys out, period.

I would fret a little about David Ortiz. He’s now 34 years old and weighs 230 pounds — at least that’s what the Red Sox web site claims. His bathroom scale might dissent. His best years are like a big ass — behind him. Then again, most AL teams would drool over the prospect of their DHs putting up mediocre Ortiz numbers. The Boston club really ain’t got much to worry about does it?

Sometimes fans and even GMs can overreact. Take last off-season. After the Cubs had led the National League with 97 wins, they went out and jumped in front of that speeding bus from LA. Fans boo-hooed as if the Cubs had gone sub-.500. Lou Piniella suggested that maybe the team needed a left handed bat to counteract teams loading up with righthanders against them — as the Dodgers did. Hungry Jim Hendry promptly turned over 40 percent of his roster, mainly in an effort to afford the $30M/3-year deal he bestowed upon Milton Bradley.

Pardon me while I have a seizure. Gurgle, gulp, ack-ack-ack. The memory of the Bradley signing is now a lesion in my brain that occasionally causes electrical disturbances among my remaining several hundred neurons. Ah — all better now.

Hendry dumped Mark DeRosa, Kerry Wood and Jason Marquis, all in an effort to squeeze Gameboard into the budget. The 2009 team could have used a nice fifth starter like Marquis (who, by the way, went to the all-star game.) They would have benefitted greatly from DeRosa’s 23 home runs, especially in Aramis Ramirez’s absence. Wood? Well, he stunk the joint up with the Tribe but he still was better than the execrable Kevin Gregg.

Be careful what you wish for, AJ. What’s Theo Epstein to do? Look for a centerfielder? Yeah, you could do better than young Jacoby. You could grab Carlos Beltran from the Mets and hope he thrives in Fenway. But at what cost?

Should Theo let Bay or Drew walk? Whaddya gonna do then? Play Joey Gathright and Rocco Baldelli?

In terms of planning, a good GM walks the tightrope. He (or she — Kim Ng, I hear, is in the running for the Padres job) can’t rely on an unchanging roster year after year. He also can’t swap his assets like so many baseball cards.

The Big Mike Philosophy of Building a Baseball Team, taught at the better universities around the country, holds that the GM should build his team with an aim to win 90 games. If your team is a consistent 90-game-winner, you’ll be battling for the division title every single year. And while the team may occasionally dip to 84-78, it’ll just as often rise to 96-66. That’s definite Champagne territory.

Now you may say 96 wins is fine for the Minnesota Twins or the Colorado Rockies but the Red Sox share a division with the Yankees. Okay. Let the Yanks spend $200M every year and win the East. It’s no dishonor to sneak into the playoffs via the Wild Card. In fact, the Red Sox of 2004 rode that ticket to their first World Series win in 10,000 years (that ancient triumph over the hated Jericho Palms!)

Just because New York assembled an all-star team and danced to the division title doesn’t mean Theo (and you) should panic. Theo (and you) should start planning for a future without Big Papi but the current lineup built around Pedroia, Bay, Youkilis and Martinez (assuming everybody’s re-signed) is scarier than a Glenn Beck commentary.

Boston is a lock to win at least 90 in 2010. Even if David Ortiz’s bat continues to soften and Josh Beckett’s back continues to throb, the Red Sox, along with the Yankees and Angels, will be the cream of the league. You worry too much.

Me? I’ve got Bradley in right field, Carlos Zambrano on the mound, and a century-plus of losing on my mind. I worry.