AJ: For Buchholz, It’s All in the Mind

No one questions the raw talent of 25-year-old Red Sox pitcher Clay Buchholz.   What remains unknown is whether Buchholz can make real strides in the mental aspects of pitching. 

In 2007, when Buchholz took the mound for only his second start in the big leagues, he threw a dazzling no-hitter against the Baltimore Orioles.  I remember watching the last few innings of that game and being struck by Buchholz’s “stuff.”  His changeup was beautiful to watch, and, his curveball was virtually unhittable too.

Then, once in the starting rotation in 2008, Buchholz struggled, and things just got worse and worse.  He ended with a 2-9 record and a 6.75 ERA, but, perhaps more troubling, one could see Buchholz lose his confidence rather dramatically as the season went on.   Last year, Buchholz started in the minors, but, when called up to the Sox,  the results were much better.  He made several good starts late in the summer, and, one good outing in the 2009 playoffs vs. the Los Angeles Angels.

So, one would hope and expect Buchholz, this time, would be on his way for 2010.  Yet, with only ten days left in Spring Training, there are lingering uncertainties about Buchholz psyche and his ability to maintain his focus and “edge” on the mound.

Buchholz has had two bad outings this spring, but, again, it’s how he’s struggled that reminds one he might not be done learning the mental side of pitching.  He’s had trouble keeping his focus with men on base – something that has been a problem in his big-league experience so far.  Plus, he still shows signs of doubting his stuff or ability at times when you’d perhaps expect him to be over that by now.

After his most recent March 23rd outing vs. the Minnesota Twins, Buchholz acknowledged he had been too distracted by Twins’  baserunners.   Sox Manager Terry Francona said that was an ongoing challenge.

“It’s something we continue to talk about,” Francona told Sean McAdam, in a March 25th article for Comcast Sportsnet New England, (CSNNE)  “because I think sometimes his attention gets divided.”

Francona shared Buchholz’ view that at times, Buchholz was trying to be too perfect with his pitching rather than trusting his stuff more and throwing it in the strike zone more.

These remarks don’t tell the whole story, though.  The striking part for Buchholz is the extent to which he “unravels” mentally on the mound.  Once he gives up a few hits, often, he visibly loses his confidence and his performance goes straight downhill a bit more glaringly than you see with other pitchers.   Buchholz does seem a bit hung up on trying to nibble on the corners rather than challenge hitters.  In particular, this seems true of his fastball, which tends to get hit the most in the zone.  I agree with others who have noted that if Buchholz can improve his fastball just a bit and get more confidence in it,  that may be the key to him taking off as a pitcher. 

Yet, I recall, from watching him, that it’s when he gets behind in the count, that he tends to lose his “edge” or confidence, and, sometimes, the throws a meaty fastball down the middle and it gets crushed.

It seems more of a mental challenge than physical.    I dont’ know what will put Buchholz on a consistent track.  Maybe he has to learn it’s OK to throw “hittable” pitches (especially fastballs) and to trust his fielders to help him win.  Maybe it’s 90 percent an “internal” issue for him — that only he can improve on by finding ways to concentrate at the key moments.

Whatever it is, Buchholz needs to make some progress this year or he may find himself no longer on the Red Sox.  It’s time for him to show what  he can do – now.

In fact, McAdam, a veteran Boston baseball writer, speculated in his article for CSNNE that it would seem somewhat harder for the Sox to leave Buchholz in the 5th spot in the starting rotation now than Tim Wakefield, the 43-year-old knuckleballer, who has pitched better this spring.

Buchholz has said he’s not assuming he’s won the spot. 

“I’ll just basically go out and pitch like I can, throw the ball well and let the organization decide what they want to do,” Buchholz told Ian Browne of MLB.com

I wish, at this point, Buchholz had the confidence to say he expects to be in the rotation and will be disappointed if he’s not.

But, first, I guess, he has to feel confident and focused while pitching with men on base or when he’s behind in the count.

Buchholz must learn to improve his mental focus if he is to become the ace who pitched that no-no back in 2007.

AJ: Sox Hitting In Regression At Start of 2010

I don’t care what Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is preaching.  I say the Red Sox are a substantially weaker-hitting team and real underdogs in the American League East in 2010.  

I challenge any fan to compare the starting lineups of the New York Yankees or Tampa Bay Rays to the Red Sox, and tell me, honestly, you believe the Red Sox come even close.   You can add comparisons to the lineups of the Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia Phillies or several other quality teams and the Sox hitting falls well short.

Spring Training has just begun, and, already, Red Sox players have been asked a ton of questions about perceptions of their weaker offense.  Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy wrote last week that the questions were already irritating a few players.   Well, they better get used to it – - unless they defy the odds by hitting well from the outset.

In the off-season, the Red Sox lost Jason Bay, their best hitter last year, Mike Lowell, a good hitter, and Alex Gonzalez, a weak hitter.   They replaced these three with Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro.   While Beltre or Scutaro may supply limited “punch,” they’re not going to hit as well as Bay and Lowell did last year.    So, the team will have to find new ways to produce runs, and, do so with less home runs, probably.   They’ll have to run the bases better and advance runners better.

“I think we’re going to have a little bit of a different look this season,” hitting coach Dave Magadan told Sean McAdam in McAdam’s most recent column posted on CSNNE’s website.  “Every guy in the lineup is capable of 15 homers, if not 20 homers.   I think we’re going to have to some other things better this year.”

Magadan is right.  If the Red Sox can reinvent themselves a bit, and produce more runs with timely singles and sacrifice flies and rely less on the long ball, they might find a way to scratch just enough runs across for their superb pitching staff.  But, they have to do the “little things” right.  They can’t strand nearly as many baserunners as they did in 2009.

Not one of the Red Sox starters hit 30 home runs last year.   (That feels bizarre to acknowledge after years of Big Papi and Manny mashing the ball!)  So, it’ll have to be a team greater than the sum of its parts – a team with guys who can get the bat on the ball in key situations.

Another “new” aspect of 2010, in my view, is the large uncertainty surrounding the performance of certain players in the first half of the season, and, the likelihood that if they perform badly, the team will have an even more active trading deadline period than in recent years.  I refer most prominently to David Ortiz, who is in the last year of his contract.  If Big Papi struggles badly again in the first half, I think the Sox could either demote him to a part-time DH, or, if he’s a total disaster, even contemplate trading him or releasing him before the end of the year.  I don’t think he’ll be that bad, but, who knows?   Also, if the team’s overall hitting is bad until July, I think Theo will try very hard to get a top-notch slugger here – whether it’s Adrian Gonzalez or someone else.

The 2010 Red Sox just feel much more “fragile” than in recent years.  They’re without star hitters to “anchor” them.  If a guy like Youkilis or Victor Martinez goes out with an injury, the impact will be far greater on this squad.  For that matter, as I said in my last blog, if the starting pitching falters at all, the team won’t be able to “get by” long at all.  (If the aging Tim Wakefield doesn’t perform well in the early months, I don’t expect him to get many more chances in the second half after his bad endings to the past few years).

I hope the hitters I question - Cameron, Scutaro, Beltre, Ellsbury, Ortiz – all do better than I anticipate and the Sox compete all summer.   I think the pitching IS good enough to keep the Sox alive, but, right now, I don’t think the team is good enough to advance in the playoffs.

Late last week, Dan Shaughnessy of the Globe asked Kevin Youkilis about all the speculation regarding a potential dropoff in the Sox hitting in 2010.

“You guys also predicted the Cubs to win the World Series…,” Youkilis replied, in Shaughnessy’s column.

AJ: Theo Acknowledges Reality

Red Sox fans can breathe a collective sigh of at least partial relief.   General Manager Theo Epstein, in a televised interview, finally acknowledged having some “concerns” about the Red Sox offense for the upcoming season. 

Until now, Epstein has harped so much on “run-prevention” that it seemed he was in denial about the gaps in the team’s 2010 hitting lineup.  The team has lost its most productive hitter, Jason Bay,who hit 36 HRs and knocked in  119 RBIs and will soon trade away Mike Lowell, who had 75 RBIs in just 119 games.   The team’s hitting was a real weakness by the end of the 2009 season.      

I find it a bit reassuring when, even if I totally disagree with the Red Sox, the GM shows he’s not living in fantasyland. 

Sean McAdam of Comcast SportsNet New England (CSNNE) asked Epstein, if, he had any concerns about the offense, without Bay, being good enough offensively.

Theo Epstein, in the Jan. 8th interview, replied as follows:

“Sure we have concerns…Always have concerns about different elements (of) the club going into the spring — I think there’s a recognition that we couldn’t be perfect – That we couldn’t get our pitching, our defense, and our offense all up to where we wanted them to be at a premium level to start the year.  But, there’s one thing that’s easier to fix during the year – It’s usually the offense –  The last two trade deadlines, we’ve added big bats – in Jason Bay and Victor Martinez  That type of player is a little easier to find during the year than a “top-of-the- rotation” starter and certainly easier than reorganizing your defense.

“That said, Epstein continued, “we have six of our nine starters (who) are guys who have hit 25 or more HRs in the big leagues – We have nine such players out of our of 13 position spots, so I think we have some power – we’re threats – We’re still are going to have a way better than league average on-base percentage.  I think if we’re a top five offensive club - with our run prevention, that should get us where we need to be.  Whether we can accomplish it remains to be seen……”

At least, Theo, in this interview, is admitting the uncertainty about the hitting AND the team’s definite interest in potentially adding a bat at the trading deadline, if necessary.

Epstein, who introduced Adrian Beltre at a press conference yesterday, said he thought Beltre might find more hitting success in Fenway Park rather than Seattle’s Safeco Field, where he played all his home games last year.  Most agree with him on that;  the question is:  how much better will Beltre hit?  Also, will Mike Cameron do at least a little more hitting at Fenway and will Marco Scutaro add some punch as well?  If these three hit at least to some extent and David Ortiz can improve from last year, Epstein hopes the team will do OK offensively in 2010.  If not, and Adrian Gonzalez is available at the deadline, the Red Sox will likely match any team’s offer to add Gonzalez.

Like I’ve told you, Big Mike, the first step in a team improving is for its managers to face the truth and share it with the media and public.

If the 2010 Red Sox cannot hit enough, Theo is indicating he won’t sit back and do nothing.   Fans like me appreciate hearing that publicly.

AJ: Theo’s Trying Hard to Sell “A Bridge”

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein apparently has stressed to baseball reporters that his team is in a “bridge” period – a transition.  He’s saying the team has a few promising young players coming up, but they won’t be ready for the big leagues until the 2011 or 2012 seasons.

“We like our young players a lot,” Epstein told Sean McAdam of Comcast SportsNet New England. (CSNNE)  “but they’re not going to immediately impact the organization.  They’re still developing…We still think if we push the right buttons, we can be competitive at the very highest levels for the next two years,” Epstein told McAdam, who reported the GM’s remarks today on his CSNNE blog from baseball’s winter meetings.  “But we don’t want to compromise too much of the future for that competitiveness during the bridge period. ”

Theo is trying  to lower fans’ expectations for the 2010 season.  He began this “pitch” as soon as the 2009 season ended.   The Sox long-term deals with David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett will end after 2010 and the team is poised to get younger and add new talent.

Yet, Sox fans - including me – worry that Theo’s “bridge” may turn out to be a “bridge to nowhere” – to quote an incredibly over-rated, phony, right-wing female politician from Alaska.  Since when are Red Sox fans – especially those of us now accustomed to fielding competitive teams every year – going to accept Theo’s message, which seems to be “Hang in there – We’ll be getting better in a year or two.” 

It may be a rougher-than-usual year for fans and media in 2010.  Let’s face it:  We’re all spoiled as Sox fans in recent years.   The team has been very good year after year since 2003 or so.    The management team has been on a terrific run.  Are they due for a setback?  Maybe — but, I think the problem for owner John Henry, executive Larry Lucchino and Theo is that fans and media believe the Red Sox have some money to throw around right now.   The Sox recently raised ticket prices again, by the way.

No fans around here will soon forget the Mark Teixeira deal.  Instead of the Red Sox geting Teixeira, long coveted by Theo Epstein, he went to the Yankees, who simply outbid the Sox.  Now, maybe Teixeira’s wife wanted them to go to NY;  no one will probably know the whole story, but, in Boston, all that matters is that Teixeira was a KEY to the Yanks winning it all in 2009 — while his absence in Boston might have kept them from taking the titile.  Talk about a pivotal transaction for both teams! 

Where is all that Sox money not used to get Teixeira?  They got Victor Martinez for a lot less last summer, but the Sox haven’t made a big acquisition for some time.  Fans are still waiting for a big deal.

So, while the Yanks got Curtis Granderson, the word from the winter meetings is that the Sox are not going to get Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego; they’re extremely unlikely to get Miguel Cabrera from Detroit and, they’re unlikely to get Roy Halladay from Toronto.  The Sox are expected to get free agent Jason Bay back, or, if not, perhaps free agent Matt Holliday of St. Louis.

The Sox are reportedly talking to teams about trading Mike Lowell, but, it’s all speculative, and, really, is anyone they get in return likely to be a real hitting upgrade to Lowell, who can’t run well anymore, but, still hit last year.

In the end, McAdam told his CSSNE TV audience late last night he thinks it’s very possible the Sox will end up only with getting Jason Bay back — without any other big move.

Theo Epstein may be talking about his “bridge” during the entire summer of 2010.