AJ: Theo Needs to Snap Out of Denial

Even though it’s early, I hope Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is busy brainstorming about changes rather than lingering in denial.  

I say “denial” because, yesterday, I read Epstein’s comments that the team simply has to play better baseball.  “What we can do is look inward, work our (rears) off, and return to the principles that have made us a solid organization, and have made these players who they are,” Epstein told the April 21st Boston Globe.  Epstein’s remarks implied the Sox have sufficient talent, and, if they, simply, start playing up to that talent, things will improve.

Well, I hate to say it, Theo, but, I don’t think your team has as much talent as you do, and, I’m not alone.  

The Red Sox hitting stinks so far.  They’ve had to struggle to win their past two games against the mediocre Texas Rangers after being swept by the Tampa Bay Rays.  Their lineup is filled with one mediocre hitter after another.  A recent caller to a radio show put it this way:  “We have (only) three hitters – three hitters!  He named Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez as the only good batters.  The rest are easy to pitch to, he said.

My view is close to that caller’s,  but, not quite as extreme.  Pedroia, Youkilis and Martinez do stand out because they can make contact in any count while most others in the lineup have been easy outs vs. half-decent pitching.   Nevertheless, what Theo Epstein won’t admit is that you can’t win a championship – or, for that matter, make the playoffs – when the newcomers to an already-weak-hitting lineup are Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron.   Not with David Ortiz fading fast, the departure of Jason Bay and benching (& planned trade of) Mike Lowell.  

You need a couple of stud hitters to compete in the AL East – guys like the Yanks’  Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez or the Rays’ Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria.   But, even though the Sox’ weak hitting led to the Angels sweeping them in the 2009 playoffs, Theo’s “answer” in the off-season was to sign pitcher John Lackey and the other newcomers, who he said would bolster the team’s “run prevention.”  I was among many who ripped that game plan, and said the Sox would lack hitting.

So, what will Theo and the Sox brass do now?  Will they acknowledge the team’s deficits, own up to their mistakes and start on a new path?  Or, will they stay stubborn and try to win with a depleted lineup while denying it’s bad all summer?

It’s interesting because Epstein and company have experienced only success since arriving about eight years ago.   They had a huge advantage of inheriting a team with Manny Ramirez and Pedro Martinez and Johnny Damon – and, with Theo’s signing of Ortiz, a platooning player for the Minnesota Twins in 2002,  turned into an unexpected, smash success that helped bring two World Series titles to Boston.  

Now, suddenly, Epstein must make very tough calls in the middle of this season — probably within weeks.  The first will be what to do with Ortiz, who is in the last year of his $13 million contract.  If Big Papi continues to not hit, it seems Epstein and manager Terry Francona will have to play him less and less until they’re forced to release him and eat his contract, or, to trade him somewhere – and, still eat his contract.   I say this because I cannot imagine Ortiz sitting on the bench happily for the rest of the year.

Next, Epstein has to decide if and how to commit to Victor Martinez beyond this year, when his contract expires.  Martinez has failed badly at throwing out (stealing) baserunners so far, and,  indications suggest he might not radically improve in this area.  If so, he could move to first base, but, then Youkilis would have to play third, and Adrian Beltre, one of his recruits, is there now.     

Epstein will have to decide what deal, if any, to make at the trading deadline.  Should the team give away players – like perhaps pitcher Clay Buchholz – to get a hitter like Adrian Gonzalez, or, perhaps concede the 2010 season and wait until the off-season to stock up on bats?

These are tough choices, especially in Boston, where fans in the past 25 years or so, have always expected at least a competitive team.  Right now, I think the current team will finish behind the Yankees and Rays and perhaps even slip to .500 status, but, its starting pitching seems good enough to prevent a losing record. 

Notice how gloomy I’m sounding after only three weeks?  Well, you need hitting to win, but the signs have been even worse!  Josh Beckett, who the Sox just signed to a new, four-year deal, has been quite unimpressive so far.  He’s 1-0 with 3 no-decisions and a 5.26 ERA, but, what’s more troubling is that he’s throwing with less velocity than the past few years.  (Beckett relies heavily on his fastball).  This has been unmentioned by Boston baseball writers so far, but, most of Beckett’s fastballs have been clocked at 93 mph – or a bit lower – rather than 96 mph – a common speed for Beckett in the past.  He’s continued his bad habit from late in 2009 of leaving fastballs over the plate, and, hitters are ready to smack them.   While Jon Lester has struggled in all three starts, I cannot believe he won’t find his stuff and be OK.  If not, the Sox record may plummet toward the Orioles’ results.

Another cause of concern beneath the radar?  Jonathan Papelbon.  While Papelbon has improved in his past two outings and increased his velocity a bit, his heater is lacking “giddy-up” — just as he lacked movement in the first part of 2009.   Last season, it took Papelbon a few months to find that “late life” in his fastball.  The difference now is that opposing hitters are much more ready to pounce on his heater.  Papelbon’s control has been so-so, as he often has had to throw repeated fastballs (fouled off) to put a hitter away rather than blowing the first few by someone — as he used to a few years ago.

Daniel Bard, the top-ranked setup pitcher now, has been fairly good, but, in only his second year, he still is learning, and, sometimes his fastballs catch too much of the plate, and, are hit hard.  Bard’s breaking stuff has improved, however.   The rest of the bullpen is a questionmark. 

So, how will Epstein and the Sox take the lemons and make lemonade somehow?  It’ll be interesting.  The odds appear stacked against this 2010 edition.

“We haven’t really done anything well, to be honest with you,” Epstein told yesterday’s Boston Globe.  “We’re not pitching, we’re not hitting, we’re not playing good defense. we’re not running the bases well.  So take your pick.”

OK, Theo.  I’ll add one more category:   The Red Sox GM has done a poor job assessing the talent on this 2010 team.    I hope he acquires more talent.

AJ: Baseball Writers Are Like Sheep

If ”pack journalism” is a generic term used to describe news reporters, I’d say it applies more sweepingly to baseball writers.  Is there a less original group of journalists out there? 

Baseball writers always seem to be all stressing the same themes at the same time.  Making the same predictions.  Praising the same players, and, “buying” the same lines from GMs, managers or players.   They behave like sheep.

 The writers choose to take “the party line” most of the time.  So, if several leading baseball writers pick one team as “the big favorite” to win it all, most join the chorus without raising dissenting questions.   If the elite baseball writers are dumping on A-Rod, other writers seem to join in.  One minute, in 2008, they were all complaining about Manny Ramirez’ attitude.  The next minute, they were all praising his performance in Los Angeles when he ignited the Dodgers.

I raise this because the “conventional wisdom” – with the 2010 season just days away – is that the Boston Red Sox will be one of the best teams in baseball and compete for a championship.  Some are even picking the Sox to win it all.

In other years, I’ve understood some optimistic predictions about the Red Sox, but, this time, I’m puzzled.   I am not predicting a World Series title for the Sox.   I think the only way the Sox could seriously contend is by making a huge,  mid-season acquisition like Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres.

The Red Sox, right now, lack the hitting necessary to win it all…..but, because the “conventional wisdom” is that they’ll be as good as almost any other team, the facts have, typically, been downplayed by the “pack” of baseball writers.

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, has spent months gushing about the improved “run prevention” the Sox will have in 2010 with better defense brought by newcomers Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro and Mike Cameron.   Many baseball writers, while raising questions about the Sox hitting, have basically “bought” – at least to some extent – Theo’s argument.   This is unsurprising;  after all, because the “conventional wisdom” is that Theo is one of the best GMs in baseball.

Except, Mr. Whiz Kid ( Theo) makes mistakes, on occasion, just like every other GM.  In fact, it was only a year ago that baseball writers – like sheep – were heaping praise on Theo for being so smart by acquiring veteran pitchers Brad Penny and John Smoltz to join the Sox 2009 pitching staff.  How wise Theo was to get these pitchers for so little money in short-term deals, the writers crowed.   He had creatively found a way to counter the Yanks’ signing stud hitter Mark Teixeira. 

Then, Penny and Smoltz didn’t do that well, especially Smoltz, and I don’t recall any baseball writers discussing how Theo’s commitment to these two guys damaged the Sox season.  In fact, after a bit of initial success, Penny’s outings deteriorated and Smoltz pitched poorly the entire time.   For one stretch, the Sox kept putting Smoltz out there and he kept losing badly and looking horribly on the mound, but, it seemed it was more important to the organization to give Smoltz a chance than the 2009 team.  Meanwhile, Clay Buchholz didn’t get called up to start until after the All-Star break partly because these two veteran pitchers were in the rotation.

Theo Epstein was responsible for Penny and Smoltz, but, he escaped virtually any criticism for the team using them so much.  The Sox somehow made the playoffs by beating up on bad teams before getting swept by the Angels.  Mark Teixeira, meanwhile, (the guy the Red Sox let get away) helped lead the Yankees to a World Series victory.

Likewise, Theo was widely praised, when he acquired veteran closer Eric Gagne at the trading deadline in 2007.  Gagne, a former Cy Young winner coming back from injuries, was viewed as a guy who could be a terrific set-up guy before closer Jonathan Papelbon came in.  As it turned out, Gagne was a total bust.  He was so terrible that he barely pitched in the playoffs as the Sox went on to win the World Series.  

I fully accept that ups and downs come with any GM’s guesswork.  What gets on my nerves is how baseball writers seem predisposed to spew whatever the conventional line is at a given moment in a given season. 

At the moment, I think baseball writers want the Red Sox- Yankees rivalry to continue, and for the Sox to succeed because, let’s face it:  When the Red Sox are in the race, baseball is more interesting for millions of fans in Red Sox Nation — meaning all over the country. 

But, I see some national and local baseball writers who are glossing over the glaring weaknesses in the Sox hitting lineup.  Jason Stark of ESPN just wrote a piece arguing the Red Sox hitting will be better than some think, but, his arguments seemed weak.  He quoted David Ortiz and hitting coach Dave Magadan a lot about how they feel upbeat  and mentioned the Sox stat for “runs scored” in 2009.  Yet, the Sox scored a big chunk of their runs in 2009 against bad teams like the Orioles while faring poorly against good pitching.

 I think Theo Epstein spoke more of the truth when, he made his infamous, off-the-cuff remark this past winter that 2010 would be a “bridge” year for the Red Sox.   A transition year when certain veteran players’ contracts would end and several of the youngest, hottest prospects in the Sox farm system would get closer to the “Show.”

Hey, I hope the baseball “pack” turns out to be more right than me about the Red Sox fortunes in 2010.   But, I will always wish that baseball writers didn’t all fall into the herd so much.

Big Mike: Making A Cadillac Payment On A Chevy

John Lackey is good. That’s as far as I’ll go. As I wrote earlier, I like good, smart pitchers. I’d rather have a staff filled with competent, cagey starters than one top heavy with an ace and a near-ace followed by a bunch of question marks.

Theo gave Lackey $17M/year for five years. The Boston boss can afford the investment even if Lackey breaks down or suddenly becomes more hittable. The Sox and the Yanks are the only two teams in baseball that can make such a deal with a pitcher of his caliber and not be financially hamstrung for a half decade. More power to Epstein and Brian Cashman.

Had Hungry Jim Hendry or Kenny Williams made the deal, though, I’d have called for their scalps.

Let’s take a look at your new mound star. He has excellent control, rarely gives up a home run and has a decent strike out rate. I’d be worried, though, about his hit-ability. For his career, Lackey has given up 9.1 hits per nine innings. He’s not dominating. At $85M, I’d want dominating. Then again, I’d never make an $85M investment in a pitcher in the first place, even if he gave up only seven hits per nine.

It seems that Lackey hit his peak in 2007, when he was 28, and now has settled in as a nice, plus pitcher. His value isn’t in being the untouchable force of nature that Pedro Martinez was. It’s that, with him, the Boston rotation is becoming full. It’s solid from 1 through 4 with only joker being Clay Buchholz, in the back-end spot. I agree with you — I’d turn the kid over to the highest bidder in a heartbeat in exchange for some more offensive firepower and then look for a number five guy at a bargain rate.

Here’s where I’ll give Theo even more credit. He was reported to be interested in Rich Harden. Thank your lucky stars Harden signed with the Rangers for one year plus a mutual-option second year with a $1M buyout. He’ll make at least $7.5M for 2010 and could, conceivably, earn $20 for the full two years. He ain’t gonna make the 20. Harden’s got electrifying stuff but his control blows and he kills bullpens. I’ve got to think that Theo knew that even better than I do and his purported interest was nothing more than smoke being blown by Harden’s agent.

Instead, Epstein gets a good, solid, dependable righthander. I like the additition of Lackey, AJ, I just don’t like the amount being sunk into him. But, If you’ve got it to sink, you may as well sink it.

Speaking of sinking, the Cubs are still looking for someone to take Milton Bradley off their hands.

Big Mike: Wherein I Commence Solving The Red Sox’ Problems

AJ, get down on your knees and pray tonight to the god that I don’t believe in that Theo gets Miguel Cabrera.

The Tigers, apparently, have him on the block. I guess they’re shedding payroll which is a damned shame. They came back from that nearly historic, disastrous 2003 season to make the World Series three years later. They’ve got talent but don’t want to pay for it anymore. The fans, apparently, be damned.

Cabrera first came to my attention in ’03. I won’t be more specific other than to say I loathe the Florida Marlins (Dusty Baker, too.) The man can rake. If Theo sends a package led by Buchholz to Motown, you’ve got one of your two needed sluggers.

If it happens, what would you do? Move Youkilis to third and have Cabrera play first, or vice versa?

Big Mike: Hermida’s A Smart Pickup

Further proof that Theo Epstein is brilliant — the acquisition of Jeremy Hermida.

 

I love this kid. He’s been playing in a park that kills him. Epstein bought low and there’s next to no risk. If he doesn’t work out, release him. I’d been hoping Hungry Jim Hendry would pick Hermida up for a couple of years now. But, no, he was too busy showering Milton Bradley and Aaron Miles with millions of dollars.

 

Jeremy Hermida may or may not work out for the Red Sox, but his acquisition is the difference between the Carmines (two World Series victories in the last six years) and the Cubs (zero World Series victories since proto-humans descended from the trees in the African savannah some four millions years ago.)

Big Mike: My Heart Bleeds For You, AJ

Poor AJ. His boys won 95 games in 2009. Apparently they were the wrong kind of wins. Or something.

I would have sawed off my right pinkie for 95 wins (not my left pinkie, though, since I’m trying to learn how to play the guitar.)

Are your fears for the Flaming Hose really warranted? Ortiz’s RBI were “quiet”? Bay “put up terrific numbers but… he’s a bit overrated”? Papelbon “gave up walks or hits and often had difficulty finishing batters off”? Ellsbury “can be pitched to by better pitchers”? Sheesh!

Whaddya want 105 wins?

I suppose the answer yes. Who wouldn’t want 105 wins? But no one — repeat, no one — can construct a team with the expectation that they’ll win 105. Not even the colossus that occupies new Yankee Stadium won 105 (of course, they did knock off 103 opponents but let’s not quibble.)

Have the Red Sox and their fans become — dare I say it — too demanding? It seems a short half decade ago, il Nazione del Calzini Rossi would have been thrilled to string up 95 fascisti. Now, 95 wins — bah! A bag of shells.

Were I the majordomo of the Sox, I wouldn’t worry too much about Papelbon’s walks or hits (his WHIP stood at a fine 1.15.) If Bay’s putting up terrific numbers, I’d say, Keep it up, Jason my boy. As for Ellsbury’s problems with better pitchers? Um, I’d guess the reason those guys are “better pitchers” is because they get most guys out, period.

I would fret a little about David Ortiz. He’s now 34 years old and weighs 230 pounds — at least that’s what the Red Sox web site claims. His bathroom scale might dissent. His best years are like a big ass — behind him. Then again, most AL teams would drool over the prospect of their DHs putting up mediocre Ortiz numbers. The Boston club really ain’t got much to worry about does it?

Sometimes fans and even GMs can overreact. Take last off-season. After the Cubs had led the National League with 97 wins, they went out and jumped in front of that speeding bus from LA. Fans boo-hooed as if the Cubs had gone sub-.500. Lou Piniella suggested that maybe the team needed a left handed bat to counteract teams loading up with righthanders against them — as the Dodgers did. Hungry Jim Hendry promptly turned over 40 percent of his roster, mainly in an effort to afford the $30M/3-year deal he bestowed upon Milton Bradley.

Pardon me while I have a seizure. Gurgle, gulp, ack-ack-ack. The memory of the Bradley signing is now a lesion in my brain that occasionally causes electrical disturbances among my remaining several hundred neurons. Ah — all better now.

Hendry dumped Mark DeRosa, Kerry Wood and Jason Marquis, all in an effort to squeeze Gameboard into the budget. The 2009 team could have used a nice fifth starter like Marquis (who, by the way, went to the all-star game.) They would have benefitted greatly from DeRosa’s 23 home runs, especially in Aramis Ramirez’s absence. Wood? Well, he stunk the joint up with the Tribe but he still was better than the execrable Kevin Gregg.

Be careful what you wish for, AJ. What’s Theo Epstein to do? Look for a centerfielder? Yeah, you could do better than young Jacoby. You could grab Carlos Beltran from the Mets and hope he thrives in Fenway. But at what cost?

Should Theo let Bay or Drew walk? Whaddya gonna do then? Play Joey Gathright and Rocco Baldelli?

In terms of planning, a good GM walks the tightrope. He (or she — Kim Ng, I hear, is in the running for the Padres job) can’t rely on an unchanging roster year after year. He also can’t swap his assets like so many baseball cards.

The Big Mike Philosophy of Building a Baseball Team, taught at the better universities around the country, holds that the GM should build his team with an aim to win 90 games. If your team is a consistent 90-game-winner, you’ll be battling for the division title every single year. And while the team may occasionally dip to 84-78, it’ll just as often rise to 96-66. That’s definite Champagne territory.

Now you may say 96 wins is fine for the Minnesota Twins or the Colorado Rockies but the Red Sox share a division with the Yankees. Okay. Let the Yanks spend $200M every year and win the East. It’s no dishonor to sneak into the playoffs via the Wild Card. In fact, the Red Sox of 2004 rode that ticket to their first World Series win in 10,000 years (that ancient triumph over the hated Jericho Palms!)

Just because New York assembled an all-star team and danced to the division title doesn’t mean Theo (and you) should panic. Theo (and you) should start planning for a future without Big Papi but the current lineup built around Pedroia, Bay, Youkilis and Martinez (assuming everybody’s re-signed) is scarier than a Glenn Beck commentary.

Boston is a lock to win at least 90 in 2010. Even if David Ortiz’s bat continues to soften and Josh Beckett’s back continues to throb, the Red Sox, along with the Yankees and Angels, will be the cream of the league. You worry too much.

Me? I’ve got Bradley in right field, Carlos Zambrano on the mound, and a century-plus of losing on my mind. I worry.

Big Mike: The Nomar Trade

MLB Trade Rumors, one of my favorite sites, talks today about the Red Sox shortstop hole since the team traded Nomar Garciaparra to the Cubs in 2004. According to mlbtr, the Cherry Hose have used 19 shortstops in the intervening years. Yikes.

The Nomar deal was Jim Hendry at both his best and his worst.

I heard about the deal on the radio on a Saturday afternoon, the day of the trading deadline, moments before a game against the Phillies. The Cubs, of course, were scuffling to return to the post-season after they, gulp, had come within five outs of the World Series the previous year. In fact, Sports Illustrated’s baseball preview issue that March had featured Kerry Wood on the cover along with the heart-breaking prediction, “Hell Freezes Over: The Cubs Will Win The World Series!” The dopes.

Nomar Fucking Garciaparra! I could not believe my ears. He was one of the holy trinity of shortstops of the late 90 and early aughts. He, A-Rod and Jeter. The three had revolutionized the position. Oh sure, there’d been slugging shortstops before — our very own Ernie, Milwaukee’s Yount, the Tigers’ Trammell, and the Orioles’ Ripken, but they were anomalies, outliers. No team had a right to expect its shortstop to slug 30 homers or hit in the .370s. But Nomar and his fellow Short-sketeers did that kind of thing and more.

Nomar Garciaparra. The Cubs were nine games over .500 that day. They stood in second place 10 games behind the surprising Cardinals. There was still plenty of time to catch the Birds or, failing that, to win the Wild Card. All the Cubs had to do was make the post-season. With that starting pitching — Wood, Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano, Greg Maddux and Matt Clement — the Cubs would scare the poo out of all comers in the playoffs. The shortstops prior to the deal had been Ramon Martinez and Alex S. Gonzalez. Nice fellows, I’m sure. Loved by their families. Upstanding citizens. Horseshit shortstops.

Jim Hendry smelled blood that Saturday and arranged the mother of all four-team trades. Working with Theo Epstein in Boston as well as the Twins and the A’s, Hendry snagged Nomar Garciaparra. The team was complete. Not a hole in the lineup.

When Hendry sets his sights on a target, he’ll move heaven and Earth to get him. When Johnnie B. Baker seemed to have fallen out of favor with the Giants at the end of the 2002 season, Hendry bided his time as all the other candidates he’d interviewed for his vacant manager’s position took jobs elsewhere. No one could say if the Giants would retain their World Series skipper. But Hendry still waited. Some ten days after the Series ended, Hendry and Baker held a press conference together.

After the Cubs had stunk up the joint in 2006, finishing last with a 66-96 record, Hendry identified Lou Piniella as the man who’d lead them out of the darkness. Lou, who was 62 at the time and happy doing occasional color commentary for Fox Sports, was persuaded to come aboard thanks to Hendry’s silver tongue and TribCo’s fat wallet.

Then Hendry spied Alfonso Soriano on the free agent market. Possessed of rabbit speed and Paul Bunyan power, Soriano was the jewel of the 2006-07 off-season. Hendry outbid the Angels and others for his services over dinner one November night. He told Fonzie they wouldn’t leave the table until the player had shaken on a deal.

Last off-season, Lou hinted to Hungry Jim that the Cubs might want to add a little left-handed thunder to the lineup. Whereupon Hendry inked Milton Bradley, who’d just turned in the season of his career.

It’s refreshing to have a Cub honcho who’s greedy, impatient, unafraid to take a gamble,  and doesn’t care how much he has to spend to bring a winner to Wrigley. And Hendry is nothing but greedy, whether it comes to Jack Daniel’s, crullers or big-name outfielders.

On the other hand, with the arguable exception of Lou, each of the aforementioned coups looks like the result of a man picking answers out of a hat. Yeah sure, Baker was known as a players’ managers who could handle moody superstars but he also had a rep as a destroyer of young arms. The core of the team Hendry entrusted Dusty with was that young pitching staff. Oops.

Soriano was hoped to challenge the 40-40 barrier every year for the foreseeable future when he became a Cub. But his are a young player’s skills and he was already approaching his mid-30s.

Bradley, of course, has long been known as the loose cannon of the big leagues. Yet Hendry still exposed him to the pressure cooker that is Wrigleyville. That big left-handed bat, impaired by several mini-nervous breakdowns this past summer, produced a single home run and a paltry nine RBI.

Even the Lou hiring can be second guessed. Piniella remade the team in his image, sure, refashioning the attitude in the clubhouse in the process. But when the Cubs backslid this year, the old goat seemed as interested in the proceedings as a freshman in algebra class.

So, yeah, the Bosox have burned through 19 shortstops since they exiled Nomar to the North Side. But they knew that despite his big name, Garciaparra was about finished being Garciaparra. He was rapidly and dramatically becoming just another ballplayer. They found a willing taker in a man who loves Big Names.

The Red Sox, though, have won the World Series twice since that deal. The Cubs? Well…, you know.