AJ: Theo Needs to Snap Out of Denial

Even though it’s early, I hope Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is busy brainstorming about changes rather than lingering in denial.  

I say “denial” because, yesterday, I read Epstein’s comments that the team simply has to play better baseball.  “What we can do is look inward, work our (rears) off, and return to the principles that have made us a solid organization, and have made these players who they are,” Epstein told the April 21st Boston Globe.  Epstein’s remarks implied the Sox have sufficient talent, and, if they, simply, start playing up to that talent, things will improve.

Well, I hate to say it, Theo, but, I don’t think your team has as much talent as you do, and, I’m not alone.  

The Red Sox hitting stinks so far.  They’ve had to struggle to win their past two games against the mediocre Texas Rangers after being swept by the Tampa Bay Rays.  Their lineup is filled with one mediocre hitter after another.  A recent caller to a radio show put it this way:  “We have (only) three hitters – three hitters!  He named Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez as the only good batters.  The rest are easy to pitch to, he said.

My view is close to that caller’s,  but, not quite as extreme.  Pedroia, Youkilis and Martinez do stand out because they can make contact in any count while most others in the lineup have been easy outs vs. half-decent pitching.   Nevertheless, what Theo Epstein won’t admit is that you can’t win a championship – or, for that matter, make the playoffs – when the newcomers to an already-weak-hitting lineup are Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron.   Not with David Ortiz fading fast, the departure of Jason Bay and benching (& planned trade of) Mike Lowell.  

You need a couple of stud hitters to compete in the AL East – guys like the Yanks’  Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez or the Rays’ Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria.   But, even though the Sox’ weak hitting led to the Angels sweeping them in the 2009 playoffs, Theo’s “answer” in the off-season was to sign pitcher John Lackey and the other newcomers, who he said would bolster the team’s “run prevention.”  I was among many who ripped that game plan, and said the Sox would lack hitting.

So, what will Theo and the Sox brass do now?  Will they acknowledge the team’s deficits, own up to their mistakes and start on a new path?  Or, will they stay stubborn and try to win with a depleted lineup while denying it’s bad all summer?

It’s interesting because Epstein and company have experienced only success since arriving about eight years ago.   They had a huge advantage of inheriting a team with Manny Ramirez and Pedro Martinez and Johnny Damon – and, with Theo’s signing of Ortiz, a platooning player for the Minnesota Twins in 2002,  turned into an unexpected, smash success that helped bring two World Series titles to Boston.  

Now, suddenly, Epstein must make very tough calls in the middle of this season — probably within weeks.  The first will be what to do with Ortiz, who is in the last year of his $13 million contract.  If Big Papi continues to not hit, it seems Epstein and manager Terry Francona will have to play him less and less until they’re forced to release him and eat his contract, or, to trade him somewhere – and, still eat his contract.   I say this because I cannot imagine Ortiz sitting on the bench happily for the rest of the year.

Next, Epstein has to decide if and how to commit to Victor Martinez beyond this year, when his contract expires.  Martinez has failed badly at throwing out (stealing) baserunners so far, and,  indications suggest he might not radically improve in this area.  If so, he could move to first base, but, then Youkilis would have to play third, and Adrian Beltre, one of his recruits, is there now.     

Epstein will have to decide what deal, if any, to make at the trading deadline.  Should the team give away players – like perhaps pitcher Clay Buchholz – to get a hitter like Adrian Gonzalez, or, perhaps concede the 2010 season and wait until the off-season to stock up on bats?

These are tough choices, especially in Boston, where fans in the past 25 years or so, have always expected at least a competitive team.  Right now, I think the current team will finish behind the Yankees and Rays and perhaps even slip to .500 status, but, its starting pitching seems good enough to prevent a losing record. 

Notice how gloomy I’m sounding after only three weeks?  Well, you need hitting to win, but the signs have been even worse!  Josh Beckett, who the Sox just signed to a new, four-year deal, has been quite unimpressive so far.  He’s 1-0 with 3 no-decisions and a 5.26 ERA, but, what’s more troubling is that he’s throwing with less velocity than the past few years.  (Beckett relies heavily on his fastball).  This has been unmentioned by Boston baseball writers so far, but, most of Beckett’s fastballs have been clocked at 93 mph – or a bit lower – rather than 96 mph – a common speed for Beckett in the past.  He’s continued his bad habit from late in 2009 of leaving fastballs over the plate, and, hitters are ready to smack them.   While Jon Lester has struggled in all three starts, I cannot believe he won’t find his stuff and be OK.  If not, the Sox record may plummet toward the Orioles’ results.

Another cause of concern beneath the radar?  Jonathan Papelbon.  While Papelbon has improved in his past two outings and increased his velocity a bit, his heater is lacking “giddy-up” — just as he lacked movement in the first part of 2009.   Last season, it took Papelbon a few months to find that “late life” in his fastball.  The difference now is that opposing hitters are much more ready to pounce on his heater.  Papelbon’s control has been so-so, as he often has had to throw repeated fastballs (fouled off) to put a hitter away rather than blowing the first few by someone — as he used to a few years ago.

Daniel Bard, the top-ranked setup pitcher now, has been fairly good, but, in only his second year, he still is learning, and, sometimes his fastballs catch too much of the plate, and, are hit hard.  Bard’s breaking stuff has improved, however.   The rest of the bullpen is a questionmark. 

So, how will Epstein and the Sox take the lemons and make lemonade somehow?  It’ll be interesting.  The odds appear stacked against this 2010 edition.

“We haven’t really done anything well, to be honest with you,” Epstein told yesterday’s Boston Globe.  “We’re not pitching, we’re not hitting, we’re not playing good defense. we’re not running the bases well.  So take your pick.”

OK, Theo.  I’ll add one more category:   The Red Sox GM has done a poor job assessing the talent on this 2010 team.    I hope he acquires more talent.

AJ: Don’t Give Me That “Run-Prevention” Rap

First, my congratulations to the Chicago Cubs for getting CLOSURE on the Milton Bradley era.   I think Big Mike made the difference in swaying Jim Hendry to get the deal done.

The latest Red Sox news is the collapse of the trade of Mike Lowell to the Texas Rangers.  The Rangers smartly insisted on checking Lowell’s thumb, and, found out yesterday that Lowell’s thumb requires surgery.  So, the trade is off and now, the Red Sox and Lowell face a very awkward circumstance.  Lowell may have to return to the team that was so anxious to get rid of him that they were willing to pay $9 million of his $12 million contrct for 2010.  Somehow, I think the Sox will find another way to move Lowell before spring training.   If I were Lowell, I’d want OUT of Boston.

So, where do the Sox stand now?  GM Theo Epstein has tried hard to sell the idea that by acquiring new players Marco Scutaro, Mike Cameron and pitcher John Lackey(and moving Lowell), the team will improve its “run prevention.”  I’ll be glad to see the Sox defense improve, but Theo’s ”pitch” about his off-season moves isn’t fooling any knowledgeable fans or baseball writers around New England.  If this team doesn’t get a first-rate slugger or two by April and goes with its existing personnel, its hitting will likely be WAY TOO WEAK to compete in the AL East.  The way Theo has talked recently, it’s as if the Red Sox played in the National League.

 Does Theo really think that Red Sox pitchers are going to be SO stellar that the lineup needs to produce only two runs a game?  Just think about what happened since October:  The Red Sox got swept by the Angels in the ALDS mainly because their hitting was absolutely pathetic – and that  was WITH Jason Bay and Mike Lowell.   Now, Bay appears gone and has been replaced, essentially, by Mike Cameron, an inconsistent .250 hitter.  Lowell will probably be gone.  When the season ended, many observers were saying the Sox needed to re-sign Bay or get a guy like Matt Holliday to replace him PLUS acquire another top-notch hitter.  Right now, it’s not clear how the Sox will get a quality slugger by April and it seems possible they’ll wait until the trading deadline in late July before trying to get Adrian Gonzalez or someone that good.   

Don’t get me wrong:  I give the Sox credit for being willing to spend all the dough on Lackey — even though I thought it was sort of crazy to sign him for FIVE years.  But, I’ve never bought this idea that if you have excellent pitching and good defense, you can get by with only a mediocre offense.  It doesn’t work that way when you’re playing 18 games vs. both the NY Yankees or the Tampa Bay Rays, for instance.  Both of those teams can often put up a minimum of a few runs off even the Sox best pitchers.  Will the Sox be able to produce more than a few runs against those or other teams?  For all of 2009, the answer was NO.  The Sox beat up on the bad pitching they faced on bad teams like the Orioles, but, they were feeble against good arms – particularly breaking pitches.  So, that’s why I keep harping on their need for hitting.  It’s not just a “serious” need.  It’s an “urgent” need.  Casey Kotchman, Cameron, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Scutaro and an aging Big Papi don’t sound that tough a group — and that’s six out of the nine starters, leaving only Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and Victor Martinez.

OK, I’ll try to take a break from my obsession about the Sox weak hitting.  It’s just too bad the Padres appear unwilling to trade A-Gon until after the season starts.

I, too, value good defense on a baseball team.  I’ve just watched too many AL East games that are decided by a two-run homer in the 6th or 7th inning – even games that have been played with terrific fielding!  A team needs balance – with some strength in hitting, pitching and defense. 

Now, the Red Sox are in the extraordinary position of having probably the best pitching rotation in baseball – but, they don’t have Manny Ramirez, the old David Ortiz, or, it appears, Jason Bay or Mike Lowell. 

You have to score more than a few runs a game to win the wild card or top spot in the AL East.  Theo Epstein knows that.   I think he’s just trying to keep the fan base calm while we all wait and wait for him to acquire a slugger.

Or, Theo may just have some denial about the Red Sox hitting ability.

Big Mike: My Heart Bleeds For You, AJ

Poor AJ. His boys won 95 games in 2009. Apparently they were the wrong kind of wins. Or something.

I would have sawed off my right pinkie for 95 wins (not my left pinkie, though, since I’m trying to learn how to play the guitar.)

Are your fears for the Flaming Hose really warranted? Ortiz’s RBI were “quiet”? Bay “put up terrific numbers but… he’s a bit overrated”? Papelbon “gave up walks or hits and often had difficulty finishing batters off”? Ellsbury “can be pitched to by better pitchers”? Sheesh!

Whaddya want 105 wins?

I suppose the answer yes. Who wouldn’t want 105 wins? But no one — repeat, no one — can construct a team with the expectation that they’ll win 105. Not even the colossus that occupies new Yankee Stadium won 105 (of course, they did knock off 103 opponents but let’s not quibble.)

Have the Red Sox and their fans become — dare I say it — too demanding? It seems a short half decade ago, il Nazione del Calzini Rossi would have been thrilled to string up 95 fascisti. Now, 95 wins — bah! A bag of shells.

Were I the majordomo of the Sox, I wouldn’t worry too much about Papelbon’s walks or hits (his WHIP stood at a fine 1.15.) If Bay’s putting up terrific numbers, I’d say, Keep it up, Jason my boy. As for Ellsbury’s problems with better pitchers? Um, I’d guess the reason those guys are “better pitchers” is because they get most guys out, period.

I would fret a little about David Ortiz. He’s now 34 years old and weighs 230 pounds — at least that’s what the Red Sox web site claims. His bathroom scale might dissent. His best years are like a big ass — behind him. Then again, most AL teams would drool over the prospect of their DHs putting up mediocre Ortiz numbers. The Boston club really ain’t got much to worry about does it?

Sometimes fans and even GMs can overreact. Take last off-season. After the Cubs had led the National League with 97 wins, they went out and jumped in front of that speeding bus from LA. Fans boo-hooed as if the Cubs had gone sub-.500. Lou Piniella suggested that maybe the team needed a left handed bat to counteract teams loading up with righthanders against them — as the Dodgers did. Hungry Jim Hendry promptly turned over 40 percent of his roster, mainly in an effort to afford the $30M/3-year deal he bestowed upon Milton Bradley.

Pardon me while I have a seizure. Gurgle, gulp, ack-ack-ack. The memory of the Bradley signing is now a lesion in my brain that occasionally causes electrical disturbances among my remaining several hundred neurons. Ah — all better now.

Hendry dumped Mark DeRosa, Kerry Wood and Jason Marquis, all in an effort to squeeze Gameboard into the budget. The 2009 team could have used a nice fifth starter like Marquis (who, by the way, went to the all-star game.) They would have benefitted greatly from DeRosa’s 23 home runs, especially in Aramis Ramirez’s absence. Wood? Well, he stunk the joint up with the Tribe but he still was better than the execrable Kevin Gregg.

Be careful what you wish for, AJ. What’s Theo Epstein to do? Look for a centerfielder? Yeah, you could do better than young Jacoby. You could grab Carlos Beltran from the Mets and hope he thrives in Fenway. But at what cost?

Should Theo let Bay or Drew walk? Whaddya gonna do then? Play Joey Gathright and Rocco Baldelli?

In terms of planning, a good GM walks the tightrope. He (or she — Kim Ng, I hear, is in the running for the Padres job) can’t rely on an unchanging roster year after year. He also can’t swap his assets like so many baseball cards.

The Big Mike Philosophy of Building a Baseball Team, taught at the better universities around the country, holds that the GM should build his team with an aim to win 90 games. If your team is a consistent 90-game-winner, you’ll be battling for the division title every single year. And while the team may occasionally dip to 84-78, it’ll just as often rise to 96-66. That’s definite Champagne territory.

Now you may say 96 wins is fine for the Minnesota Twins or the Colorado Rockies but the Red Sox share a division with the Yankees. Okay. Let the Yanks spend $200M every year and win the East. It’s no dishonor to sneak into the playoffs via the Wild Card. In fact, the Red Sox of 2004 rode that ticket to their first World Series win in 10,000 years (that ancient triumph over the hated Jericho Palms!)

Just because New York assembled an all-star team and danced to the division title doesn’t mean Theo (and you) should panic. Theo (and you) should start planning for a future without Big Papi but the current lineup built around Pedroia, Bay, Youkilis and Martinez (assuming everybody’s re-signed) is scarier than a Glenn Beck commentary.

Boston is a lock to win at least 90 in 2010. Even if David Ortiz’s bat continues to soften and Josh Beckett’s back continues to throb, the Red Sox, along with the Yankees and Angels, will be the cream of the league. You worry too much.

Me? I’ve got Bradley in right field, Carlos Zambrano on the mound, and a century-plus of losing on my mind. I worry.