Archive for the 'Sabermetrics' Category

Big Mike: Milton The Monster

October 30, 2009

Wrigleyville (the community of fans as opposed to the neighborhood around the ballpark) is abuzz with speculation about whom the Cubs will get in exchange for one Milton (no middle name) Bradley of Harbor City, California.

Shoot, I thought all mass murderers or assassins had middle names. Isn’t that what Milton Bradley is? For all the bile spewed in his name since his very first game at Wrigley Field as a Cub, Bradley has to rank among John Wayne Gacy and Richard Franklin Speck as a local villain.

Of course, he’s brought much of the odium on himself but the rage expressed at Bradley is alarming. I mean, jeez, he’s just a ballplayer, albeit one with a paranoiac streak and who can’t control his rages and alienates just about everyone he’s ever shared a shower room with. It’s not like he lied to the country to whip up war fever or is mad because taxpayers won’t pick up the tab for an eight-figure bonus he thinks he should get.

Still, don’t count me among the Bradley defenders. (Then again, are there any Milton Bradley defenders anywhere?) I’m one of those numbers-crunching stats geeks old-time baseball fans like to pillory. I’ll always look to a player’s BAbip, VORP, WARP2, OPS+, UZR, and occasionally his pH level rather than fairy tale attributes like “character,” “ability in the clutch,” and (ugh) “scrappiness.” I have no idea what a “gamer” is but I do know how many Runs Created each player on the Cubs roster was responsible for in 2009. And Milton Bradley is one fine ballplayer based on any metric you can name.

That said, there’s no place for him here next year. If you can find anybody who’ll disagree, then you ought to play the lottery.

Gameboard is owed $21M for both the 2010 and ’11 seasons. The other 29 GMs in MLB know Jim Hendry has to exile Bradley from Cubville. So you might think Hungry Jim is over a barrel. He may have to eat up to $10M of Milton’s remaining pay and accept some other team’s albatross in the bargain. You may be right. Yet, there’s always someone who thinks he can handle the other guy’s problems, especially if that problem is good for a plus-.375 on-base percentage. Might someone be willing to swap some usable talent for him?

The Mets are said to be sick to death of both Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran. The Rays are stuck with Pat Burrell’s big contract. The Blue Jays may want to rid themselves of Vernon Wells’ bloated contract. Then there are the Red Sox who always are on the lookout for hitters who produce, leaving others to fight among themselves over the Boy Scouts.

Some say Hendry ought to agree to a deal with the first team that offers to take Bradley off his hands, no matter the return. But reporters like Ken Rosenthal and Bruce Miles claim their sources tell them Hendry already has received more than courtesy calls regarding the wayward rightfielder. Even if Hendry takes his time to sort through whatever competing offers there may be, he has to close the book on Bradley before or at least early on in December’s general managers meeting. The Cubs absolutely cannot stand still as they did in the 2004-05 off-season while trying to exile Sammy Sosa. Not only did they get next to nothing back for a man who’ll waltz into the Hall of Fame, they were unable to pull the trigger on any other signings that might have actually improved their chances the next season. In the weeks leading up to Sammy’s foregone departure, other teams snapped up the likes of Beltran, Magglio Ordonez and even Roger Clemens. I’m getting aroused just thinking about any of those three on the Cubs.

Anyway, Hungry Jim has about five weeks, max, to peddle Bradley. If he doesn’t do the deed by then he may as well hang on to him, which means a lot of unneeded clubhouse drama next season. Whereas clubhouse drama doesn’t necessarily preclude the winning of the World Series, as the mid-70s A’s or late-70s Yankees proved, it doesn’t make the task any easier. And, it must be said, the 2010 Cubs will not compare favorably with either the of those champs.

Had I magic in the snap of my fingers, I’d put together a package of Carlos Zambrano, Milton Bradley and Sean Marshall for Beltran and Reyes. Everybody’s happy that way — the Mets get rid of a couple of guys whom they (wrongly) consider lacking and they get the stud pitcher and outfield masher they so crave. The Cubs, meanwhile, wave bye-bye to their most villified player since Todd Hundley as well as a guy whose mound blow-ups are becoming increasingly intolerable. Plus, they get a brilliant switch-hitting leadoff man shortstop and slugging centerfielder, neither of which they’ve had since the Fillmore administration. Sigh.

Will it happen? Hell no! But that’s what I love about the hot stove season — I can pretend it might.

Big Mike: Who Needs Runs?

October 17, 2009

The cream of the Cubs farm system is a third baseman named Josh Vitters, the number three overall selection in the 2007 amateur draft. That June, he was acclaimed as the “most polished” high school hitter in the draft, whatever in the hell that means.

The Arizona Fall League commenced 2009 play Wednesday and Vitters went three for four with a double in the Phoenix Desert Dogs’ 4-2 victory over the Mesa Solar Sox. The North Side is abuzz, hoping the kid turns out to be the real thing. I — the voice of reason, natch — have to throw cold water on this line of thinking.

Vitters takes a walk about as often as Glenn Beck takes a moment to think about what he’s going to say. In 458 at bats this past season with the Single A Peoria Chiefs and the Double A Daytona Cubs, Vitters drew a grand total of 12 bases on balls. Twelve. Not even a baker’s goddamned dozen.

Your grandmother and your teething toddler know that minor league free-swingers are the worst bets to become capable big league hitters. If guys like Vitters can’t figure out a way to lay off those big, jug-handled curves that are 14 inches outside and those sliders in the dirt in places like Peoria, they’re going to get chewed up and spit out the second they hit the bigs.

The Cubs are notorious for bringing up kids who haven’t the faintest idea what the strike zone is all about. Going back to Shawon Dunston and through Corey Patterson and Felix Pie, Cubs phenoms have acted as though swinging at every pitch is a compulsory act. Dunston, for instance, in 1995 drew 10 walks in 503 plate appearances. And that was his 11th year in the majors!

The entire Cubs organization is notorious for having been slow on the uptake when it comes to the tenets of sabermetrics. The Bill James crowd has preached plate discipline and on-base percentage since the late 1970s. The Cubs occasionally acknowledge that it’s nice to take a walk. yet no one from the front office publicly extols the virtues of patience. Hitters who control the strike zone not only maximize the chance that they’ll see a fat pitch but they force the pitcher to throw, throw, throw — meaning the starter lasts a shorter time in the game and he’ll likely be more hittable by the middle innings. It all sounds so reasonable.

Yet the Cubs treat this philosophy as so much Zoroastrianism, arcane and quaint. The nadir of such thought came during the tenure of one Johnnie B. Baker as manager. Dusty never let an opportunity pass to tell the world how impatient he was with patient hitters. His assertion that walks clog the bases is now risibly legendary.

The 2008 Cubs led the National League in runs, something they hadn’t done in…, let’s see, hmm, oh yeah…, my goddamned lifetime! And I’m older than Gabby Hartnett, for chrissakes. The Cubs have led the league in runs precisely once in my 6000 years on this planet despite playing in a ballpark that for most of that time was the definitive hitters haven.

And how did the Cubs lead the league in runs in 2008? By walking a league-leading 636 times! Walks equal men on base. Having men on base means you have a greater chance of scoring runs. Simple, no?

This year, the Cubs went back to their impulsive ways. They stopped being selective at the plate and consequently dropped to 11th in the league in runs scored. Their limp-dick offense killed them this year, considering the pitchers posted a fine earned run average that ranked fourth in the league. And, by the way, the three teams that ranked ahead of them all benefitted from playing in pitchers’ parks.

Aaaarrrggghhh…, the Cubs make me so mad!

So the future rests in the hands of yet another kid who eschews patience and discipline at the plate. Hey, kids like Vitter think, I swung at everything in high school and hit them all a mile — may as well keep doing it! Only the big leagues ain’t high school.

Something the Cubs’ successive brain trusts have never figured out.

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