Big Mike, you and I apparently agree on what Theo’s next move should be. I support the idea of trading pitcher Clay Buchholz and centerfield Jacoby Ellsbury for Padres’ 1st baseman Adrian Gonzalez.
With Jason Bay gone, the Sox need for a slugger is now off-the-charts. Moving Buchholz seems a bit less hard, to me, now than a year or two ago. He’s had a shot at starting pitching in three seasons. He’s obviously got some high-quality, raw talent. His stuff is unusually good, particularly his changeup. Yet, he’s still been inconsistent and some question his makeup a bit and this seems to reduce the predictions of Buchholz evolving into a “sure-thing” 20-game winner. There are still some doubts. Given that and given his youth and inexperience alone, it’s not hard to put him in a trade for Adrian Gonzalez, especially when the Sox now have three ACE pitchers in their rotation.
That leaves the question of Ellsbury. This is more hotly debated around Boston, but, to me, I think Ellsbury has been somewhat over-rated by fans and media during most of his time in the big-leagues. He’s exciting, steals a ton of bases and his good looks make him popular with young women at Fenway Park. But Ellsbury is still only a half-decent hitter after being on the Sox since the end of 2007. In fact, he’s not really that good a leadoff hitter. I heard today his OBP was among the lowest-third in comparison to other leadoff hitters in the American League. He has not yet learned how to draw walks – a critical flaw for a lead-off guy. He can’t even take pitches very well, often unable to resist swinging at tougher pitches to hit. He hasn’t learned how to make contact on different pitches, and, can be pitched to quite easily by the better pitchers. (He hits fastballs better than breaking stuff) The bottom-line is Ellsbury is more suited to hit low in the batting order.
Dustin Pedroia is a better leadoff hitter. JD Drew is a better leadoff hitter, and Marco Scutaro is probably better too – I have not seen Scutaro hit much, but I believe that.
Fielding wise, Ellsbury frequently makes spectacular catches in center, but, it’s a bit misleading. Often, he’s late getting to the ball he’s catching miraculously. His range is decent, but, not as good as it appears. (He runs so fast after the ball that he looks good chasing almost everything) I’m told that when Ellsbury is measured by fielding stats, he doesn’t fare as well as it appears. He’s decent, but, Mike Cameron would be FAR better in center.
So, for me, trading Buchholz and Ellsbury for Gonzo would make sense and be a timely, excellent move right now. Different baseball writers are reporting different speculative remarks and “nuggets” of information on a potential Sox-Padres move. Gordon Edes of ESPN/Boston reported that “a baseball source” told him the Sox wouldn’t trade Buchhholz and Ellsbury for Gonzalez. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports Net had everyone buzzing with his story today saying that the Sox were “working hard” to try to eventually get Gonzalez, but, acknowledged, the deal may never develop.
Let’s recall that even with Jason Bay and Mike Lowell in 2009, the Red Sox hitting was quite weak at times against decent pitching, and, deteriorated by the end of the season. In 2010, without Bay or Lowell – two of their better hitters last year – the VOID would stand out disturbingly. If the Sox were to start the 2010 season now – without any new hitters – they’d have Ortiz, Drew, Scutaro, Cameron and Kotchman as their potential bottom of the order. That group will NOT cut it for next year. If the Sox don’t get Gonzalez, there have been reports of their interest in Adrian Beltre, but, it’s unclear they’d pay him what he wants. There have been rumors they’ve considered the Nationals’ Nick Johnson at 1st base
I cannot believe the Red Sox, after making this mega-move to get Lackey, would let the 2010 season go down the drain due to such weak hitting throughout a chunk of their daily lineup. Gonzalez would help prevent some of that, even though their hitting would still be RIDICULOUSLY SHORT of the Yankees.
I’m confident the Soxwill make moves to improve their hitting, but, who knows if they’ll get Gonzalez? My hunch is they will get it done, eventually.
Big Mike, a note of clarification: I think, from now on, I’ll try to point out when – in the role of a baseball writer – I might not agree with a move by Theo Epstein, but, in the role of a fan, I am OK with it. I say this because I didn’t think Epstein probably should have offered Lackey a FIVE-year deal, but, you see, as a fan, I was just glad to get Lackey -and, my feeling is probably like yours at times: It’s not my money!
