Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, on March 16th, posted a column on S.I.com with a simple, but, compelling premise — That, in analyzing the Red Sox-Yankees’ rivalry in 2010, he thinks “the team that gets the most starts out of its planned five-man rotation will be the better team.”
Verducci acknowledges that former Sox ace Curt Schilling stressed this point to him years ago. He provides statistics that show that from 2003 – 2009, that in all but one season, the team with the most starts from its five starters won the most games.
As a Red Sox fan who almost always views the Yankees as “stocked with more talent,” it’s hard for me to buy this pitching theory hook, line and sinker. Yet, it’s hard to dispute, in many ways, too.
Verducci points out that the Yankees rotation is “far more reliable” and includes “three of the nine most durable starters in baseball over the past five years as measured by innings” in CC. Sabathia, Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez.
Let’s face it: If these Yankee pitchers, along with A.J. Burnett, pitch nearly as well as they did in 2009, the Red Sox will not have a chance vs. the Yanks in 2010. Why? Because the Red Sox hitting is now even more inferior to the the Yankees’ hitting than in 2009. In fact, I’d argue that the Yanks’ pitching could drop by a substantial margin this year and they’ll probably still be close to, or, even ahead of, the Red Sox. The Yankees’ hitting is good enough to win many games in which their starters pitch either average or poorly. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are not built that way. If their starters don’t perform, the team will lose far more games, and, fall out of contention.
Verducci cites the reliability of Sabathia, Pettite and Vazquez. I have trouble seeing Sabathia duplicate his incredible 2009 performance. It’s hard for any pitcher to do. Sabathia went 19-8 last year, with a 3.37 E.R.A., but, significantly, he pitched 230 innings. Then, he pitched another 36 innings in the playoffs, bringing his overall total to 266 innings. This is a guy who pitched 253 innings in 2008. I doubt Sabathia will be as fresh and strong toward the end of 2010, but, who knows?
I’ve been predicting Pettitte would deteriorate almost every season, and, been wrong each time. This year, isn’t he a bit more likely to break down or show the effects of his his long career? I think the odds are against Pettitte being as consistent as he was last year. AJ Burnett? Prior to 2009, this guy had been on the DL so many times for injuries and ailments that it tainted his image. Last year, he was injury-free, posted a 13-9 record and performed decently in the playoffs, but, he pitched an overall total of 234 innnings – over his normal workload. I won’t be surprised if Burnett’s durability is a bit more shaky in 2010. Javier Vazquez has been a workhorse, but, the big question for him is: Can he perform as well in the AL East as he did in the National League? I hope not.
Of course, there is the ongoing saga of how the Yanks decide to use Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. Hughes has been far more reliable than Chamberlain, but, if Hughes returns to the rotation, he’s probably not likely to maintain the superb groove he found as a setup guy last year.
So, there are at least, questions about the Yankees’ pitching.
As for the Red Sox, they’d appear to be poised to be a bit more durable than in 2009. I say that partly because Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched only a small part of last season due to injury, and, if he can get over spring ailments, should be stronger in 2010. The word is he’s lost weight and is in terrific shape.
Jon Lester appears strong and ready to keep excelling. He’s the new ace of the staff. Josh Beckett faces more questions than anyone, in my view. Is his arm strong, or, breaking down somewhat? He has to prove he’s OK because his pattern is to become worn down by late August. Clay Buchholz comes into 2010 with more confidence. He has to prove he can be consistent for a whole year, and, if he gets through September, he’ll be beyond his limit in innings; so, he may be vulnerable to breaking down as the playoffs approach.
The Sox, fortunately, have John Lackey this year to pick up the slack when other starters have bad outings. Lackey missed some games due to injury early last year with the Angels, but seems in good shape, and, has thrown sharply in spring training. Of course, the Red Sox also have veteran knuckleballer, Tim Wakefield, to be a reserve starter. It’s not bad to have a 6th starter who made the All-Star team last year.
So, pitching-wise, the Sox and Yanks are close, but, the difference is the Yankees can survive with mediocre pitching because they’ve got A-Rod, Jeter, Teixeira, Cano, Posada, and on and on. They did lose Matsui and Damon, but, still, their hitting, on paper, so much, much better than the Red Sox hitting – period. They’re not even close.
I think the bullpens of the two teams are not that far apart, so, in the end, this seems over-simplified and crazy, but, I think it may, again, come down to whether the Red Sox can acquire a star slugger at the trading deadline.
If the Red Sox fail to add a first-rate hitter, I don’t think the pitching durability stats that Verducci highlighted will matter as much. You need pitching and hitting to win, especially against the Yankees, in the AL East.
Bring on Adrian Gonzalez!
