AJ: Observations After Red Sox Opener

For one game, at least, the Red Sox hitters got the job done! 

The Sox won a game against C.C. Sabathia and the New York Yankees on a night when Sox starter, Josh Beckett, pitched poorly.   These sort of events occur rarely, so, I try to savor them when they do.

All the talk about the Sox’ pitching and “run prevention” seemed, for the most part, irrelevant.   That’s the beauty of the season beginning:  We throw out all the speculation and predictions and see what teams have to offer.

The Red Sox newcomers – Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron – all contributed to the win.  This seemed a particularly fortunate twist because, early success can really help new players in Boston, not the easiest place to get acclimated in.  Beltre got a big, clutch hit to tie the game 5-5.  Scutaro and Cameron each got two hits.  All three fielded fine, particularly Cameron, who made a few good catches in center.

So, what am I thinking as the Sox and Yanks prepare for Game Two tonight?

First, I’m in a tiny minority who were not pleased by yesterday’s news that the Sox signed Becket to a new, four-year contract for $68 million.  I’ve said consistently I felt the Red Sox should wait on signing Beckett – preferably until a majority of this season was over and he could have proven himself some more.  

I remain very concerned about Beckett.  I just think his arm isn’t in the shape it was.  I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he has been injured at the end of the past two seasons and seemed to be fatigued.  I know it sounds lame to say this now, but, I was not surprised Beckett was so mediocre vs the Yankees on Sunday night.  I don’t get surprised by Beckett’s inconsistency anymore.   Beckett relies so heavily on fastball location that when he doesn’t have his location sharp and/or his curve working – especially against superb fastball hitters like the Yankees – he looks very average very quickly.  My guess is that Beckett will pitch half-decently this year.  I’ll be watching most closely in September and October, however.   If he has zip on his heater then, he’ll prove me wrong.

Second, I hope Big Papi starts hitting right away because I fear that if he doesn’t, the pressure in this crazy sports town will make it harder.   I cannot believe how much anxious, negative chatter I’ve heard on sports talk radio in Boston about whether David Ortiz can hit this year.  Ortiz didn’t get a hit on Opening Night, but there is no context on talk radio.  It’s as if it’s now the same as in early June last year – after Ortiz had slumped for two months.  Sports media and fans seem predisposed to give Ortiz very little slack this season.  If he slumps, many are saying, the Sox will have to remove him from the DH slot or put Mike Lowell in there.  Lowell is likely to be traded soon, but, at the moment, he’s on the Sox bench.

There was one moment Monday night when Ortiz had a hitter’s count (3 -1, I think) vs. Sabathia, and, sure enough, he got a fastball down the middle, and he fouled it off.  He swung a second late – something he did for most of the 2009 season.  It worried me – for one second, but, I will give Papi a few weeks before I conclude anything!  On a positive side, Ortiz looked in very good shape, to me.

The Sox and Yanks’ bullpens both face questions, and, the Yankees’ pen, at this early stage, looks like it may be vulnerable.

First, I don’t know what happened to Joba Chamberlain in the past year or so, but, he just isn’t the same pitcher.  He seems to lack the same confidence he had as a rookie.  He often lacks command of his pitches.  He doesn’t seem to throw the ball quite as hard as he once did.   He looked ordinary during his appearance.  The Sox’ Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon looked good.  Ramon Ramirez, who often pitches the 6th for the Sox, started his season poorly, and, I was not surprised.  After his great start last year Ramirez threw erratically, at best, the rest of the season – and, often, poorly.  If he cannot improve soon, I’d yank him from the bullpen.  Manny Delcarmen  didn’t pitch Monday, but, he had a shaky spring, after finishing poorly last year.    But, the Yanks’ pen, particularly Chan Ho Park, looked bad Monday, and that was refreshing given their strengths in most areas.

In the end, the Sox hitting will be even more dependent on Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia in 2010.   Each had terrific games Monday.  Pedroia hit a clutch home run.  Youkilis had three extra-base hits.  I believe Youkilis, quietly, has become one of the top 15 or so hitters in baseball.  He’s easily the best batter on the Red Sox.  Why?  He can do it all.  He hits for contact and power.   He has a fantastic eye and always makes pitchers work.  He hits in the clutch, and, seems, unlike J.D. Drew, to know when to swing and when to take a pitch with men on base in the late innings.

The Yankees, while still featuring an awesome, scary lineup, look just a tiny bit less threatening without Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and, even Melky Cabrera.   Maybe Curtis Granderson will be good.   Maybe Brett Gardner will too.   Yet, Damon and Matsui were proven clutch performers who came up with uncountable “big” hits, particularly against the Red Sox.

Seeing Pedro Martinez appear, by surprise, to throw out the first pitch, just reminded me that he was, by far, the most exciting player I’ve ever seen play for the Red Sox.   Pedro was the best.  He injected an incredible buzz to the Sox-Yanks rivalry.  It was fitting to have him here to kick off the rivalry in 2010.

AJ: Thank God Papelbon Is Back!

The Red Sox’ team personality has become more boring during the past year or two.  The most colorful players from their 2004 and 2007 championship seasons are gone.  Their lineup includes mostly players who stick to business and don’t reveal much of their spontaneous, fun side within public view.

That’s why Red Sox fans should be relieved the team reached a contract agreement with stud closer Jonathan Papelbon last week. 

Papelbon signed a one-year, $9.35 million contract, making him the seventh-highest paid closer in baseball.  He’ll be eligible for free agency after 2011, and, Boston fans should enjoy him now because he’s likely to leave before or after that 2011 season.

Papelbon is argubly, the last (publicly) goofy, fun, spontaneous player left on the Red Sox.  Though he wasn’t in the group of “Idiots” that won in 2004, he would have fit in nicely, and, he has, in a way, seemed sort of a tie to that crazy, special time in Red Sox history.   I can easily imagine Papelbon doing those mini shots of Jack Daniels with Kevin Millar and others back in 2004.

Think of the colorful, entertaining players the Sox have lost:   Manny Ramirez, in the middle of the 2008 season.  Manny was anything but boring;  he was an “electric” ballplayer who could hit almost any pitcher at any time – plus, his off-field behavior kept things interesting.  Pedro Martinez was, in my view, the most exciting, compelling athlete to ever come through Boston – someone who expressed his individuality – in the moment – on and off the field.  The departed also include Millar, a fun-loving, key, uniting force in the 2004 clubhouse, and Johnny Damon, who played with such enthusiasm.  Then, there were the outspoken Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe and others.

On the team of current players who tend to spew predictable, cliched replies, Papelbon at least sprinkles in some surprising, humorous behavior. Once, in 2006, Papelbon cut his hair into a “Mohawk” modeled after Charlie Sheen’s “Wild Thing” character from Major League after losing a bet with teammate Kevin Youkilis.  Papelbon began filling the “crazy, funny guy” role, in earnest, when, after the Red Sox won the 2007 ALDS,  he began spontaneously dancing on the Fenway Park diamond – doing an Irish dance step – and the fans went crazy.  Papelbon repeated the dance after the ACLS and World Series wins, and it all culminated with the closer partying in the “rolling rally” parade celebration through the streets of Boston.   Papelbon was on a duckboat with the Dropkick Murphys band and he played air guitar, sang to the music, gestured to the crowd, and danced non-stop on that parade wherever the boats made a stop before the cheering fans.  Papelbon, appeared to savor every minute of it – and the fans loved him for it.  I had never seen any athlete in Boston throw so much energy into a public celebration of victory. 

Papelbon’s ritual run in from the Sox bullpen at Fenway Park always triggers good feelings from the collective fans on hand.  As the song “I’m Shipping Up to Boston” by the Dropkick Murphys blares on Fenway speakers, everyone watches Papelbon, in his regular ritual, give a fistbump to the cop outside the bullpen and begin his fast jog into the pitcher’s mound.   He goes into his familiar serious stare toward his catcher to get the sign and fires one blazing mid-to-upper 90s heater after another.

Usually, Papelbon doesn’t disappoint on the mound.  Even last year, when he struggled with his control and had to endure some long saves, he often blew a fastball by the last hitter to nail the game down.  

Papelbon’s pitching often looked different in 2009, partly because, in the first half of the year, he tried a new pitching motion that allowed him to use his legs more and preserve his arm.  While the motion reduced a bit of wear and tear, Papelbon was a bit more inconsistent.  Occasionally, he looked bad and some, including me, speculated about his arm condition.  Nevertheless, he was still damned good – and, by the last part of the season, he looked very sharp and more like his old self.  However, things fell apart for Papelbon in Game 3 of the ALDS, when he uncharacteristically, badly blew a save against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, ending the Sox’ season. 

Papelbon must shed a few of his bad habits from 2009, when he allowed far more walks than usual and often threw too many pitches to get many of his saves.  Papelbon sometimes had good movement on his heater, and, other times, uncharacteristically, lacked “giddyup.”  He threw, surprisingly, many very hittable fastballs down the middle that were whacked around with the game in the balance.

Papelbon, in a radio interview on “98.5 – The Sports Hub” – last week, said he’s been working out and feeling eager to start the 2010 season.  Papelbon has kept a videotape of his disastrous playoff outing that he watches repeatedly – for extra motivation – while he’s exercising.

Papelbon’s deal was reached just before he’d have gone to salary arbitration.  He’s been content to work  under one-year deals and also seems willing to head toward free agency after 2011, when he’d possibly demand a salary beyond what the Sox might want to pay him then, when he’d have less mileage left on his arm.   Papelbon takes pride in being one of the game’s best closers.  His hero is Yanks’ legend, Mariano Rivera.   Some speculate that Papelbon may wind up on the Yankees someday. 

It’s possible that 2010 may be Papelbon’s last in Boston.  If not, I strongly doubt he’d return after becoming a free agent at the end of 2011.

I hope, before Papelbon leaves Boston, that I see him do one more Irish dance as he celebrates another championship.

AJ: Reply to Big Mike’s Bleeding Heart

Big Mike:  Let me be perfectly clear – as “Tricky Dick” said – now, and, for future reference: 

I do NOT, for one minute, take any of the Red Sox’ recent success for granted.  I enjoy it while it lasts.  I am NOT complaining about the team’s overall performance.  To the contrary,  I am STILL glowing from the Sox 2004 championship!!  I grew up with the Red Sox in the 1960s and have been with them ever since.   So, I don’t need your reminders about the Sox’ good fortunes, or, your sarcastic “bleeding heart.”

Now, for the context that you need:  My blog on the Sox 2009 season was an attempt to look beneath the team’s appearance – which many baseball pundits were a bit too impressed by all season — and examine what was missing.   I wondered:  How can a team like the Sox win 95 games, and, yet, fall quite short (in my view) of the Yankees, Angels, Phillies and other teams.   What I’ve learned is that teams can win in the vicinity of 90 games and not come close to what’s needed to go all the way — That’s interesting to me, but, I understand, perhaps it’s too painful for certain Cub fans to even hear about such topics.   That’s just too bad, I guess.

A few clarifying points:

1.  The Red Sox play in a division with the Yankees.  It’s like playing black jack vs. The BANK as your main opponent.  If your team does not win 90-95 games, often you have no chance to win the division with the Evil Empire. The Wild Card ain’t easy, either, with the Rays in the AL East and a few good teams in the Central.  So, Big Mike, sorry to say this, but we live in different worlds when it comes to what’s needed to make or win the playoffs.   The AL East is my frame of reference;  so, what may seem like “small” differences, or subtleties to you about a team’s makeup or win totals can make or break a team in the AL East.

2.  I’m not going to lie to you:  Being a Red Sox fan has RADICALLY changed in the past ten or so years.  It’s been the most exciting era and I’m much more familiar with what it takes for a team to win.  Red Sox fans (and Patriots and Celtics fans) have been in a gold mine — but, my perspective will always be different now.   I AM used to the Sox winning 90 games – and damned lucky for that………but, it’s given me more insights about the game.

3.  I was attempting the same analysis of how Sox players did in 2009.  Yes, I appreciate Jason Bay’s great year, but, I was interested to notice how often Bay hurt the team because he couldn’t hit a curve ball with men on base.  Or, how Ortiz, a favorite, could put up such good numbers, and, yet not help the team NEARLY as much as one might think.  One thing I so appreciate now is the intangibles of baseball – and how a guy like Kevin Millar was critical to the 2004 team because he kept guys loose.  Or, a guy like Bill Mueller, whose stats in 04 weren’t the greatest, but, always grinded out his at-bats.

4.  I sense, Big Mike, that it’s simply hard to hear me even point out Papelbon’s problems or Bay’s weaknesses because the Cubs have bigger problems.   You’ll have to get used to it.   All I can say is the Red Sox didn’t win until Dan Duquette signed Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez and Johnny Damon, and, Theo Epstein followed up by adding Ortiz, Schilling, Keith Foulke, Millar and others.  I guess I’m saying:  You need to acquire the personnel, man !!!!  I don’t know the Cubs’ story, but my guess is they have not shown good savvy about choosing players to sign, correct?

Which brings me to my last point:  In your earlier blog about the Red Sox’ 2004 trade of Nomar Garciaparra to the Cubs,  I think you were too easy on Jim Hendry.  I think if Hendry and Cubs’ scouts had done more homework, they would have noticed the extent to which Nomar’s injury problems had caused his play to suffer up to and including the first half of 2004.  He had begun to decline at the plate (especially his power) and in the field. 

The Cubs just blew that one.  Seems it’s time for the Cubs and their fans to raise expectations a bit, don’t you think?