Will Daisuke Matsuzaka return to top form for the Red Sox in 2010?
Dice-K was “the forgotten man” for the Red Sox in 2009. A hidden asset. He developed arm problems so early that he missed most of the season and made only a small contribution. His absence hurt the team as the Sox were forced to use both Brad Penny and John Smoltz as starters in the first half – with only limited success. Penny started well, but faded badly, and Smoltz, who the team was exceedingly patient with, never found his groove.
If Matsuzaka can return to top form, it would have a huge impact on the Red Sox, who, would then have a fourth first-rate starter to go with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buccholz. Tim Wakefield is slated to return as the fifth starter.
I think Matsuzaka has a good chance to be a solid contributor in 2010.
What’s amazing is the extent to which expectations for Dice-K have diminished so much since his much-heralded introduction to the Red Sox in 2007. He’s been through some real ups and downs, and, in Boston, where everything is dramatized and exaggerated by the Boston sports media. It’s tough to play here – and more tougher if you’re Japanese and just getting familiar to the culture – and the routines both on and off the field.
For instance, even though Matsuzaka finished his 2008 season in Boston with an amazing 18 – 3 record, outsiders would be baffled at the constant criticism he took on talk radio and from the sports media. You see, his record was misleading because Dice-K, for the large majority of starts in 2008, lasted only five innings or a tiny bit more. He had a bad habit of throwing too many pitches in the early innings and his short outings took a toll on the bullpen. He tended to “nibble” on the corners rather than challenge hitters with strikes when the count got near-full or full; so, he walked many batters and struggled through many outings. Yet, in the end, Dice-K pitched brilliantly out of jams. His record pitching with the bases loaded is incredibly good – and, he won 18 games!
Recent signs suggest that Matsuzaka will at least put himself in the best possible position to succeed in 2010. I read a Boston Globe report that Matsuzaka plans to return to the US (from Japan) earlier than usual (by late December) to begin his winter work-out program and that he’s considering working out at the Athletes Performance Institute in Phoenix, Arizona – which teammate Dustin Pedroia introduced him to. Red Sox GM Theo Epstein has said he expects Matsuzaka to show up at 2010 Spring Training in top condition – unlike what happened last spring.
Over last summer, it became common knowledge that the Red Sox felt that Matsuzaka had showed up in less-than-adequate shape for 2009 Spring Training. Many observers felt he also put extra strain on his arm by pitching in the World Baseball Classic, which also caused him to miss a chunk of spring training. Regardless, Dice-K had to be totally shut down before starting conditioning from scratch and gradually developing new strength in his shoulder and arm. Complicating things further, a disagreement between Dice-K and the team emerged over how frequenly he should throw during his recovery period. At one point, pitching coach John Farrell and manager Terry Francona, each uncharacteristically, criticized Dice-K publicly, and, in rather scolding language. But, calm was quickly restored, and, by late August, Matsuzaka was ready to return to the club. He returned looking thinner and was said to be in great shape.
No one knew what to expect in his first starts back, but, he looked sharp quite quickly. In fact, his fastball – though not always with the high velocity he had in 2007 – had the old “zip” (movement) on it that he had in 2007 – and hitters were swinging and missing. His slider looked good- as it usually does. Dice-K has a number of other pitches that he throws unpredictably.
Dice-K has pitched quite well for the Red Sox since they signed him before the 2007 season. His record in 2007 was 15 – 12; he then posted a stunning record of 18 – 3 in 2008 before finishing his limited 2009 with a 4 – 6 record.
When he arrived in 2007, there was much hope he’d be a real star like he was in Japan. After only a few starts, however, it became clear that Matsuzaka faced new, different obstacles in the US. First, it was learned later, he found he had to make a major adjustment to throwing the American baseball, which is a bit larger than the baseball in Japan. I believe this has significantly influenced Dice-K’s entire experience in the US. Sometimes, you notice he seems to suddenly throw balls way out of the strike zone sort of “out of the blue” and his control has rarely been consistently good for several consecutive games. Often he walks four or five players during a start.
Plus, apparently, Dice-K has chosen to not throw his changeup that often in the US even though it was his BEST pitch in Japan! The reason, again, is apparently related to the different “feel” he gets with the baseball here.
Though I found this fact about his changeup a major Sox news development, it has barely received any attention among Boston baseball writers. Instead, ESPN’s Peter Gammons, in a column, wrote about Matsuzaka having to adjust which pitches he used and Gammons quoted Sox pitching coach John Farrell. I remember Farrell, at the end of the 2008 season, saying he and Dice-K had agreed to remove more than one pitch from his repertoire in order to be more effective.
In addition, Matsuzaka had never faced the tough, experienced hitters he faced in the American League East. Interestingly, in his first couple of starts against the Yankees in 2007, I remember he survived decently by using his breaking pitches. The Yankees weren’t as accustomed to facing a pitcher who threw so many breaking pitches in fastball counts.
Yet, the Red Sox have repeatedly urged Matsuzaka to be unafraid to use his fastball more often, and, whenever necessary, to put away hitters. If Dice-K can retain the movement on his fastball he had at the end of the 2009 season, he could start 2010 in fine condition. If his fastball works OK, Dice-K’s assortment of breaking pitches – slider, curve, cutter, occasional splitter, and occasional changeup – become much tougher to connect on.
I think the Red Sox expect good things from Matsuzaka in 2010 even though many fans have less patience with him. 2010 may be his last great chance to shine in Boston because: a) If he fails, the Sox may grow tired after all they’ve invested in him and he may be traded; b) His arm does have a lot of wear and tear on it from years in Japan, so he’s a bit past his prime; and, c) The Sox will have given him every chance to succeed, and, if he doesn’t they could still probably pull a trade because his salary is only $8 million. (The Sox payment of $51 million just to win the rights to talk to Dice-K back when they signed him would not be a factor in a hypothetical trade).
My money is on Dice-K returning to win at least 15 games in 2010, if he’s healthy.
