AJ: Rays Race Past Struggling Red Sox

It’s hard to find a bright spot about the Red Sox in this young season.  

Let’s see:  Dustin Pedroia is hitting great – at a .367 clip – and already has five home runs.  John Lackey, has pitched well in his first two starts.  That’s about it.

The Sox are 4-8.  They’ve lost three games in a row to the Tampa Bay Rays, and looked outclassed in every phase of the game.  Their hitting is as bad as many fans feared.  Their bullpen is very shaky.  Their best starter, Jon Lester, has pitched poorly in his first three outings.  Even their much-vaunted defense – supposed to bring the “run-prevention” that GM Theo Epstein promised, has been absent.  In fact, newcomer Mike Cameron, normally an outstanding glove man, made a critical error last night that rattled his pitcher, Clay Buchholz, and became a turning point in the game.  Catcher Victor Martinez and backup catcher Jason Varitek cannot throw out anyone attempting to steal a base.  (The Rays, typically, have stolen bases effortlessly) I could go on…….

Just how bad are the 2010 Red Sox?  It’s way too early, of course, but, I fear that in this particular season, the early signs might be indicative of what to expect for much of this season.   This team seems to have too many weaknesses to overcome in order to compete with the NY Yankees or the Rays, who both seem far superior to the Sox right now.

This team, as I feared, has such a mediocre hitting lineup that its pitching must be superb if it is to win many games.  Once a pitcher gets past Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Victor Hernandez, there is no one who is that “threatening” at the plate.  So, far, David Ortiz, now hitting .171, and J.D. Drew, hitting .132, have been a piece of cake for opposing pitchers.  The Red Sox, suddenly, seem to have a National League hitting cast.  It won’t cut it in the American League East, or, against other good AL teams.

I heard today the Red Sox had not has this bad a start since the late 1990s.  With each passing game, I appreciate what Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz achieved here in their heyday even more.  Last year, Jason Bay was so on fire for a chunk of the season that it distracted fans from the loss of Ramirez & Big Papi.  Now, with Bay gone, Ortiz looking “done” so far and no other slugger, the Red Sox look so embarrasingly bad that, if the trend continues, GM Theo Epstein, CEO Larry Lucchino and owner John Henry might have to make some very tough decisions earlier than anticipated.  Will they have to “sacrifice” this year while waiting for their young talent to mature by 2011?  How will they respond to fan pressure to make a deal for a big bat?  After all, they have a terrific pitching staff — Are they going to let it go to waste?

Then, there is the matter of Clay Buccholz and if he, finally, can overcome mental lapses to become the pitcher so many believe he can.  On Saturday night, Buccholz was his typical self – After Cameron made a bad error instead of recording the third out of the first inning, Buchholz became rattled and gave up a double to Pat Burrell with the bases loaded.  Buchholz looked increasingly shaky as he got into trouble — which is his pattern.  When he gives up hits or walks, Buchholz still struggles with a rookie-type loss of confidence.  Often, one senses that if he could maintain his composure and believe in his pitches, he’d endure these moments much easier.  Peter Gammons, now a commentator for NESN, which televises the Sox games, said he still thinks Buchholz has first-rate “stuff” that could make him an elite pitcher.  But, I think time is running out a bit for Buchholz in Boston.  If he cannot improve his focus this year, I think he may not even remain on the team.  On the other hand, after the first inning Saturday, he calmed down, and was displaying his excellent stuff until leaving after five innings.  So, which Buchholz will emerge in 2010?

A final point:  I heard a caller on a sports radio show a day or two ago who spoke for many when he blurted out:  “This team is so boring…..”

Like I said, these first 12 games of mediocrity have made me realize – again – how spoiled we Red Sox fans have become in the past ten years or so.  We’ve always had someone exciting to cheer on – whether Pedro, Manny, or Big Papi.  Suddenly, just the thought of an uneventful season feels unbearable.

At least, it’s still early……I can’t imagine the Red Sox out of contention!!! 

  

 

 

 

 

 

AJ: Observations After Red Sox Opener

For one game, at least, the Red Sox hitters got the job done! 

The Sox won a game against C.C. Sabathia and the New York Yankees on a night when Sox starter, Josh Beckett, pitched poorly.   These sort of events occur rarely, so, I try to savor them when they do.

All the talk about the Sox’ pitching and “run prevention” seemed, for the most part, irrelevant.   That’s the beauty of the season beginning:  We throw out all the speculation and predictions and see what teams have to offer.

The Red Sox newcomers – Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron – all contributed to the win.  This seemed a particularly fortunate twist because, early success can really help new players in Boston, not the easiest place to get acclimated in.  Beltre got a big, clutch hit to tie the game 5-5.  Scutaro and Cameron each got two hits.  All three fielded fine, particularly Cameron, who made a few good catches in center.

So, what am I thinking as the Sox and Yanks prepare for Game Two tonight?

First, I’m in a tiny minority who were not pleased by yesterday’s news that the Sox signed Becket to a new, four-year contract for $68 million.  I’ve said consistently I felt the Red Sox should wait on signing Beckett – preferably until a majority of this season was over and he could have proven himself some more.  

I remain very concerned about Beckett.  I just think his arm isn’t in the shape it was.  I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he has been injured at the end of the past two seasons and seemed to be fatigued.  I know it sounds lame to say this now, but, I was not surprised Beckett was so mediocre vs the Yankees on Sunday night.  I don’t get surprised by Beckett’s inconsistency anymore.   Beckett relies so heavily on fastball location that when he doesn’t have his location sharp and/or his curve working – especially against superb fastball hitters like the Yankees – he looks very average very quickly.  My guess is that Beckett will pitch half-decently this year.  I’ll be watching most closely in September and October, however.   If he has zip on his heater then, he’ll prove me wrong.

Second, I hope Big Papi starts hitting right away because I fear that if he doesn’t, the pressure in this crazy sports town will make it harder.   I cannot believe how much anxious, negative chatter I’ve heard on sports talk radio in Boston about whether David Ortiz can hit this year.  Ortiz didn’t get a hit on Opening Night, but there is no context on talk radio.  It’s as if it’s now the same as in early June last year – after Ortiz had slumped for two months.  Sports media and fans seem predisposed to give Ortiz very little slack this season.  If he slumps, many are saying, the Sox will have to remove him from the DH slot or put Mike Lowell in there.  Lowell is likely to be traded soon, but, at the moment, he’s on the Sox bench.

There was one moment Monday night when Ortiz had a hitter’s count (3 -1, I think) vs. Sabathia, and, sure enough, he got a fastball down the middle, and he fouled it off.  He swung a second late – something he did for most of the 2009 season.  It worried me – for one second, but, I will give Papi a few weeks before I conclude anything!  On a positive side, Ortiz looked in very good shape, to me.

The Sox and Yanks’ bullpens both face questions, and, the Yankees’ pen, at this early stage, looks like it may be vulnerable.

First, I don’t know what happened to Joba Chamberlain in the past year or so, but, he just isn’t the same pitcher.  He seems to lack the same confidence he had as a rookie.  He often lacks command of his pitches.  He doesn’t seem to throw the ball quite as hard as he once did.   He looked ordinary during his appearance.  The Sox’ Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon looked good.  Ramon Ramirez, who often pitches the 6th for the Sox, started his season poorly, and, I was not surprised.  After his great start last year Ramirez threw erratically, at best, the rest of the season – and, often, poorly.  If he cannot improve soon, I’d yank him from the bullpen.  Manny Delcarmen  didn’t pitch Monday, but, he had a shaky spring, after finishing poorly last year.    But, the Yanks’ pen, particularly Chan Ho Park, looked bad Monday, and that was refreshing given their strengths in most areas.

In the end, the Sox hitting will be even more dependent on Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia in 2010.   Each had terrific games Monday.  Pedroia hit a clutch home run.  Youkilis had three extra-base hits.  I believe Youkilis, quietly, has become one of the top 15 or so hitters in baseball.  He’s easily the best batter on the Red Sox.  Why?  He can do it all.  He hits for contact and power.   He has a fantastic eye and always makes pitchers work.  He hits in the clutch, and, seems, unlike J.D. Drew, to know when to swing and when to take a pitch with men on base in the late innings.

The Yankees, while still featuring an awesome, scary lineup, look just a tiny bit less threatening without Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and, even Melky Cabrera.   Maybe Curtis Granderson will be good.   Maybe Brett Gardner will too.   Yet, Damon and Matsui were proven clutch performers who came up with uncountable “big” hits, particularly against the Red Sox.

Seeing Pedro Martinez appear, by surprise, to throw out the first pitch, just reminded me that he was, by far, the most exciting player I’ve ever seen play for the Red Sox.   Pedro was the best.  He injected an incredible buzz to the Sox-Yanks rivalry.  It was fitting to have him here to kick off the rivalry in 2010.

AJ: Sox, with Lackey, Are Back in the Game

The Red Sox’ near-final deal with free agent pitcher John Lackey should be a large sign of reassurance to Sox fans everywhere.  

First, Lackey makes the Sox rotation, on paper, as strong and deep as any in baseball.   Second, the team’s willingness to sign him to an five-year, near-$85 million deal indicates the team badly wants to win in 2010.  (Until yesterday, Sox GM Theo Epstein had stressed that the team is in a “bridge” period until 2011 or 2012, when its younger players are ready).  Third, signing Lackey allows the Red Sox the flexibility to make another big deal for a hitter, if they choose.

 I agree with ESPN/Boston’s Gordon Edes column yesterday that signing Lackey was unusual for Epstein because the Sox have avoided signing free agent pitchers to long-term deals.  Except for Japanese star pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, since when has Theo been willing to dish out $85 million to a 31-year-old pitcher who has been on the DL with arm problems the past two years and who has had only one season of winning more than 14 games?

The answer is:  Theo hasn’t done it.   So, why are the Red Sox doing it?  They realized, in the  past few days, they could not reach a deal with left-fielder Jason Bay, whose agent seems intent on a five-year contract.   They know Matt Holliday, a client of Scott Boras, will expect even more money.  So, suddenly the Sox realized they had to do SOMETHING this off-season to stay competitive with the Yankees.   Signing Lackey was the way they chose to do so.  I admit I’m still baffled why they’re willing to go five years with Lackey given the tendency of pitchers to break down at the stage Lackey is at – while, they dug their heels in about not giving Bay a five-year deal.  I’ve heard speculation of the Sox being concerned about Bay’s health over the length of a new contract, but, no definitive explanation has emerged yet.

So, is this it?  Will the Red Sox open the 2010 season with Mike Cameron in left, perhaps platooning with Jeremy Hermida?  If so, I remain dissatisfied with the lack of hitting on this team – and, I predict that would prevent any ultimate success.  They still need much more hitting. 

No one knows if they’ll now use Clay Buchholz to try to get Adrian Gonzalez or another power hitter.  Could they put Jacoby Ellsbury in a deal with Buccholz and have Cameron play center?  Are they interested in perhaps getting Nick Johnson to play 1st and move Youkilis to third?   We’ll find out soon enough, but, let’s consider Lackey and Cameron for a minute.

Big Mike, I disagree with your characterizing Lackey as only a “good” pitcher right now.   If you go back about five years, I would’ve agreed wiith you, but, Lackey, today, is a “very good” or “excellent” pitcher.   You mentioned he seemed to reach a new peak in 2007.  I think he’s much better now than he was.  What do I base it on?  My own observation.  I watched Lackey closely through the years and I noticed when he almost pitched a NO-NO against the Red Sox in July, 2008.  I watched him shut down the Sox more often the past year or two, including in the 2009 ADLS.  I also watched Lackey pitch well against the Yankees in the 2009 ACLS.  I know he didn’t get wins in those two games vs. the Bombers, but, he kept his team in the game, and, in one, he held the Pinstripers to 3 runs over nearly 7 innings.

More importantly, I’ve noticed Lackey’s command improve and his stuff seem to get better and better.  He’s got a fastball with good movement, a terrific curveball, a decent changeup  and a slider.   Plus, Lackey seems to have developed a mental toughness on the mound that was absent five or six years ago.  He’s got a tenacity that reminds me of Josh Beckett.  He doesn’t want to hand the ball over to the manager in a borderline situation in the 6th or 7th inning.

So, while Lackey is not on the same level as Roy Halladay or C.C. Sabathia, he is, in my view, as good as Beckett right now.   Yes, Beckett has slipped a bit, but he’s still good – if he’s healthy.  Which leads me to the key to this deal:  What are the chances Lackey will stay healthy over the next five years?  Clearly, the  Sox think he’ll be OK and that they can help him protect his arm.

Mike Cameron?  OK, I respect his terrific fielding skill, but, he’s 36 now and he hasn’t hit that well the past few years.  He’s a .250 career hitter, but the Sox, reportedly, are near a two-year deal to pay him $15.5 million. 

The last thing the Red Sox need is another weak hitter.   The one scenario in which it won’t matter is if they get another slugger.  If they do, I’ll be fine with Cameron.  If they don’t, I think it’s an unnecessary downgrade in hitting  – given the team probably could’ve gotten Bay for a bit more dough.

It’s interesting.  One gets the sense that after the Yankees got Curtis Granderson and Bay appeared un-signable, the Red Sox brass might have done a lot of internal debating over which path to go down – to avoid any big deal and hope the fans would be patient in 2010, or, to get Lackey and stay in the game. 

What a relief.  The 2010 Red Sox, whoever is on their final roster, are FAR  more likely to be competitive now, with Lackey in their rotation, than beforehand.   I look forward to their first game against the Yankees, on ESPN, on the night of April 4th!