AJ: I Hope Theo Doesn’t Really “Ignore” RBIs

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein had just finished praising JD Drew’s statistics for “runs scored” and “on-base percentage” during a Sept. 30th radio interview, when he expounded on the topic of RBIs.

“You guys can talk about RBIs if you want,” Epstein told interviewers Michael Felger and Tony Massarotti on “98.5:  The Sports Hub,”  “I just…we ignore them in the front office.  , and I think we’ve built some pretty good offensive clubs.  If you want to talk about RBIs at all, talk about them as a percentage of opportunity, but, it’s not a way or something we use to evaluate offensive players.”

Theo knows his stats, but, I don’t like to hear him downplay RBIs that much.   Call me a baseball “traditionalist,”  but I place a lot of weight on RBIs.  I know it’s the rage to harp on OBP and OPS, but, to me, the important, intriguing side of baseball is often who can knock in runs – especially against a front-line pitcher when the game is on the line.  Usually, who gets key RBIs involves far more than mathematical probability.  

I prefer focusing most on what I see with my eyes on the field.  I look at the human part of the game – the intangibles.  I notice which hitters get RBIs, especially on the Red Sox, but, also on other teams.  Consider the just-completed post-season, which, to me, illustrated the limited value of stats.  First, in the Angels’ LDS and LCS series, which Angels’ hitter got the most hits and RBI?  It was Vladimir Guerrero, who most baseball pundits had written off as a player in decline.  Meanwhile Chone Figgins, the Angels’ electric leadoff hittter, had another horrible postseason, barely getting the bat on the ball, and Jeff Mathis, a backup catcher, hit better than most of his Angel teammates.

Do stats explain this?  No.  Are there intangible factors that seemed to come into play?  Yes.  The Angels, including Figgins, did not look confident or loose at times.  Maybe Vlad and Mathis were loose. 

Then, consider a few Yankees to further make the point.   Alex Rodriguez had his best post-season.  Again, stats were irrelevant in predicting that.  Instead, A-Rod’s performance likely had more to do with him feeling looser and feeling less internal or external pressure.   Maybe Kate Hudson helped.  Who knows?  Mark Teixeira didn’t hit that well, but, it was his first post-season for the Bombers.  Robinson Cano didn’t hit that well, but, I’ve noticed he’s seems to tighten up a bit in the playoffs.

My point here is that it takes skill, attitude, focus and learned habits to become a great RBI hitter.   Manny Ramirez has hit a TON of RBIs, perhaps because of his being loose, but focused in his at-bast, including the big ones.

Having an ability to hit different pitches from different pitchers when men are on base involves skill, but, also, a special focus and some intangibles that aren’t always reflected in stats.    For instance, take Mike Lowell on the Red Sox.  He’s a good fastball hitter who often struggles hitting breaking pitches, but, when Lowell is up with guys on base and facing two strikes, Lowell chokes up on the bat to improve his chances for making contact.  Lowell is a better hitter with men on base and gets more RBIs than some of his teammates.  He has a good attitude at the plate and does whatever he can to knock the ball to the outfield.

Derek Jeter is about the best example imaginable of having an “RBI mentality.”  With men on base, Jeter adjusts his swing – often to that “inside-out” approach – and often sticks his bat out to make contact.  How many times have we seen Jeter poke a hit just past the infield or line the ball to right to knock in key runs in a playoff game?

Well, I’d argue that this kind of ability at the plate is an invaluable skill for a player.   It means far more than OBP or runs scored.  Lowell, by the way, in my view, is a much better baseball player than JD Drew.  Yeah, Drew knows how to draw walks and get on base, but I’d take Lowell hitting with guys on base – and, Lowell will win more games knocking in runs than Drew will with his walks.

I don’t understand these “modern” arguments that RBIs have such limited value.  Maybe Big Mike, who knows baseball stats more than me, can explain it.  But, I’m sure, in the end, I’ll still have my own interpretation.

I’ve watched far too much baseball to not have my own theories and impressions.  I watched in 1967, when Carl Yastrzemski (Yaz) had perhaps the best “clutch” season of any player I’ve seen.  It wasn’t just that Yaz knocked in one key run to help win one big game after another;  it was that the more critical  the game, the more Yaz came through.  I’m thinking about how Yaz went 7-8 in the last two games of that season and the Sox won those two games vs. the Twins and barely squeaked into the playoffs.  Years later, I watched Yaz get another big clutch hit at the 1978 one-game playoff against the Yankees.  It was his first at-bat and he was facing Ron Guidry, who went 25 – 3 that year and was on fire.   Yaz belted a line-drive home run around the right-field foul pole and I recall viewing the hit, at that moment,  as a loud “Fuck You” to the Yankees.  It gave the Sox a wake-up jolt.   A key RBI, I’d say!

Flash forward to the Sox playoff game in 1986 vs the Angels, when the Sox were down 3-1 – in an elimination game, trailing 5-2 going into the 9th inning.   First, Don Baylor, miraculously, reached out to hit an outside pitch for a two-run homer, making it 5-4.  Then, Davd Henderson, a utility outfielder till then, came up and the count ran to two strikes against him.  The Sox were one strike away from elimination.  Henderson hit a 2-run HR, the Sox won the game, then, the ACLS, before losing to the Mets in the crazy Buckner game.

Something gave Baylor and Henderson the concentration to hit those incredible clutch home runs,  but, I’m convinced many players would NOT have been equipped to do so.

 As Theo Epstein tries to strengthen the 2010 Red Sox, he should confront the fact that he lacks enough players who are good at hitting RBIs in clutch situations.  In fact, it was a huge problem on the team in 2009.  The team always left a lot of men on base, often struggling to make contact against above-average pitching.  Kevin Youkilis is good at driving men in.  Lowell is good.  Victor Martinez is good.  Yet, the rest of the lineup is not impressive with  men on base:  That includes Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz , Drew, Gonzalez.  (Ortiz his many RBIs in “garbage time” and often failed to hit with men on base)  That leaves Bay, and, believe it or not, even Bay has limitations with RBIs.  Many of his RBIs come with his home runs and, Bay went into long slumps.  Further, Bay often cannot drive players in when he’s facing pitchers with breaking stuff.  

So, the 2010 Red Sox are a far cry from the 2004 Sox;  yet, sometimes I get a sense Theo is in denial about the huge disparity in hitting that has been exposed.   Ramirez and Ortiz were RBI machines.  They’re gone and you can’t just put a few good OBP guys in a lineup and expect the same results.

So, Theo, while we know we need Red Sox players who can get on base, we also need a few guys with the makeup to drive them in.   RBIs are very important. 

AJ: Red Sox Start New Quest To Catch Yankees

It was such a typical Theo Epstein move:   The day after the 2009 World Series, the Red Sox traded two minor-league pitchers to acquire Jeremy Hermida, an outfielder for the Florida Marlins who, so far, has not played up to initial expectations.

“This was not a blockbuster,” Epstein told the Boston Globe.  “This was a value trade, a chance to get a guy with unfulfilled potential at a reasonable cost.” 

Hermida, the 11th pick in the 2002 draft, who batted .259 with 13 HRs and 47 RBIs last year, will likely be a backup outfield for the Sox, who hope he can tap more of the talent that the Marlins had hoped would blossom.

Epstein is good at making these little “value” deals.  He talks about getting good “value” all the time.   Last year, for instance, Epstein liked the upside “value” of acquiring veteran pitchers John Smoltz and Brad Penny for relatively little money and risk on the chance one or both would pitch great.

Well, that didn’t work out too well, but, Theo likes the idea of getting a player previously viewed as “borderline” and, then, getting more out of that player in Boston.   For example, getting Rocco Baldelli as a utility outfielder for last year or Casey Kotchman as a firstbaseman for the second half.  Theo sees the “value” in JD Drew that isn’t even there.

Theo’s problem is that you cannot build a bona fide contending team solely with little “value” moves.  Once in a while, you need to get a star player – a real stud who can be a cornerstone to build a team around.  Right now, the Red Sox, without their old foundation of Manny Ramirez and a potent David Ortiz, lack a player with that that heft. 

Even if the Red Sox are able to re-sign power-hitter Jason Bay in left field, they’ll still need punch in their lineup, especially as insurance if the production from either Ortiz or veteran 3rd baseman Mike Lowell drops a bit.

It’s interesting.  I’ve thought a lot recently about how, despite the impressive success of Epstein and the current Red Sox management team in recent years, they’ve signed very few “stars” to big contracts.  I think, in some ways, this has been smart because they’ve brought up terrific players from the Sox farm system like Pedroia, Youkilis, Papelbon and Bard.  However, Epstein and Company inherited a team WITH Manny Ramirez and Pedro Martinez, both acquired by Dan Duquette (who deserves more credit than he gets for that, and, for getting Johnny Damon!)  Epstein smartly dealt for Ortiz, who turned out to be about 100 times more valuable than he imagined, and, yes, the Sox made their infamous Thanksgiving, 2003 “pitch” to get Curt Schilling and got Keith Foulke before 2004 as well.

I think that, sooner or later, Theo will have to make a BIG move or two to re-make the Red Sox, who seem stuck in neutral now.  Indicators suggest the BIG moves might not come until after 2010, when contracts for Ortiz, Lowell and pitcher Josh Beckett will expire.  Beckett is expected to play out the option in the last year of his contract in 2010, but, he and his agent want to talk to the Red Sox soon about how he fits into the team’s long-term plans.   Would the Sox consider trading Beckett now rather than wait until the end of 2010?  I don’t think it’s impossible, but, they’d have to find a good replacement for him, and, I think they’ll try to keep him around.

It seems Epstein may continue making some “value” deals to improve the 2010 Red Sox while hoping he can re-sign Bay.  Yet, right now, the Sox will fall way short of the New York Yankees in 2010 – in terms of talent.  While the Sox are trying to figure out how to hold onto their existing assets, the Yankees are so stacked that they’re considering whether to let go of either Hideki Matsui, who knocked in 6 runs in Game 6 of the World Series or Damon, who was one of their other World Series stars.   The Yankee lineup and pitching rotation is expected to very similar to their 2009 team -  BAD news for the Sox and the rest of baseball. 

In Boston, there has been much talk lately about how the Yankees’ acquisition of Mark Teixeira last off-season has made – and will continue to make – an enormous difference in the direction of these two rival teams.  Many Sox fans continue to obsess about how they feel the Sox blew it in negotiations with Teixeira, who took the Yanks’ higher offer.   I have  to admit Teixeira is damned good and helped get the Yanks to the Promised Land this year….but, I think he belongs on the Pinstripes.  He’s seems like such a serious, machine-like, nerdy guy.

Nevertheless, Theo and the Red Sox will have to get a stud like Teixeira, eventually, if they are to catch the Bombers, who, at the moment, seem well-positioned to  repeat once or twice.   They need a real star – not just “value” guys.

AJ: I Predict Papelbon Will Remain for 2010

Big Mike, I agree the Red Sox view Jonathan Papelbon’s time as  The Closer is limited because of his eligibility for free agency after the 2011 season.  I disagree with you on the odds for him to be traded before 2010.  I think the Sox would prefer to get one more excellent year out of Papelbon in 2010.  Then, before or during 2011, or, immediately after 2011,  I think they’ll part ways with Pap.   And, after 2010 – with more wear and tear on Pap’s arm, they might find that a good time to deal him.   How his arm holds up is key..

First, Papelbon, despite a “bumpier” ride to another great season in 2009 — except for hit disastrous blown save in the playoffs — finished very strong in the last six weeks of the season, and, overall, posted one of the better records for closers in baseball.   He spent part of the season trying to adjust to a new pitching motion, and, I think that reduced his effectiveness at times.   Second, and this is a major factor, there is not another pitcher ready to replace Papelbon.  Daniel Bard, by all appearances, will eventually replace Papelbon, but, Bard, who throws at 100 mph,  showed, toward the end of the season, he still needed to work on his pitching - such as improving his fastball location to prevent late-inning home runs.  He needs more experience, but, signs suggest that by the end of 2010 as the team’s “8th inning” guy again, Bard, by then, might be ready to take over for Papelbon. 

In my previous blog, I mentioned the Sox, however, might think about moving Papelbon before 2010 – simply because he seemed, to me, one of the only players who they could even think about moving.   I don’t think the Sox would trade Papelbon before 2010 unless circumstances are evolving very unfavorably for them — i.e. If they lose Jason Bay to free agency, then, for whatever reasons, they cannot sign either Adrian Gonazalez or Matt Holliday, both sluggers, to replace Bay in the outfield.  Then, perhaps Theo Epstein and Sox executives might feel much more pressure to make some splash before Spring Training.

By the way, back in early 2003, with Theo Epstein his first year as GM, the Sox tried a “closer by committee” approach – which turned out to be a diaster.  (Before 2004, they got Keith Foulke as their closer and he played a critical role in the team winning the World Series)   I know Bill James was among a group consulted in those early days of designing a bullpen, but James later denied advocating for a “closer by committee.”  I think James supported the notion that there could be benefits of a closer pitching earlier than the ninth inning — if and when key situations arose.

Personally, I hated that “Closer by Committee” idea.  Wathching Papelbon embrace his role and benefit from the rituals and routine has helped convince me of that.  Mariono Rivera offers compelling signs of benefits to The Closer tradition too.

 Big Mike,  your discussion of the Red Sox reminded me, again, of the strange, new dilemmas they might face in 2010.  My guess is that the Sox position is:  If they cannot sign Jason Bay, they simply MUST sign Adrian Gonzalez, or, perhaps, even Matt Holliday.  Otherwise, the team would have an embarrassing, near-unprecedented lack of power in their hitting lineup, and, a lack of “star power.”   It’d be a rather boring lineup – like in 2009 – of good, hardworking players, who are fairly low-key, free of controversy and a bit bland, particularly in the dog days of summer as they’re going down quietly to young pitchers on dry days of August.

As I said, unless Theo Epstein and Sox owership get very creative and pull some rabbits out of their hats, 2010 may look a lot like 2009.   And they might feel an incentive to keep Papelbon, one of their only exciting “stud” players left, for one more season.  Otherwise, their “excitement gap” will be disturbingly high.   Will fans keep flocking to Fenway?  (Yes)

 

AJ: Red Sox Face Tough Choices for 2010

The Red Sox are in a major transition, but, we don’t know how much change will come before 2010, or, after next season.  

GM Theo Epstein and the Sox brass have hard choices this winter, including whether to make a big deal or two NOW  to improve the team or to stick it out in 2010 with the 2009 roster largely intact.  

It’s hard to predict.  On the one hand, Theo and company have a history of shaking things up.  On the other, this year’s class of free agents is supposed to be sub-par and perhaps the team will stand pat and hope for patience.  (Not easy given that Boston fans have no patience).

The current Red Sox executives are accustomed only to winning.   Since John Henry, Larry Lucchino and Tom Werner bought the team in 2002, the Red Sox  have made the playoffs most years, won two World Series and made it to the ACLS twice and lost.  Of course, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were the core of those teams until, for the first time, in 2009, the team had neither – if you consider that Ortiz was not his old self much of the year.  That’s why, in an important way, the Sox’ transition began during 2009, when they had to find ways to win without their old Gehrig/Ruth duo.

To the Red Sox’ credit, they found a way to win 95 games in 2009 with key contributions by pitchers Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Jonathan Papelbon and left fielder Jason Bay and newly-acquired Victor Martinez.   Yet, one sensed, as the year unfolded, that certain players were on a downhill trajectory.

Ortiz and Mike Lowell are both older and unlikely to keep producing at the same level.  Ortiz has said he plans to follow a different work-out program in the offseason.  Maybe he can improve a bit, but signs in 2009 suggest he’ll face limitations in 2010.   Lowell, with a bad hip all of 09, hit well, but is also in the ending phase of his career.

 Though knuckleballer Tim Wakefield is recovering from surgery on a herniated disc and says he intends to return, it’s hard to expect much from him.  He’s 43 and has broken down at the end of recent seasons.  Catcher Jason Varitek, long the captain and a team leader,  must decide if he wants to be the backup to Martinez.  Varitek is good with pitchers, but, on his last legs as a performer.

Theo can count on quite a few key players – including the starting pitching rotation – to return.  The challenge will be keeping the team’s offense strong, particularly if Jason Bay signs elsewhere.  The Sox are expected to talk to Bay in the days after the World Series when they have exclusive rights to talk to him, but, if they cannot reach agreement then, Bay will probably attract higher offers elsewhere and leave.  

It seems, on what we know, that the Sox have only a few options.  One might be trying to make a trade for Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres, but, that’s all speculative, and, who knows if the teams could work that out.

One of the only players I think the Sox might think about trading is Papelbon.  I doubt it’ll happen because Pap is still so good, and, Daniel Bard, his heir apparent, is young and still inexperienced to assume the closer role.  However,  Papelbon is unlikely to remain on the team more than another year.  He, himself, has said he wants to cash in on a big deal.  So, in many ways, he’s the only significant “chip” the Sox have. 

Who else would they trade?  Not Ellsbury, Pedroia or Youkilis – all young and viewed as “the future.”  Not Victor, who helped revive the team in mid-season.  JD Drew, at $14 million a year,  is untradeable.  Ortiz and Lowell are old and unlikely to draw interest.    Neither of their two shortstops, veteran Alex Gonzalez or Jed Lowrie, would bring much.  They’ll want to hang onto their pitchers:  Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Matsuzaka, Bard, Okajima, Ramon Ramirez.   Maybe they’ll trade Manny Delcarmen, but, not for much.

So….either the Sox get lucky and sign Bay OR they put a few prospects or players together in a deal to get Adrian Gonzalez OR they choose the wild option of dealing Papelbon.   If none of these work out, what options will Theo have?

The Red Sox are one of  many teams talking to Aroldis Chapman, the 21-year-old, Cuban left-handed “stud” pitcher who throws a 100 mph fastball.   Even if the Sox win that competition, Chapman needs time in minors.

There are a few promising young players on the way up – including budding shortstop Jose Iglesias and pitcher/shortstop Casey Kelley, but, reportedly, they need more time in the minors.

2009 was another excellent year for the Sox, but, they got swept in the playoffs and fell short of the Yankees in more ways than one.  The Sox went after Mark Teixeira very aggressively, but, he chose the Yankees, who offered him $10 million more.

The Yanks appear ready to bring back most  of their roster for 2010.  If the Red Sox don’t make a big move, they appear poised to fall short again, but, perhaps by a greater margin.

If I had to guess, I believe Theo Epstein will, again, surprise us with a significant move before 2010 spring training.  It’s just my hunch.

Pedro Showed His Stuff Even In Phillies’ Loss

Call me crazy, but, I felt Pedro Martinez’ performance last night was extraordinary.   I will remember it for a long time.

Why?  Because Pedro overcame tremendous odds and obstacles to perform as well as he did.   Pedro, 38,  had pitched only since August, when he joined the Phillies’ rotation.   With diminished skills, an 89 mph fastball, and less consistent bite in some of his other pitches, Pedro would have to summon all his creative powers if he was to make it through that lineup of Yankee hitters — one of the best in baseball history.  Plus, he’d been sick the past two days.

I was one of many who didn’t think he’d survive long.  I thought Yankee hitters would be patient and sit on his fastball.   What I didn’t realize was the extent to which Pedro had reinvented himself since I last watched him!

Pedro used his changeup and curve so often and effectively that he fooled Yankee hitters during much of his six-inning outing.  His off-speed stuff was so good that his fastball appeared faster to hitters.   He kept hitters guessing all night and managed to strike out both Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez twice.   That was no easy task for Pedro even back in 2004.

Pedro moved the ball around in the zone and mixed his speeds.  He was so careful, knowing he had to be precise with his location, or, he’d get knocked around.  I had never seen him throw so much breaking and off-speed stuff for an entire outing, and, likewise, I’d never seen him “fool” hitters by surprisingly throwing a fastball.  He’s made a full transformation to a slower, finesse pitcher.

Most of the time, he kept the Bombers off balance.  Mark Teixeira hit his home run by waiting for a changeup, but, Hideki Matsui hit his home run by golfing a very low pitch over the short right-field fence.  I thought Matsui’s home run was a fluke.   

The story would’ve been nicer if Pedro had gotten the win, but the Phillies couldn’t hit A.J. Burnett, anyway. 

I had never expected to see Pedro at center stage again.   He had lost his effectiveness a few years ago, before having shoulder surgery.  Then, even after rehabbing, it wasn’t clear he could regain his form.   He considered retirement as he waited to find a team that’d pay him what he felt he deserved.  The Phillies were smart to sign him in July, and, I feel we’ve been lucky to see Martinez’ two sharp starts in the playoffs.  

I just love watching an athlete defy the odds and the pundits.   To me, Pedro did that last night.  Many baseball writers and fans overlooked how unlikely it was for him to hold his own vs. the 2009 Yankees.

Whenever a Red Sox pitcher this year (or, in recent years) held the Yankees to two or three runs over six or seven innings, I considered that a very good outing.  

I considered Pedro’s outing last night even more special due to all he overcame.

AJ: Pedro Faces His Worst Pitching Jam

Preface:  Pedro Martinez is my favorite athlete of all time.  I appreciated every minute of Pedro’s time in Boston and will never forget his brilliant, unique pitching talent or colorful personality. 

That’s precisely why I wish the Phillies were not starting him in Game Two of the World Series against the Yankees.   It’s unrealistic to expect Pedro, now 38, with a limited pitching arsenal, to contain perhaps the most potent Yankee lineup of all time.  

I think Phillies’ manager Charlie Manuel is badly misjudging the situation.   He has said it’s the kind of big-pressure moment made for Pedro, but, he’s not focusing realistically on the hitters facing Pedro.  It’s a good story, for sure.  People love seeing Pedro, but, he’s no longer equipped to deal with the Yankees.

I hope so, so much that I am wrong.  I’d be THRILLED to watch Pedro miraculously find a way to contain the Yankees for six or seven innings and complete a good start.

Yet, it’s hard for The Best pitchers to get through this Yankee lineup.  Pedro is about nine years beyond his prime.  I don’t know how Pedro will get his much slower 89 or 90 mph fastball by Yankee hitters.  I know he’s relied a lot on his terrific change-up this year, but, he’ll have to mix his pitches creatively to prevent the Bombers from hitting him, particularly in the second or third time through the lineup.

Consider what John Smoltz just told Tom Verducci, in an article posted yesterday on CNN/SI yesterday.  Smoltz said the Yankee lineup is so good that he’d suggest bringing in a new pitcher every two or three innings - like in a spring training game  - to prevent hitters from wearing the starter down.  It was the Yankees who battered Smoltz in his last start for the Red Sox in 2009, prompting the Sox to part ways with Smoltz.

It’s one thing for Pedro Martinez, in 2009,  to pitch well recently against the LA Dodgers, but, asking him to start vs. perhaps the best hitting NY Yankee lineup ever is not smart.   I think reveals how little confidence Manuel has in his other pitchers.  

I used to worry how Pedro Martinez would get through the Yankees’ line-up five or six years ago – and, believe it or not, it was because Pedro, in 2003 and 2004, had lost some velocity on his fastball and some consistency in his changeup and curve.   Back then, Pedro could still, on occasion, have a very good start vs. the Yanks, but, in 2004, he struggled more and more against the Bombers.  In fact, after he lost yet another game against them, he commented, famously, “….”I just tip my hat and call the Yankees my Daddy.”

Pedro has a few fantastic memories of pitching against the Yankees.  He struck out 17 Yanks in his September, 1999, masterpiece one-hitter at old Yankee Stadium.  In the 1999 ACLS, in a highly-touted matchup vs. Roger Clemens, Pedro struck out 13 and gave up only two hits vs. the Yanks, who easily won the series.   Then there was Pedro’s enigmatic performance in Game 3 of the 2003 ACLS vs. the Yanks, which I attended at Fenway. Pedro had nothing that day, and, was really struggling as the Yanks rallied to score and threatened for more.  Suddenly, Pedro threw the ball behind Yankee Karim Garcia and the Yankee bench erupted, thinking it was an attempted beanball.  Later, both benches emptied, but, what I’ll always remember was that Pedro, who was pitching like crap at the start, found some adrenalin after the controversy, and started mowing down the Yanks for a couple of ininngs to keep the Sox in the game. 

That was vintage Pedro, finding something when he seemed to have nothing.   Of course, he did that, perhaps most heroically, in the 1999 playoff game vs the Indians, when, badly hampered by an injury, Pedro came in from the bullpen to pitch six no-hit innings against the Indians, who had a terrific lineup.  He pulled it off without despite being unable to throw his fastball normally the whole night.

Pedro was so “off the charts” good that he’d often win a game when he had only one of his three primary pitches working.   His fastball and changeup were unbelievable and his curve, in his prime, was damned good too.

Returning to Pedro’s history with the Pinstripes, Pedro gave one of his funniest one-liners, late in the 2001 season, after winning a game vs. the Bombers following several unsuccessful attempts.  Someone made a remark that prompted Pedro to comment on the so-called “Curse of the Bambino” that had jinxed the Red Sox:   

“I don’t believe in rivalries,” Pedro said.  “I don’t believe in curses.  Wake up the Bambino, maybe I’ll drill him in the ass…”

Those were the days.  Pedro was on top of the world.   I hope, somehow, he can conquer the Yankees in Game Two.   It’d be like going back in time.

AJ: Angels Went Out With A Whimper

I was really disappointed in the Angels’ showing against the Yankees.

I know they were underdogs, but, God, their hitting was pathetic.  They made errors that seemed to be due to nerves.  (or, some would say, choking)  They didn’t steal many bases, and, they just didn’t play up to their potential.  

Chone Figgins, usually a key to the Angels’ offense all year, was 3 for 23 in the ACLS.   Bobby Abreu was 4 for 25.  Kendry Morales was 4 for 24.  And so on, down the lineup.  Who would have expected that Vlad Guerrero would be the Angels’ best hitter for the series?  He hit .370 and had more hits than all his teammates.  Jeff Mathis, of all players, was the next best hitter. 

Why were they SO bad? 

 Well, the ACLS got me thinking about patterns that seem to repeat themselves every year in baseball playoff series.   One is old and simple, but always relevant:  Good pitching beats good hitting.   That certainly applied to the Yankee pitching dominating the Angels, especially the Big Man – C.C. Sabathia, who is THE hottest pitcher in the game now.   Andy Pettitte silenced the Angels too.   Yet, some of the Angel hitters seemed to be pressing.  They  seemed to take the wrong pitches or swing at the wrong pitches.  The Angels were too good a hitting team to look THAT bad!

As I watched the series unfold, I thought about another important dynamic that applies in the playoffs:  “Contact hitters” often make critical contributions in money games.  Guys like Johnny Damon, who is so damned good at having long, tough at-bats that end with him slapping the ball for a clutch hit – as he did in Game Six.  Let’s face it:  It’s because teams face the best pitchers in the playoffs that you NEED hitters who can find a way to make contact and poke a single any way they can.  I’m referring to guys who can not only hit fastballs, but breaking pitches, or, even reach out of the strike zone to place the ball to the opposite field or do whatever is necessary to get a hit.    THE question in the playoffs and World Series is whether hitters can scratch out a few meaningful hits against the big stud pitchers.  Will the Phillies, for example, get wood on the ball against Sabathia or look helpless like the Angels?  Well, I’ve noticed in my years of observing Yankee hitters that they tend to make even the best pitchers work like hell on the mound.   The Yankees hitters are unique in that almost all nine can hit for contact, and power too.  That is incredibly unusual.   Most lineups have a couple of big HR hitters and a couple of great “contact” hitters, but not whole lineups capable of extending at-bats, showing patience, fouling off pitches and hitting tough pitches the way the Bombers do.    

I have not seen Cliff Lee pitch in ages, but I have doubts that he can shut down the Yankee lineup or pitch deep into the game without his pitch count getting too  high, but I hope I’m wrong.

I thought back on past playoffs and World Series, and, while it’s easy to conclude that teams with the best pitching usually win, a corollary to that is sometimes that the winning team finds ways to put together just enough hits and walks to stay in the game — and they often do it with guys like Damon and Jeter, who can stick their bats out and knock the ball to the opposite field.

I remember, as a kid, when I was lucky enough to go to the 1967 World Series between the Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals.  This is when Bob Gibson was the Cards’ ACE.  He totally shut down the Sox, and, I recall feeling so happy when my hero at the time, Yaz, found a way to get a hit off Gibson.  I felt a little of the same when, many years later, after Dave Roberts made The Steal in the 2004 ACLS game 4 against the Yankees,  Bill Mueller, a great contact hitter, lined a single off the immortal Mariano Rivera, to tie the game. 

It’s hard enough to hit a 95 mph pitch, but, hitting the ball off the best pitchers – under enormous pressure in the playoffs – often is what separates the men from the boys in baseball.

Big Mike: We Both Hate The Rich

How right you are my dear Mr. Ajemian. I studied the lineups of every team from 1956 to this day and found only one that could come near the top-to-bottom goodness of the Yankees’ 2009 batting order.

In 1999, the Indians scored more than a thousand runs — something done only once since the Great Depression (by your Red Sox in 1950). The Tribe batting order usually went something like this:

cf Kenny Lofton

ss Omar Vizquel

2b Roberto Alomar

1b Jim Thome

rf Manny Ramirez

lf David Justice

3b Travis Fryman

dh Wil Cordero

c Einar Diaz

We’re talking four future Hall of Famers (Vizquel, Alomar, Thome and Manny), two other guys who turned in sparkling careers (Lofton and Justice) and another (Fryman), who at his peak was good for 20 homers and 90 to 100 rbi per year. And just for kicks, they could bring Richie Sexson, Sandy Alomar Jr. and Harold Baines off the bench. Wow!

Sadly, though, Fryman was no longer at his peak and Cleveland had to lug around Diaz’s bats. They should have billed him for shipping charges. Diaz might have been a fine handler of pitchers and field general but as a hitter, he blew.

No one in the 2009 Yankees lineup was as impotent as Einar Diaz. The weak link in the Bombers order was cf Melky Cabrera, whose production, based on OPS+, was a hair below the league average.

The Tribe might have had a little edge on the Yankees in that they had firepower on the bench. New York really had a crappy bench this past season but that’s irrelevant — you challenged me to find a better starting lineup than the Yankees and I couldn’t.

If the Yankees don’t win the World Series this month, it will be an upset of historic proportions.

So how did the Yankees build this offensive juggernaut? Five of their nine hitters are home grown, two came in trade and two were free agents. That is balanced team-building!

Of course, it’s easy to complete that great job when you can throw around almost a half a billion clams on three guys.

On the other hand, it’s equally true to say the Yankees don’t win this year if they don’t develop that terrific home-grown core of talent.

AJ: But…the Money HAS Been Key For Yanks

Big Mike, I agree with your main point:  That the Yankees found the wisdom to develop their own first-rate players like Derek Jeter.  Hell, to this day, I think Jeter is the best player I’ve ever seen.  But, in their past 13 years of tremendous success, the Yankees have OFTEN complemented their homegrown talent by signing incredibly talented free agents AND I want to bring you back to the present team.   I repeat:  The Yanks were the ONLY MLB team that had the capacity to spend $423.5 million on THREE players in one fell swoop – Sabathia, Burnett and Teixeira.   Some baseball teams’ total budgets fall way below that total for three guys — and these aren’t just any three.  If the Yanks win it all, one can argue powerfully that that $423.5 million made all the difference in getting the championship !  

Think about Sabathia alone.  He is, by far, the hottest post-season pitcher, and, very possibly, will carry the Yanks on his back to the title.

The Yanks acquired Damon because they were willing (or able) to offer him more than Boston – another year on a deal, for a bit more money.   They got Teixeira after offering him $10 million more than the Sox, and, for a bit longer contract.  I didn’t even get into the contracts for A-Rod (a super free-agent) and the others, but, I think we know the totals are staggering.

So, even if the Yankees have a good minor-league system – and they seem to have improved in that area – they have NEVER had to live with the same limits, or, in the same world, as most other teams.

Yes, the Yankees are like other teams in certain ways, but, then again, in other, very important ways, they’re NOT like any team in MLB.   Can you think of any team in your lifetime that had nine hitters in their lineup as good as this 2009 Yankee team?  The answer is NO.

Big Mike: The Yankees Aren’t Just Rich

The funny thing is, the Yanks’ current run of success (the mid-90s through the present day) began when they, at long last, began trusting the fruits of their own system.

Beginning in 1993 when Buck Showalter inserted the fleet, studious, shy and musically-inclined Bernabe (Figueroa) Williams of San Juan, Puerto Rico into the centerfield slot, the E-Empire started winning again after an uncharacteristic four-year stretch on the wrong side of .500. By 1996, when Joe Torre replaced the unbearable Showalter (to resurrect on old clubhouse canard, Buck’s asshole was so tight you couldn’t pull a needle out of it with a tractor) and sent Derek Jeter out to play short rather than the likes of Tony Fernandez and Randy Velarde, the Yankees had become a powerhouse.

The core of the World Series teams was that spectacular up-the-middle agglomeration. In addition to the aforementioned Williams and Jeter, the Yankees brought up Jorge Posada to catch. Oddly, the Yankees always seem to have trouble at second base, running through Mariano Duncan, Chuck Knoblauch and the woefully miscast Alfonso Soriano through the glory years. Even Robinson Cano labors under scathing criticism at times. No matter, these suspect second-sackers, for the most part, mashed the bejesus out of the ball.

What the Yankees finally learned was to create a foundation of home-grown talent and then pick and choose free agents at their leisure. Sure, they’ve always spent bazillions in the free agent market but there’s a difference between inking Steve Sax in the hope he’ll be a great first piece of the puzzle, and signing Roger Clemens as that crowning touch last piece.

As such, The New York Yankees have learned a lesson that has eluded the Chicago Cubs since the time of the mastodon. In fact, I’ll say the Cubs are the anti-Yankees.

Consider: the Cubs organization has not produce a top-of-the-line middle infielder or centerfielder since the mid-60s when Don Kessinger and Glenn Beckert popped onto the scene. No, Ryan Theriot is not top-of-the-line. He’s barely adequate as both a hitter and a glove man. And neither, really, was Shawon Dunston. Look, I loved the man — he was the hustlingest, most exciting player you could imagine, a great athlete and a joy to watch — but he was the dumbest ballplayer on the field. Dunston, along with Corey Patterson and Felix Pie, exemplified the sheer inability of the Cubs farm system to develop talent and teach the game. All three were superlative physical specimens whose sum total of baseball intellect was See ball; swing at same.

I’ll even go so far as to say neither Kessinger nor Beckert were among the best at their positions despite their numerous all-star designations. Kessinger had a godawful bat and Beckert, while occasionally capable with the lumber in his hands, inspired no comparisons to Rogers Hornsby. As for fielding range and the ability to turn the double play, both were, well, fair enough. We’re not talking Jeter and Cano here; more like Remy and Burleson.

By the way, Beckert once told me a great story about the time he and Ron Santo, his road roommate and best friend on the Cubs, got into a brawl in a Cincinnati go-go bar. The two were quenching their thirst after a night game when another customer began heckling them. Beckert told the guy to go fuck himself and the guy challenged the second baseman to a fight. Beckert (nicknamed Bruno because he was so tough) bloodied the guy’s face and then knocked him to the floor, unconscious. The cops were called but the bouncers secreted the ballplayers out a back door. Beckert ran like a thief, worried about possible scandal or even criminal charges. Santo, worried that his pal might have killed the guy, sneaked back in to check on him. Not much later, back at the hotel room, the phone rang. Beckert picked it up to hear Santo’s voice. “Don’t worry about a thing,” Santo chirped. “Everything’s been settled.” Beckert went back to the joint to find Santo and the guy drinking and backslapping like long lost friends.

Anyway, that’s all the Cubs have been able to offer us for the last century or so — cutesy or Runyonesque anecdotes about players beating up loudmouthed fans in go-go bars, others discovering unexpected erections while they’re on the field or Babe Ruth calling his shot. That’s all you get when your organization is incapable of producing and refining talent.