Big Mike: My Secret Crush On The Red Sox

AJ, right now I’m feeling nothing but contempt for my Cubs. It’s like a marriage wherein one or the other partner must endure a stretch of loathing for her/his mate in order for the relationship to work out in the long run.

Hungry Jim Hendry didn’t move Milton Bradley during the winter meetings in Indy this week. Maybe he laid the groundwork for a surprise deal in January. It’s possible, but he’d better get it done ASAP because the organization’s off-season activity has screeched to a halt. There’s not much Hungry Jim can do while saddled with Gameboard’s $21 remaining salary.

How Cub-like — the team has the majors’ third highest payroll budget but must proceed like a small market team because so many guys are locked up in dumb-ass, NTC deals. And even if they weren’t NTC’s, most of the guys making big bucks on the Cubs wouldn’t be movable because they’re worth a fraction of their deals in the real world — that is, the world outside Hungry Jim’s fantasy baseball imagination.

Like many a spouse who goes through a period of loathing, I’m starting to get a wandering eye. The Red Sox look awfully good to me. They’re attractive, intelligent, ambitious. They’re nothing like my, ugh, guys.

The Red Sox have essentially the same payroll budget as the Cubs yet they spend oh-so wisely. The Red Sox farm system is productive, not only developing good, useful parts but imparting the proper mindset  and fundamentals to each and every kid within the system. And the Sox play in a decrepit, old-time ballpark from which they must squeeze every dime to keep up with the competition, just like the Cubs. Finally, both are adored by millions. The Red Sox and the Cubs are more than just their city’s pro baseball teams — they are national brands.

The differences between the two teams are personified by their bosses: Theo and Hungry Jim. How I’d love for Theo to be running the Cubs. You have no idea how lucky you are.

Let’s look at what he’s done this past week at Indy:

• They’re the frontrunner for Adrian Beltre, a brilliant gloveman who just might be a damned decent hitter in Fenway (I checked the home-road splits for his career and for the last several seasons — he’s a lot better away from Dodgers Stadium and Safeco Field;)
• They traded an aging Mike Lowell (Theo clearly was worried about Lowell’s surgically-repaired hip) for a high-ceiling catcher, Max Ramirez, pending medical exams on both players;
• They took a minimal-risk flyer on the recuperating, back of the rotation pitcher Boof Bonser;
• In trying to either retain Jason Bay or sign Matt Holliday, they’re bidding smartly against the Mets, rather than panicking (the way you-know-who would) and throwing U.S. mint at one or the other.

And just prior to the meetings, Epstein nabbed shortstop Marco Scutaro who will be the Sox’ most popular player next year, guaranteed.

Theo has a plan, as always. Hungry Jim has none, as always.

My guess is Beltre is signed by Christmas and Bay eventually re-ups. Man, that’s a good freakin’ lineup:

1B: Youkilis

2B: Pedroia

3B: Beltre

SS: Scutaro

LF: Bay

CF: Ellsbury

RF: Drew

C: Martinez

DH: Ortiz

David Ortiz may not be David Ortiz anymore, but even two-thirds of the old Papi is still better than any other full-time DH now in the league. Youk, Pedroia, Bay, Drew, and Martinez are locks to replicate their consistent yearly outputs (barring injury.) Beltre can do what he did in Seattle and still be an asset, flashing that spectacular leather — but again, I think he’s going to hit a Fenway .290 rather than a Safeco .265. And if Ellsbury continues to improve his K/BB ratio, he’ll become a productive offensive force.

That lineup, with Boston’s pitching, has 100 wins written all over it. Yeah, the Yankees may win 105 (now with Granderson in left — Cashman, for my money is almost as brainy as Theo) but the Sox will be the wild card. That’s all they need to be. Once in the playoffs, the team with the hot pitching advances. Why can’t it be Boston?

As for my boys, I iterate: they can win the NL Central with 85-90 wins or just as easily lose 90 games. I think I want to have an affair with the Red Sox.

AJ: Scutaro Is A Plus, but Hitting Still Needed

I think the Red Sox signing of Marco Scutaro improves the team at shortstop – and, overall.  Scutaro is a much better hitter than Alex Gonzalez and close to what Gonzalez was as a fielder.   How can his addition not help the team at least a bit?

Scutaro knows how to grind out at-bats;  apparently, he had a higher average number of pitches per at-bat than any other shortstop in baseball last year.  He reached a number of career-high hitting milestones on the Blue Jays last year – his first as an everyday shortstop – when he batted .282. with 12 homers, 60 RBIs and his highest ever on-base-percentage of .379, third among shortstops in the American League.

If you look at Scutaro’s career path, he seems to be one of those unusual players who has kept improving, gradually, as he’s played a bit more and gets closer to his mid- 30′s.  (He used to be a utility infielder).  He’s  34 now, but, the Sox signed him to a two-year deal, with an option for a third year.   This creates a bridge to when the Sox expect their young stud shortstop, Jose Iglesias, to be ready.

Hey look:  Scutaro, when playing for Oakland in in April, 2007, hit a three-run, walkoff home run off Mariano Rivera – so, that’s a solid credential Red Sox fans appreciate!

The signing of Scutaro creates much more uncertainty over Jed Lowrie’s future on the Red Sox.  Lowrie, who, not that long ago, was viewed as the potential shortstop of the future, is suddenly slated as a utility guy.  The Sox want him to prove he can play without injury.  He barely played in 2009 due to injury-related issues.

So, the Sox are set at short, but, what about the huge void in hitting that caused the ballclub to deteriorate in 2009?  Now, Theo Epstein’s options seem a bit reduced.   It seems he’ll have to over-pay free agent Jason Bay to return to the Sox or over-pay free agent slugger Matt Holliday, a client of Scott Boras.   I prefer Bay, who we know can handle Boston, to Holliday, who couldn’t perform that impressively in Oakland.   Holliday earned  his stripes in Colorado – playing at Coors Field.  I’m just not as impressed with that part of his career.   I think Holliday, now on St. Louis,  is over-rated – period.  I hope I’m wrong, if he winds up on the Sox.

Supposedly, the Seattle Mariners are making a serious run at Bay and we might know more on that by the Winter Meetings.  My strong hunch is that the Red Sox will sign Bay or Holliday – not enthusiastically, but, feeling enormous pressure to ensure the presence of at least one slugger in their lineup.   Their problem:  They really need TWO hitters.   My guess here is that they might try to add a decent-hitting third-baseman – as ESPN’s Peter Gammons was speculating in an article for “ESPN Boston.”  Gammons wrote: “They are looking to see what happens in the third-base market, if Chone Figgins, Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa or Joe Crede falls.”

I hope the Sox plan to add another good hitter to their lineup.

The Sox are, apparently, willing to consider trading Mike Lowell, and eating half his salary.   They’re worried whether Lowell can recover sufficiently from a hip injury to get enough of his mobility back in the field.  If the Sox lose Lowell, it will be a HUGE loss in their clubhouse because he’s one of the team’s most respected players.

Even if they get a decent-hitting, new 3rd baseman – which, I may favor – I worry it’d not be nearly enough to meet the team’s hitting needs.  First, Lowell, even with his injury-related woes, is a damned good hitter, so, what will the upgrade be?

I’m afraid the Sox, assuming they sign Bay or Holliday,  will try to sell us the idea that with Victor Martinez now around all year – plus Scutaro and maybe this new imaginary 3rd baseman – that that will amount to enough hitting.   Yet, it probably will not be enough to compete with the Yankees, and, even the Rays.  

The Red Sox, unless they sign the Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera, will start 2010 without a bona fide “star” slugger in their lineup – and that’s a problem.   I’d argue that most teams need at least one star to carry a big part of the load.  The Sox have a group of very good players, but, still, miss Manny.

As for the Roy Halliday rumors, I am very curious if the Red Sox remain serious contenders for him.   I am very reluctant to trade Clay Buchholz for anyone — except, maybe, Halliday, if he’s really healthy and likely to have a few more good years in that arm.    I think the Sox are smart to hang onto their prospect, Casey Kelley, who, the Blue Jays reportedly want included in a deal for Halliday, along with Buchholz.   The unstated factor here is whether the Sox view Josh Beckett as part of their future.  If not, it makes a Halliday deal MUCH more possible. 

In recent days, the Red Sox have parted ways with Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, and, will have to add relief pitching to compensate.

AJ: I Predict Papelbon Will Remain for 2010

Big Mike, I agree the Red Sox view Jonathan Papelbon’s time as  The Closer is limited because of his eligibility for free agency after the 2011 season.  I disagree with you on the odds for him to be traded before 2010.  I think the Sox would prefer to get one more excellent year out of Papelbon in 2010.  Then, before or during 2011, or, immediately after 2011,  I think they’ll part ways with Pap.   And, after 2010 – with more wear and tear on Pap’s arm, they might find that a good time to deal him.   How his arm holds up is key..

First, Papelbon, despite a “bumpier” ride to another great season in 2009 — except for hit disastrous blown save in the playoffs — finished very strong in the last six weeks of the season, and, overall, posted one of the better records for closers in baseball.   He spent part of the season trying to adjust to a new pitching motion, and, I think that reduced his effectiveness at times.   Second, and this is a major factor, there is not another pitcher ready to replace Papelbon.  Daniel Bard, by all appearances, will eventually replace Papelbon, but, Bard, who throws at 100 mph,  showed, toward the end of the season, he still needed to work on his pitching - such as improving his fastball location to prevent late-inning home runs.  He needs more experience, but, signs suggest that by the end of 2010 as the team’s “8th inning” guy again, Bard, by then, might be ready to take over for Papelbon. 

In my previous blog, I mentioned the Sox, however, might think about moving Papelbon before 2010 – simply because he seemed, to me, one of the only players who they could even think about moving.   I don’t think the Sox would trade Papelbon before 2010 unless circumstances are evolving very unfavorably for them — i.e. If they lose Jason Bay to free agency, then, for whatever reasons, they cannot sign either Adrian Gonazalez or Matt Holliday, both sluggers, to replace Bay in the outfield.  Then, perhaps Theo Epstein and Sox executives might feel much more pressure to make some splash before Spring Training.

By the way, back in early 2003, with Theo Epstein his first year as GM, the Sox tried a “closer by committee” approach – which turned out to be a diaster.  (Before 2004, they got Keith Foulke as their closer and he played a critical role in the team winning the World Series)   I know Bill James was among a group consulted in those early days of designing a bullpen, but James later denied advocating for a “closer by committee.”  I think James supported the notion that there could be benefits of a closer pitching earlier than the ninth inning — if and when key situations arose.

Personally, I hated that “Closer by Committee” idea.  Wathching Papelbon embrace his role and benefit from the rituals and routine has helped convince me of that.  Mariono Rivera offers compelling signs of benefits to The Closer tradition too.

 Big Mike,  your discussion of the Red Sox reminded me, again, of the strange, new dilemmas they might face in 2010.  My guess is that the Sox position is:  If they cannot sign Jason Bay, they simply MUST sign Adrian Gonzalez, or, perhaps, even Matt Holliday.  Otherwise, the team would have an embarrassing, near-unprecedented lack of power in their hitting lineup, and, a lack of “star power.”   It’d be a rather boring lineup – like in 2009 – of good, hardworking players, who are fairly low-key, free of controversy and a bit bland, particularly in the dog days of summer as they’re going down quietly to young pitchers on dry days of August.

As I said, unless Theo Epstein and Sox owership get very creative and pull some rabbits out of their hats, 2010 may look a lot like 2009.   And they might feel an incentive to keep Papelbon, one of their only exciting “stud” players left, for one more season.  Otherwise, their “excitement gap” will be disturbingly high.   Will fans keep flocking to Fenway?  (Yes)